Climate Change Articles

Climate Change Articles
Effects of dense planting with less basal N fertilization on rice yield, N use efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions.
Author:  Zhu, X., Wang, X., Li, Z., Deng, A., Zhang, Z., Zhang, J. and Zhang, W.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.17 (6), 2016--Pages 1091--1100
Abstract: Rice cropping innovations for high yield with high N use efficiency (NUE) and low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are significant in ensuring food security and coping with climate change. The objective of this study was to investigate the comprehensive effects of dense planting with less basal N application (DR) on rice yield, NUE and GHG emissions. Field experiments were conducted at three sites in China: Shenyang, Danyang and Jinxian representing annual single rice cropping system, wheat-rice cropping system and double rice cropping system, respectively. Four planting densities with 25, 50, 75 and 100 \% higher each time correspondingly with about 25, 50, 75 and 100 \% less in basal N rate (i.e., DR1, DR2, DR3 and DR4 correspondingly) relative to traditional cropping for high yield (CK). Across three tested sites, the DR1 mode showed a large potential of NUE enhancement by 19.6 \% and GHG emissions mitigation by 12.2 \% at area- and yield-scaled with similar rice yield compared to the CK. However, further increase in planting density and decrease in basal N application caused a significant reduction in rice yield with a large increase in GHG emissions. Our results will provide important reference to rice cropping innovations for the integrated goals of food security, environmental health and climate change mitigation in China.
Keywords: Climate change, Food security, Nitrogen fertilization, Planting density, Resource use efficiency, Rice production
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Profiling disasters in Kenya and their causes.
Author: Huho, J. M., Mashara, J. N. and Musyimi, P. K.
Journal: Academic Research International,Vol.7 (1), 2016--Pages 290--305
Abstract: Disasters occur naturally or are caused by human activities. Most of the disasters experienced occur naturally with hydro-meteorological disasters leading. Human activities aggravate their occurrence and intensity. Global trends indicate that both natural and man-made disasters are on the increase and the more people are being affected. The most vulnerable are the poor who are exposed to various disaster risks. Most of these people are found in the developing countries where the level of disaster preparedness, resources and knowhow is still low. Kenya, like other developing countries of the world, has her populace vulnerable to disaster risks resulting in deaths and loss of property worth millions. About 70 \% of the disasters are hydrometeorological in nature particularly droughts and floods. Other common disasters include road accidents, fire tragedies, collapsing buildings and disease outbreaks. Poverty has been referred to many as the spring board of many disasters in Kenya. Poverty has led to emergence of vices such as corruption, ignorance of law, political manipulation, inadequate resources and destruction of environment which leads to climate change. Culture and beliefs have also been associated with vulnerability to disaster risks. Therefore, to reduce the risks wealth creation will be vital for the country.
Keywords: Disaster risks, Man-made disasters, Natural disasters, Poverty
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Characterization of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) germplasm for drought tolerance using seedling traits and molecular markers.
Author: Hassan, H. M., Azhar, F. M., Khan, A. A., Basra, S. M. A. and Hussain, M.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.17 (6), 2016--Pages 1213--1218
Abstract: Drought tolerance is the major area of thrust nowadays, due to the water scarcity and climate change scenario, around the globe. Looking for the novel cotton germplasm tolerant to drought is an important breeding objective of the major breeding programs. On the basis of these grounds, 42 cotton varieties were evaluated for their genetic potential to perform under limited water conditions (60 \% field capacity). The germplasm was subjected to the seedling stage drought stress, to observe genetic variation within germplasm for various traits related with drought stress viz. shoot length (cm), root length (cm), excise leaf water loss (ELWL) and relative water contents (RWC). These traits were used as stress indicators and significant variation was observed for these estimates. Among the seven tolerant accessions, DPL-26 and 149F were identified as the highly tolerant due to their least SSI estimates for most of the characters studied. Likewise among the susceptible lines, FH-1000 and NF-801 were identified as highly susceptible. Our studies showed the presence of genetic variability for the trait of interest and it exhibits its potential for exploitation in the future breeding for drought tolerance.
Keywords: Drought, SSR similarity matrix, Seedling characters, Stress susceptibility index, Variability
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Community forestry and livelihood in Nepal: a review.
Author: Bijaya, G. C. D., Cheng, S., Xu, Z., Bhandari, J., Wang, L. and Liu, X.
Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant sciences,Vol.26 (1), 2016--Pages 1--12
Abstract: This review paper is designed to demonstrate how community forestry has played an important role in the livelihood improvement of poor people in the rural areas of Nepal. The Community Forestry Program in Nepal has been a successful model for participatory action oriented especially in environmental governance and community-based forest management in developing countries which encompasses well-defined policies, institutions and practices. The program addresses the twin goals of forest conservation on one hand and livelihood improvement on the other hand. It is well known that there is a great diversity among resource users in terms of access, use and control over community forestry but still it is playing a large role in improving livelihood, increasing forest resources and also mitigating climate change. Promoting community forest management in Nepal can be an effective policy instrument for poverty eradication and improvement of overall living standards like in many developing countries. There is always a problem of capture of the benefits by the elites in each community, so increase in the level of awareness is always necessary to ensure the involvement of disenfranchised people where their needs are met, so giving access and management rights over forest resources to local communities is expected to enhance livelihoods and other benefits of these impoverished people. Policy-makers, experts and the local communities should be involved in developing and improving the benefits obtained from community forestry for the benefits of local people. Some challenges still remain, including elite capture, social disparity, inequitable benefit-sharing and exclusion of poor and marginalized users faced by the community forestry, local users, government officials and other stakeholders which should be solved soon to show the profound impact of community forestry management, utilization and conservation on a sustainable basis.
Keywords: Challenges, Community forestry, Local users, Participatory
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Role of agricultural extension services in adaptation to climate change in highlands of Kaghan valley, Pakistan.
Author: Safdar, U., Shahbaz, B., Ali, T., Khan, I. A., Luqman, M. and Ali, S.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences,Vol.51 (4), 2015--Pages 1095--1100
Abstract: The mountainous areas are generally considered among the least developed and fragile regions. Climate change has exacerbated the effect on livelihood of the mountainous areas, particularly small farmers who are striving hard to adopt the farming practices in accordance with the climate change. Agricultural advisory service in the mountainous areas has always been challenge for the extension workers especially in context of climate change. This paper examined the role of agricultural extension in adaptation to climate change in Kaghan valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used for the purpose of data collection. The paper argues that agri. extension department can play a crucial role by creating awareness regarding adaption of best practices regarding climate change, deforestation and planting of trees. There is also need of launching campaign to educate the farmers and to build their resilience to cope with the negative effects of climate change.
Keywords: agricultural extension services, climate change, highlands, Kaghan, Pakistan
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Impact of climate change on agriculture in north west Pakistan and adaptation strategies of farming community: A case study of Kaghan valley.
Author: Safdar, U., Shahbaz, B., Ali, T. and Ali, S.
Journal: Journal of Agricultural Research,Vol.52 (4), 2015--Pages 597--606
Abstract: Agricultural production is susceptible to weather and climate. Pakistan is also facing the severe impact of climate change which results into floods and low agricultural production. Hilly and mountainous regions of Northern Khyber Pakhtun Khwa (KPK) province are more vulnerable to climate change. However, little information is available on the impact of climate change on agriculture in the mountainous regions of KPK. This paper illustrates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Kaghan Valley. A study was conducted in the Institute of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad during the year 2012. Kaghan Valley of district Mansehra of KPK, Pakistan was selected as study area. The respondents were selected through multistage random sampling. The results showed that majority (65.8 \% ) of respondents belonged to middle age (35-50 years). The education level of respondents was low as more than half (55.83 \% ) of them were found illiterate. The results showed that the most significant impact of climate change was high temperature (M=3.85), high rate of precipitation (M=3.75), pattern of rainfall and temperature (M=3.75), deforestation (M=3.61) and floods (M=3.51). A large majority (67.5 \% ) of respondents started cultivating multiple crops as adaptation strategy against climate change. It is recommended that heat and moisture tolerant varieties should be introduced to conserve agriculture against the drastic impact of climate change. There is need of creating awareness among the people for their capacity building to cope with climate changes. Alternate source of fuel must be provided to the people to conserve forest and ultimately to reduce impacts of climate change.
Keywords: Climate Change, Agriculture, Rural Development, Kagahn, Pakistan
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Evaluation of different integrated pest management modules to control Helicoverpa for adaptation to climate change.
Author: Noor-Ul-Ane, M., Arif, M. J., Gogi, M. D. and Khan, M. A.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.17 (3), 2015--Pages 483--490
Abstract: The study was designed to investigate the impact of water stress on varietal response to cotton cultivars, Helicoverpa armigera and its associated entomophagous insects [Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens) and Habrobracon hebetor (Say)] as well as the feasibility of different Integrated Pest Management (IPM) modules for management of H. armigera. For this purpose, five drought resistant cotton genotypes i.e., FH-941, FH-187, FH-4243, FH-1000 and FH-207 were sown under irrigated and drought conditions. Larval population of H. armigera was low on water stressed plants (0.32 larvae/plant) as compared to irrigated plants (0.45 larvae/plant). In contrast, H. armigea caused more damage to stressed plants (16.90 \% ) than irrigated plants (14.58 \% ). FH-4243 was evaluated as resistant genotypes on the basis of less percent damage by H. armigera for both irrigated and drought conditions with value of 13.24 and 09.59 \% , respectively. Population of C. carnea was statistically similar under both for irrigated (0.20 larvae/plant) and drought conditions (0.19 larvae/plant). Unlikely, low parasitism of H. armigera by H. hebetor was observed under drought (14.64 \% ) than irrigated condition (20.79 \% ). Treatment involving integration of Neemosal, C. carnea and H. hebetor demonstrated 0.09 larvae/plant and provided maximum control of H. armigera; whereas alone application of Neemosal proved least effective against H. armigera (0.32 larvae/plant). On the basis of cost benefit ratio (CBR), module-15 involving integrated implementation of Spinosad, Neemosal, C. carnea and H. hebetor explained highest yield (1639.52 kg/ha) and CBR (1: 6.15) and proved economical and effective IPM module. In conclusion, water stress condition had positive impact on H. armigera feeding-damage (bi-trophic interaction) but had negative impact on parasitism. Integration of bio-control agents, botanicals and reduced-risk insecticides would be more cost-effective than their alone or two-level integration.
Keywords: integrated pest management, Helicoverpa, climate change., agriculture
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Physical and morphological markers for adaptation of drought-tolerant wheat to arid environments.
Author: Noorka, I. R. and Silva, J. A. T. D.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences,Vol.51 (4), 2015--Pages 943--952
Abstract: The threat of climate change has instilled a demand for multi-faceted genetic diversity coupled with resourceful tools and technologies to attain biotic and abiotic resistance in crops. The present study was designed to investigate and compare common physiological and morphological traits under normal and water-stressed conditions. Seven selected (Pakistani, Indian and CIMMYT) water stress-tolerant (WST) genotypes were crossed with seven local water stress-susceptible (WSS) lines using a line × tester mating approach. The hybrids, together with parents, were sown in two different environments. Combining ability effects determined the behavior of both parents as well as offspring and allowed the best combiners for different traits to be selected. Different traits showed additive and non-additive types of gene action under both environmental conditions. The present study concluded that genotypes Nesser, Dharwar Dry, Inqilab-91, among others, served as good combiners while Bakhar-2002 × 9247, Dharwar Dry × 9021, Bakhar-2002 × 9244, and Nesser × 9244 are promising cross combinations. Regarding grain yield, genotype 9252 and Dharwar Dry performed best under normal irrigation and water-stressed conditions, respectively. A change in water provision resulted in a shift in gene action, broad sense heritability and proportional share that each trait contributed. When these traits were pooled, it was possible to discriminate between WST and WSS genotypes and, through line × tester experiments, develop drought- and water stress tolerant lines based on morphological markers under changing climatic conditions.
Keywords: climate change, Physical markers, morphological markers, drought-tolerant wheat, arid environments.
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Impact of climate change on livestock composition in Pothwar region, Pakistan.
Author: Naheed, S., Raza, I., Hassan, T., Anwar, M. Z. and Fatima, A.
Journal: : Science, Technology and Development,Vol.34 (4), 2015--Pages 270--273
Abstract: A research study was planned to assess the impact of climate change on livestock composition during 2014, in Pothwar region of Pakistan. Data regarding this experiment were collected through questionnaire by queering 61 respondents. Paired t-test was used to check the difference between livestock composition in present and before 10 years. The results showed that paired sample t-test of livestock in which difference values for mean, standard deviation and standard error of mean for cattle are -0.525, 1.840 and 0.236, respectively, having T-value, equal to 2.23 and p-value, equal to 0.03, which is significant at 1 \% . Similarly, buffalo group indicated difference in values of mean, standard deviation and standard error of mean -0.607, 2.193 and 0.281, respectively. The paired T-statistic also shows significant difference with t-value, p-value less than 0.05, which show significance level. Likewise goat group pointed out difference values of mean, standard deviation and standard error of mean are -0.836, 2.544 and 0.326 respectively that comprises p-value equal to 0.01, which is significant at 1 \% .
Keywords:  Climate change, Composition, Livestock, Paired t-test, Pothwar, Standard deviation
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Identification of local climate change adaptation strategies for water management in districts Attock and Chakwal, Pakistan.
Author: : Habib, N., Anwer, M. Z., Naheed, S. and Hassan, T.
Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.34 (4), 2015--Pages 255--259
Abstract: Climate change is predicted to have the main impact on agriculture, economy and livelihood of the populations of under-developed world and mainly in rainfed area of Pakistan, which generally called as Pothwar region. To improve the knowledge in this respect and guide policy making for adequate and relevant adaptation strategies, 60 farmers were interviewed in two districts, namely Attock and Chakwal. Farmers were asked closed and open-ended questions about farm activities, farmer climate knowledge and perceived climate change and adaptation strategies for water management. About 68 \% of the respondents perceived that Climate Change (CC) resulted in increase in temperature and 55 \% agreed on low rainfall in the study area. About 81.66 \% respondents were agreed on water stress in the study area. About 55 \% perceived that climate change reduced yield of crops and almost 75 \% respondents were rely on only rain water for crops. Copping strategies for these issues were that respondents favored the planting of drought resistant/tolerant crop varieties, planting of many different types of crops (mixed-cropping) and planting of pest/disease resistant/tolerant crop varieties. The farmers agreed that straw mulching of crops to reduce water loss (33.02 \% ) and increase in use of organic manure (57.13 \% ) are coping strategies to reduce or alleviate the effect of climate change.
Keywords:  Attock, Chakwal, Climate change, Pakistan, Water management
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Climate change and its impacts on growth of C (Pinus wallichiana) in Murree forest division, Pakistan.
Author: Bajwa, G. A., Shahzad, M. K. and Satti, H. K.
Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.34 (1), 2015--Pages 27--34
Abstract: Climate change and its impacts were assessed on growth of Blue pine, Pinus wallichiana in Murree Forest Division. Change in temperature (maximum, minimum, mean) and precipitation was assessed for time period of 1963-2012 at 50×50 km2 (0.5°×0.5°). Growth of P. wallichiana was measured in terms of ring-width, intra-ring early and late wood formation. The regime of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and mean temperature were estimated and found 26.45±0.08°C, 13.40±0.08°C and 19.90±0.07°C, respectively, while the precipitation regime was 1148.79±32.87 mm/annum. An increase of 0.60, 1.27 and 0.98°C was observed in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and mean temperature, respectively. Precipitation increased to 28.88 \% during time period of 50 years. The mean ring-width, intra-ring early and late wood formation was 1.05 mm, 66.2 and 33.8 \% , respectively. The ring-width and intra-ring late wood formation increased by 5.09 and 2.57 \% , respectively, while the intra-ring early wood formation decreased by 1.28 \% . The impact of minimum temperature was significant (0.05) on the ring-width. There was a positive but non-significant correlation between temperature (maximum, minimum, mean) and positive and highly significant (pP. wallichiana.
Keywords: Climate change, Murree, Pakistan, blue Pine,
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Snow cover area change assessment in 2003 and 2013 using MODIS data of the upper indus basin, Pakistan.
Author:  Atif, I., Mahboob, M. A. and Iqbal, J.
Journal: Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences,Vol.48 (2), 2015--Pages 117--128
Abstract: Snow cover area (SCA) is an important component of the solid water reservoir in the catchment. The study of snow trends is essential for managing water resources and for understanding regional climate change. Changes in the snow budget have socioeconomic and environmental implications for agriculture, water-based industries, environment, land management, water supplies; and many other areas related with snow melt water resources. To date, however, only a few scientific studies are available to analyze the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The basic objective of this study was to map the change assessment of SCAof UIB in 2003 and 2013. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were retrieved for the period of 2003 and 2013. Three different digital image processing techniques, including normalized difference snow index (NDSI), satellite image classification and band threshold values were applied to assess the SCA. The results show that snow accumulation typically starts from the beginning of October and continues up to mid of March. From end March, the snow starts melting until it is reduced to a minimum in September. A comparison of snow cover of 2003 and 2013 clearly indicates that the snow accumulation period has shifted and anomaly was observed in the start of November. In 2013, snow cover decreases by almost 49 \% area during the period 30 Sep to 15 Oct, whereas it increases by 133 \% area in the first sixteen days of November i.e. 1-16 Nov, as compared to the year 2003. Overall, the correlation between the year 2003 and 2013 SCAis found to be 0.87, which is highly positive correlation.
Keywords: Climate change, MODIS data, NDSI, Snow cover, Upper Indus Basin
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Study of frequency of anomalies in arrival of late or early monsoon and western disturbances due to climate change in Bahawalpur city from 1960-2012.
Author: : Anwar, M. M. and Ilyas, S
Journal: : Sindh University Research Journal,Vol.47 (1), 2015--Pages 49--52
Abstract: Monsoon is the major system that brings heavy rainfall in South East Asia. Its timely arrival brings prosperity to the inhabitants while its delay or early arrival may cause disastrous droughts or floods. Global warming is disturbing the climatic factors and monsoon rainfall is not indifferent. Data of average monthly rainfall for 52 years from 1960-2012 was collected from the Meteorological Department of Pakistan. Global warming is agreed upon the phenomenon, hence its effects on the rainfall pattern is sure as these two variables are interlinked. This study is going to focus on the anomalies occur in rainfall pattern of monsoon and winter rainfall called Western Disturbances. This single variable was plotted decade wise to note the number of extreme rainfall on decadal time scale using an Excel worksheet. Two decades were plotted on one graph and summer and winter months are plotted on different graphs. At least one conspicuous peak value can be seen in each decade in both winter and summer rainfall. The findings of this study reveal that in the last 3 decades the anomalies are more frequent than the previous decades.
Keywords: monsoon, climate change, Bahawalpur, Pakistan
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Analysis of streamflow data for trend detection on major rivers of the indus: analysis of stream Basin.
Author: Naseem-Ur-Reman, M. S. Khattak, Sharif, M. and Khan, M. A.
Journal: Journal of Himalayan Earth Sciences,Vol.48 (1), 2015--Pages 99--111
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to evaluate discernible long term trends in stream flows of four major rovers of Pakistan, namely Kabul, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. For each river, the first hydrological station, where flow rate is measured after its entry to Pakistan, has been selected. The stations, thus selected on Kabul, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are Warsak, Tarbela, Mangla and Marala, respectively. The average monthly flow data for each of the four stations was collected from Irrigation department, Lahore for the period 1962-2011. was conducted using the1962-2011. The annual as well as seasonal stream flows analysis of average monthly stream flows was conducted using the stream Mann Kendall non-parametric test. For each case, the trend slopes were estimated using the Sens slope method. A trend free pre-whitening (TFPW) approach was used to account for the auto correlation in the time flows and decreasing trends for summer series. Results indicate increasing trends for winter stream flows. For the spring season, Warsak exhibited decreasing trend, whereas the other stations showed a decreasing trends. Annual stream flow had a decreasing trend at all stations. The trends identified in this study may be partially attributed attributed to the effects of climate change in Pakistan.
Keywords: Climate change, Stream, Trends,
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Assessment of climate change at spatiao-temporal scales and its impact on stream flows in Mangla watershed.
Author: Ghulam-Nabi andHabib-Ur-Rehman, M. Yaseen and Latif, M.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences,Vol.15 (2), 2015--Pages 17--36
Abstract: The Mangla reservoir was built for irrigation as well as power generation. The variability in climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) at spatial and temporal scales affects the streamflows. To consider the hydro-climatic unpredictability, 50 years (1961-2010) record was scrutinized. The time series were divided in two periods of 25 years each (1961-1985, 1st and 1986- 2010, 2nd). Results of the current investigation revealed that the mean temperature in annual as well as in spring, winter and autumn seasons has been increased however the summer temperature has decreased for the period 1961-2010. Declining trends were observed in annual temperature for the 1st period whereas 2nd period showed more warming. The results of annual and seasonal precipitation indicate that trends in the 1st period were not consistent while in the 2nd period trends were decreasing in all basins. The annual streamflows in rivers Kanshi, Poonch, Kunhar, Neelum, and Jhelum (at Azad Pattan) have decreased upto 41, 5, 34, 24 and 45 \% respectively with increase of 1 oC annual mean temperature for the period 1961-2010. On the other hand, trends in annual mean temperature showed cooling trends for the 1stperiod and this yield increased streamflow for rivers Kanshi, Kunhar, Neelum and Jhelum upto 21, 11, 4 and 10 \% respectively. In 2nd period, the annual mean temperature has increased in all the basins. The annual streamflows in rivers Kanshi, Poonch, Kunhar, Neelum, and Jhelum have decreased upto 46, 32, 43, 43 and 51 \% respectively. In 2nd period the streamflows in rivers Kanshi, Poonch, Kunhar, Neelum, and Jhelum have decreased upto 35, 37, 5, 11 and 11 \% in spring season with increase of 1 oC temperature. Divergent to this, there was a reverse situation in the 1stperiod for the spring season. The summer mean temperature has been decreased upto 1oC and the streamflows in rivers Poonch, Kunhar, Neelum and Jhelum have decreased upto 2, 11, 11 and 33 \% per decade respectively for the whole period. Similarly in the 2nd period the streamflows have reduced upto 29, 32, 12, 46 and 36 \% in rivers Kanshi, Poonch, Kunhar, Neelum and Jhelum respectively. The trends, caused by climate change, have impacts on the streamflows that should be considered by the water managers for the better water management in a water scarce country like Pakistan.
Keywords:  climate change, spatiao-temporal scales, stream flows, Mangla watershed.
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Climate variability impacts on rice crop production in Pakistan.
Author: Abdul-Saboor, U. Shakoor, Baig, I. and Abdul-Rahman, A. Afzal
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research,Vol.28 (1), 2015--Pages 19--27
Abstract: The climate variability has affected the agriculture production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate changes are believed to have declining effects towards crop production in Pakistan. This study carries an empirical investigation of the effects of climate change on rice crop of Pakistan by employing Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables from 1980 to 2013 has been used. Results confirmed that rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production. Variation in mean minimum temperature brought about seven percent increase in rice productivity as shown by Variance Decomposition. Mean precipitation and mean temperature would increase rice production but simulations scenarios for 2030 confirmed that much increase in rainfall and mean temperature in long run will negatively affect rice production in future. It is therefore important to follow adequate policy action to safeguard crop productions from disastrous effects. Development of varieties resistant to high temperatures as well as droughts will definitely enhance resilience of rice crop in Pakistan.
Keywords: Climate, rice crop, Pakistan, agricultiure
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CO2 enrichment improves recovery of growth and photosynthesis from drought and nitrogen stress in maize.
Author:  Zong, Y. and Shangguan, Z.
Journal:  Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.46 (2), 2014--Pages 407--415
Abstract: In the context of the increasing risk of extreme drought as a result of climate change and increasing CO2 in the future of northwest China, evaluation of crops' ability to recover and survive droughts requires further attention. To test the effects of re-watering on plants suffering water and nitrogen limitations in the presence of elevated CO2, maize (Zea mays) was planted to experience combined elevated CO2 (380 or 750 $\mu$molmol-1, climate chamber), water stress (15 \% PEG-6000) and nitrogen limitation (5 or 15mM N in Hoagland solutions) and then re-watered at three levels (300mL, 600mL, 900mL per pot of distilled water). When plants were re-watered, drought stressed and N limited plants with ambient CO2 increased their water content more than that of elevated CO2, while the enhancement of growth rate were negatively related to the increasing plant water content. Elevated CO2 could help re-watered seedlings to have higher photosynthetic capacity (Fv/Fm, $\Phi$PSII, Pn,Pn/Tr and Pn/Gs) and new leaf growth under low water content, apart from nitrogen deficiency. The results demonstrated that elevated CO2 could help drought stressed seedlings to maintain higher carbon assimilation rates under low water content, as a result to improve leaf water use efficiency.
Keywords: CO2 enrichment, photosynthesis, drought, nitrogen stress, maize.
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Temporal analysis of temperature trends in the metropolitan area of Lahore, Pakistan.
Author: Zia, S., Shirazi, S. A., Bhalli, M. N. and Alam, R.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Science,Vol.66 (1), 2014--Pages 83--87
Abstract: The impact of temperature change has been analyzed which has diverse effects on global, regional, and local scale. It is a significant step for planning climate change strategy. This research aims to investigate temperature trends on seasonal and annual basis for five decades (1962-2012) of Lahore metropolitan area (LMA) which covers an area of about 2306 sq. km. In order to detect trends in temperature time series, linear regression test of parametric statistics has been applied. Temperature variables included mean (MAT), mean maximum (MMxT), and mean minimum (MMiT), which were considered for analyzing both on annual and seasonal basis. Anomalies of temperature were plotted and it was observed that percent of annual mean temperature, and mean minimum temperature were increased at the rate of 2.5 and 5.5 percent per year, respectively. While, Mean Maximum temperature had decreased at the rate of 0.6 percent a year. Each year was divided into four seasons, (a) winter, (b) hot-dry spring, (c) monsoon and (d) post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons, showed an increasing temperature trend during eight months of year except in June to September where non-significant temperature trends were observed.
Keywords: Temporal analysis, temperature, metropolitan, Lahore
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Water and Maize: water conservation through Stem reserves mobilization.
Author: Taufiqullah and Noorka, I. R.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Applied Sciences,Vol.6 (2), 2014--Pages 155--163
Abstract: Food security in the world is challenged by increasing food demand and provision of less supply mainly due to declining water availability. Maize is the third most important world cereal crop. It is one of the major components of human food and animal feed thus grown for both grain and forage purposes in human as well as livestock sector. The demand for maize has also increased significantly due to rapid development of poultry and animal feed industries. Combining ability analysis provides information for characters related to drought tolerance. Stem reserve can be exploited to combat water stress condition. To achieve this after 14 days of anthesis, plants were defoliated followed by complete plant surface bleaching by spray of commercial market bleach diluted with tap water 4 times solution. The total assimilation of photo-synthetase in the seeds was result of remobilization of reserves in different parts of the plant. The best combinations among diverse genotypes with good amount of stem reserve mobilization in the face of climate change and scarce water may be the best success to ensure food security and law and order throughout the world.
Keywords: Maize, water conservation, Stem reserves mobilization
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Emission and role of biogenic volatile organic compounds in biosphere.
Author:  Saleem, A. R., Waqar-Un-Nisa, T. Mahmood and Aslam, M.
Journal: Science Vision,Vol.19 (1-2), 2014--Pages 69--78
Abstract: Plants are an essential part of the biosphere. Under the influence of climate change, plants respond in multiple ways within the ecosystem. One such way is the release of assimilated carbon back to the atmosphere in form of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which are produced by plants and are involved in plant growth, reproduction, defense and other . These compounds are emitted from vegetation into the atmosphere under different environmental situations. Plants produce an extensive range of BVOCs, including isoprenoids, sequisterpenes, aldehydes, alcohols and terpenes in different tissues above and below the ground. The emission rates vary with various environmental conditions and the plant growth stage in its life span. BVOCs are released under biotic and abiotic stress changes, like heat, drought, land-use changes, higher atmospheric CO concentrations, increased UV radiation and insect or disease attack. Plants emit BVOCs in atmosphere in order to avoid stress, and adapt to harsh circumstances. These compounds also have a significant role in plant-plant interaction, communication and competition. BVOCs have the ability to alter atmospheric chemistry; they readily react with atmospheric pollutant gases under high temperature and form tropospheric ozone, which is a potent air pollutant for global warming and disease occurrence. BVOCs may be a cause of photochemical smog and increase the stay of other GHGs in the atmosphere. Therefore, further study is required to assess the behavior of BVOCs in the biosphere as well as the atmosphere.
Keywords: BVOCs, Abiotic, Biotic, Atmosphere and Stress.
Citedy By: 0
Phenotypic response of rice (Oryza sativa) genotypes to variable moisture stress regimes.
Author: Sabar, M. and Arif, M.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.16 (1), 2014--Pages 32--40
Abstract: Water stress in a climate change scenario is one of the major threats for sustainable rice productivity. A certain level of drought can cause considerable yield losses. Combining drought resistance with yield potential is the most promising challenge for the rice breeders. The present study was conducted using eight rice genotypes of diverse origin to explore their response against variable drought stress. Two water stress treatments for one week and two weeks were given sixty days after seeding. Significant differences for genotypes and water stress levels were observed from phenotypic performance. Correlation studies indicated a positive and significant association of paddy yield with spikelet fertility and 1000 grain weight. Rice genotype IR55419-04 showed least effect of water stress treatments for 1000 grain weight i.e., 6.28 \% and 10.44 \% reduction, spikelet fertility percentage with 19.99 \% and 40.01 \% reduction and the paddy yield per plant of 24.97 \% and 51.35 \% under one week and two weeks water stress, respectively. On contrary, Basmati 2000 and Super Basmati were found to be the most sensitive to drought for paddy yield with 92.8 \% and 91.5 \% reduction under severe water stress given for two weeks, respectively. The existence of enough amount of genetic variability might be a result of diverse source of the present stock. Rice strain ‘IR55419-04' showed the potential for drought stress tolerance amongst all the tested genotypes and needs attention of the breeders to explore the genetic tolerance through modern mapping techniques and then incorporating it through advance biotechnological approaches like marker assisted backcrossing into elite varieties.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Epidemiology, determinants and dynamics of cholera in Pakistan: Gaps and prospects for future research.
Author: Naseer, M. and Jamali, T.
Journal: Journal of College of Physicians and Surgeons Pakistan,Vol.24 (11), 2014--Pages 855--860
Abstract: Cholera is one of the notifiable endemic diseases in Pakistan, but the reporting of cholera cases is still unsatisfactory. Most of the diagnosed cases are never reported to the relevant authorities. In the year 1993 - 2005, the country did not report any single case of cholera to the WHO. The objectives of this review were to understand the epidemiology and to identify the possible determinants of cholera infection in Pakistan. Medscape, Medline, PakMedinet and PubMed, was searched, using key words, epidemiology and determinants of cholera infection in Pakistan during 1995 - 2010. Morbidity and mortality due to cholera infection during 1995 - 2010, without any language restriction. Out of 27 articles published between 1995 - 2010, 17 articles were included in the review. Vibrio cholerae O139 identified as a major cause of infection in older age group, while O1 biotype of cholera as a predominant cause of cholera among young individuals. Mainly reported determinants of cholera in Pakistan include poor sanitation and hygiene practices, increased population density in urban areas, leading to rapid and unplanned urbanization of the major cities and climate change due to increased environmental pollution in Pakistan are plausible factors for endemicity of cholera in Pakistan. Cholera reporting as a notifiable disease to the relevant departments and timely action can prevent the risk of outbreaks. There is a need to identify specific behavioral and environmental determinants responsible for outbreaks and epidemics of cholera in Pakistan which can help to design appropriate preventive and control interventions.
Keywords:  Epidemiology, cholera, cimate change, urbanization, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Assessment of weather indicators for possible climate change.
Author: : Maqsood, H., Ahmed, S. I. and Ahmed, S.
Journal: Science Vision,Vol.20 (1), 2014--Pages 23--33
Abstract: From 20th century onwards, a great concern has been expressed regarding global climate change. This study attempts to perform detailed analysis of temperature and precipitation for Karachi city of Pakistan, to assess the possible climate change, using two data sets (51-year data: 1961-2012 and 31- year data: 1981-2012) for different parameters. Trends were generated using linear regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK), which depicted that daily and annual temperatures were increasing, with changes in minimum temperature being more significant than maximum temperature. Analyses also showed increase in extreme temperature at night and during winter, showing that urbanization was a major factor, as the heat from buildings trapped in between dissipates at nights. The daily and monthly precipitation levels increased in contrast to annual precipitation trend, which is justified by the averaged monthly analysis showing that decreasing trends were much more significant than increasing trends. In addition, monthly precipitation showed an increase of 4.3 mm, using LR and MK test. It can be noticed that two extreme winter months (December and January) and two extreme hot months (May and October) received increased rainfall. However, statistical analyses showed overall annual decrease in rainfall. Furthermore, decadal analysis indicated sinusoidal behaviour of change in climate indicators; making climatic change evident but cyclic in nature.
Keywords: Assessment, weather indicators, climate change, Karachi, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Environmental impact of climate change in Pakistan.
Author: Khan, S. and Raja, I. A.
Journal: Science Vision,Vol.20 (1), 2014--Pages 15--22
Abstract: Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment – impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country.
Keywords: Environmental impact, climate change, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Effects of drought stress and sward botanical composition on the nutritive value of grassland herbage.
Author: Kchenmeister, F., Kchenmeister, K., Kayser, M., Wrage-Mnnig, N. and Isselstein, J.
Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.16 (4), 2014--Pages 715--722
Abstract: The predicted increase of drought incidents even in temperate climates might affect not only yield but the nutritive value of grassland herbage as well. It is not yet clear whether species richness or functional group composition could mitigate a possibly negative reaction of the nutritive value to drought. Here, we report findings of a study investigating the effects of drought stress, species richness (one to five species) and functional group composition (grass, for b and legume) on nutritive value (crude protein, water-soluble carbohydrates, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber) of herbage under semi controlled conditions in a vegetation hall. Moderate or strong drought was imposed on plants in one growing season and followed by a recovery period. Drought had no or minor immediate or residual effects on nutritive value, and there was no interaction of species richness or functional group with drought. However, functional group and seasonal variation distinctively influenced the nutritive value of herbage. It was concluded that under conditions of climate change with drought stress events, yield decreases in grassland seem to be by far more important than changes in nutritive value.
Keywords:  drought stress, botanical composition, nutritive value, grassland herbage.
Citedy By: 0
A review on bio-butyric acid production and its optimization.
Author: Jha, A. K., Li, J., Yuan, Y., Baral, N. and Ali, B.
Journal:  International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.16 (5), 2014--Pages 1019--1024
Abstract: Butyric acid is treated as one of the renewable green fuels of tomorrow due to its high energy content, and it can reduce health and environmental issues including emission of greenhouse gases, global warming and climate change. The production of bio-butyric acid by microbial fermentation is not cost-effective and economically competitive due to its production at a relatively low concentration, yield, and rate. In order to enhance the economics of the fermentation method, the butyrate production should increase using economical substrate, favorable pretreatment techniques, multicultural stains and fermentation conditions. In order for further investigation and improvement in butyric acid production, batch, repeated batch, fed batch and continuous type butyric acid fermentation of biomass have been discussed in this review.
Keywords: bio-butyric acid production, renewable green fuels, optimization, biomass
Citedy By: 0
Co emission and agricultural productivity 2 in southeast Asian region: A pooled mean group estimation.
Author: Islam, M. S., Tarique, K. M. and Sohag, K.
Journal: Science Vision,Vol.20 (1), 2014--Pages 93--99
Abstract: Frequent natural calamities, extreme climatic events and unexpected seasonal changes are the obvious examples of global warming. Carbon emissions by industrial units all over the world are believed to be the major contributor of the global warming that can lead to reduced agricultural productivity. This paper examines the impact of CO emission on agricultural 2 productivity in Southeast Asian countries. It investigates the dynamic relationship between CO 2 emission (along with other control-variables) and agricultural output using panel data set comprising data from Southeast Asian countries. Following the dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) for estimating the shortrun and long-run effects using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in the error correction form, the study then estimated the empirical model based on pooled mean group (PMG) estimator. The study found that increased CO emission resulted in 2 higher agricultural productivity because of the fact that farmers around the globe quickly adapt to climate change. In addition, use of submersible pump and other capital machineries significantly increased agricultural yield and led to reduced dependency on human capital, while use of chemical fertilizers increased productivity in short-run but had a harmful impact in the long-run.
Keywords: Co emission, agricultural productivity, southeast Asia, climate change.
Citedy By: 0
Historical and future trends of summer mean air temperature over south Asia.
Author:  Iqbal, W. and Zahid, M.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.10 (20), 2014--Pages 67--74
Abstract: Mean air temperature is an important meteorological parameter. The signal of climate change is often describe by the changes in the mean temperature. Keeping in view the importance of the mean air temperature, in this study we used twenty four CMIP5 GCMs to analyze the future changes in summer (June July August September) mean air temperature. The historical run of the GCMs were first compared with the ERA Interim mean temperature for the period 1979-2005. The spatial analysis shows the warm biases of the GCMs over the plain areas and cold biases over the mountainous regions. Taylor diagram analysis shows that most of the GCMs are in good accordance with the ERA Interim mean air temperature for the summer season. The future projections of the selected GCMs were then presented in mulitmodel ensemble for each decade from 2011-2100. The change has in increasing trend all over the study area. The significant change has been projected for the northern and north western parts of Pakistan and south eastern India region. The change in mean temperature is below 4°C under RCP 4.5 whereas it is above 5 °C under RCP 8.5. Multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs projections for the future under both the RCPs, show higher spread over the northern and central parts of Pakistan; and central India. Projected change is robust and it is anticipated that this increase will enhance the erratic behavior of the monsoon in future.
Keywords: Historical trends, future trends,summer mean air temperature, south Asia.
Citedy By: 0
An Analytical Study of the Variations in the Monsoon Patterns over Pakistan.
Author: Imran, A., Zaman, Q., Rasul, G. and Mahmood, A.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.10 (20), 2014--Pages 25--37
Abstract: In the recent era, the climate change has not only triggered the extreme weather events but also brought uncertainties in the behavior of certain weather phenomenon. These variations in the weather patterns are very significant in their consequences. So to enhance the understanding of these uncertainties, the study of these variations is of utmost importance. This study is carried out to investigate the variations in the precipitation patterns over the major monsoon belt of Pakistan during the summer monsoon period. Frequency of extreme precipitation events, onset, withdrawal, duration of monsoon season, total amount of rainfall during the season and total number of rainy days, all these parameters are the key factors not only in understanding the uncertainties caused by the climate change but also from the socio-economic point of view. Daily rainfall observed data is used to compute the above mentioned parameters of the monsoon system. Islamabad has a high frequency of extreme events with rainfall 50 mm, 100 mm or more per day, as compared to the other stations of the same monsoon belt. Southeastern part of the country experiences a trend towards increasing frequency of such extreme events during the last decade. In the northeast, Lahore is the only station where the duration of the monsoon season is increasing significantly. Southeastern monsoon belt has a suppressing trend in terms of the duration of the summer monsoon. Generally the northeastern stations show a direct relationship between the variation of the total amount of rainfall and number of rainy days. Stations located in the southeastern monsoon belt of the country exhibits a trend towards the occurrence of extreme precipitation events as the number of rainy days are not increasing accordingly with the amount of rainfall.
Keywords: Analytical Study, Variations, Monsoon Patterns, Pakistan.
Citedy By: 0
Wind speed analysis of some coastal areas near Karachi.
Author:  Hussain, M. A., Abbas, S., Ansari, M. R. K., Zaffar, A. and Jan, B.
Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.51 (1), 2014--Pages 83--91
Abstract: This communication attempts to analyze Karachi coastal area (Paradise Point 24.84 \textordmasculine E, 66.77 \textordmasculine N)) for an understanding of underlying probability distribution. It has been found that at this site the annual wind speed at a height of 30 meters remains very close to 7 m/s whereas at a height of 61 meters the wind speed reaches to 9 m/s. Moreover, the wind mostly remains directed towards southwest. Furthermore, the annual average wind speed follows Weibull distribution and the annual average wind speed goes on increasing with the passage of time. Maximum energy together with the energy density for different values of the wind mill blade diameters is also calculated. Our analysis shows that the wind speed is increasing as a consequence of global climate change. Though the global climate change has created many threats to the humanity by influencing the local urban microclimate but the positive aspect of this finding is that the increase in wind speed will increase the feasibility and economic viability of the construction of wind farms near Karachi coast and offshore. Of course these calculations will be useful for urban and energy planners.
Keywords: Wind speed analysis, energy density, coastal areas, global climate change, Karachi, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Temperature and Precipitation GLOF Triggering Indicators in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.
Author: Din, K., Tariq, S., Mahmood, A. and Rasul, G.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.10 (20), 2014--Pages 39--56
Abstract: GLOFs are some of climate change induced hazards which are most common in Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit-Baltistan has observed more than 35 GLOF events in the last 200 years history but their frequency has increased in the recent years with five GLOF events in the Gojal Valley (Upper Hunza) during the year 2008. In order to study the relation of GLOF events with weather conditions, well known GLOF events for the period from 1990 to 2012 were selected and two type of meteorological data sets, real time and reanalyzed data has been used. This paper suggests that among other factors, temperature and precipitation (Rain fall) plays the role to enhance the probability of outburst of a lake resulting in a GLOF. Most of GLOF events occurred in Gilgit-Baltistan during the study period have been found to have linked with extreme weather conditions, i.e. either there was an abrupt rise in temperature, heat wave or rain fall a short time before or during the GLOF phenomenon. GLOF hazards can be reduced and risks to the communities can be minimized by continuous Hydro-meteorological monitoring of the affected areas.
Keywords:  Temperature, Precipitation, GLOF Triggering Indicators, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Review article current status of Ulmus wallichiana: Himalayan endangered elm.
Author:
Journal: BUITEMS Journal of Applied and Emerging Sciences,Vol.3 (2), 2014--Pages 60--65
Abstract: Ulmus wallichiana is important traditional and endangered plant species of western Himalaya used for treatment of fractured bones in animals as well as human being. The U. wallichiana (Planchon) is a mountain tree ranging from central Nuristan in Afghanistan, through Northern Pakistan and Northern India to western Nepal at elevations from 800 m to 3000 m. In Pakistan restricted to Nandiar and Hillian sub valleys of district Battagram between 1300 to 2000 m., U. wallichana is found in spruce pine, temperate and lower temperate forest area. The Himalayan Elm grows to 30 m tall, with a broad crown featuring several ascending branches. Mostly flowers exist in a clusters form on branches and maximum flowering offers during March. A strong fibre is obtained from the inner bark. Plant is used for cordage, slow matches and sandals. Chemical investigation of U. wallichiana revealed flavonoides present in stem bark. In IUCN red list U. wallichiana falls in vulnerable category. However, U. wallichiana falls under criteria D of critically endangered species in Pakistan as only 44 mature individuals were found in different parts of district Battagram. There are number of threats responsible for decrease in U. wallichiana number in western Himalayan which may include deforestation, over exploitation and climate changes. Conservation strategies need to follow and improve number of U. wallichiana number. U. wallichiana has the potential to prevent and treat osteoporosis, so an attempt should be made to conserve this important plant species with possible ant osteoporosis properties.
Keywords: Ulmus wallichiana, Himalayan endangered elm, climate change, deforestation,
Citedy By: 0
Economic deprivation of Indus river delta, Sindh, Pakistan: Causes and suggestions.
Author: Anwar, M. M., Chandio, N. H. and Bhalli, M. N.
Journal: Science International,Vol.26 (2), 2014--Pages 885--890
Abstract: Economic losses of the Indus River Delta are constantly increasing since the last two decades. Due to climate change and construction of different projects on River Indus, there has been a decreased flow of fresh water in the river. Mangroves are washed away from the region as 38 \% area of the delta has been reduced due to shortage of freshwater below the Kotri barrage. Brackish water of the Arabian Sea is increasing due to the intrusion of seawater and the production of fish, crops, fruit, and mangrove forests are decreasing. To study the causes of economic deprivation of the delta, soils and water samples were collected from eight different locations of the delta for pH, EC and TDS analyses. Laboratory analyzed data shows that TDS, ranging from 29000 to 42000 and salinity affects the growth of crop plants. Fish and mangrove forests are also being destroyed due to high salinity and shortage of freshwater. Freshwater in the river may push backward the seawater intrusion and will aid the survival of the mangrove forests and crops. So, the Government should develop fair water policies and laws to discourage construction of any project reducing water flow and enhancing seawater intrusion in the delta.
Keywords: Economic deprivation,Indus river delta, Mangrooves, policies, Sindh, Pakistan,
Citedy By: 0
Climate change and human security in South Asia.
Author: Abdul-Hamid, N. Akrami
Journal: Science International,Vol.26 (2), 2014--Pages 801--808
Abstract: Climate change has a direct bearing on the two essential components of human security „freedom from fear? and „freedom from want.? Natural disasters occurring from extreme weather lead to both „fear? and „want.? In the context of South Asian countries, there are at least two components of human security that are likely to be affected severely by climate change food security and health security. The present study is an attempt to fill the existing gap in literature by exploring the impacts of climate change on human security in South Asia. By using the panel data of the four South Asian countries for the period 1973-2009, study finds that health is negatively affected by an increase in temperature and precipitation. Similarly, an increase in temperature tends to reduce the availability of food; however, an increase in precipitation tends to increase the availability of food. Study also finds that inflation has negative relationships with availability of food and health, revealing that due to average low income of people in South Asia, inflation tends to affect their affordability of health and food items. It was also found that Per Capita GDP and openness has a positive impact on health and food security indicators.
Keywords: Climate change, human security, South Asia.
Citedy By: 0
Use of crop growth models in agriculture: A review.
Author: Ahmad, M. I., Ali, A., Ali, M. A., Khan, S. R., Hassan, S. W. and Javed, M. M.
Journal: Science International,Vol.26 (1), 2014--Pages 331--334
Abstract: Crop Modeling is an artistic tool for risk management in Agriculture. Climate change, climate variability, carbon sequestration, long-term food security and environmental sustainability have become important issues in current scenario. Computer simulation models can make a valuable contribution to our understanding of the processes that determine crop responses and predict crop performance. Simulation models greatly facilitate the task of optimizing crop growth and deriving recommendations concerning crop management. They can also be used to determine the potential impact of climate change on future crop productivity, Climate smart agriculture development, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Climate variations, continuously increasing population pressure and market infrastructures are driven forces to reduce agricultural productivity. New management options and appropriate genotypes are need of the day to be considered for sustainable production. Crop simulation models are complementary tools in field experiments to develop innovative crop management systems. In this perspective, two crop growth models viz., APSM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) and DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer) were calibrated and validated to predict growth and yield under rainfed conditions for pothwar region of Pakistan.
Keywords: crop growth models, Climate smart agriculture, Climate change, climate variability, carbon sequestration, long-term food security, environmental sustainability
Citedy By: 0
a Regional Comparison between Global Circulation Model GCM20 and Regional Climate Model PRECIS.
Author: Ahmad, B., Rasul, G., Iqbal, W. and Bukhari, S. A. A.
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.11 (21), 2014--Pages 39--51
Abstract: A super high resolution Global Circulation Model GCM20 (20 Km horizontal resolution) of Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, is compared spatially and temporally with the UK's Hadley center Regional Climate Model (RCM) viz. Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) to investigate climate change scenarios and biases that lie within. Data Analysis and Integration System (DIAS) was accessed to obtain GCM20 data while for PRECIS data, simulations were done under the A1B scenario at a horizontal resolution of 0.22 degrees (25 Km approx.) with the boundary data from European GCM ECHAM5. Three different time scales were selected from both models- the baseline (1979-1998), present and near future (2007-2027) and the far future (2080-2099). Comparisons were made for the domain 20° N-40° N and 60° E-80° E including Pakistan, Afghanistan and climate active regions of Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas. Analysis of both the models suggests that the areas covering the monsoon belt shall receive less warming effects than those which seldom receives it. Moreover regions with higher terrain shall receive relatively greater warming in the near and far future. Magnitude of the temperature increase in the near future relative to baseline for GCM20 suggests a 1 °C-1.5 °C rise whereas for PRECIS it suggests a 1.5 °C-2 °C rise in the region. Both GCM20 and PRECIS, in the near and far future, show a relative precipitation increase (0.5 mm/day and 1 mm/day respectively) in the extreme North region of the domain.
Keywords: Global Circulation Model GCM20, Regional Climate Model PRECIS
Citedy By: 0
Medicinal plants after forest disturbance, restoration and cultivation in Pakistani Himalaya
Author: Adnan, M., Tariq, A., Begum, S. and Ullah, A.
Journal: Int J of Agric Biol.,Vol.16 (5), 2014--Pages 1006-1010
Abstract: Himalayan forests of Pakistan are subjected to various anthropogenic pressures, which have resulted in the extinction of several medicinal plants important for rural livelihood as food, healthcare and income. The study was carried out at Ayubia National Park with the objectives (i) to assess the abundance of selected medicinal plant species in disturbed, undisturbed and restored forests, and (ii) to evaluate the cultivation potential of highly valuable medicinal plant species. In the first step, 15 plots were randomly assigned each to three forest types, in which the abundance of five medicinal herbs was assessed. Secondly, five locally valuable species were cultivated each in three replications of 1 m2 area in agroforest. Density of medicinal plants such as Bergenia ciliata was the highest in undisturbed forest (4.3 m-2), intermediate under restored forest (1.8 m-2) and the lowest under disturbed forest (01 m-2). Podophyllum emodi and Paeonia emodi were found absent from the disturbed forest, while encountered in restored forest. Species such as B. ciliata showed higher production and economic gains (18 US$) on agroforest plot (1 m2 ). In conclusion, forest restoration has the potential to recover extinct medicinal plant species and can provide local support for forest expansion in the region. In addition, introduction of medicinal plants cultivation into the agricultural system may represent an opportunity for the conservation of such species in the wild and improving rural livelihood. Above all, the application of present study on a wider scale may help in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on food security and may also ensure their sustained supply. © 2014 Friends Science Publishers Keywords: Herbs; Forest types; Density; Agricultural production; Livelihood Citedy By: 0 Impact of South Asian high variability on monsoon precipitation in Pakistan. Author: Zahid, M. and Rasul, G. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.10 (19), 2013--Pages 1--10 Abstract: The South Asian High (SAH) variability is known to have significant contribution in the success and failure of summer monsoon precipitation (JAS) of Pakistan situated within South Asia. This study aims to analyze the impact of South Asian High (SAH) variability on the summer monsoon precipitation in Pakistan. The principal component analysis shows strong positive temporal correlation coefficient between SAH (200 hPa) and monsoon (JAS) precipitation i.e. 0.7 for the period 1980-2010. The streamline and precipitation analysis shows that Pakistan receives heavy precipitation during strong SAH years (1988, 1992, 1994, 2010) due to westward (70°E-80°E) movement of SAH from its mean position and experience suppress precipitation during weak SAH year (1987, 1997, 2004, 2009) due to eastward (90°E-110°E) oscillation of SAH. The isotherms analysis shows negative anomalies in strong SAH years and positive anomalies in weak SAH years over most parts of Pakistan. The minimum values of divergence of moisture flux (DMF) at 850 hPa in strong SAH years and nil DMF in weak SAH years has been observed over western parts of Pakistan. The wind field (850 hPa) analysis has shown the evident stimulation of moisture from Arabian Sea incase of strong SAH years and quite minute stimulation of moisture in weak SAH years. Hence, it is evident from the study that the strength and oscillation of SAH and summer monsoon precipitation (JAS) in Pakistan are strongly inter-reliant upon each other. It is anticipated that climate change can lead the country towards extreme droughts and extreme flooding. This study will be helpful for the forecasters who can use the behavior of SAH (Tibetan High) as an indicator for prediction of intense and weak summer monsoon rainfall. Keywords: Moisture flux, Monsoon, Pakistan, Precipitation, South Asian High Citedy By: 0 Seasonal variation of rainy days in Pakistan. Author: Naheed, G., Kazmi, D. H. and Rasul, G. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.9 (18), 2013--Pages 9--13 Abstract: Monsoon precipitation (one of the major rainfall systems of the country) is the lifeline of Pakistan's water resources which falls in summer from July to September. It not only caters the peak power supply demands but also fulfills the highest water demands of field crops and gathers the reserves to meet the requirements during low flow periods in next 4-5 months. Winter brings lot of snow over the northern mountains which melts in early summer and maintains the sustainable river flows for power generation and irrigation before the onset of the summer monsoon. Climate change has imposed rather negative impacts on the rainfall systems of the country, mainly by demolishing the seasonal rainfalls or by modifying its intensity. El \~ Nino induced shortfall of precipitation triggered Pakistan history's worst drought in terms of length and intensity, afterward a rising trend is being followed, embedded by increased frequency of heavy downpour events. In the present study the main focus was on the rainfall frequency by incorporating the rainy days equal to or more than 2.5 millimeters. Daily data of last 50 years for all the available meteorological stations was incorporated. All parts of the country were analyzed equally and it revealed that the upper parts of Khyber Pakhnoonkhwa province and the northern areas are the main vulnerable, with slope of trend line more than “2” either positive or negative. The said areas are not only vital for the agriculture sector as well as for the hydrological cycle of the country. Keywords: El nino, Monsoon, Pakistan, Precipitation, Rainy days, Seasonal variation Citedy By: 0 Flow variation in Astore river under assumed glaciated extents due to climate change. Author: Naeem, U. A., Hashmi, H. N., Shamim, M. A. and Ejaz, N. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences,Vol.11 (1), 2013--Pages 73--81 Abstract: Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard, the paper is an effort where the analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100 \% , 50 \% and 0 \% under future climate scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100 \% reduction in glaciated area were -72 \% , -15 \% and -46 \% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively. Keywords: Astore watershed, Glacier modeling, Glaciers, Retreating glacial extent, Snowmelt modeling, UBCWM Citedy By: 0 Hydraulic performance evaluation of pressure compensating (PC) emitters and micro-tubing for drip irrigation system. Author: Mangrio, A. G., Asif, M., Ahmed, E., Sabir, M. W., Khan, T. and Jahangir, I. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.32 (4), 2013--Pages 290--298 Abstract: Drip irrigation system is necessary for those areas, where the water scarcity issues are present. The present study was conducted at the field station of Climate Change, Alternate Energy and Water Resources Institute (CAEWRI), National Agricultural Research Center (NARC), Islamabad, during 2013, regarding drip irrigation system. Drip irrigation system depends on uniform emitter application flow. All the emitters were tested and replicated thrice at pressure head (34 to 207Kpa) with an increment of 34 Kpa. The minimum and maximum discharges were 1.32 - 3.52, 3.36 - 5.42, and 43.22 - 100.99 Lph, with an average of 2.42, 4.63 and 73.66 Lph, for Bow Smith, RIS and Micro-tubing, respectively. It indicates that more than 90 \% of emission uniformity (EU) and uniformity coefficient (CU) for all Emitters, which shows excellent water application with least standard deviation, ranging 0.12 to 2.37, throughout the operating pressure heads in all emitters. An average coefficient of variation (CV) of all emitters were behaving less than 0.07, indicating an excellent class at all operating pressure heads between 34 to 207 Kpa. Moreover, the relationship of discharge and pressure of emitters indicates that discharge increased with the increase of pressure head. The Q-H curve plays key role in the selection of emitters. Keywords: Discharge, Drip irrigation, Emitters, Hydraulic performance, Micro-tubing, Pressure, Uniformity Citedy By: 0 Perturbations of modeling and forecast of Karachi coastal region seawater. Author: Hussain, M. A., Abbas, S., Ansari, M. R. K. and Zaffar, A. Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.50 (3), 2013--Pages 235--245 Abstract: Global warming is now a stark reality affecting the humanity in many hazardous ways. Continuous floods in Pakistan in past two years are an eye opener in this regard. A great loss of property, agriculture and life as a result of these floods suggests for an intelligent monitoring of the future projections of climate change and global warming. This is necessary because the harmful impacts of natural hazards can be coped and alleviated with a good planning in advance. This monitoring demands for enhanced forecasting capabilities, use of better analytical techniques and a clear determination and study of the controlling factors. Karachi is a coastal city which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan. Moreover, it is among one of the largest metropolitans of the world. So expectedly is most suitable for the study of high level of complex natural and anthropogenic activities. It is peculiar in the sense that it has two summer seasons, a situation scarcely observable on the globe. Here, summer season seawater temperature fluctuations are studied with the help of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and short- and long-term forecasts are made. Our short-term forecasts determine months for the summer wise temperature extremes. It appears that the months of May, June, July and August are the months of extreme temperature for the first summer and October is the month of extreme temperature for the second summer. The long-term forecasts predict that 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019 will be the years of warm summers. The analysis appearing here would be useful for coastal-urban planners in emphasizing the impact of seawater extreme temperatures on urban industrial activities, etc. Keywords: Global warming, Karachi, Modelling, Pakistan, Perturbations, SARIMA model, Seawater extreme temperatures Citedy By: 0 Effect of climatic change scenerio on reproductive behaviour of some fodder grasses growing wild in Pakistan. Author: Husain, T., Ahmed, M., Hussain, A. and Nazim, K. Journal: FUUAST Journal of Biology,Vol.2 (2), 2013--Pages 85--90 Abstract: The main objective of this study was to see the behavior of some fodder grass in global warming situation. In this regard the estimation of florets formation, sex distribution, anthesis, pollen fertility, pollen germination, seed set and seed germination of Apluda mutica L., Bothriocloa ischaemum (L) Keng, Chrysopogon aucheri (Boiss.) Stapf., C. serrulatus Trin., Cymbopogon caesius (Nees ex Hook. \& Arn.) Stapf., C. jwarancusa (Jones,) Schult, C. martinii (Roxb.) Wat., C. commutatus (Steud.) Stapf., Dichanthium annulatum (Forssk.) Stapf., Hyparrhenia hirta (L.) Stapf., Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers. and Themeda anathera (Nees) Hack. were investigated. These plants were collected from various climatic areas of Pakistan. The results demonstrated that the highest number (348) of florets per inflorescence were found in Cymbopogon jwarancusa (Jones) Schult.from Nathiagally while lowest (135 ± 50) were seen in Apluda mutica from Kallar Kahar Hill. Former species and Bothriochloa produced largest amount of barren florets. It is shown that from November to February the anthesis started early at 6:00AM in Cymbopogon spp. and Sorghum halepense, while Chrysopogon aucheri at 8:00AM. In Cymbopogon spp. and Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers. it started ½ hour early during March to May and terminated at 7:00AM, however in Cymbopogon aucheri the anthesis time was from 7:30AM to 8:30AM in the same months. To summarize the anthesis behavior in these grasses, generally it started from 6:00AM morning and continued up to 8:30AM, generally. Except Hyperrhenia, Dicanthium and Cymbopogon jwarancusa, all grasses produced 85 \% viable pollen grains. Pollen germination significantly increases with increase temperature in some cases. Seed set is poor with higher percentage of seed germination. It is evident that even in considerably higher temperature these grasses show normal behavior. Therefore it is suggested that there should be no negative impact of climate change on these grasses. Keywords: Citedy By: 0 Climate change and precipitation in Pakistan -A meteorological prospect. Author: Gadiwalal, M. S. and Burke, F. Journal: International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology,Vol.4 (2), 2013--Pages 10--15 Abstract: Pakistan has suffered prolonged periods of precipitation fluctuation that kept going on for decades. Shifting between such periods in northern and southern parts of the country often appears as a pace change. The object of this study is to assess prior changes in climatic patterns over various regions of Pakistan and the future magnitudinal changes of climate that would impact on water resources, which subsequently affect the ecosystem, health, food supply and countrys water resource sustainability. Trend and variability analysis have been applied on countrywide meteorological data for the period 1961-2010. The study revealed an increasing trend of 0.660C in temperature and heavy and intense trend of 106 mm in precipitation during the past 110 years that has exacerbated food and water supply demand in the southern part of the country. This increasing heat of 0.060C per decade speeds up the water cycle and evapo-transpiration processes. Atmospheric vapour pressure tendency has also demonstrated increasing trend of 0.96 mm per anum in water cycle. Extreme weather events resulting in droughts and floods reflect changes in climate. Pakistan has to combat water shortage by improving water reservoirs, regulating river water flow and adoption of other water conservation techniques to manage food and water supply - demand. Keywords: Climate change, precipitation, Pakistan, meteorological prospect Citedy By: 0 Use of environmental isotopes to study the effect of climate change on Passu glacier. Author: Butt, S., Mahmood, A., Rasul, G., Latif, Z., Bashir, F., Sheikh, M. R. and Tasneem, M. A Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.32 (1), 2013--Pages 74--83 Abstract: Isotopic or nuclear techniques are used to find the effect of global warming on glaciers. Nuclear techniques are related to a branch of hydrology known as isotope hydrology in which environmental isotopes are used to solve major problems related to various aspects of water including its origin, age, recharge mechanism and interconnection between different aquifers. The main advantage of isotopic technique is the use of various isotopes as a tracer. Being natural tracer, environmental stable isotopes (oxygen-18, deuterium 2H, etc.) need not be introduced or injected in the system under investigation but they are a part of the hydrological system. Environmental stable isotopes are measured as ratio of most abundant isotopes of a given element to that of less abundant against some reference material. These ratios are measured on gas source mass spectrometers. Tritium, 3H is a short lived radioactive isotope of hydrogen with half-life of 12.43 years and is measured by counting beta decay events in a liquid scintillation counter. Stable isotopes mass spectrometry alongwith tritium dating has been used to determine the source of moisture and the age of ice and melt-water at Passu Glacier. Samples were collected from the stream originating from Passu Glacial Lake which receives melt generated from the seasonal snow cover and glacier melt. Highly depleted values of stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in the samples and highly positive value of deuterium suggests that moisture source of precipitation is from Mediterranean. Tritium values in Passu stream samples from March to August were around 20TU (tritium units) that correspond to the mixing of major part of melt generated from the seasonal snow cover and little from the glacier's melt. In Passu stream samples high tritium concentrations up to 75TU were observed from September to November, the period after the seasonal snow cover has been completely melted. It shows contribution of pure glacier melt in the Passu Glacial Lake during this period. High tritium concentrations in stream flow samples correspond to 1963-64 open weapons testing peak, causing tritium concentration rise. The presence of high tritium concentration in the Passu stream samples is the most visible sign of glacier melt in the area and the impact of climate change on these glaciers. Keywords: Environmental isotopes, Glacier melt, Mass spectrometers, Nuclear techniques, Passu glacier, Tritium dating Citedy By: 0 Monitoring receding of glaciers and in north-eastern Pakistan through geo-informatics techniques. Author: Zamir, U. B. Journal: Academic Research International,Vol.31 (4), 2012--Pages 327--334 Abstract: Pakistan is amongst those countries which are blessed from the wide range of natural features. Pakistan is a land of varied topography, ranging from deep sea to top mountains of the world. Northern area of Pakistan carries the most fascinating mountainous series with snow-clad peaks of varying height. Apart from North and South Pole, Northern Pakistan hosts the greatest masses of glaciated ice in the world. The glaciers are of extreme worth in providing fresh water resources; this important resource is a vital source of water but it has been diminished due to anthropogenic interventions which, as a result, have unbalanced the indigenous eco-system. Monitoring of these glaciers is important to cater the water and power need of a country like Pakistan. By using remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques, this paper is an attempt to address the receding of glaciers and snow cover in the extreme north-eastern districts of Pakistan. Monitoring of melting of glaciers due to climate change in the recent decades has been attempted in this study for Ghanche District. This study is also concerned with observing the spatial change in the snow cover and glaciers of Ghanche District. Keywords: Climate change, GIS,Geo-informatics, Glaciers, Land cover Citedy By: 0 Modeling and simulating the effects of ozone layer depletion on climate change at Pakistan air space. Author: Yousufzai, M. A. K., Ansari, M. R. K. and Iqbal, J. Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.49 (2), 2012--Pages 145--152 Abstract: Ozone is a minor constituent of atmosphere that can shield UV-B radiation right from the solar radiation. Climate refers to the mean behaviour of the weather over some appropriate averaging time. Moreover, the condition of the atmosphere at a particular location and time is its weather that includes winds, clouds, precipitation, temperature and relative humidity. In contrast to weather, the climate of a region is the condition of the atmosphere over many years, as described by long term averages of the same properties that determine weather. The variability in the climatic conditions can enhance the temperature of the region where the ozone is depleted. Due to this increase in the temperature, climatic conditions are changed. We have found some correlational structures for determining the variations in climate on the basis of ozone layer depletion. A model has been developed for evaluating sea surface temperature using stratospheric ozone filter. This filter has been formulated taking into account the ozone layer depletion (OLD) strategy for Pakistan atmospheric regions. For making predictions of fluctuations in the temperatures that in turn create climate change in the region, stochastic analysis is implemented here for observing future conjecture of the incoming radiation. These forecasts are useful for public, private and government organizations. Keywords: Climate change, Ozone, Ozone layer depletion, Simulation, Stratopsheric phenomenon Citedy By: 0 Maize growth and yield in Peshawar under changing climate. Author: Shah, A., Akmal, M. and AndFarhatullah andRaziuddin andAbdul-Rafi, M. Asim Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (6), 2012--Pages 1933-1938 Abstract: Global climate change is consequence of accumulating greenhouse gases (Carbon) at lower atmosphere which might affects crops growth and yield. Maize is an important summer cereals, grown on considerable area in Pakistan every year. We, therefore, study the delay sowing response with changing climate on maize. Field experiment was conducted at Agronomy Research Farm, Agricultural University Peshawar, Pakistan in a randomized complete block design. Sowing was done from June 8 to July 24, 2010 with ten days intervals. Mazie (cv. Azam) was planted in rows at 0.75 m distance in NS orientations. Crop was raised under the uniform recommended cultural practices. Data regarding days to emergence, tasseling and maturity showed a consecutive decrease when sowing was delayed form June 08 onwards. However, the crop life cycle (i.e. vegetative and reproductive durations) initially remained uniform but expanded for late sowing dates (July). Delay sowing showed an increase in the leaf area index with an abrupt decline for the late sown crop. Nonetheless, plant stand at harvest remained static during the growth for all sowing dates. A stable to moderate reduction was noticed in ear length (cm) when sowings was delayed from Jun 08 onwards. Grain rows cob -1 did not influence by the delay sowing in the season. Moreover, delay sowing did not show any significant (P \textless 0.05) change for the grain number. However, thousand grains weight was initially remained stable but declined (P \textless 0.05) by delay in sowing. Biological yield, dry matter and grains yield (gm-2 ) revealed almost a similar decreasing trend when sowing was delayed. Dry matter to grain yield relationship was linear (r2 = 0.95) and revealed a mean loss of 1.65 g m2 when sowing delayed from June 08 to July 24 in the season. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), the growth function, was also declined by the delay in sowing. We inferred that losses in leaf area indices, ear length and grain weights were basis of the grain yield reduction by changing climate of the growing season which brought a significant disturbance in the vegetative and reproductive phases of the crop life cycle that resulted losses (P \textless 0.05) in grain yield by the late sown crop in the season. Keywords: Climate change, Maize growth, Peshawar, yield, Pakistan Citedy By: 0 Review of costs and methods for climate change adaptation. Author: Sarkar, M. S. K., Begum, R. A., Pereira, J. J. and Bin-Jaafar, A. Journal: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Volume,Vol.5 (6), 2012--Pages 397--406 Abstract: A number of studies have been estimated adaptation costs of climate change for both developed and developing countries. This study critically reviews adaptation costs of climate change and made a comparison of these estimations and methods. Strategic responses and proper estimates are required to fortify the nations and community resilience to the implications of adverse effects of climate change. Adaptation measures are important to limit the negative impacts of climate change even though with adaptation there will be residual damages/costs. The estimated costs are useful for the basis of discussion and allocation of the amount of investment needed for tackling climate change adaptation. The costing of adaptation should also be robust and methodologically transparent considering residual damages as this has been influential in the debate concerning funding on the issues of climate change. Keywords: Adaptation,Adaptation cost,Climate change,Methods,Review Citedy By: 0 A review of mineral carbonation by enhanced weathering. Author: Saeed, A. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2012--Pages 195--201 Abstract: Climate change mitigation efforts have so far failed to achieve rapid rates of de-carbonisation. A technical possibility can still be realised. However, the long residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere would continue the warming trend for the foreseeable future even if emissions were immediately cut to zero. Geoengineering methods provide a useful complement to mitigation and adaptation. The emission of CO2 from power stations operating on fossil fuel and other sources can be handled by only three types of storage technologies including: (1) ocean storage, (2) geological storage (geosequestration), and (3) CO2 mineralization or mineral carbonation (geomimicry). This last option provides a permanent solution to storing CO2 safely on a geological time scale. The high cost and elevated energy requirements are preventing this technology from reaching industrial scale. Ultramafic complexes and serpentinite bodies are major sources of magnesium-rich minerals like olivine and serpentine, which can be carbonated by using CO2. The ultramafic rocks of the Great Serpentinite Belt (GSB), northern New South Wales, Australia, have been identified as a high-potential feedstock for mineral carbonation. These deposits indicate variable degrees of carbonation. The source of carbon in ultramafic rocks hosted magnesite veins and deposits are still under debate but agreement appears to be emerging on their near surface formation at low temperature pressure condition. The petrographic and geochemical studies on serpentinite and magnesite have revealed the possibilities of finding the agent/catalyst that could enhance the process of carbonation by using the atmospheric CO2. The list of advantages for Mineral Carbonation over alternative methods for large scale CO2 sequestration is quite long and the fact that Pakistan has substantial amount of serpentine, for example, in Taleri Mohammad Jan village near Hindubagh, opens up the opportunities to carry forward the study on Mineral Carbonation in Pakistan and this could reveal highly effective results. Keywords: Geo-sequestration, Mineral carbonation, Pakistan, Review, Serpentinite, Weathering Citedy By: 0 A unified approach to address water-climate related issues. Author: Rasul, G. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.9 (17), 2012--Pages 85--91 Abstract: Impact of the Climate change will be more pronounced and visible on the water resources as they would send ashock wave to all the socio-economic sectors shattering water, food and energy security. The Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) provides opportunity to involve most of the stakeholders to mitigate and adapt the climate change and variability in a holistic manner at a grass root level. The process incorporates the usable knowledge on past, present and future trends of climate and likely impacts on water resources taking care of risks and vulnerabilities. Risk management is done through low or no-regret investments increasing the resilience of vulnerable communities to the future projected climatic conditions which are gaining confidence due to the continued research. Although it is impossible to halt the changing climate yet the mitigation efforts would secure thefuture of forthcoming generations on the planet earth. At the same time, there is a need to learn how to live with the changing climate by adapting it. Both mitigation and adaptation should go side-by-side reinforcing each otherreducing the risks and vulnerabilities in a participatory manner. Keywords: Climate change, IWRM, Integrated Water Resource Management, Citedy By: 0 Impact of climate changes and correlations on oil fatty acids in sunflower. Author: Onemli, F. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences,Vol.49 (4), 2012--Pages 455--458 Abstract: Sunflower oil is a major important vegetable oil because it is widely used in human nutrition and in many industrial productions depends on fatty acid composition. Field studies were conducted during in two years on the same soil to investigate changes of climate induced oil fatty acid composition of a traditional sunflower, and to obtain correlations among oil fatty acids. Seed oil content and twelve fatty acid percentages of sunflower oil were analyzed. Variations for years were significant for seed oil content and palmitic acid (C16:0), oleic (C18:1), linoleic (C18:2), linolenic (C18:3), miristic (C14:0) and eicosenoic acids (C20:1). Higher temperatures during seed development in 2010 resulted with 68.38 \% increasing in oleic content of the traditional sunflower hybrid. The highest negative correlations (r= -0.99) were noted between oleic and linoleic acids. Keywords: Climate change, Fatty acids, Helianthus annuus, Oil quality, Sunflower Citedy By: 0 Consumptive use of water and genetical assessment of wheat genotypes to defy worrisome prevalence of water stress. Author: Noorka, I. R., El-Bramawy, M. A. S., Tabasum, S. and Saljoqi, A. R. Journal: Sarhad Journal of Agriculture,Vol.28 (4), 2012--Pages 559--564 Abstract: The judicious management of natural resources are the road map, to combat poverty, burgeoning population, disasters and ultimately to attain the world peace. The present study revealed that seven wheat genotypes responded differently to water stress under the changing set of climatic conditions. The water stress played a negative role by decreasing the most of the traits under study, which ultimately showed decline in grain yield. The percent decrease in yield under both normal irrigation and water stress environments depicted that Pak-81 topped the genotypes regarding grain yield and showed a minimum effect of water stress and showed best performance under water stress. Genetical studies were conducted to check heterosis, inbreeding depression, potence ratio, heritability and genetic advance studies for the selected wheat crosses. These genotypes will explore themselves in subsequent generation so that the water stress tolerance genotypes may be produced. The increase in temperature and population will further induce fresh water shortage and law and order situation in the country. The prevailing International tension can be cool down by the introduction of water stress tolerant wheat varieties and their re-evaluation of our research system, which will leads to solve water stess problems. Keywords: Climate, Climate change, Disaster, Grain yield, Heritability, Heterosis, Inbreeding depression, Judicious, Potence ratio, Poverty, Sustainable, Water stress, World peace Citedy By: 0 Shifting herbivory pattern due to climate change: A case study of himalayan balsam from Pakistan. Author: Nasim, G. and Shabbir, A. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (1), 2012--Pages 63--68 Abstract: Pests, diseases and weeds cause significant impact on crops and natural vegetation each year. Climate change is likely to cause a spread of tropical and sub-tropical species into temperate areas and to increase the numbers of many temperate species currently limited by low temperatures at high altitudes. The potential expansion of geographical ranges of pest species will be disruptive to quarantine barriers and is likely to result in increased damage to crops and natural vegetation in previously pest free areas. Elm Leaf Beetle Pyrrhalta luteola (Mueller) is been reported to increase due to 0.3 o C rise in temperature and 3-4 \% decrease in rainfall in the Moist Himalayan Forest of Pakistan. The insect attacks Impatience gladulifera Royle., a plant of medicinal importance. The plant is not only used in a variety of local medicines but is also one of the important constituent of undergrowth natural vegetation in these forests. During the last 10 years the leaf damaged cased by the insect is on a hike and has increased up to 85 \% . Keywords: Climate change, Herbivory, Himalayan balsam, Impatience gladulifera, Pakistan Citedy By: 0 Burden of malaria at household level: A baseline review in the advent of climate change. Author: Mia, M. S., Begum, R. A., Er, A., Abidin, R. D. Z. R. Z. and Pereira, J. J. Journal: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology,Vol.5 (1), 2012--Pages 1--15 Abstract: Malaria is the most serious public health problem in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. It has emerged one of the top three killers among the vector borne diseases in the world. Changes in climate factors greatly affect seasonal transmission and geographical distribution of malaria which causes great losses to the households in terms of costs of securing treatment as well as loss of output and income in endemic regions. This study aims to identify and review literature related to economic costs of malaria illness at household level. The study also focuses on the burden of the disease in terms of Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost. Literatures were identified for review from various sources such as journals, reports, proceedings and other related documents by searching comprehensively both electronic and non-electronic databases. Websites of the organizations known to have undertaken research in this area were also searched to find related documents and reports. Based on the review of literature, it was found that costs of malaria vary by the socio-economic status of households and the poor spend a significantly higher proportion of their income on treatment and preventive measures for the disease. Direct cost of malaria consumed 28-34 \% of annual income of poor households and 1-2 \% of high income households. Studies revealed that indirect costs of malaria accounted for a significant portion of households annual income ranging from 2 to 6 \% . It was found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some African countries may face their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20 \% . It can be concluded that illness of malaria imposes greater burden on poor households than the better-off. Minimizing the burden of the disease could help people, especially the poor to get out from the worst economic situation. Therefore, further research is urgently needed to ensure interventions to control the malaria disease more effectively in the advent of climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Household, Illness costs, Malaria, Review Citedy By: 0 Impact of temperature and precipitation on rice productivity in rice-wheat cropping system of Punjab province. Author: Mahmood, N., Ahmad, B., Hassan, S. and Bakhsh, K. Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant sciences,Vol.22 (4), 2012--Pages 993--997 Abstract: Pattern of temperature and precipitation are changing due to global warming, resulting in having impact on crop productivity. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of climatic variables on rice productivity in the rice-wheat cropping system of the Punjab. Aggregated time series data were used for rice crop. Cobb Douglas type production function was employed with rice yield as dependent variable and climatic factors as independent variables. Results showed that an increase in temperature by 1.5°C and 3°C would enhance rice yield by 2.09 \% and 4.33 \% , respectively compared to the base year regression estimates. However, an increase in precipitation by 5 \% and 15 \% during September-October could adversely affect rice productivity by 5.71 \% and 15.26 \% , respectively. However, its decrease is positively related with rice yield. Evolving and disseminating rice varieties having adaptation to climate change should be the focus of future research and development. Improved farm management practices, creating awareness among farmers about climate change and strengthening extension department are some measures to be taken for adaptation to climate change in the rice region. Keywords: Basmati rice, Pakistan, Precipitation, Productivity, Punjab, Rainfall, Temperature, Wheat Citedy By: 0 Comparison of temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies in southern Tibetan plateau and northern Siberia. Author: Li-Xin, L., Ovchinnikov, D. V., Kirdyanov, A. V. and Zhang, Q. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (2), 2012--Pages 152--164 Abstract: Comparison of climate histories over different regions helps in understanding global climate change. Here we compiled temperature sensitive tree-ring chronologies over the southern Tibetan Plateau and Northern Siberia and compared temperature variations over these two regions for the past 350 years. Tree-ring width chronologies of the Eastern Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) and alpine junipers (Juniperus recurva and J. squamata) on the southern Tibetan Plateau were found to be sensitive to June-September temperature variations. Tree-ring maximum latewood density time series of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) and Siberian larch (L. sibirica) in Northern Siberia were correlated to temperature variations during June-August. Comparison of the two regional chronologies showed that both regions experienced two coldest summer episodes around 1810s-1820s and 1960s-1970s. Wavelet coherence analysis showed that a significant co-variability at around 4-year cycles existed in the periods 1740s-1760s, 1840s-1870s, 1890s-1910s and 1950s-1960s. These results suggested that summer temperature variations over the southern Tibetan Plateau and Northern Siberia had an unstable relationship which was probably a result of different climatic forcing. Yet, the two cold episodes around 1810s-1820s and 1960s-1970s might indicate common driving factors such as volcanic activities and solar forcing in these particular intervals. Keywords: Cold episodes, Comparison, Northern Siberia, Summer temperature, Tibetan Plateau, Tree rings, Volcanic activities Citedy By: 0 Vegetation dynamics in the western Himalayas, diversity indices and climate change. Author: Khan, S. M., Page, S., Ahmad, H., Shaheen, H. and Harper, D. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2012--Pages 232--243 Abstract: Vegetation provides the first tropic trophic level in mountain ecosystems and hence requires proper documentation and quantification in relation to abiotic environmental variables both at individual and aggregate levels. The complex and dynamic Himalayas with their varying climate and topography exhibit diverse vegetation that provides a range of ecosystem services. The biodiversity of these mountains is also under the influence of diverse human cultures and land uses. The present paper is not only first of its kind but also quite unique because of the use of modern statistical techniques for the quantification of Diversity Indices of plant species and communities. The vegetation was sampled in three categories, i.e., trees, shrubs and herbs, as follows: a height of = 5m were classified in the tree layer, shrubs were all woody species of height 1m and 5m and, finally, the herb layer comprised all herbaceous species less than 1m in height. The presence/absence of all vascular plants was recorded on pre-prepared data sheets (1, 0 data). For the tree layer, the diameter of trees at breast height was measured using diameter tape. Coverage of herbaceous vegetation was visually estimated according to Daubenmire and Braun Blanquet methods. It gives overall abundance of vascular plants on one hand and composition of these species on the other. Data was analysed in Canonical Community Coordination Package (CANOCO) to measure diversity indices of plant communities and habitat types. Results for five plant communities/habitat types indicated that plant biodiversity decreased along the altitude. Shannon Diversity Index values range between 3.3 and 4. N2 index and Index of Sample Variance were also designed. All of these Diversity Indices showed the highest values for the communities/habitats of north facing slopes at middle altitudes. Higher plant diversity at these slopes and altitudes can be associated to the period of snow cover which is longer and a relatively denser tree cover as compared to the southern slopes and hence the soil has high moisture which supports high biodiversity in return. Global warming causes desertification in number of fragile mountain ecosystem around the globe. These findings suggest that species diversity decreases along the measured ecological gradient under the influence of deforestation coupled with global climatic change. Keywords: Biodiversity, Climate change, Diversity Index, Mountain Ecosystem, Vegetation, Western Himalayas Citedy By: 0 Agroclimatic modelling for estimation of wheat production in the Punjab province, Pakistan. Author: Iqbal, M. J., Ali, Z. and Ali, S. S. Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.49 (4), 2012--Pages 241--249 Abstract: Pakistan's economy hinges on agriculture and the most important agricultural commodity of the country is wheat. The province of Punjab has the predominant share in wheat production of the country. As agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to the climate change phenomena, the current global climatic article reports on an attempted agroclimatic model for the estimation of wheat production in Punjab using meteorological parameters. Keywords: Agroclimatic model, Agrometeorological variables, Modelling, Pakistan, Punjab, Wheat, Yield Prediction Citedy By: 0 Global environmental health risks: causes, impacts and mitigations. Author: Hussain, M. Journal: Environ Monitor,Vol.12 (9-10), 2012--Pages 16--20 Abstract: The world at large and the developing countries in particular are entangled by cruel jaws of environmental degradation. Main causes for eco-destruction are exponentially increasing population, improper utilization of natural resources, lack of environmental education, climate change, non availability of health care \& the specialists advice at the required time and natural catastrophes like eruption of volcanoes, earthquakes, hailstorms, tsunamis \& tornadoes. The world communities have continuously been exposed to environmental health risks especially since the dawn of industrial revolution. Multifarious diseases caused by polluted water, air and ground resources, contaminated food, unwanted noise, desertification, deforestation and industries are spreading fast like jungle fire. The health risks are varying according to type of terrain, climatic \& weather conditions, elevations above mean sea level, pets, age, existing health conditions, kind of race, safety and exposure to occupational environments. Populations of Asia \& Africa are facing the environmental health risks more than those of white \& yellow races. At global level 800 million people are suffering from malnutrition. Unwanted noise creates loss of hearing and nervous tension. Smoking and drug addiction have ruined health of the masses especially the youth. Damage to health involves heavy losses to quality and quantum of outputs, economic drain and multiplying hospital admissions \& monetary bills. Extreme events like floods and droughts caused due to climate change result in huge health and financial losses in terms of numerous injuries \& deaths. It is discouraging to note that the developing nations allocate minimum amount of funds for health care facilities. The incidence of diseases is also frequent and wide spread in such countries. Above all these countries do not allocate enough funds for environmental protection so that the diseases like dengue fever may not take the shape of epidemic. It is the most opportune time for individuals, groups, civil society, nations and international communities to undertake mitigation measures against the decaying health issues. There is dire necessity of close collaboration and adoption of joint strategies among the environmentalists, medical professionals, industrialists and public representatives on the mitigation of eco-degradation issues. Environmental Health and Occupational Safety need to be taught in the medical institutions both at graduate and post-graduate levels. Medical practitioners should undertake the Mass Awareness programmes as a matter of routine and advise the patients about the benefits of Cleaner \& Greener Environment, Preventive Medicine and Primary Healthcare. Research centres should be established for undertaking in-depth studies on the specific Environmental Health problems. Keywords: Air pollution, Environmental degradation, Environmental health risks, Global environment, Mitigation, Occupational environments, Water pollution Citedy By: 0 Effects of plant growth regulators on growth and oil quality of canola (Brassica napus L.) under drought stress. Author: Faizanullah, Bano, A. and Nosheen, A. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (6), 2012--Pages 1873--1880 Abstract: Growth regulators have previously been documented to enhance growth and improve oil and protein content of plants. This paper documents the effects of Salicylic acid (SA) and Putrescine (Put) on growth and oil quality of canola (Brassica napus L.) when exposed to drought stress. Two canola cultivars cvv. Rainbow and Dunkeld were grown under natural environmental conditions. Drought stress was imposed for 10d during flowering (90 days after sowing) until the soil moisture content decreased from 22 \% -9 \% . The growth regulators salicylic acid and Putrescine were applied @ 10 -5 mol/L as foliar spray 3 days after drought induction. Drought stress significantly reduced leaf relative water content (LRWC), chl a, chl b, carotenoids and soluble proteins but augmented the leaf proline, seed glucosinolates and oil erucic acid (C22:1) contents. Growth regulators were highly effective in ameliorating the adverse effects of drought stress on both the canola cultivars. The applied growth regulators maintained the water budget of canola plants, augmented the accumulation of osmolyte proline and protected photosynthetic pigments from adverse effects of drought stress. The SA was effective to reduce the drought induced accumulation of glucosinolates and erucic acid in canola oil and both the growth regulators overcame the drought induced decrease in oleic acid (C18:1). It is inferred that SA is economical and environment friendly alternative and can be implicated to improve the plant growth and oil quality of canola in current scenario of drought and climate change. Keywords: Brassica napus, Canola, Drought stress, Growth, Oil quality, Plant growth regulators Citedy By: 0 Effect of sowing dates and picking intervals at boll opening percent, yield and fiber quality of cotton cultivars. Author: Deho, Z. A., Laghari, S., Abro, S. and AndFakhuruddin, S. D. Khanzada Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2012--Pages 288--293 Abstract: With rising temperature and changing raining patterns, climate change brings forward new threats for cotton cultivation in Sindh. During 2010-11, unexpected rains caused damage to the ripe cotton crop and caused heavy losses in seed cotton, cottonseed germination and lint quality. An experiment was conducted on different sowing dates viz. 15th April, 01st May, 15th May and 01st June and four picking at various boll opening percent. The sowing on May 1st produced the highest boll weight (2.83g) seed index (8.74g), seed cotton yield (3032 kg ha-1), micronaire (4.19) and seed germination percentage (64.86 \% ). In varieties, Sadori produced more boll weight (2.57 g) with seed index (7.46 g), ginning out turn (38.01 \% ), micronaire (4.19) and seed germination (66.35 \% ); whereas picking at various boll opening percent showed higher boll wt. (3.63 g), seed index (8.72), seed cotton yield (3302 kg ha-1), ginning out turn percent (35.79 \% ) in 50 \% boll opening. The higher seed germination percent was recorded in 70 \% boll opening. Keywords: Boll opening, Fiber quality, Gossypium hirsutum, Seed maturity Citedy By: 0 Soil management in mitigating the adverse effects of climate change Author: Bhatti, A. and Khan, M. M. Journal: Soil \& Environment,Vol.31 (1), 2012--Pages 1--10 Abstract: Emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) from various sources into the atmosphere causes rise in air temperature. This addition of GHGs has a great impact on the environment. Among the GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2) is the major contributor. A variety of options exists for mitigation of GHGs emissions in agriculture. The most prominent options are improved soil management practices viz. integrated plant nutrient management, precision agriculture (variable rate fertilizer technology), use of nitrification inhibitors, crop residue management, moisture restoration and restoration of crop productivity of degraded lands, which increase crop production per unit area, enhancing crop production and withdraw atmospheric CO2 through enhanced photosynthesis. This paper shows that such improved soil management practices can restore the crop productivity of marginal lands and purify the air by withdrawing atmospheric CO2. Keywords: Atmosphere, Climate Change, GHGs, Mitigating, Temperature Citedy By: 0 Identification of glacial flood hazards in Karakoram range using remote sensing technique and risk analysis. Author: Ashraf, A., Roohi, R., Naz, R. and Mustafa, N. Journal: Science Vision,Vol.16 (0), 2012--Pages 71--80 Abstract: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are great hazard for the downstream communities in context of changing climatic conditions in the glaciated region of Pakistan. The remote sensing data of Landsat ETM+ was utilized for the identification of glacial lakes susceptible to posing GLOF hazard in Karakoram Range. Overall, 887 glacial lakes are identified in different river-basins of Karakoram Range, out of which 16 lakes are characterized as potentially dangerous in terms of GLOF. The analysis of community \& rsquo;s response to GLOF events of 2008 in the central Karakoram Range indicated gaps in coordination and capacity of the local communities to cope with such natural hazards. A regular monitoring of hot spots and potential GLOF lakes along with capacity- of local communities and institutions in coping future disaster situation is necessary, especially in the context of changing climatic conditions in Himalayan region. Keywords: Climate change, Flood hazards, GLOF hazard, Glacial lakes, Karakoram, Remote sensing, Risk analysis Citedy By: 0 Effect of climate change on apple (Malus domestica var. ambri) production: A case study in Kotli Satian, Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Author: Asghar, A., Ali, S. M. and Yasmin, A. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (6), 2012--Pages 1913--1918 Abstract: Study was undertaken to investigate the long term and short term effect of climate change on apple production in Kotli Sattian area of Rawalpindi District, using Malus domestica var. Ambri L. as an indicator. Climate data for previous 30 years (i.e. 1979-2009) was correlated with net apple production per year. The study also explored other supporting ecological factors like metal content analysis and current soil status (pH, moisture content, organic matter, soil texture) of the orchard \& rsquo;s soil. This investigation revealed that all physico-chemical parameters were supporting production but it declined mainly due to drastic climate change aspects including unusual seasonal variations, elongated summer periods and unusual rainfall periods. In context of questionnaires results, an overwhelming number of farmers (91 \% ) were of the opinion that climate change was the main factor behind decline apple production. The case study served as an effort to bring awareness in the local farmers about the devastating effects of climate changes to help them and improve apple production in Pakistan through enhanced agricultural practices. Keywords: Apple production, Climate change, Kotli Satian, Malus domestica, Pakistan, Rawalpindi Citedy By: 0 Physiological attributes based resilience of wheat to climate change. Author: Fayyazul-Hassan, M. Ahmed, Aslam, M. A. and Aslam, M. Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.14 (3), 2012--Pages 407--412 Abstract: Climate change may affect wheat positively or negatively when global warming is likely to increase evapotranspiration (ET) and decrease crop physiological functions. More often droughts are being encountered in Pothwar because of high ET and low precipitation in the form of rainfall. The impact of climate change on physiological attributes [Net photosynthesis(An), stomatal conductance(gs) and transpiration (E)] of spring wheat in Pothwar was studied through field experiments conducted at National Agriculture Research Centre (NARC), Islamabad, Barani Agriculture Research Institute (BARI), Chakwal and at farmer \& rsquo;s field Talagang over two years (2008-2009 \& 2009-2010). The treatments consisted of five planting windows, three genotypes arranged in Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) factorial replicated four times. The results revealed that changing environment and sowing dates changed the adaptability pattern of wheat crop at three locations, because of change in the temperature and rainfall over the phenological stages of wheat. The reduction in net photosynthetic rate during 2009- 2010 was 21 \% compared to 2008-2009, while among locations 20 \% decrease in An was recorded at Talagang from maximum value at Islamabad. The gs dropped to 50 \% during 2009-2010 due to temperature and moisture stress, while 92 \% reduction in gs was recorded at Talagang compared to highest value. However, transpiration rate dropped to 71 \% during 2009-2010, while among locations crop showed minimum transpiration (79 \% less than maximum) at Talagang. At Chakwal significant decrease in crop physiological parameters declined the grain yield. Talagang being the low rainfall and relatively higher temperature area of Pothwar produced the lowest yield due to drop in physiological functions of crop and reduced LAD and LAI. Findings of the present study provided support for further physiological investigations and potential strategy for minimizing the climate risk especially in rainfed agriculture. Keywords: Climate change, Leaf area duration, Net photosynthesis, Transpiration, Wheat Yield, Pothwar Citedy By: 0 Innovative solutions to reduce threats affecting biodiversity conservation. Author: Al-Eisawi, D. M. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (SI), 2012--Pages 157--163 Abstract: Biodiversity threats are becoming much more adverse than ever been. Accordingly, the conservation tasks are becoming more difficult to achieve especially, with the worse situation of global warming and climate change. Various methods can be summarized under the major themes of conservation known as In-Situ and Ex-Situ conservation. However, everyday there are certain creative methods, that are considered very creative, but most are still listed as subdivisions of the classical methods. In this paper, some classical conservation methods are reviewed and lessons learned from nature will be introduced which might have an impact on our understanding of plant conservation. The examples of conservation will be dealing mostly with plants growing in the desert and dry ecosystem. Plants species growing under little amounts of rainfall reaching 70 mm / year, as well as shifting of the flowering behavior of other species are used as examples of innovation solutions for conservation. Keywords: Biodiversity, Conservation solutions, Threats Citedy By: 0 Climate change scenario: From where to start Author: Ahmed, M. and Shaukat, S. S. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2012--Pages 227--231 Abstract: The present paper briefly reviews various natural reasons responsible for climatic change in geological time. It also describes anthropogenic factors resulting in global warming since last two centuries. Evidences of recent climatic changes indicate some challenges which may be encountered by people of Pakistan. Many papers suggested that Dendrochronology (Tree-ring science) could be a solution. It may not only describe the climatic variation of recent past (500 to 1000 years) but future trends of climate may also be predicted using this applied, rapidly growing and multidisciplinary science. It is also suggested that reconstruction of past climatic history should be the first step to prepare ourselves in a climatic change scenario. Successful application of tree-ring to solve hydrological problems in Pakistan has also been mentioned. Keywords: Climatic change, Dendrochronology, Past climatic variations, Prediction, Proxy record, Pakistan Citedy By: 0 Remote sensing and GIS application in wetland change analysis: Case study of Kallar Kahar. Author: Ahmad, S. S. and Erum, S. Journal: Science, Technology and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2012--Pages 251--259 Abstract: Wetlands are the one of the naturally occurring habitat. They provide invaluable biodiversity resources, aids in water quality improvement, support ground water recharge, help in moderating climate change and supply flood control but they are deteriorated greatly due to economic development and population growth. In the present analysis, the object-based approach of ‘ENVI' is presented to derive the change detection inventory information for Kallar Kahar Wetland using Quick bird imagery and Corona imagery. According to the results, agricultural and shrub area has reduced by 43 \% and 49 \% respectively whereas there has been an increase in the water-body, uncultivated/soiled area, orchard and built-up area by 40 \% , 53 \% , 79 \% and 38 \% , respectively. In order to analyse the change detection of Wetlands using very high resolution satellite images, the outcome of the analyses is presented which can help in decision making for the purpose of land development and further assess the implications of the observed changes in the area for making appropriate recommendations. Keywords: GIS, Kallar Kahar Lake, Land cover changes, Land use, Object-based analysis, Pakistan, Remote sensing, Satellite images, Wetland Citedy By: 0 Decline of conifer forest cover in Pakistan: A GIS approach . Author: Ahmad, S. S., Abbasi, Q., Jabeen, R. and Shah, M. T. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.44 (2), 2012--Pages 511--514 Abstract: Deforestation is one of the obstinate environmental problems globally. Pakistan, being a developing nation also encompasses crisis of depletion of forest reserves. The rising climate change consequences remain the primary culprit behind this phenomenon. The present study intends to focus attention on one of the threatened vegetation types, the Conifer forests and their consequent reduction in area during the last two decades. GIS techniques have been employed to analyze the change detection in various regions and provinces of Pakistan. The results of current study indicated that Conifer forests have been declining at the rate of 1.27 \% per annum since 1992, showing negative trends due to various causes associated with climate change i.e. increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall. So, the need for the conservation of these forests should be the basic task to accomplish order to avoid their vulnerability against various environmental and socio economic disturbances. Keywords: Biodiversity loss, Conifer forest, Deforestation, Environmental issues, GIS, Pakistan, forest cover Citedy By: 0 Responses of cultivated plants and some preventive measures against climate change Author: Ulukan, H. Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.13 (2), 2011--Pages 292--296 Abstract: World previously underwent four major disasters and another disaster is expected due to rapidly occurring climate change. The majority of rays of light, which reach the ground from the sun in (6-8 min) cause greenhouse effect and increase the earth temperature since they are not reflected back. With climate change, polar ice-caps melt and flow into the ocean, the level of the sea raises, fresh water reserves are decreasing (due to the increase of salt water) and ecosystem components, which are essential for life and biological diversity are eroding. The organisms are forced to migrate to regions, which are lowly affected by climate changing. The resulting species and habitat shifts result in some organisms (Tarantula spp., Castanea spp., Malus floribunda, etc.), whose natural habitat is humid regions, such as tropical and coastal regions, can be encountered in temperate and inland regions (e.g., Turkey). Many great and famous lakes and wetlands disappeared (e.g., Aral, Salda, Meke Lakes) and snow and ice on many mountains has melted (e.g., Mount of Kilimanjaro, Ilgaz Mountains, etc.) in the world. Similarly, the effects of climate change on cultivated plants (C3, C4, CAM) are dramatic and this issue has been examined physiologically and agronomical. It is suggested that concerned institutions should immediately develop necessary plans, programs and collaborative mechanisms to combat climate change effects. Keywords: Agro-morphologic traits, Climate change, Cultivated plants, Preventive measurements Citedy By: 0 Climate change, biodiversity Pakistan Scenario Author: Qureshi, N. A. and Ali, Z. Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant sciences,Vol.21 (25), 2011--Pages 358--363 Abstract: Climate is the major factor which controls the global pattern of vegetative structure, productivity and species composition of plant and animal. Its implications for ecosystems have appalling consequences related economic and social systems. Many plants can reproduce and grow within specific range of temperature and specific amounts of precipitation. Same is the case with the animals and are also dependent on the persistent of their food species. Therefore, climate change can affect the ecosystems and the biodiversity within them in many ways. The changes that have been observed in the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the recent decades have been discussed include few examples of distribution of marine turtles, salt lake wetlands complex and the Indus River ecosystem. Although, biodiversity under threatened due to anthropogenic stresses along with the climate change but the apt management of biodiversity can reduce the blow of climate change. Keywords: Anthropogenic climate change, Community structure, Distribution, Indus River, Marine turtles, Pakistan, Uchalli Wetlands Complex Citedy By: 0 A review on biomass-coal co-combustion: Current state of knowledge Author: Munir, S. Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.47 (4), 2011--Pages 265--287 Abstract: The concept of "Energy from biomass" gained attention in the last decade in the context of clean electricity generation. It is still a developing field because of the unavailability of standard engineering practices in this area. The variations in the chemical composition and physical properties of biomasses have made this task lengthier. There are several parametric studies available in the literature on the co-firing of biomass with coal. The information on agricultural residue co-firing in conjunction with air and fuel staging is scarce. The idea of energy crops for co-combustion to get green energy needs review due to present food shortage crises in the world. Therefore, there is utmost need to explore the energy potential and environmental benefits associated with the agricultural wastes-coal co-firing. The present paper presents a review of the previous work and suggests a strategy for Pakistan to solve energy crises by utilizing its indigenous resources of coal and agricultural waste. Keywords: Bagasse,Biomass,C limate change, Energy, Renewable Citedy By: 0 Ecosystem sustainability, climate change, and rural communities Author: Meadows, P. S. Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant sciences,Vol.21 (25), 2011--Pages 317--332 Abstract: Ecosystem sustainability and rural community uplift are essential to address in terms of the progressive pollution of global ecosystems, rapid urbanisation, and the increasingly severe predictions of climate change. The sustainability of ecosystems in the coastal zone and its wildlife is therefore vital. This review addresses these issues by considering current views on climate change and the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Models show how international, national and local organisations impact on human communities and on ecosystems and wildlife, and how community sustainability is linked with ecosystem sustainability. Research is described on ecosystem sustainability and biodiversity in the coastal zone. This focuses on marine sedimentary ecosystems in the intertidal and sub littoral zone. Colonisation of sediment by living organisms changes the sedimentary ecosystem. Interactions between organisms living in sediment and the physical and chemical properties of sediment are also important. Sediment microorganisms reduce sediment permeability. This reduces in faunal biodiversity. Beds of the cord grass Spartina at the edges of estuaries make water flow turbulent. This alters potential flood risks and riverbank or estuarine erosion. Changes in temperate and tropical aquatic ecosystems have a central role in determining the abundance and sustainability of larger organisms. These organisms (shellfish, finfish, and birds) are used directly by rural communities, and are also important for ecotourism. Ecosystem sustainability is therefore central to coastal zone rural communities and their economies. The education and awareness building of the coastal communities in these issues is therefore vital. Keywords: Climate change, Ecosystem sustainability, Rural communities Citedy By: 0 Relationship of coleoptile length and plant height in winter wheat accessions Author: Liatukas and Ruzgas, V. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Botany,Vol.43 (3), 2011--Pages 1535--1540 Abstract: Climate change prognoses suggest more unpredictable and less favourable conditions for cereal crop establishment in Europe. The development of varieties possessing long coleoptiles could improve winter wheat environmental adaptability. A total of 564 winter wheat control varieties and breeding lines developed basically using European winter wheat germplasm were screened for coleoptile length and plant height during 2004-2009. The filter paper towel method showed significant differences among the accessions. Most of the accessions (50.8 \% ) possessed a coleoptile length ranging between 3.00 and 6.00 cm. The correlation between coleoptile length and plant height was weak in 2005 and 2006 (respectively, r=0.485* \& 0.468*, p \& le;0.01), but medium (respectively, r=0.578* - 0.625*) in 2004, 2007-2009. Accessions screening extent could be reduced selecting accessions with acceptable plant height (85-100 cm). Accessions percentage that fitted to this group ranged from 23.4 \% in 2006 to 67.9 \% in 2009 and average of 6 years was 40.3 \% . Among the 564 tested accessions, 36 breeding lines or 6.4 \% possessed coleoptiles longer than 8 cm but none of them exceeded 10 cm. Plant heights of these accessions ranged from 94 to 118 cm. The 13 accessions possessed acceptable plant height. The lines possessing in pedigree varieties Flair and Pegassos (each in 7 lines) were the most frequent. This data shows that the new winter wheat breeding lines possessing long coleoptiles in combination with acceptable plant height can be developed using European winter wheat varieties. Keywords: Coleoptile, Plant height, Wheat, Winter Citedy By: 0 Vulnerability to climate change: adaptation strategies and layers of resilience in semi arid zones of Pakistan Author: Khan, M. A., Hussain, A., Mehmood, I. and Hassan, S. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Research,Vol.24 (1-4), 2011--Pages 65--74 Abstract: This study aims to identify the effects of climate change on the socioeconomic characteristic and livelihoods of farmers in semi arid zones of Punjab and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces of Pakistan. Data for the study has been taken from various issues of Crop Area Production (by districts) MINFA (Economic Wing), district agricultural departments and meteorological department, Islamabad. Primary data for the study was collected in 2010 by conducting farm level surveys in Kohat and Attock districts. Clusters of six villages were selected from each district for field surveys. Six community representatives and 36 farmers were interviewed by using a set of well-designed questionnaires from each site. Results showed that over last three decades, number of small and tenant farmers increased in the semi-arid zones of Pakistan due to environmental harshness in general and law of inheritance in particular. Due to increase in mean annual temperatures and irregular rain patterns, area under major crops at Kohat and productivity of major crop at Attock decreased. Bivariate correlations between mean seasonal rainfall, area and production of major crops were moderately positive and statistically significant (except for wheat crop at Attock). This means that an increase in rainfall contribute positively towards area under major crops and their production and vice-versa. Farmers perceived a major change in climate at Kohat and a minor change at Attock over time. They reported unsustainability in production practices at Kohat and water management practices at both sites. Main strategies adopted by the farmers to mitigate the effects of climate change were occasional sale of livestock, reduction in consumption expenditures, and migration to nearby cities for non-farm employment. Keywords: Bivariate Correlation, Climate Change, Farmers, Livelihood, Pakistan, Socioeconomics, Vulnerability Citedy By: 0 Bivariate Correlation, Climate Change, Farmers, Livelihood, Pakistan, Socioeconomics, Vulnerability Author: Kazi, A. Q. Journal: Science Vision,Vol.15 (2), 2011--Pages 1--8 Abstract: As a result of limited fossil-fuel resources, slow adoption and propagation of renewable energy technologies, spiraling prices of petroleum products and worsening environmental conditions, due to climate change, every country is faced with the need to define new directions with respect to energy consumption, conservation, and energy-options. These aspects are discussed in some detail in this article, which proposes that a multi-pronged strategy, encompassing (i) a change in overall life style, (ii) energy-efficient construction, distribution and utilization, (iii) effective environment-management and energy-discipline, be adopted to control and conserve energy in the increasing energy-demand scenario. Keywords: Climate change, Energy conservation, Fossil fuel, Renewable energy Citedy By: 0 Aflatoxin contamination in chilies from Punjab Pakistan with reference to climate change Author: Iqbal, S. Z., Bhatti, I. A., Asi, M. R., Bhatti, H. N. and Sheikh, M. A. Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.13 (2), 2011--Pages 261--265 Abstract: High prevalence of liver cancer is caused by aflatoxins in developing countries. The consumption of AFs contaminated foodstuff by humans or animals results in several carcinogenic diseases including liver cancer. Also, there is a need to know base line levels of aflatoxin in crops to know when abnormal concentrations may occur, for example, from climate change. Total aflatoxins were determined in 156 chili samples from Pakistan by reverse phase HPLC with florescence detection in work undertaken in that country. The limits of detection and quantification for aflatoxin B1 and aflatoxin G1 were 0.05 and 0.5 \& micro;g kg-1, while for aflatoxin G2 and aflatoxin B2 they were 0.1 and 0.60 \& micro;g kg-1. Total aflatoxins were determined in whole (n = 78) and ground (n = 78) chilies and the concentration were high in many cases. Aflatoxins were detected in 26 (33 \% ) of whole chilies: concentration range was from 0.00 to 81.5 \& micro;g kg-1. The equivalent values for ground chilies were 31 (40 \% ) and 0.00 to 84.8 \& micro;g kg-1. The percentage of samples greater than the European Union statutory limit for AFB1 and total aflatoxins were 26 and 19 \% , respectively. Keywords: Aflatoxins,Chilies,Climate change,Liver cancer Citedy By: 0 Climate-change aspersions on food security of Pakistan. Author: Iqbal, M. M., Goheer, M. A. and Khan, A. M. Journal: Science Vision,Vol.15 (1), 2011--Pages 15--23 Abstract: The economy of Pakistan is agrarian. The production system is predominantly irrigated that uses 90 \% of the available river-water and provides over 80 \% of agricultural produce. The productive resources of land and water, which are the base for food production, are limited, rather dwindling due, inter alia, to the changing climate. The climate change is exerting pressure on these resources, both directly (e.g. through increased glacier-melt, increased evapo -ranspiration, increased land-degradation, etc) and indirectly (e.g. via enhancing soil processes, such as, denitrification leading to emission of greenhouse gases, and unavailability of plant-nutrients, increasing crop-water requirements, etc). Not only this, but the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events of floods, drought, cyclones, etc., is on the increase with serious consequences for the standing crops apart from immeasurable damage to life and property. These changes are expected to have significant impacts on food security of the country. Global assessment (projections) of the impact of climate change on agriculture suggests-losses in crop yields, reduction of growing-season length, increased water requirements of crops and decreased irrigation water supplies as a result of warmer temperatures. This paper presents results of some studies carried out at GCISC with the help of DSSAT-based crop-simulation models (CERES-Wheat and CERES-Rice) on impacts of climate change on the productivity of two major food crops, wheat and rice, of Pakistan. The paper also discusses food-security prospects of Pakistan towards the end of this century in the light of the abovementioned analyses. Keywords: Cyclones, DSSAT, Economy, Evapo-transpiration, Climate-change, food security, Pakistan Citedy By: 0 Environmental challenges and opportunities for the developing countries Author: Hasibullah Journal: Science Vision,Vol.15 (1), 2011--Pages 1--13 Abstract: Environmental degradation and issues of climate change have attracted world \& rsquo;s attention during the past several decades. Both rich and poor nations are prone to the adverse socio-economic consequences of environmental deterioration and Global Warming. But the poor and developing countries suffer much more than the developed ones. Due to economic compulsions and technological constraints, a large number of developing countries is unable to take firm policy-decisions for quick actions to address the climate and environment-related problems. Most of the challenges in this regard are specific to the developing countries. This article identifies some of these challenges, which pertain to conceptual uncertainties, energy scarcities, disappointment with the multilateral initiatives, weak international cooperation and lack of global direction for the future action. However, some opportunities have also been envisaged despite these challenges. As a major opportunity, the case of nuclear power has been highlighted, which has the potential to address the climate-related problems with appreciable advantage over other carbon emitting energy sources. The role of renewable energy technologies in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions is also important, although these technologies still require further technical advancement and commercial acceptability. International mechanisms to manage nuclear power on global level have good prospects in the future. Policy perceptions for a consensual, legally binding and sustainable post Kyoto Protocol agreement have also been treated with reference to the requirements of the developing countries. The conclusions reemphasize the need of collective global action against the climate change, on urgent basis, and more proactivity on the part of developing countries to draw benefits from the post-Copenhagen negotiations. Developed countries need to enhance cooperation with the developing countries in capacity-building through transfer of technology and financial assistance. Keywords: Climate, Environmental deterioration, Global Warming, Post-Copenhagen Citedy By: 0 Impact of global warming on monsoon variability in Pakistan Author: Ghaffar, A. and Javid, M. Journal: Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences,Vol.21 (1), 2011--Pages 108--111 Abstract: This study is based on fifty years (1951-2000) data of temperature and rainfall from six different stations of Pakistan. The selection of the stations is based on hilly areas that are totally dependant on rains. This study is divided into three parts Pre-Monsoon (April- May), Summer Monsoon (June- August) and Post Monsoon (September- October). Variation trends are analyzed based on the processed data that temperature is increasing during Pre and Post Monsoon while rainfall has over all decreasing trend during the study period. Pakistan needs better prediction of Monsoon, accurate calculation of water storage and losses, particularly for the agriculture use. Keywords: Climate change, Global warming, Monsoon variability, Pakistan, Prediction, Rainfall, Temperature Citedy By: 0 Satellite-Based snowcover distribution and associated snowmelt runoff modeling in Swat River Basin of Pakistan Author: Dahri, Z. H., Ahmad, B., Leach, J. H. and Ahmad, S. Journal: Proceedings of Pakistan Academy of Sciences,Vol.48 (1), 2011--Pages 19--32 Abstract: The snowcover and glaciers of Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region are one of the largest repositories of inland cryosphere outside Polar Regions and obviously the lifeline for the people of sub-continent. However, reliable estimates of the snow area extent and snowmelt runoff have been lacking in this largely inaccessible and data sparse region. This is particularly important in view of the climate change impacts on hydrological resources of the region. Present study utilized GIS, RS and hydrological modeling techniques to estimate spatial and temporal distribution of snowcover; quantified snowmelt and rainfall runoff components; and developed prediction models for snowmelt and river discharges. The results revealed that Swat River Basin of Pakistan is predominantly snowfed, as the annual snowmelt runoff contribution to the total runoff may range 65-75%. A significant effect of snowcover variation was observed on river discharge and snowmelt runoff. Snowcover and associated snowmelt runoff remain highly variable throughout the calendar year. Snowfall usually starts abruptly in September and October months but the following four main winter months (i.e.,November-February) generally bring in most of the snowfall. Snowcover increases from less than 2% of the Basin area in August, only at higher altitudes, to about 64% by the end of January or early February. Snowmelt generally continues throughout the year but contribution of winter snowmelt runoff is generally very low. Unlike snowfall, snowmelt runoff usually progresses gradually and smoothly and is more predictable. The summer snowmelt normally gets momentum in March and increases from around 30-60 m3/sec to 400-760 m3/sec in late June or early July. Thereafter, it declines gradually, reducing to 30-50 m3/sec in December. The December-February runoff normally remains the same. Keywords: GIS, Hydrological modeling, RS,Runoff, Snowcover, Snowmelt Citedy By: 0 Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in mixed cropping system of Punjab Author: Ashfaq, M., Zulfiqar, F., Sarwar, I., Abdul-Quddus, M. and Baig, I. A. Journal: Soil & Environment,Vol.30 (2), 2011--Pages 110--114 Abstract: The climate change has important and measurable effects in Pakistan. The objective of this paper was to measure these effects on wheat productivity in mixed zone of Punjab province. A time series data from 1980-81 to 2008-09 was used to achieve the desired objective. The impact of climate change on wheat productivity was analyzed along with some economic incentives. The results of the analysis have shown that one degree centigrade increase in mean minimum temperature at sowing stage will increase wheat productivity by 146.57 kg ha-1. At vegetation stage the increase in mean maximum temperature will reduce productivity, although non significant, by speeding up vegetative growth and reducing grain development period. At maturity stage, the productivity gain will be 136.63 kg ha-1 as result of one degree centigrade increase in mean maximum temperature. The adequate amount of rainfall increases wheat productivity by 275.77 kg ha-1. The productivity response to economic variables was relatively flat and constant, 94.43 kg ha-1. It was thus concluded that the climate change is the major determinant of wheat productivity at each stage of wheat growth. Keywords: Faisalabad, OLS, Ordinary Least Square, Rainfall, Temperature, wheat productivity, climate change, Punjab Citedy By: 0 Flood Inundation Modeling for Malir Watershed of Karachi Considering Future Mean Sea Level Rise Author: Habib-ur-Rehman, H. A. Bakhsh, Shakir, A. S. and Khan, N. M. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences,Vol.9 (0), 2011--Pages 34--47 Abstract: Karachi is the one of the largest coastal city of Asia \& impacts of sea water level rise are worth studying for betterment of the inhabitants. It is the largest metropolitan of Pakistan with population over 16 million that is expected to reach 27 million by the year 2020. Heavy rainfalls of a high intensity are experienced on occasions with the average annual rainfall varying from 125-250 mm. The urban population along the coast line varies from 10 to more than 7000 persons/km2 which is vulnerable to tropical cyclones as well as resulting floods. There is no fixed cycle for the occurrence of these occasional heavy down-pours. They are dependent upon the local atmospheric disturbances in the sea which occurs from time to time. Rain-storms, cyclones, floods and tidal bores are all natural phenomenon and their recurrence cannot be ruled out. Such natural hazards are responsible for the loss of millions of lives and damages to the properties. Man must therefore, learn to plan and build safely to counteract the devastation which can be caused by these forces of nature. This paper describes the simulation for the extent and depth of flooding in some portion of the Karachi city lying in the catchment area of Malir River due to rainfall event of the year 2007, change in the mean sea level at Karachi coast for the years 2025, 2050, 2075 \& 2100 in accordance with the report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and due to rise of 6m in mean sea level and its backward flow through the estuary of Malir River. A distributed physically based hydrological model named Keywords: Climate Change,Flood Inundation Depths, Flood Modeling, IISDHM,Mean Sea Level Rise, River Malir Citedy By: 0 Climate Change Impact on River Flows in Chitral Watershed Author: Habib-ur-Rehman, A. S. Shakir and Ehsan, S. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences,Vol.7 (0), 2011--Pages 12--23 Abstract: The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth \& rsquo;s near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km 2 which is 13 \% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snowmelt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting \& changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1 o C increase in temperature and 15 \% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 \% . Keywords: Chitral river, Global warming, Indus river basin, River flows, UBC Watershed Model Citedy By: 0 Downscaling ability of PRECIS over Snow-Covered areas of Pakistan Author: Ghulam-Rasul, W. Iqbal Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.7 (14), 2011--Pages 45--51 Abstract: The regional climate models are being used to investigate the future projections of climate change and their impacts in developing and developed countries of the world in the recent era. The present study is carried out to study the downscaling ability of a regional climate model named PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) of Hadley Centre, Meteorological Office, U. K in mountainous regions ofPakistan. The model is applied to the Snow-covered areas of Pakistan with two different horizontal resolutions of 25 km and 50 km to study its ability to simulate the climate of regions of complex topography. The simulations of the model are compared with the observed meteorological data and CRU (Climate Research Unit) gridded data set. The results show that both simulations of PRECIS overestimate mean temperature for the Snow-covered areas of Pakistan. However, the difference between the model \& rsquo;s simulated temperature and the observed temperature is less for the 25 km simulation as compared to that of 50 km simulation. The comparison of the model used altitudes and actual altitudes shows that the main factor for these large biases is the topography of the model. The bias in the model may be decreased by updating the topography of the model which will enhance the confidence in the future predications provided by the model. Keywords: Altitude, Baseline, Mean temperature, PRECIS ,Pakistan, RCM, Snow Citedy By: 0 Impact of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from arid region Author: Abdul-Saboor, U. Shakoor, Ali, I. and Mohsin, A. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences,Vol.48 (4), 2011--Pages 327--333 Abstract: Climate change has become a great challenge for the agrarian economy of Pakistan. A serious threat is to the crop sector which is vulnerable to change in temperature and rainfall. This study traced the impact of climate change on the agriculture of arid region by employing a cross sectional data collected through a structured questionnaire in Rawalpindi division in addition to using time series data of climatic variables obtained from metrological stations. A Ricardian approach was operated to test the relationships between Net Farm Revenue (NFR) and climate across the arid region. Wheat crop was the core of the subject matter. It was found that temperature increase has significant negative impact on agriculture production. Moreover, an increase in revenue was visualized with the increase in rainfall. The overall extent of negative impact of temperature is greater than the positive effect of rainfall in the region. It was revealed that one percent increase in temperature would lead to loss of Rs. 4180 to the net revenue per annum. Dissemination of new farming techniques including new irrigation methods, new methods of crop farming and adapted cropping pattern would be the appropriate derivatives of 1paradigm shift required in the agriculture sector of arid region. Keywords: Arid region, Climate change, Wheat crop Citedy By: 0 Physicochemical assessment of surface and groundwater quality of the greater Chittagong region of Bangladesh Author: Ahmed, M. J., Haque, M. R., Ahsan, A., Siraj, S., Bhuiyan, M. H. R., Bhattacharjee, S. C. and Islam, S. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Analytical \& Environmental Chemistry,Vol.11 (2), 2011--Pages 1--11 Abstract: The study was carried out to assess surface and groundwater quality of the greater Chittagong (Chittagong and Cox.s Bazar districts) and Chittagong Hill Tracts (Rangamati, Khagrachhari and Bandarban districts) of Bangladesh. To study the various physicochemical and microbiological parameters, surface water samples from the Karnafuli, Halda, Sangu, Matamuhuri, Bakkhali, Naf, Kasalong, Chingri and Mayani Rivers, Kaptai Lake and groundwater samples from almost every Upazilas, smaller administrative unit of Bangladesh, were collected and analyzed. The statistical methods of sampling were used for collecting samples. Samples were preserved using suitable preservation methods. Water samples from the freshwater resources were collected from different points and tide conditions and at different seasons for continuous monitoring during the hydrological years 2008-2009. The collected samples were analyzed for the following parameters: pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), total solids (TS), dissolved oxygen (DO), transparency, acidity, dissolved carbon dioxide, total alkalinity, total hardness, chloride, ammonia-N, hydrogen sulfide, sulphate-S, o-phosphate-P, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), nitrate-N, nitrite-N, total nitrite and nitrate-N, arsenic, iron, manganese, copper, nickel, chromium, cadmium, lead, calcium, magnesium, sodium and potassium using the procedure outlined in the standard methods. Average values of maximum physicochemical and microbiological parameters studied for the Karnafuli River were found higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline. The maximum water quality parameters of Kaptai Lake and other Rivers of Chittagong region were existed within the permissible limits of WHO guideline. The data showed the water quality slightly differs in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon than monsoon season. The concentration of different constituents of most of the groundwater samples were within the permissible limits of BSTI drinking water quality guideline except As, Fe, and Mn. Results of water quality assessment identified the problem areas in respect of arsenic. The results also provided data to understand and quantify the threat of the impact of climate change on freshwater resources of this region. The results also provided data for water quality of surface and groundwater resources of Chittagong region to match national and international standards for drinking, agricultural, industrial and livestock requirements. Keywords: Freshwater resources, Greater Chittagong region, Physicochemical assessment Citedy By: 0 Deforestation analysis of riverine forest of sindh using remote sensing techniques Author: Abbasi, H. U., Baloch, M. A. and Memon, A. G. Journal: Mehran University Research Journal of Engineering and Technology,Vol.30 (3), 2011--Pages 477--482 Abstract: During recent decades the large scale deterioration of forests and natural resources is an eye opener. The degradation of forests and other natural resources has affected the ecology, environment, health and economy. The ecological problems with living organisms such as animals and plants and environmental problems such as increase in temperature and carbon dioxide, these factors have contributed to change in regional climate, health problems such as skin, eye diseases and sunstroke and economic problems such as loss of income to rural population and resources which depend on forests such as livestock. Therefore, it was necessary to carry out land cover/use research focusing on the monitoring and management of the present and past state of forests cover and other related objects using RS (Remote Sensing) technologies. The RS is a way of mapping and monitoring the changes taking place in forests cover and other objects on a continuing basis. Sukkur and Shikarpur riverine forests are vanishing quickly due to the construction of barrages /dams on upper streams to produce hydroelectricity and irrigation installations which reduce the discharge of fresh water into the downstream Indus basin. Moreover, anthropogenic activities, livestock population, increased grazing, load and illegal tree cutting have contributed to this. The riverine forests are turning into barren land and most of the land is used for agriculture. These uncontrolled changes contribute to climate change and global warming. These changes are difficult to monitor and control without using RS technology. Assessment of deforestation of the Sukkur and Shikarpur to find temporal changes in the forests cover from April, 1979 to April, 2009 is presented in this paper. The integrated classes such as water body, grass/agriculture land, dry/barren land and forest cover maps show the temporal changes taking place in the forests cover for the last 30 years period. RS has been employed in the present study to assess deforestation. The results show significant changes in sub-tropical forests cover; the overall forests cover in April, 1979 was 22.67 \% , April, 1992 17.38 \% , April, 1998 12.28 \% , April, 2000 6.15 \% , April, 2006 7.51 \% , and April, 2009 5.97 \% . The overall change observed in forest area is 25.07 \% . Keywords: Analysis deforestation, Land use cover remote sensing, Landsat, Maximum likelihood algorithm, Riverine Forest Sindh, Supervised classification method, Sukkur, Shikarpur Citedy By: 0 Projections of crop water requirement in Pakistan under global warming. Author: Naheed, G. and Rasul, G. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages 45--51 Abstract: Climate change has now been globally recognized as a challenging threat to the humanity. The anthropogenic activities are also among the driving forces besides others. The consequent impacts on various sectors, especially the agriculture, are more pronounced. Due to fact that the weather/climate has no political boundaries the developed industrial nations are polluting their regional environment and ecology. In this way the under developed and poor nations, like Pakistan, have to suffer severely. Besides this the availability and reservation of water resources are also a giant challenge in future, on international as well on regional level. Also due to political and strategic relationship to the neighboring countries, water availability would be a big problem for the country in near future. Future projections for climate are showing increasing trend in surface temperatures, which will ultimately augment some agrometeorological elements like reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) etc. The current study is carried out to analyse the subsequent effects of increasing temperatures on ETo and on the agriculture water demand in the country. In the light of climate projections from various authentic sources like IPCC, increasing trends of 1-3°C have been studied which is likely in next 50 years. It has been concluded that the southern half of Pakistan may be the least affected areas in the time to come. However, in northern half, a sharp increase in water demand as compared to the present will appear leading to the enhanced risk of crop failure in rain fed areas where supplementary irrigation is not available. This study will help in crop monitoring and in the assessment that how much water available in future for crops; which type of crops would suit the climate, Better management and building of new water reservoirs may help to cope the situation for an improved agriculture growth. Keywords: Agrometeorology, Anthropogenic activities, Climate change, Evapotranspiration, Global warming, Pakistan, Temperature, Water requirement Citedy By: 0 New Pakisaurus (Pakisauridae, Titanosauria, Ssauropoda) remains, and Cretaceous Tertiary (K-T) boundary from Pakistan. Author: Malkani, M. S. Journal: Sindh University Research Journal,Vol.42 (1), 2010--Pages 39--64 Abstract: Pakisaurus remains has been found from the latest Cretaceous Vitakri Formation (previous upper member of Pab Formation) in Kinwa, Bor, Top Kinwa, Shalghara, Sangiali, Alam Kali Kakor (north), Zubra, Darwaza, Grut, Dolvahi east, and some other localities of Sulaiman Basin, Pakistan. These fossils provide head to tail and back to foot morphology. Multipurpose tail special with trispinous distalmost caudal centrum of Pakisaurus of Pakisauridae and some or all genera of Pakisauridae and Balochisauridae found from Pakistan provide a new look of titanosaurs. The skull discoveries of Pakisaurus (Marisaurus and Balochisaurus) add the skull diversity of titanosaurs from Pakistan. The Pakisaurus skull represents widely spaced teeth, and fibrous laminations on external surface of jaw and large open internal cells in the interior jaw rami. Due to dearth of cranial data and lack of common associated elements in titanosaurs has left even the most basic skeletal morphology of the clade controversial and has precluded detailed study of its higher and lower level phylogeny, but now Pakistan has this advantage which produced associated cranial, axial and appendicular elements of Pakisaurus (Marisaurus and Balochisaurus). The Pakisaurus, Marisaurus, Balochisaurus, Rapetosaurus, some Argentinean and Mongolian forms have great potential to resolve paleobiogeography, lower and higher level phylogeny of titanosaurs. Cretaceous Tertiary (K-T) boundary is well exposed on the western continental margin of Indo- Pakistan plate like Kirthar and Sulaiman basins, and on the northwestern margin like Kohat and Potwar basins. The K-T boundary sharing formations which are well exposed in the Kirthar and Sulaiman basins are the Late Cretaceous Pab/Vitakri Formation, and Paleocene Sangiali/Khadro Formation, however near to Axial belt the Cretaceous Parh and Mughal Kot formations and Paleocene Dungan Formation. Geological formations below and above the K-T boundary, in the western Salt Range are Chichali and Hangu; in the Surghar Range are Lumshiwal and Hangu; and in the Kohat and Kala Chitta-Hazara areas are Kawagarh and Hangu formations. Cretaceous Chichali/Lumshiwal Formation and Tertiary Siwalik Group represent the Infra Tertiary boundary in the Sheikh Buddin hills and Marawat Range. In Central and Eastern Salt Range, Hazara and Kashmir the boundary is represented between the varying Tertiary rocks with also varying older rocks such as Precambrian, Paleozoic and Mesozoic units. K-T boundary in Pakistan represents wide exposures of marine as well as continental condition. Indus Basin of Pakistan holds a large number of section sites for lateral and vertical rapid environmental/climate change in the Cretaceous greenhouse world. Pakistan has much potential for the study of marine as well as terrestrial Precambrian, Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata, its boundaries, floras and faunas, paleoclimates, extinctions, phylogeny and paleobiogeography. Keywords: Chitral river, Global warming, Indus river basin, River flows, UBC watershed model Citedy By: 0 Development of a weather-type classification scheme for Karachi by using multivariate techniques. Author: Sadiq, N. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.5 (10), 2009--Pages 65--79 Abstract: Weather typing or categorization continues to be popular and numerous methods have been developed over the past century for this investigation. This paper attempts to classify the types of weather for Karachi on the basis of diurnal data according to seasonal classification. The idea of using weather classification in climate change research is inspired by both uncertainties accompanying climate simulation on a regional scale, and the conflicting results of examining long-term instrumental series by traditional statistical methods. Multivariate techniques of Principal component analysis and Cluster analysis are used to obtain different types of weather for each season separately. Calculations show that we have 14, 5, 8, 7 and 8 different weather types for Monsoon, winter, summer, spring and autumn seasons respectively. Noticeable greater variations came into view for monsoon season and winter appears as least varied season. The aim of this research is to investigate the properties of the adopted clustering procedure, the consequences of the modifications introduced, and the physical interpretation of the weather types in terms of meteorological variables. Keywords: Weather Typing, Principal Component Analysis, Cluster Analysis Citedy By: 0 Trend analysis of climate change and investigation on Its probable impacts on rice production at Satkhira, Bangladesh. Author: Rimi, R. H., Rahman, S. Hafizur, Karmakar, S. and Hussain, S. G. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.6 (11), NA--Pages 37--50 Abstract: This study aimed at statistical analysis of the recent trend of climate change and prediction of future climate change scenarios with Global Climate Models (GCMs) and most importantly investigation on the impacts of climate change on rice production. The Satkhira district was taken as the study area, which represented the coastal zone of Bangladesh. There was a statistically non-significant increasing trend of annual maximum and minimum temperature and annual total rainfall through the period of 1950-2006. The trend analysis of seasonal rainfall for the period 1981-2006 could reveal that, from the last two decades the seasonal normal rainfall pattern has been altered. Rainfall in pre-monsoon and winter season had a decreasing trend whereas it had an increasing trend during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Temperature variations had an observable effect on crop yield. The summer crop Aus production was decreasing significantly. The production of Boro rice, a winter crop is increasing significantly with the increase of lowest minimum temperature. The inter-annual variation in the amount of winter season rainfall was little. Boro production, therefore, was insignificantly affected by this variable. However, correlation between the production and climatic variables was not statistically significant. In case of the future climate change prediction, GFDL-TR predicted delta values ranging from 1.1 to 1.7°C for 2050, while it varied from 1.5 to 2.3°C for 2070. Whereas, UKTR suggested mean temperature increase was 1.5 to 2.1°C in 2050 and 1.2 to 2.7°C in 2070. According to HadCM2 generated delta values, temperature would increase 1.3 to 2.9°C in 2050 and 1.7 to 4.0°C in 2070. It could be seen that different GCMs predicted different sets of values for rainfall increase (or decrease). Among the three GCMs, GFDL-TR predicted milder changes while HadCM2 suggested severe changes and the values increased with time. In case of rainfall, GFDL-TR and UKTR both predicted a decreasing tendency in future during winter season (DJF). However, HadCM2 suggested that there would be higher precipitation (35.6 \% increase in 2050 and 48.9 \% increase in 2070) during the winter season (DJF), which will be beneficial for agriculture. Different crop responded differently under different climate change scenarios. Yield of Boro was reduced from 3.47 to 48.64 \% in calcareous soils, while, it was increased from 0.16 to 16.47 \% in noncalcareous soil conditions. In case of T. Aman, mainly increased yields (up to 49 \% ) could be observed under rainfed conditions in future climate change scenarios. However, there was also declining trend of yields ranging from 1 to 12 \% . The most detrimental effects were observed in case of T. Aus. The yield decreased in all soil conditions and future climate scenarios. The per cent yield difference decreased from at least 5 \% up to 42 \% . In most cases, irrespective of crops and GCMs, climate change would have negative impact. Therefore, in the event of climate change the cropping pattern of the region may change considerably. Agriculture in Bangladesh is already under pressure both from increasing demands for food, and from problems of agricultural land and water resources depletion. The prospect of global climate change makes the issue particularly urgent. Keywords: GCMs, GFDL-TR, HadCM2, UKTR, statistical analysis, climate change, rice production Citedy By: 0 Climate change and water resources management in Pakistan. Author: Hussain, M. Journal: Environ Monitor,Vol.9 (6), 2009--Pages 26--31 Abstract: Climate change is global phenomenon. United Nations has constituted Inter Governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). 155 countries have signed Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Climate change is mainly manifested by global warming. Pakistan confronting the similar situation like most of the countries of the world. Meteorological data reveals that winter are rising and the summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9 °C and 1.5 °C by years 2020 and 2050 respectively. Pakistan is blessed with nine ecological zones which exhibit varying impacts. It has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. The EI Nino and La Nina have affected hydrologic regime, surface \& ground water resources, biodiversity and ecosystems in one form or the other. Extreme events in shape of floods, droughts and glacial advances are regularly observed in Pakistan. Other impacts are pollution of water resources, loss of biodiversity, Trans-boundary water conflicts, salinization of coastal areas, desertification and low agricultural production. There is dire necessity of managing the threatened aquatic wealth of Pakistan optimally in order to preserve its quality and quantity. This gigantic task needs adoption of joint strategies and close cooperation on part of nations of the world. Keywords: Climate change, water resources management, Pakistan. Citedy By: 0 Impact of climate variability on snow cover: A case study of Northern Pakistan. Author: Butt, M. J. and Iqbal, M. F. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.5 (10), 2009--Pages 53--63 Abstract: Climate Change is one of the major factors affecting snow cover distribution. Precipitation in the form of snow, glacier melting and rainfall are the major contributors to the ground water. Snow monitoring mapping, estimation and analysis of snowmelt runoff is time consuming and an intricate process if performed through traditional means. However, the spatial analysis of snow cover area using satellite data is an attractive and effective method. Additionally, the synoptic coverage of satellite sensors offers temporal change detection benefit as well. This study is conducted to analyze the impact of climate variability on snow cover in Northern areas of Pakistan. Satellite data archived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) is used in this study. In addition elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) is used for the production of Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The temporal snow cover is derived from Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). Temperature data of various years is being used to identify the impact of climate variability on snow cover. Temporal analysis of snow cover using spatial analysis tools revealed variations in snow cover of the study area during different months of 2000 and 2006 data. Keywords: MODIS, SRTM, DEM, NDSI, climate variability, snow cover, Northern Pakistan Citedy By: 0 Climate change impacts and vulnerability: A case-study of coastal region of Bangladesh. Author: Amin, S. M. Ashraful and Parveen, G. A. Journal: Environ Monitor,Vol.8 (7--8), 2009--Pages 22--32 Abstract: Climate change is the greatest threat to the mankind in the 21st century. The global climate is changing far more rapidly than anticipated earlier. The challenges of climate change are multi-dimensional, multi-sectoral, immediate as well as long term. The enormous, forceful and devastating cyclone SIDR, hitting the coast of Bangladesh in November 2007, which killed several thousands of people and devastated the lives of over 30 million people, is an obvious recent example of climatic extreme. Developing countries in Asia and Africa including Bangladesh and India have been identified as extremely vulnerable and potentially most impacted countries by climate change. Further more, there is no doubt that the poor are the most vulnerable to the climate risks. This has reconfirmed the IPCC assertion that it is the poor of developing countries who are most vulnerable to the onslaught of climate change and its impacts. The poorest are in the frontline in natural disaster and they are hit the hardest by various climate impacts and natural disasters like cyclones, floods, drought and salinity. Bangladesh is already facing various climate change impacts and climate related extreme events due to its geophysical location (between the great Himalayans Mountains in the North, the Bay of Bengal in the South) and its poor socio-economic development. Recently, the country is experiencing various climate related natural disasters and extreme events like prolonged and repeated floods in the northern and central parts, severe cyclones and salinity in the coastal districts and drought in the northwest parts. These are affecting physical environment, ecosystems, natural resources bases, social and human systems severely almost every year. Climate change has severe adverse impacts on country's poverty situation and livelihoods, agriculture and food, water and health and environmental sustainability. These are putting barriers towards achieving MDGs (reducing hunger and poverty, access to water, health and basic services etc.). With rationale judgment of above mentioned context of climate change and its impacts on Bangladesh, this paper is structured around a three-tired frame-work. First, the scientific background of climate change and global warming along with the consequences of climate change are assessed. Second, the key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Third, an in depth analysis is conducted for coastal zones which have been identified as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Since the coastal districts in Bangladesh (19 districts with about 30 million people) are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as salinity intrusion, sea level rise, coastal flooding, water logging and devastating cyclones, this paper intends to show the probable threats of these climate events over this particular region. Through this paper an attempt has been made to identify the vulnerable areas and most impacted sectors of the coastal region against climate change and current adaptation practices at community level. This would also include the future strategies for climate change adaptation in the coastal region. Keywords: Climate change impacts, vulnerability, coastal region, Bangladesh. Citedy By: 0 Effect of climatic change on evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements. Author: Rehman, S., Khan, M. J. and Tariq, J. A. Journal: Sarhad Journal of Agriculture,Vol.22 (2), 2008--Pages 287--291 Abstract: A study was conducted during 2003-04 to determine the effect of climatic changes on net irrigation requirements (NIR) of wheat and maize in selected zones (Peshawar, D.LKhan, Chitral and Dir) of NWFP. Cropwat simulation model was used to simulate crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirement of selected crops for the past thirty years and the changes in crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements of selected crops compared. Seasonal ETc of wheat increased from 0.4 to 2 \% and NIR from 2 to 25 \% in Dir, Peshawar and D.I.Khan, whereas seasonal ETc for maize increased from I to 3 \% and NIR increased from 4 to 20 \% . It may be concluded that net irrigation requirements of crops changes according to the changes in climatic parameters. Management strategies can be effective in mitigating the adverse impacts of climate changes. Keywords: climatic change, vapotranspiration, net irrigation requirements, Peshawar, D.I. Khan, Chitral , Dir Citedy By: 0 Global warming and melting glaciers along southern slopes of HKH Ranges. Author: Rasul, G., Dahe, Q. and Chaudhry, Q. Z. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.5 (9), 2008--Pages 63--76 Abstract: Glaciers are the most sensitive precursors of climate change due to natural and anthropogenic reasons. Using meteorological and hydrological data in combination with remote sensing data from various sources, the isothermic dynamics of heat in upslope direction was evaluated on pentad basis. It revealed that 30°C isotherm has creeped upward by 725m higher elevation than 28 years before. Frequency and duration of heat waves both have increased by two fold. The rate of increased since 1990 has also been doubled resulting into frequent occurrence of severe thunderstorms and lightening events. As an example of anthropogenic change in climate, ever fastest rate of glacial depletion is presented on Siachen glacier which has lost about 2km of its length and 17 \% of ice mass since 1989. Surface velocity of the glacier has also increased considerably due to the interacting warmer atmosphere with frozen water reserves in the presence of large human concentration. Projected future temperatures would further exaggerate the ice depletion and drift related dynamic process making the situation more and more complex for the planners and dependants. Keywords: Global warming, melting glaciers,HKH Ranges Citedy By: 0 Holocene evolution of the Indus delta under the influence of an intensified summer monsoon. Author: Clift, P. D., Giosan, L., Blusztajn, J., Tabrez, A. R., Danish, M. and Rabbani, M. M. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Oceanography,Vol.2 (2), 2008--Pages 1--10 Abstract: The first scientific drilling of the Indus delta now allows the response of the river to Holocene sea-level rise and climate change to be documented. Despite rising sea levels after the Younger Dryas the Indus Delta continued to prograde, with the shoreline migrating to the SW since 8 ka. A provenance analysis of Holocene sediments from the delta was performed. Bulk sediment Nd isotope analysis reveals a dramatic shift at 1014 ka away from erosion of the Karakoram and towards more sediment flux from the Himalaya. Radiometric Ar-Ar dating of muscovite and U-Pb dating of zircon sand grains indicates that the Lesser rather than the Greater Himalaya eroded more strongly as the summer monsoon intensified after 14 ka. We suggest that it is intensified monsoon precipitation in the Himalaya at 118 ka that increases erosion and results in a pulse of sediment rapidly reaching the Arabian Sea, allowing the Indus delta to prograde during a time of rising sea levels contrary to what might be predicted from sequence stratigraphic models. This millennial-scale variation is preserved in sediments from the delta, but not in the deep Arabian Sea, due to sediment buffering. Keywords: Holocene, Indus delta , summer monsoon, erosion Citedy By: 0 Effect of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium fertilization on the Koenigia islandica growth in the Field. Author: Rashid, Q. and Headley, A. D. Journal: International Journal of Agriculture and Biology,Vol.7 (3), 2005--Pages 406--409 Abstract: Koenigia islandica has a disjunctive Arctic and sub Arctic circumpolar distribution extended Southward to several isolated mountain ranges of Northern Europe, Asia and North America. The population of this plant on the Isle of Skye at altitude 461-726 m and on Isle of Mull at 385-523 m is the most Southerly in Europe and, therefore, the most vulnerable to the climatic fluctuations on numbers and survivorship. Annual habit of K islandica makes it particularly vulnerable to adverse conditions. Increased microbial activity due to elevated temperature in tundra soil provides nutrients, particularly nitrogen, to plants. Therefore, K. islandica will be outcompeted by other plant species. Conservation biologists need to monitor these changes when species cannot adapt to climate change. Keywords: Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Potassium, fertilization, Koenigia islandica, Citedy By: 0 Preserving the Biodiversity. Author: Sheikh, B. A. and Sheikh, S. A. Journal: Pakistan Journal of Agriculture, Agricultural Engineering and Veterinary Sciences,Vol.20 (1), NA--Pages 48--51 Abstract: Although during past two centuries, human activities on earth have led to technological advancements, yet they have not been with out environment deterioration severely affecting our natural resources in a manner which can hardly be rehabilitated. The study of biodiversity is the study of survival on earth. The complexity of factors affecting it includes, the fast deteriorating state of our planet, resulting in resource depletion, habitual destruction, deforestation, species elimination, land degradation, environmental pollution, global climate change and their impact on ecosystem degradation. The maintenance of a balance between living and non-living entities including its conservation vis- a -vis the nature has been discussed in the emerging scenario. Keywords: Biodiversity, human activity, natural resources, deforestation, species elimination, land degradation Citedy By: 0 Climate change: present and future risks to health, and necessary responses Author: A. J. McMichael, E. Lindgren Journal: Journal of internal medicine,Vol.270 (5), 2011--Pages Abstract: McMichael AJ, Lindgren E (The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; and Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden). Climate change: present and future risks to health, and necessary responses (Review). J Intern Med 2011; 270: 401–413. Recent observed changes in Earth’s climate, to which humans have contributed substantially, are affecting various health outcomes. These include altered distributions of some infectious disease vectors (ticks at high latitudes, malaria mosquitoes at high altitudes), and an uptrend in extreme weather events and associated deaths, injuries and other health outcomes. Future climate change, if unchecked, will have increasing, mostly adverse, health impacts – both direct and indirect. Climate change will amplify health problems in vulnerable regions, influence infectious disease emergence, affect food yields and nutrition, increase risks of climate-related disasters and impair mental health. The health sector should assist society understand the risks to health and the needed responses. Keywords: Citedy By: 165 The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis Author: David D. Zhanga, Harry F. Lee,Cong Wangd, Baosheng Lie,Qing Peia, Jane Zhangf, and Yulun Anc Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United state of America,Vol.108 (42), 2011--Pages Abstract: Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Keywords: Citedy By: 180 In Search of Warmer Climates? The Impact of Climate Change on Flows of British Tourists Author: David Maddison Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.49 (1-2), 2001--Pages Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the chosendestinations of Britishtourists. Destinations are characterised in terms of ‘attractors’ includingclimate variables, traveland accommodation costs. These variables are used to explain the currentobserved pattern ofoverseas travel in terms of a model based upon the idea of utilitymaximisation. The approachpermits the trade-offs between climate and holiday expenditure to be analysedand effectivelyidentifies the ‘optimal’ climate for generating tourism. The findings are usedto predict the impactof various climate change scenarios on popular tourist destinations. Keywords: Citedy By: 357 Future change of temperature and precipitation extremes in South America as derived from the PRECIS regional climate modeling system Author: J. A. Marengo, R. Jones, L. M. Alves, M. C. Valverde Journal: International Journal of Climatology,Vol.29 (15), 2009--Pages Abstract: Using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system this study analyses the distribution of extremes of temperature and precipitation in South America in the recent past (1961–1990) and in a future (2071–2100) climate under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. The results show that for the present climate the model simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme temperature and rainfall events when compared with observations, with temperature the more realistic. The observations over the region are far from comprehensive which compromises the assessment of model quality. In all the future climate scenarios considered all parts of the region would experience significant and often different changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. In the future, the occurrence of warm nights is projected to be more frequent in the entire tropical South America while the occurrence of cold night events is likely to decrease. Significant changes in rainfall extremes and dry spells are also projected. These include increased intensity of extreme precipitation events over most of Southeastern South America and western Amazonia consistent with projected increasing trends in total rainfall in these regions. In Northeast Brazil and eastern Amazonia smaller or no changes are seen in projected rainfall intensity though significant changes are seen in the frequency of consecutive dry days. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society Keywords: Citedy By: 331 Climate change at the 4.2 ka BP termination of the Indus valley civilization and Holocene south Asian monsoon variability Author: M. Staubwasser, F. Sirocko, P. M. Grootes, M. S Journal: Geophysical Research Letters ,Vol.30 (8), 2003--Pages Abstract: Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios off the Indus delta reveal climate changes with a multi-centennial pacing during the last 6 ka, with the most prominent change recorded at 4.2 ka BP. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface at that time indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge and suggest that later cycles also reflect variations in total annual rainfall over south Asia. The 4.2 ka event is coherent with the termination of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Thus, drought may have initiated southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The late Holocene drought cycles following the 4.2 ka BP event vary between 200 and 800 years and are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic 14C production rates. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia. Keywords: Citedy By: 304 GIS-based high-resolution spatial interpolation of precipitation in mountain–plain areas of Upper Pakistan for regional climate change impact studies Author: Muhammad Waseem Ashiq, , Chuanyan Zhao, Jian Ni, Muhammad Akhtar Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.99 (239), 2010--Pages Abstract: In this study, the baseline period (1960–1990) precipitation simulation of regional climate model PRECIS is evaluated and downscaled on a monthly basis for northwestern Himalayan mountains and upper Indus plains of Pakistan. Different interpolation models in GIS environment are used to generate fine scale (250?×?250 m2) precipitation surfaces from PRECIS precipitation data. Results show that the multivariate extension model of ordinary kriging that uses elevation as secondary data is the best model especially for monsoon months. Model results are further compared with observations from 25 meteorological stations in the study area. Modeled data show overall good correlation with observations confirming the ability of PRECIS to capture major precipitation features in the region. Results for low and erratic precipitation months, September and October, are however showing poor correlation with observations. During monsoon months (June, July, August) precipitation pattern is different from the rest of the months. It increases from south to north, but during monsoon maximum precipitation is in the southern regions of the Himalayas, and extreme northern areas receive very less precipitation. Modeled precipitation toward the end of the twenty-first century under A2 and B2 scenarios show overall decrease during winter and increase in spring and monsoon in the study area. Spatially, both scenarios show similar pattern but with varying magnitude. In monsoon, the Himalayan southern regions will have more precipitation, whereas northern areas and southern plains will face decrease in precipitation. Western and south western areas will suffer from less precipitation throughout the year except peak monsoon months. T test results also show that changes in monthly precipitation over the study area are significant except for July, August, and December. Result of this study provide reliable basis for further climate change impact studies on various resources. Keywords: Citedy By: 0 Dividing climate change: global warming in the Indian mass media Author: Simon Billett Journal: Climatic change,Vol.99 (1-2), 2010--Pages Abstract: Much research has now been conducted into the representation of climate change in the media. Specifically, the communication of climate change from scientists and policy-makers to the public via the mass media has been a subject of major interest because of its implications for creating national variation in public understanding of a global environmental issue. However, to date, no study has assessed the situation in India. As one of the major emerging economies, and so one of the major greenhouse gas emitters, India is a key actor in the climate change story. This study analyses the four major, national circulation English-language newspapers to quantify and qualify the frames through which climate change is represented in India. The results strongly contrast with previous studies from developed countries; by framing climate change along a ‘risk-responsibility divide’, the Indian national press set up a strongly nationalistic position on climate change that divides the issue along both developmental and postcolonial lines. Keywords: Citedy By: 176 An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security Author: Schwartz, Peter , Randall, Doug Journal: Climate Change ,Vol. (), 2003--Pages Abstract: The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller. We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately. Keywords: Climate, National Security, Weather, Adverse Conditions, Atmospheric Motion, Global, Iterations, Scenarios, Scientists, Soils, United States, Wind Citedy By: 567 Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise through Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surges Author: A Ali Journal: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific,Vol. (), 1996--Pages Abstract: Bangladesh is frequently visited by natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and “norwesters.” Of these, tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges are the most disastrous. There are various reasons for the disastrous effects of cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh. Superimposed on these disastrous effects, climate change and any consequent sea level rise are likely to add fuel to the fire. Arise in temperature is likely to change cyclone activity: cyclone intensity, if not cyclone frequency, may increase. As a result, storm surges may also increase substantially. Sea level rise, an increase in cyclone intensity, and consequent increases in storm surge heights will have disastrous effects on a deltaic country like Bangladesh, which is not much above the mean sea level. This paper examines the climatology of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal for the last 110 years and trends in cyclone frequency and intensity. The phenomenon of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is examined along with the primary reasons for the severity of storm surges in Bangladesh. The paper discusses both qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of rises in temperature on tropical cyclone intensity in Bangladesh. With the use of a mathematical model developed for the simulation of storm surges along the Bangladesh coast, various scenarios of storm surges are developed. Using lower and upper bounds of sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4°C and of sea level rise of 0.3 and 1.0 m (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change standard), the model simulates the maximum possible surges that are likely to occur under these conditions. Keywords: Bangladesh coastal resources storm surges tropical cyclones Citedy By: 191 Antarctica and environmental change - The Southern Ocean benthic fauna and climate change: a historical perspective Author: A Clarke, JA Crame Journal: The Royal Society ,Vol.338 (1285), 1992--Pages Abstract: Environmental change is the norm and it is likely that, particularly on the geological timescale, the temperature regime experienced by marine organisms has never been stable. These temperature changes vary in timescale from daily, through seasonal variations, to long-term environmental change over tens of millions of years. Whereas physiological work can give information on how individual organisms may react phenotypically to short-term change, the way benthic communities react to long-term change can only be studied from the fossil record. The present benthic marine fauna of the Southern Ocean is rich and diverse, consisting of a mixture of taxa with differing evolutionary histories and biogeographical affinities, suggesting that at no time in the Cenozoic did continental ice sheets extend sufficiently to eradicate all shallow-water faunas around Antarctica at the same time. Nevertheless, certain features do suggest the operation of vicariant processes, and climatic cycles affecting distributional ranges and ice-sheet extension may both have enhanced speciation processes. The overall cooling of southern high-latitude seas since the mid-Eocene has been neither smooth nor steady. Intermittent periods of global warming and the influence of Milankovitch cyclicity is likely to have led to regular pulses of migration in and out of Antarctica. The resultant diversity pump may explain in part the high species richness of some marine taxa in the Southern Ocean. It is difficult to suggest how the existing fauna will react to present global warming. Although it is certain the fauna will change, as all faunas have done throughout evolutionary time, we cannot predict with confidence how it will do so. Keywords: Citedy By: 195 Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean Author: A Iglesias, L Garrote, F Flores, M Moneo Journal: Water Resources Management,Vol.21 (5), 2007--Pages Abstract: The Mediterranean region is undergoing rapid local and global social and environmental changes. All indicators point to an increase in environmental and water scarcity problems with negative implications towards current and future sustainability. Water management in Mediterranean countries is challenged these pressures and needs to evolve to reach the target of increasing population with reliable access to freshwater established by the Millennium Development Goals. This paper first reviews and evaluates current and future social and environmental pressures on water resources, including climate change. The results show that pressures are not homogeneous across the region and sectors of water use. Second the paper evaluates the adaptation strategies to cope with water scarcity, including technology, use of strategic groundwater, and management. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for managing the risk of water scarcity based on preparedness rather than a crisis approach. The importance of local management at the basin level is emphasized, but the potential benefits depend on the appropriate multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder coordination. Keywords: water scarcity climate change risk management Mediterranean Citedy By: 313 Climate Change, Poverty and Environmental Crisis in the Disaster Prone Areas of Pakistan Author: Abbass, Zehar Journal: Climate Change and Resilience,,Vol.5 (3), 2009--Pages Abstract: This study was commissioned to review the impact of climate change on Pakistan's rural disaster-prone communities in Badin (Sindh), Rajanpur (Punjab), and Khuzdar (Balochistan). The study's aim was to review community perceptions of the impact of climate change and recommend coping mechanisms for affected communities. The findings will support different organisations and institutions to initiate adaptation programmes. This report has helped Oxfam GB to initiate an adaptation programme in the coastal communities of Pakistan. The findings of the study are remarkably consistent with global, regional, and national climate change projections and alarming clearly show that environmental problems in the three districts are serious and growing, and climate change is exacerbating them. Poor and marginalised communities tend to be those most vulnerable to climate change and least able to cope with weather-related disasters because of lack of access to information and resources to reduce their risk. Keywords: Citedy By: 11 Climate Change Impact on River Flows in Chitral Watershed Author: Abdul Sattar Shakir, Habib -ur- Rehman, Saqib Ehsan Journal: Pakistan Journal of Engineering and Applied sciences,Vol. (), 2010--Pages Abstract: The impact of climate change has always been very important for water resources in the world. In countries like Pakistan where different weather conditions exist, the effects of climate change can be more crucial. Generally, the climate changes are considered in terms of global warming i.e. increase in the average temperature of earth’s near surface air. The global warming can have a strong impact on river flows in Pakistan. This may be due to the melting of snow and glaciers at a higher rate and changes in precipitation patterns. Glaciers in Pakistan cover about 13,680 km2 which is 13% of the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Glacier and Snowmelt water from these glaciers contributes significantly to the river flows in Pakistan. Due to climate change, the changes in temperature and the amount of precipitation could have diversified effects on river flows of arid and semi-arid regions of Pakistan. This paper reviews the existing research studies on climate change impact on water resources of Pakistan. The past trend of river flows in Pakistan has been discussed with respect to the available data. Further, different projections about future climate changes in terms of glacier melting & changes in temperature and precipitation have also been taken into consideration in order to qualitatively assess the future trend of river flows in Pakistan. As a case study, the flows were generated for the Chitral watershed using UBC Watershed Model. Model was calibrated for the year 2002, which is an average flow year. Model results show good agreement between simulated and observed flows. UBC watershed model was applied to a climate change scenario of 1oC increase in temperature and 15% decrease in glaciated area. Results of the study reveal that the flows were decreased by about 4.2 %. Keywords: Citedy By: 11 Climate change: Pakistan must invest in adaptation Author: Abdur Rehman Cheema Journal: Nature,Vol.514 (7522), 2014--Pages Abstract: Floods in Pakistan this year alone have killed hundreds of people, left millions homeless and destroyed crops over tens of thousands of hectares. In its Global Climate Risk Index 2014, the think tank Germanwatch ranked Pakistan third in its list of countries most affected by climate change, after Haiti and the Philippines. Yet Pakistan's climate-change budget for 2013–14 was 44% lower than the previous year's. Furthermore, the federal government has largely devolved responsibility for environmental issues to the provinces, which cannot or will not commit resources to climate-change policies. It is important that the principles of disaster management are simplified so that the public can understand them and question government responses where necessary. Many citizens already realize that towns are being flooded as a result of illegal building on neighbouring floodplains and waterways. Diplomacy in India and Pakistan has secured reciprocal arrangements for flood relief, but this is not enough. Rainfall data need to be coordinated and exchanged between the two countries to improve flood forecasting and disaster-management governance through organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Pakistan and most other developing countries have little influence on actions determined by Western countries to reduce carbon emissions. The best option for developing nations is to offset the negative effects of rising temperatures and extreme events by developing weather-tolerant crops and housing, by planning for effective land use, and by improving energy efficiency. Keywords: Citedy By: 3 Pleistocene Climate Change in Arabia: Developing a Framework for Hominin Dispersal over the Last 350 ka Author: Adrian G. Parker, Journal: The Evolution of Human Populations in Arabia,Vol. (), 2009--Pages Abstract: Environmental change in Arabia has oscillated between climatic extremes throughout the Quaternary period with evidence for ancient pluvials, apparent in the lacustrine sediments, alluvial fans and gravels, paleosols, and speleothems (e.g., McClure, 1976; Schultz and Whitney, 1986; Parker et al., 2006a, 2006b; Lézine et al., 2007; Fleitmann et al., 2007). Conversely, there are numerous signals that Arabia was also subjected to extremes in aridity, most obviously manifested in the expansive sand seas comprising the Nafud, Rub’ al Khali, and Wahiba deserts, as well as fracture calcites from hyperalkaline springs (Clark and Fontes, 1990) and petrogypsic soil horizons (Rose, 2006). Evidence for small eroded lake basins comprising marl terraces and hardened evaporitic crusts, with associated freshwater shells and lithic implements scattered around the edges were reported in the Rub’ al Khali during early exploration of the region (e.g., Philby, 1933; Holm, 1960; Clark, 1989). Occurrences of ancient stone tools near relict lake beds in Arabia provided the first evidence for a rich prehistoric past (Caton-Thompson, 1953; Field, 1958). To date, however, the association between humans and environment is still much in its infancy and the precise relationships between human dispersals into and across Arabia is not fully understood. Both environmental and archaeological research has made significant progress in recent years but, to date, no major synthesis has been attempted which provides the environmental backdrop for assessing hominin emergence within the Arabian peninsula. The aim of this chapter is to present an overview of the variable and shifting landscapes in Arabia during the past 350 ka (isotope stage 9 to the present) with particular emphasis on indicators of pluvial conditions (mostly lacustrine sediments and alluvial sediments along with supporting data from other proxy sources). These data provide a useful framework for understanding the role of the climate in influencing Pleistocene hominin dispersals and occupation across the Arabian Corridor – a critical geographic zone that we now know served as a conduit bridging early human populations in Europe, Africa, and Asia (Parker and Rose, 2008). Keywords: Chronology Climate Change Dispersal Pleistocene Citedy By: 86 A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia Author: AG Parker, AS Goudie, S Stokes, K White… Journal: Quaternary Research,Vol.66 (3), 2006--Pages Abstract: Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the lake was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region. Keywords: Arabia ArchaeologyGeochemistry Holocene Lake levels Abrupt climate change Citedy By: 178 Determinants of the Corporate Decision to Disclose Social Information Author: Ahmed Belkaoui, Philip G. Karpik Journal: Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal ,Vol. (), 1989--Pages Abstract: The decision to disclose social information in annual reports is a voluntary one. A positive model of the factors that may influence firms' decisions to disclose social information is proposed. It is hypothesised that the decision may be affected by (a) social performance, (b) political visibility, (c) financial variables, and (d) economic performance. It is found that the decision to disclose social information is well explained by the model and that the key explanatory variables are social performance and political visibility. Keywords: Accounting theory, Economics, Performance, Models, USA, Company reports Citedy By: 778 Determinants of the Corporate Decision to Disclose Social Information Author: Ahmed Belkaoui, Philip G. Karpik, Journal: Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal ,Vol. (), 1989--Pages Abstract: The decision to disclose social information in annual reports is a voluntary one. A positive model of the factors that may influence firms' decisions to disclose social information is proposed. It is hypothesised that the decision may be affected by (a) social performance, (b) political visibility, (c) financial variables, and (d) economic performance. It is found that the decision to disclose social information is well explained by the model and that the key explanatory variables are social performance and political visibility. Keywords: Accounting theory, Economics, Performance, Models, USA, Company reports Citedy By: 778 Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Future Outlook Author: Ahsan Uddin Ahmed,Mozaharul Alam,A. Atiq Rahman, Journal: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh,Vol. (), 1999--Pages Abstract: The human induced climate change is no longer a theoretical concept. There is a global consensus among scientists, professionals, academics, policy makers and strategists that the globe has already committed to certain degree of change in climate system. Climate change will affect all human and ecological systems and socio-economic development activities. Pressure has been mounting on the global leadership to take necessary steps in response to changes in climate system Keywords: Citedy By: 69 Globalization, Climate Change, and Human Health Author: AJ McMichael Journal: New England Journal of Medicine,,Vol. (), 2013--Pages Abstract: The global scale, interconnectedness, and economic intensity of contemporary human activity are historically unprecedented,1 as are many of the consequent environmental and social changes. These global changes fundamentally influence patterns of human health, international health care, and public health activities.2 They constitute a syndrome, not a set of separate changes, that reflects the interrelated pressures, stresses, and tensions arising from an overly large world population, the pervasive and increasingly systemic environmental impact of many economic activities, urbanization, the spread of consumerism, and the widening gap between rich and poor both within and between countries. Keywords: Citedy By: 242 Climate change and human health: present and future risks Author: AJ McMichael, RE Woodruff, S Hales - The Lancet, 2006 - Elsevier Journal: The Lancet ,Vol.367 (9513), 2006--Pages Abstract: Here is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0·5°C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways—mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies Keywords: Citedy By: 1610 Chapter 10 Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan Author: Amir Nawaz Khan, Journal: Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: An Asian Perspective,Vol. (), 2010--Pages Abstract: Pakistan lies between latitudes 24° 37' N and longitudes 62° 75' E, covering a total land area of 796,096km2. The country shares its borders with Iran to the west, India in the southeast, Afghanistan in the northwest, and China in the north. The Arabian Sea lies to its south (UNISDR, 2005; Khan, 2004d). The country has four provinces: the Punjab, the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Sindh, Baluchistan, and two federally administrated territories – the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Northern Areas. The Northern Areas have been recently given the status of Gilgit-Baltistan province. The structure of the provisional government is still in its formation stage. In addition, the territory of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) is under the administration of the government of Pakistan. Each province or territory is further divided into administrative units known as districts (GOP, 2003; Khan, 2004d). Keywords: Citedy By: 10 Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges Author: Ancha Srinivasan,Rajib Shaw,S. V. R. K. Prabhakar, Journal: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,Vol. (), 2009--Pages Abstract: The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts. It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking, which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’ to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level. Keywords: Local disaster risk reduction planning Climate change Strategic planning Uncertainty Climate task group Citedy By: 66 Socio-Economic and Physical Perspectives of Water related Vulnerability to Climate Change: Results of Field Study in Bangladesh Author: A.M Choudhury1 , D. A. Quadir2 and A. U. Ahmed3 Journal: Science 2005,Vol. (), 2005--Pages Abstract: The present paper deals with the socio-economic perspectives of the water related vulnerability to climate change based upon the data collected from the Selected Hydrological Unit (SHU) through questionnaire survey supported by PRA/FGD and interview with key Informants. The SHU which is situated in the northern part of Bangladesh to the left Bank of the river Brahmaputra (locally named as Jamuna) is highly vulnerable to floods. The analysis of the past climate of Bangladesh shows that the average temperature increases at the rate of 0.16o C/decade. The pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall has increased by about 20 % during the past 30 years. The hydrological observations show that the frequency of severe floods and the intensity have been found to increase during the last 3 decades. The scenarios of climate change as obtained through the analysis of the outputs of HadRM2 regional climate model shows that the annual mean temperature over the region of the SHU is expected to rise by 1.5 and 2.8o C by 2020 and 2050respectively relative to 1990 and the annual precipitation by 9.1 and 22.7% for the above two time levels. The pre-monsoon precipitation would increase by 27 and 70%. The monsoon precipitation is expected to increase by 4.2% and 9.7% for the above two time levels. The SHU is highly vulnerable to severe floods. The lives of the people are seriously affected by the severe floods, dwelling houses are inundated and damaged and the resources such as agriculture, livestock and fisheries also suffer severe damages. People suffer from the lack of shelter, food, medicine and potable water. The increased rainfall is expected to further increase the flood intensity and enhance the vulnerability in the future. The riverbank erosion has been identified as another water related hazard which is more active during the floods. The people are coping to some extent in the agriculture sector. They wait until the peak flood is over for planting of the aman rice which is grown in the monsoon and postmonsoon season. In case, the crops were damaged due to severe floods, the farmers replant the aman rice in the fields as soon as the flood water recedes. It came out from the field information that the farmers do not depend on the aman rice anymore as they have shifted towards the irrigated cultivation in the dry season to recover the crop damages due to floods in the monsoon season. However, they have not abandoned the aman rice cultivation, because if there is no flood they can get a very good harvest. As regards the adaptation in other sectors such as housing, livestock, etc. Strong houses need to be built by raising the lands above flood level so that neither the dwelling houses nor the lawn of the houses are affected. In that case the livestock will not be affected anymore. This will solve the problems permanently and reduce the sufferings. However, a huge majority of the people lives below the poverty line and can not afford these 2 expensive coping options. Thus poverty alleviation is identified as a crucial means of increasing the adaptive capacity of the people. Keywords: Citedy By: 38 Modeling snowmelt-runoff under climate scenarios in the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan Author: AA Tahir, P Chevallier, Y Arnaud, L Neppel Journal: Journal of Hydrology,Vol.409 (1-2), 2011--Pages Abstract: A major proportion of flow in the Indus River is contributed by its snow and glacier-fed river catchments situated in the Karakoram Range. It is therefore essential to estimate the snowmelt runoff from these catchments (with no or scarce precipitation records) for water resources management. The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) integrated with MODIS remote-sensing snow cover products was selected to simulate the daily discharges and to study the climate change impact on these discharges in the Hunza River basin (the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchment of the Indus River). The results obtained suggest that the SRM can be used efficiently in the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchments of the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB). The application of the SRM under future climate (mean temperature, precipitation and snow cover) change scenarios indicates a doubling of summer runoff until the middle of this century. This analysis suggests that new reservoirs will be necessary for summer flow storage to meet with the needs of irrigation supply, increasing power generation demand, flood control and water supply. Keywords: Upper Indus River Basin (UIB), Hunza River basin, MODIS Water resources management Snowmelt-Runoff Model, Climate change Citedy By: 85 Climate change perspective in Pakistan Author: AB Farooqi, AH Khan, H Mir Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.2 (3), 2005--Pages Abstract: The objective of the study is to assess the past climate changes and compute the projected changes in different Agro-climatic regions of country for next half century using Regional and Global Climate models. In view of these changes, vulnerabilities of different regions may be accessed and suitable coping mechanisms/ adaptation strategies be proposed. Analysis of past depicts that our climate is changing. The rate of change and the nature of the resulting impacts will vary over time and across the country, affecting all aspects of our life. In conjunction with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it will also be necessary to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. Understanding what climate change will mean for Pakistan is only one step in that process. Future changes in climate of the magnitude projected by most global climate models would cause a major impact on our water resources, and subsequently affect food supply, health, industry, transportation and ecosystem sustainability. Problems are most likely to arise to southern parts of country where the resource is already under stress, because that stress would be exacerbated by changes in supply or demand associated with climate change. Previous record and projections by GCMs and RCMs depicts that extreme events (drought and flooding) would become more frequent and of greater magnitude in different parts of the country. These extreme events would place stress on existing infrastructure and institutions, with potentially major economic, social and environmental consequences. Therefore, particular emphasis needs to be placed on the impacts/mitigation of such extremes Keywords: Citedy By: 79 The geological methane budget at Continental Margins and its influence on climate change Author: A. G. Judd,M. Hovland, L. I. Dimitrov,S. García Gil,V. Jukes Journal: GEOFLUIDS ,Vol.2 (2), 2002--Pages Abstract: Geological methane, generated by microbial decay and the thermogenic breakdown of organic matter, migrates towards the surface (seabed) to be trapped in reservoirs, sequestered by gas hydrates or escape through natural gas seeps or mud volcanoes (via ebullition). The total annual geological contribution to the atmosphere is estimated as 16–40 Terragrammes (Tg) methane; much of this natural flux is ‘fossil’ in origin. Emissions are affected by surface conditions (particularly the extent of ice sheets and permafrost), eustatic sea-level and ocean bottom-water temperatures. However, the different reservoirs and pathways are affected in different ways. Consequently, geological sources provide both positive and negative feedback to global warming and global cooling. Gas hydrates are not the only geological contributors to feedback. It is suggested that, together, these geological sources and reservoirs influence the direction and speed of global climate change, and constrain the extremes of climate. Keywords: Citedy By: 268 Worldwide Testing of the Snowmelt Runoff Model with Applications for Predicting the Effects of Climate Change Author: A Rango Journal: Hydrology Research,Vol.23 (3), 1992--Pages Abstract: The Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), a simple degree-day model, has been applied to over 50 basins in 15 countries around the world. Where results have been reported, the average R2 has been 0.84 and the average seasonal volume difference, Dv, has been 3.8 %. The testing of SRM has taken place on basins in different climatic regions, thus setting the stage for using SRM in evaluations of the hydrological effects of climate change. A method for using SRM in evaluations of climate change has been established and tested on several basins. Initial results show some potentially serious problems involving water supply, flooding, and drought. More testing in a variety of climatic regions is necessary along with improved specification of the changes in temperature and precipitation by region. Keywords: Citedy By: 79 Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis Author: Andrew K. GithekoI, Steve W. LindsayII, Ulisses E. ConfalonieriIII, Jonathan A. Patz Journal: Bulletin of the World Health Organization,Vol.78 (9), 2000--Pages Abstract: Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0–3.5 °C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14–18 °C at the lower end and about 35–40 °C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. Keywords: greenhouse effect; disease vectors; disease malaria, transmission; Lyme disease, leishmaniasis, communicable diseases, health surveys Citedy By: 51 Enteric fermentation and ruminant eructation: the role (and control?) of methane in the climate change debate Author: Andy Thorpe, Journal: Climatic change, 2009,Vol.93 (3-4), 2009--Pages Abstract: Anthropogenic processes are responsible for between 55% and 70% of the estimated 600 Tg of methane that is released annually into the atmosphere, with enteric fermentation a major contributor to emissions in a number of countries. This paper therefore reviews current levels of CH4 discharges by both animal type and country, and shows how the growth or decline in national herds over the last 20 years has significantly altered the global composition of enteric emissions. As developing countries are now responsible for almost three-quarters of such emissions, this has important implications in terms of mitigation strategies—particularly as such countries are presently outside the remit of the Kyoto Protocol. Keywords: Citedy By: 62 Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts Author: Anthony J. McMichael,R. Sari Kovats, Journal: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,Vol.61 (1), 2000--Pages Abstract: Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. Keywords: climate change El Niño Southern Oscillation public health adaptation primary prevention Citedy By: 59 Modeling Vulnerability and Resilience to Climate Change: A Case Study of India and Indian States Author: Antoinette L. Brenkert, Elizabeth L. Malone Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.72 (1-2), 2005--Pages Abstract: The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socio-economic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed. Keywords: Citedy By: 206 Climate change risk: an adaptation and mitigation agenda for Indian cities Author: Aromer Revi Journal: Environment and Urbanization,Vol.20 (1), 2008--Pages Abstract: This paper considers the needed adaptation and mitigation agenda for cities in India — where the urban population is likely to grow by around 500 million over the next 50 years. It considers the likely changes that climate change will bring in temperature, precipitation and extreme rainfall, drought, river and inland flooding, storms/storm surges/coastal flooding, sea-level rise and environmental health risks, and who within urban populations are most at risk. It notes the importance for urban areas of an effective rural adaptation agenda — especially in maintaining the productivity and functioning of rural systems. It highlights the importance of today's infrastructure investments, taking into account climate changes, given the long lifespan of most infrastructure, and the importance of urban management engaging with changing risk profiles. One important part of this is the need to connect official adaptation initiatives to the much-improved natural hazard risk assessment, management and mitigation capacity that responded to major disasters. The paper ends by describing a possible urban climate change adaptation framework, including changes needed at the national, state, city and neighbourhood levels, and linkages to mitigation Keywords: Citedy By: 251 Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers Author: Arun B. Shrestha,Raju Aryal, Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (1), 2011--Pages Abstract: Climate change can be particularly hard-hitting for small underdeveloped countries, relying heavily on natural resources for the economy and livelihoods. Nepal is one among these countries, being landlocked, with diverse physiographical characteristics within a relatively small territory and with rugged terrain. Poverty is widespread and the capacity of people and the country to cope with climate change impact is low. The country is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The main occupation is agriculture, largely based on rain-fed farming practices. Tourism based on high altitude adventures is one of the major sources of income for the country. Nepal has a large hydropower potential. While only 0.75% of the theoretical hydropower potential has been tapped, Nepal can greatly benefit from this natural resource in the future. Climate change can adversely impact upon water resources and other sectors of Nepal. The source of water is mainly summer monsoon precipitation and the melting of the large reserve of snow and glaciers in the Himalayan highlands. Observations show clear evidences of significant warming. The average trend in the country is 0.06°C per year. The warming rates are progressively higher for high elevation locations. The warming climate has resulted in rapid shrinking of majority of glaciers in Nepal. This paper presents state-of-knowledge on the glacial dynamics in the country based on studies conducted in the past in Shorong, Khumbu, Langtang, Dhaulagiri and Kanchenjunga regions of Nepal. We present recent trends in river flow and an overview of studies on expected changes in the hydrological regime due to climate change. Formation, growth and likely outburst of glacial lake are phenomena directly related to climate change and deglaciation. This paper provides a synopsis of past glacial lake outburst floods impacting Nepal. Further, likely impacts of climate change on other sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, human health and livelihoods are discussed. Keywords: Himalayas Glacial lake outburst flood Glacier fluctuations River discharge Livelihoods Citedy By: 152 Corporate environmental and climate change disclosures: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh Author: Ataur Rahman Belal, , Md. Rezaul Kabir, , Stuart Cooper, , Prasanta Dey, , Niaz Ahmed Khan, , Taiabur Rahman, , Mohobbot Ali, Journal: Research in Accounting in Emerging Economies,Vol.10 (), 2010--Pages Abstract: Purpose – In this article, we examine the nature and the extent of corporate environmental and climate change disclosures in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach – For this purpose, we have undertaken a content analysis of annual reports related to the year 2008 and websites of the 100 largest companies (according to market capitalization) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. We have used 24 content analysis categories to capture the relevant disclosures related to climate change and other environmental issues. Findings – Key findings of our analysis suggest that the level of environmental and climate change disclosures is very low in Bangladesh. Although 91% of companies made disclosures in at least one category, most companies disclosed information only on the “energy usage” category, which is a mandatory requirement. Even fewer companies made disclosures in the specific areas of climate change. No disclosure was made in the significant categories such as GHG emissions. The second most popular category related to climate change was adaptation measures. Among the other environmental disclosures, a significant finding is that only 5% of (website 6%) companies disclosed that they had an effluent treatment plant. Closer examination of the nature of disclosures suggests that most of the disclosures are positive and descriptive in nature. Originality/value – As far as we are aware, this is the first study of its kind in Bangladesh which systematically examines corporate climate change disclosures as a particular focus of researc Keywords: Corporate environmental disclosures, climate change disclosures, developing countries, Bangladesh Citedy By: 18 Enhanced temperature variability in high-altitude climate change Author: Atsumu Ohmura, Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.110 (4), 2012--Pages Abstract: In the present article, monthly mean temperature at 56 stations assembled in 18 regional groups in 10 major mountain ranges of the world were investigated. The periods of the analysis covered the last 50 to 110 years. The author found that the variability of temperature in climatic time scale tends to increase with altitude in about 65 % of the regional groups. A smaller number of groups, 20 %, showed the fastest change at an intermediate altitude between the peaks (or ridges) and their foot, while the remaining small number of sites, 15 %, showed the largest trends at the foot of mountains. This tendency provides a useful base for considering and planning the climate impact evaluations. The reason for the amplification of temperature variation at high altitudes is traced back to the increasing diabatic processes in the mid- and high troposphere as a result of the cloud condensation. This situation results from the fact that the radiation balance at the earth’s surface is transformed more efficiently into latent heat of evaporation rather than sensible heat, the ratio between them being 4 to 1. Variation in the surface evaporation is converted into heat upon condensation into cloud particles and ice crystals in the mid- and high troposphere. Therefore, this is the altitude where the result of the surface radiation change is effectively transferred. Further, the low temperature of the environment amplifies the effect of the energy balance variation on the surface temperature, as a result of the functional shape of Stefan–Boltzmann law. These processes altogether contribute to enhancing temperature variability at high altitudes. The altitude plays an important role in determining the temperature variability, besides other important factors such as topography, surface characteristics, cryosphere/temperature feedback and the frequency and intensity of an inversion. These processes have a profound effect not only on the ecosystem but also on glaciers and permafrost. Keywords: Citedy By: 42 Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia Author: B Mannig, M Müller, E Starke, C Merkenschlager Journal: Global and Planetary Change ,Vol.110 (1), 2013--Pages Abstract: The high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) REMO has been implemented over the region of Central Asia, including western China. A model run forced by reanalysis data (1/2° resolution), and two runs forced by a GCM (one run with 1/2° and one run with 1/6° resolution) have been realized. The model has been evaluated regarding its ability to simulate the mean climate of the period 1971–2000. It has been found that the spatial pattern of mean temperature and precipitation is simulated well by REMO. The REMO simulations are often closer to observational data than reanalysis data are, and show considerably higher spatial detail. The GCM-forced simulations extend to the year 2100 under the A1B scenario. The climate change signal of temperature is largest in winter in the northern part of the study area and over mountainous terrain. A warming up to 7 °C is projected until the end of the 21st century. In summer, warming is strongest over the southern part of Central Asia. Changes in precipitation are spatially more heterogeneous. Keywords: climate change regional climate modeling Central Asia Citedy By: 42 Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development Author: B Smit, O Pilifosova Journal: Climatic Change,Vol. (), 2013--Pages Abstract: The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented strong evidence that human-induced climate change is occurring and that all countries of the world will be affected and need to adapt to impacts. The IPCC points out that many developing countries are particularly vulnerable because of their relatively low adaptive capacity. Therefore it is seen as a development priority to help these countries enhance their adaptive capacity to climate change. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Stratus Consulting organized a workshop in the fall of 2001 to develop an agenda for research on how best to enhance the capacity of developing countries to adapt to climate change. This research agenda is relevant for governments and institutions that wish to support developing countries in adapting to climate change. The workshop brought together experts from developing and industrialized countries, non-governmental organizations, and multilateral and bilateral donor organizations to discuss a number of important topics related to adaptation, adaptive capacity and sustainable development. A dozen papers were commissioned to cover these topics, both from a theoretical perspective and in the form of national case studies. The papers form the basis for this important book, which presents the latest interdisciplinary knowledge about the nature and components of adaptive capacity and how it may be strengthened. Sample Chapter(s) Keywords: Citedy By: 384 Equity in climate change : the great divide Author: Benito Müller Journal: Equity in climate change,Vol. (), 2002--Pages Abstract: There is a strongly held view in the policy analysis community and beyond that developing countries will play a significant role in determining the success of the multilateral climate change regime under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). It is equally widely understood that, consequently, success will not be forthcoming unless the key concerns of these countries - particularly those pertaining to inequities - are sufficiently taken into account in the future development of the regime. In ‘Diagnosing the Divide,’ this study detects a clear North-South Divide in the views on the nature of the paramount climate change equity problem. In the Northern hemisphere, where the relevant discussion is spearheaded by non-government stakeholders (academic, EGO), it is regarded to be the issue of allocating emission mitigation targets; in the South, the concern - reflected by many governments - is above all about the discrepancy between the responsibility for, and the sharing of climate impact burdens.Acknowledging the importance for the global climate change regime to continue its efforts in avoiding and limiting future anthropogenic climate-related disasters, the second part of this study (‘Bridging the Divide: Redressing The Balance’) argues that we have passed the point where complete avoidance could have been assured, and that consequently the regime must face up to this inevitability and begin to prepare appropriate impact/disaster response measures. Given the existing threat, particular urgency is attached to a proposal for reform of the relevant disaster relief funding mechanism by creating an FCCC Climate Impact Relief (CIR) Fund to achieve an international relief system adequate to the challenge. Because this is to involve merely a more efficient funding mode, such a reform could be carried out with little or no additional costs (no ‘new money’), yet with significant benefits to the international community. Keywords: Citedy By: 123 Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16°S Author: Bernard Francou, Mathias Vuille, Patrick Wagnon, Javier Mendoza, Jean-Emmanuel Sicart Journal: Journal of Geological Research,Vol.108 (D5), 2003--Pages Abstract: The reasons for the accelerated glacier retreat observed since the early 1980s in the tropical Andes are analyzed based on the well-documented Chacaltaya glacier (Bolivia). Monthly mass balance measurements available over the entire 1991–2001 decade are interpreted in the light of a recent energy balance study performed on nearby Zongo glacier and further put into a larger-scale context by analyzing the relationship with ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific-South American domain. The strong interannual variability observed in the mass balance is mainly dependent on variations in ablation rates during the austral summer months, in particular during DJF. Since high humidity levels during the summer allow melting to be distinctly predominant over sublimation, net all-wave radiation, via albedo and incoming long-wave radiation, is the main factor that governs ablation. Albedo depends on snowfall and a deficit during the transition period and in the core of the wet season (DJF) maintains low albedo surfaces of bare ice, which in turn leads to enhanced absorption of solar radiation and thus to increased melt rates. On a larger spatial scale, interannual glacier evolution is predominantly controlled by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 1+2 region). The glacier mass balance is influenced by tropical Pacific SSTA primarily through changes in precipitation, which is significantly reduced during El Niño events. The more frequent occurrence of El Niño events and changes in the characteristics of its evolution, combined with an increase of near-surface temperature in the Andes, are identified as the main factors responsible for the accelerated retreat of Chacaltaya glacier. Keywords: Citedy By: 249 Future of wetlands in tropical and subtropical Asia, especially in the face of climate change Author: Brij Gopal Journal: Aquatic Sciences,Vol.75 (1), 2013--Pages Abstract: Tropical and subtropical Asia differs from other tropical regions in its monsoonal climate and the dominant influence of the Hindukush and Himalayan mountain ranges which result in extremes of spatial and temporal variability in precipitation. However, several major rivers and their tributaries arise in the Himalayan ranges and are fed by thousands of glaciers. Huge sediment loads carried by these rivers result in important deltas at their mouths. The climatic and physiographic diversity have endowed the region with many kinds of wetlands. Of these, the peatswamps of southeast Asia constitute about 56% of the world’s tropical peatlands, and more than 42% of the world’s mangroves occur in South and southeast Asia. Among other wetlands, riverine swamps are rather restricted whereas the seasonal marshes are a dominant feature. Another characteristic feature of tropical Asia are the innumerable human-made and intensively managed wetlands of which the paddy fields and aquaculture ponds are the most extensive. Throughout tropical Asia, wetlands have been a part of the socio-cultural ethos of the people and many communities have lived in wetlands. However, the pressures of high population and the economic development have extensively impacted upon wetlands which have been transformed for paddy cultivation and aquaculture, drained and converted to other land uses for economic gains (e.g., conversion to oil palm), and degraded by discharge of domestic and industrial wastes. Invasive plant and animal species have also played a significant role. The climate change is already being felt in the rapid retreat of Himalayan glaciers, increased temperature and variability in precipitation as well as the frequency of extreme events. Sea level rise is seen as a major threat to the coastal wetlands, particularly the mangroves. Increasing droughts have caused frequent fires in Indonesian peat swamps that have further feedback impacts on regional climate. However, the actual threat to wetlands in this region arises from the extensive hydrological alterations being caused by storage, abstraction and diversion of river flows for agriculture, industry and hydropower. Currently, the state of our understanding wetlands in general, and the efforts and infrastructure for research and training in wetlands are very poor. Although a few wetlands have been designated as Ramsar sites, the policies aimed at wetland conservation are either non-existent or very weak. Human responses to greater uncertainty and variability in the available water resources in different parts of Asia will be crucial to the conservation of wetlands in the future. Keywords: Wetlands, Mangroves, Water resources, Glacier retreat, Sea level rise, Peat swamps ,Fire Wetl, policy Ramsar sites Citedy By: 40 Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower Author: Byman Hamududu and Aanund Killingtveit Journal: Energies, 2012,Vol.5 (2), 2012--Pages Abstract: Currently, hydropower accounts for close to 16% of the world’s total power supply and is the world’s most dominant (86%) source of renewable electrical energy. The key resource for hydropower generation is runoff, which is dependent on precipitation. The future global climate is uncertain and thus poses some risk for the hydropower generation sector. The crucial question and challenge then is what will be the impact of climate change on global hydropower generation and what are the resulting regional variations in hydropower generation potential? This paper is a study that aims to evaluate the changes in global hydropower generation resulting from predicted changes in climate. The study uses an ensemble of simulations of regional patterns of changes in runoff, computed from global circulation models (GCM) simulations with 12 different models. Based on these runoff changes, hydropower generation is estimated by relating the runoff changes to hydropower generation potential through geographical information system (GIS), based on 2005 hydropower generation. Hydropower data obtained from EIA (energy generation), national sites, FAO (water resources) and UNEP were used in the analysis. The countries/states were used as computational units to reduce the complexities of the analysis. The results indicate that there are large variations of changes (increases/decreases) in hydropower generation across regions and even within regions. Globally, hydropower generation is predicted to change very little by the year 2050 for the hydropower system in operation today. This change amounts to an increase of less than 1% of the current (2005) generation level although it is necessary to carry out basin level detailed assessment for local impacts which may differ from the country based values. There are many regions where runoff and hydropower generation will increase due to increasing precipitation, but also many regions where there will be a decrease. Based on this evaluation, it has been concluded that even if individual countries and regions may experience significant impacts, climate change will not lead to significant changes in the global hydropower generation, at least for the existing hydropower system. Keywords: climate change; global; water resources; hydropower generation Citedy By: 74 Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility Author: C Tacoli Journal: Environment and urbanization,Vol.21 (2), 2009--Pages Abstract: The impacts of climate change are likely to affect population distribution and mobility. While alarmist predictions of massive flows of refugees are not supported by past experiences of responses to droughts and extreme weather events, predictions for future migration flows are tentative at best. What we do know is that mobility and migration are key responses to environmental and non-environmental transformations and pressures. They should therefore be a central element of strategies of adaptation to climate change. This requires a radical change in policy makers’ perceptions of migration as a problem and a better understanding of the role of local and national institutions in supporting and accommodating mobility. Keywords: Citedy By: 365 Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles Author: C. T. Graham,C. Harrod, Journal: Journal of Fish Biology,Vol.74 (6), 2009--Pages Abstract: Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g.salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly Keywords: Citedy By: 190 The use of crop models for international climate change impact assessment Author: C. Rosenzweig,A. Iglesias, Journal: Understanding options for agricultural Production,Vol.7 (), 1998--Pages Abstract: The methodology for an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on world crop production, including quantitative estimates of yield and water-use changes for major crops, is described. Agricultural scientists in 18 countries estimated potential changes in crop growth and water use using compatible crop models and consistent climate change scenarios. The crops modeled were wheat, rice, maize and soybean. Site-specific estimates of yield changes for the major crops modeled were aggregated to national levels for use in a world food trade model, the Basic Linked System. The study assessed the implications of climate change for world crop yields for arbitrary and GCM equilibrium and transient climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were tested with and without the direct physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and water use, as reported in experimental literature. Climate change impacts on crop yields incorporating farm-level adaptation were also simulated, based on different assumptions about shifts in crop planting dates, changes in crop variety, and level of irrigation. Keywords: Key words climate change world food supply crop model adaptation Citedy By: 97 Coming Clean: The Impact of Environmental Performance and Visibility on Corporate Climate Change Disclosure Author: Cedric Dawkins,John W. Fraas, Journal: Journal of Business Ethics,Vol.100 (2), 2011--Pages Abstract: Previous research provides mixed results on the relationship between corporate environmental performance and the level of voluntary environmental disclosure. We revisit this relation by testing competing predictions from defensive and accommodative approaches to voluntary disclosure with regard to climate change. In particular, we add to the prior literature by determining the extent to which environmental performance and company media visibility interact to prompt voluntary climate change disclosure. Using ordinal regression and Ceres, KLD, and Trucost ratings of S&P 500 companies, we find a positive relationship between environmental performance and voluntary climate change disclosure. We extend the literature on environmental strategies and disclosure by establishing that company visibility and issue (climate change) visibility interact with environmental perfor- mance to influence the level of voluntary climate change disclosure. Keywords: voluntary environmental disclosure transparency in organizations environmental sustainability environmental strategy social responsibility of business media coverage of business Citedy By: 108 Businesses, Green Groups and The Media: The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations in the Climate Change Debate Author: Chad Carpenter Journal: International Affairs,Vol.77 (2), 2001--Pages Abstract: The lion's share of media and governmental commentary on the recent Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP-6) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has focused on rifts between the EU and the ‘Umbrella Group’ of countries, including the United States, Canada and Japan, and has led many observers to speculate that intergovernmental negotiations on climate change may have irretrievably broken down. Limiting the focus solely to political difficulties with specific issues, however, emphasizes only part of the story and takes no account of the complex context in which the international negotiations are embedded. This approach does not give sufficient credit to the growing momentum gathering outside the negotiating halls. This article examines recent and rapid changes in attitude and awareness among non-governmental groups-including business and industry, environmental groups and the media-on the issue of global climate change, and the impact these changes have had on the negotiating process and the overall climate change debate. Together these groups provide encouraging signs of a shift in public opinion and ample proof that the failure of the talks in The Hague does not signal the end of the road. Keywords: Citedy By: 129 Roles of European blocking and tropical-extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding Author: Chi-Cherng Hong,Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Nai-Hsin Lin,Hsun Chiu, Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.38 (13), 2011--Pages Abstract: [1] A sequence of monsoon surges struck Pakistan and Northwestern India during late July-early August 2010. The unusually heavy monsoon rainfall resulted in record-breaking floods, which affected 20 million people with a death toll of near 3000. Simultaneously, a long-lived blocking high appeared over Europe and Russia in middle June and persisted for nearly two months. Extreme flooding occurred when the southward penetration of extratropical potential vorticity in the deep trough east of the European blocking and the tropical monsoon surges arrived concurrently in Pakistan. This study demonstrates that the interaction between the tropical monsoon surges and the extratropical disturbances downstream of the European blocking was the key factor leading to the severe flooding in Pakistan. The 2010 La Niña condition contributed indirectly to the flooding by inducing a low-level easterly anomaly in South and Southeast Asia, which weakened eastward moisture transport and helped enhance moisture transport (convergence) to (in) the Northern Arabian Sea and Pakistan. Keywords: Citedy By: 82 Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications Author: Chi-Chung Chen, Bruce McCarl, Ching-Cheng Chang, Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.110 (3-4), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change will influence yields while sea level rise can inundate producing lands. The research reported investigates the individual and simultaneous effects of these factors on production, trade and consumption of rice the world’s number one food crop. A global rice trade model is utilized to do this. The results indicate that the combination of yield and sea level effects causes a significant reduction in production and an increase in rice prices which may have important policy implications for food security. Global rice production is reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% while global rice price increases by 7.14% to 12.77%. Sea level rise is particularly a risk factor in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the face of such developments, adaptation may well be desirable and thus an investigation is done over adaptation options of increased technical progress or trade liberalization with the results showing that both can mitigate such damages. Keywords: Citedy By: 29 Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Responsibility Author: Chris J. Cuomo, Journal: Hypatia,,Vol.26 (4), 2011--Pages Abstract: In this essay I present an overview of the problem of climate change, with attention to issues of interest to feminists, such as the differential responsibilities of nations and the disproportionate “vulnerabilities” of females, people of color, and the economically disadvantaged in relation to climate change. I agree with others that justice requires governments, corporations, and individuals to take full responsibility for histories of pollution, and for present and future greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless I worry that an overemphasis on household and personal-sphere fossil fuel emissions distracts from attention to higher-level corporate and governmental responsibilities for addressing the problem of climate change. I argue that more attention should be placed on the higher-level responsibilities of corporations and governments, and I discuss how individuals might more effectively take responsibility for addressing global climate change, especially when corporations and governments refuse to do so. Keywords: Citedy By: 64 Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial Author: Clive Gamble, William Davies, Paul Pettitt, Martin Richards Journal: Royal Society ,Vol.359 (1442), 2004--Pages Abstract: A link between climate change and human evolution during the Pleistocene has often been assumed but rarely tested. At the macro–evolutionary level Foley showed for hominids that extinction, rather than speciation, correlates with environmental change as recorded in the deep sea record. Our aim is to examine this finding at a smaller scale and with high–resolution environmental and archaeological archives. Our interest is in changing patterns of human dispersal under shifting Pleistocene climates during the last glacial period in Europe. Selecting this time frame and region allows us to observe how two hominid taxa, Neanderthals and Crô–Magnons, adapted to climatic conditions during oxygen isotope stage 3. These taxa are representative of two hominid adaptive radiations, termed terrestrial and aquatic, which exhibited different habitat preferences but similar tolerances to climatic factors. Their response to changing ecological conditions was predicated upon their ability to extend their societies in space and time. We examine this difference further using a database of all available radiocarbon determinations from western Europe in the late glacial. These data act as proxies for population history, and in particular the expansion and contraction of regional populations as climate changed rapidly. Independent assessment of these processes is obtained from the genetic history of Europeans. The results indicate that climate affects population contraction rather than expansion. We discuss the consequences for genetic and cultural diversity which led to the legacy of the Ice Age: a single hominid species, globally distributed. Keywords: Citedy By: 223 Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security Author: D Shindell, JCI Kuylenstierna, E Vignati Journal: Science.science mag,Vol.335 (6065), 2012--Pages Abstract: opospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at$700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than$250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.
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Citedy By: 614
Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?
Author: D Shindell, JCI Kuylenstierna, E Vignati
Journal: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,Vol.26 (1-2), 2008--Pages
Abstract: Climate change could strongly affect the wheat crop that accounts for 21% of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. This article reviews some of the approaches for addressing the expected effects that climate change may likely inflict on wheat in some of the most important wheat growing areas, namely germplasm adaptation, system management, and mitigation. Future climate scenarios suggest that global warming may be beneficial for the wheat crop in some regions, but could reduce productivity in zones where optimal temperatures already exist. For example, by 2050, as a result of possible climate shifts in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) – currently part of the favorable, high potential, irrigated, low rainfall mega-environment, which accounts for 15% of global wheat production – as much as 51% of its area might be reclassified as a heat-stressed, irrigated, short-season production mega-environment. This shift would also represent a significant reduction in wheat yields, unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered to and adopted by South Asian farmers. Under the same climate scenarios, the area covered by the cool, temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65°N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor, germplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm, as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Encouraging results include identifying sources of alleles for heat tolerance and their introgression into breeding populations through conventional methods and biotechnology. Likewise, agronomists and extension agents are aiming to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues. Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification. Through the existing global and regional research-for-development networks featuring wheat, technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with climate change.
Keywords: Triticum aestivum Climate change Conservation agriculture Genetic enhancement Mega-environment Wheat
Citedy By: 430
Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia
Author: D. J. Kriticos, R. W. Sutherst, J. R. Brown,S. W. Adkins,G. F. Maywald
Journal: Journal of Applied Ecology,Vol.40 (1), 2003--Pages
Abstract: Acacia nilotica is a spinescent woody legume that has become highly invasive in several parts of the world, including Australia where it has been declared a weed of national significance. Understanding the likely potential distribution of this notorious plant under current and future climate scenarios will enable policy makers and land managers to prepare appropriate strategies to manage the invasion. CLIMEX was used to synthesize available information from diverse sources to model the invasion potential of A. nilotica and gain insights into the climatic factors limiting its range expansion. The model identified areas at risk of further invasion so that early preventative or ameliorative measures could be undertaken in a timely manner.The potential distribution of A. nilotica in Australia under current climatic conditions is vast, and far greater than the current distribution.Global climate change is likely to increase markedly the potential distribution of A. niloticain Australia, significantly increasing the area at risk of invasion. The factors of most importance are the expected increases in water-use efficiency of A. nilotica due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, allowing it to invade more xeric sites further inland, and increased temperatures, allowing it to complete its reproductive life cycle further southward (poleward).Synthesis and applications. Simple paddock quarantine procedures may provide a means of limiting the range of A. nilotica within its potential distribution under current, as well as future, climate scenarios. The projected increased growth potential of A. niloticathroughout its current range suggests that if future management patterns result in seed pods lying unconsumed on the ground, heightened vigilance may be required to identify and eradicate new invasion foci arising from flood dispersal. The increased growth potential may also result in an alteration of the economic balance, in favour of harvesting A. nilotica for agroforestry or local bioenergy projects. A crucial component in containing this invasion will be raising public awareness of the invasion threat posed by A. nilotica, its identification and suitable control techniques.
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Citedy By: 282
Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND
Author: Daiju Narita, Richard S. J. Tol and David Anthoff
Journal: Climate Research,Vol.39 (2), 2009--Pages
Abstract: Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), Version 3.4. The results show that in the basic case (parameter levels based on intermediate estimates), the direct economic damage caused by tropical cyclones ascribed to the effect of climate change would amount to US19 billion globally in the year 2100 (almost the same level as the baseline, i.e. current global damage of tropical cyclones), while the ratio to world gross domestic product (GDP) would be 0.006%. The USA and China account for much of the absolute damage, whereas Small Island States incur the largest damage if evaluated as the proportion of GDP. Model results were sensitive to the choice of baseline and of the wind-speed elasticity of storm damage. Keywords: Citedy By: 49 Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation Assistance Author: David Wheeler, Journal: Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation Assistance ,Vol. (), 2011--Pages Abstract: This paper attempts a comprehensive accounting of climate change vulnerability for 233 states, ranging in size from China to Tokelau. Using the most recent evidence, it develops risk indicators for three critical problems: increasing weather-related disasters, sea-level rise, and loss of agricultural productivity. The paper embeds these indicators in a methodology for cost-effective allocation of adaptation assistance. The methodology can be applied easily and consistently to all 233 states and all three problems, or to any subset that may be of interest to particular donors. Institutional perspectives and priorities differ; the paper develops resource allocation formulas for three cases: (1) potential climate impacts alone, as measured by the three indicators; (2) case 1 adjusted for differential country vulnerability, which is affected by economic development and governance; and (3) case 2 adjusted for donor concerns related to project economics: intercountry differences in project unit costs and probabilities of project success. The paper is accompanied by an Excel database with complete data for all 233 countries. It provides two illustrative applications of the database and methodology: assistance for adaptation to sea level rise by the 20 island states that are both small and poor and general assistance to all low-income countries for adaptation to extreme weather changes, sea-level rise, and agricultural productivity loss. Keywords: Climate change, vulnerability, risk indicators, weather-related disasters, sea-level rise, loss of agricultural productivity Citedy By: 129 Mapping the Resilience of International River Basins to Future Climate Change-Induced Water Variability, Volume 1. Main Report Author: De Stefano, Lucia, Duncan, James, Dinar, Shlomi, Stahl, Kerstin, Strzepek, Kenneth, Wolf, Aaron T Journal: Mapping the Resilience of International River Basins to Future Climate Change-Induced Water Variability, Volume 1. Main Repo,Vol.1 (), 2010--Pages Abstract: The study presented in this report aims to increase our understanding of the global distribution of treaty and River Basin Organization (RBO) mechanisms that may confer resilience to variability in the hydrological regime and how that distribution aligns with current and anticipated regimes. Some basins will experience greater changes in hydrologic variability regimes than others, and we specifically seek to identify country-basin combinations with greater exposure to variability and few or no treaty/RBO provisions to manage the transboundary impacts of that variability. To do this, we assessed all available international water treaties for specific treaty mechanisms, mapped the spatial distribution of these mechanisms and RBOs, and compared it to both the current variability regime and projections of future variability regimes driven by climate change. We then identified specific basins that may merit further study in light of their potential risk of future hydropolitical stress. By identifying these areas at the global scale, we can contribute to efforts aimed at anticipating future challenges in transboundary water management and suggesting specific measures to adapt existing or new water agreements to the effects of climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 40 Uplift-driven climate change at 12 Ma: a long d18O record from the NE margin of the Tibetan plateau Author: DL Dettman, X Fang, CN Garzione, J Li Journal: Earth and Planetary Science Letters,Vol.214 (1-2), 2003--Pages Abstract: Carbonates from fluvial and lacustrine sediments were sampled from multiple measured sections in the Linxia basin of western China. Based on textural and mineralogical evidence, lacustrine carbonates are primary precipitates from lake water. A 29 million year record of the oxygen isotope composition of meteoric water is inferred from the d18O values of these carbonates. This inference is based on the most negative d18O values in the lake carbonates, which represent lake waters that have experienced the least evaporative enrichment. Carbonate d18O values, a proxy for rainfall d18O, are ~-10.5‰ throughout the interval of 29–12 Ma. At 12 Ma there is a shift to -9‰, a value that remains into the Pliocene. This implies a major reorganization of atmospheric circulation patterns and a shift to more arid conditions at the NE margin of the Tibetan plateau with the post-12 Ma system similar to that of today. The 12 Ma event may represent the time at which the Tibetan plateau achieves sufficient elevation to block the penetration of moisture from the Indian Ocean or south Pacific into western China. The period of greatest aridity is from 9.6 to 8.2 Ma, a time interval which agrees well with other climate records. Keywords: Tibetan plateau uplift oxygen isotopes lacustrine Miocene Citedy By: 188 Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making Author: Douglas K. Bardsley, Graeme J. Hugo, Journal: Population and Environment,Vol.32 (2-3), 2010--Pages Abstract: The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised. Keywords: Migration Climate change Adaptation Thresholds Environmental risk Nepal Thailand Citedy By: 138 Phenologically-Tuned MODIS NDVI-Based Time Series (2000-2012) For Monitoring Of Vegetation and Climate Change in North-Eastern Punjab, Pakistan Author: Dr. Farooq Ahmad, Journal: Global Journal of Human-Social Science,Vol.17 (), 2001--Pages Abstract: One of the main factors determining the daily variation of the active surface temperature is the state of the vegetation cover. It can well be characterized by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The NDVI has the potential ability to signal the vegetation features of different eco-regions and provides valuable information as a remote sensing tool in studying vegetation phenology cycles. The vegetation phenology is the expression of the seasonal cycles of plant processes and contributes vital current information on vegetation conditions and their connections to climate change. The NDVI is computed using near-infrared and red reflectances, and thus has both an accuracy and precision. A gapless time series of MODIS NDVI (MOD13A1) composite raster data from 18th February, 2000 to 16th November, 2012 with a spatial resolution of 500 m was utilized. Time-series terrestrial parameters derived from NDVI have been extensively applied to global climate change, since it analyzes each pixel individually without the setting of thresholds to detect change within a time series Keywords: Citedy By: 14 Climate Change and Rising Heat: Population Health Implications for Working People in Australia Author: EG Hanna, T Kjellstrom, C Bennett… - Journal: Asia Pacific Journal of public Health,Vol.23 (2), 2011--Pages Abstract: The rapid rise in extreme heat events in Australia recently is already taking a health toll. Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in the future, and population health may be significantly compromised for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure. Exposure to extreme heat presents a health hazard to all who are physically active, particularly outdoor workers and indoor workers with minimal access to cooling systems while working. At air temperatures close to (or beyond) the core body temperature of 37°C, body cooling via sweating is essential, and this mechanism is hampered by high air humidity. Heat exposure among elite athletes and the military has been investigated, whereas the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored, particularly in relation to future climate change. Workers span all age groups and diverse levels of fitness and health status, including people with higher than “normal” sensitivity to heat. In a hotter world, workers are likely to experience more heat stress and find it increasingly difficult to maintain productivity. Modeling of future climate change in Australia shows a substantial increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C) across the country. In this article, the authors characterize the health risks associated with heat exposure on working people and discuss future exposure risks as temperatures rise. Progress toward developing occupational health and safety guidelines for heat in Australia are summarized. Keywords: Citedy By: 79 Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries Author: EH Allison, AL Perry, MC Badjeck Journal: Fish and Fisheries ,Vol.10 (2), 2009--Pages Abstract: Anthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world’s least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world’s poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world’s fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt. Keywords: Citedy By: 641 Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements Author: Erik Ansink,Arjan Ruijs, Journal: Environmental and Resource Economics,Vol.41 (2), 2008--Pages Abstract: We analyse agreements on river water allocation between riparian countries. Besides being efficient, water allocation agreements need to be stable in order to be effective in increasing the efficiency of water use. In this paper we assess the stability of water allocation agreements using a game theoretic model. We consider the effects of climate change and the choice of a sharing rule on stability. Our results show that a decrease in mean river flow decreases the stability of an agreement, while an increased variance can have a positive or a negative effect on stability. An agreement where the downstream country is allocated a fixed amount of water has the lowest stability compared to other sharing rules. These results hold for both constant and flexible non-water transfers. Keywords: Climate change Game theory Stability Water allocation Citedy By: 61 The geographic distribution of dengue fever and the potential influence of global climate change Author: Esther Van Kleef I, Hilary Bambrick II, Simon Hales III Journal: TropIKA.net, 2010,Vol. (), 2010--Pages Abstract: BACKGROUND Approximately 2.5 billion people are at risk from dengue infection. Dengue is endemic to urban populations in tropical areas; large epidemics have occurred less frequently in subtropical regions, and rarely in cities in temperate regions. The virus is transmitted by the freshwater mosquito, Aedes aegypti. During the past century, surface temperatures have increased by a global average of 0.75°C. Temperature increases of this magnitude may be associated with substantial increases in dengue epidemic potential. OBJECTIVE We aimed to describe the geographic distribution of dengue transmission (current and historical) and to estimate possible impacts on transmission from climate change. METHODS We conducted two systematic reviews. We searched PubMed, digital books and archives for literature describing geographically defined outbreaks of dengue. We also searched PubMed and Scopus for studies modelling the potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission. Data from studies meeting the inclusion criteria were considered by all of our team and we collaborated to draw our conclusions. No meta-analysis was attempted. RESULTS One hundred and one articles met the eligibility criteria for the first review; there were some contradictions and ambiguities in the data. Current global distribution of dengue is generally less extensive than historical limits of dengue-like illness. In recent years, several countries have reported local transmission of dengue for the first time, but it is unclear whether this represents true geographic spread, rather than increased awareness and reporting. Areas of geographic contraction of dengue include the southern states of North America, much of Australia, parts of southern Europe, Japan, China and South Africa. Piped water supplies, removal of water storage tanks, changes in housing conditions and vector control measures have plausibly contributed to this contraction. Six papers met the inclusion criteria for the second review. The findings of theoretical and statistical models of dengue and climate are broadly consistent: the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climate. Relatively small increases in temperature (around 1°C) can lead to substantial increases in transmission potential. Studies modelling the potential effects of climate change on dengue project that there will be increases in climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk of dengue during this century. CONCLUSIONS Geographic distribution of dengue has generally contracted, despite increases in global average temperature in the past century. Theoretically, however, temperature trends have increased the risk of dengue in some areas. The independent effect of climate change on historical patterns of dengue transmission cannot be quantified based on current evidence, as existing models of disease transmission provide limited, incomplete, projections of disease risk. The geographic limits of dengue result from a complex interaction between physical, ecological and social factors which have not been included in current climate change models. Keeping this limitation in mind, models estimating changes to geographic boundaries of transmission suggest an increase in the future population at risk of dengue. Factors associated with urban poverty and minimal capacities for surveillance and control measures remain important promoters of dengue transmission in regions with favourable climate. Keywords: Citedy By: 34 Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty† Author: Eugene Z. Stakhiv, Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources,Vol.47 (6), 2011--Pages Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure. Keywords: Citedy By: 64 Sources of uncertainty in modeling the glaciohydrological response of a Karakoram watershed to climate change Author: F. Pellicciotti,R. Bordoy,W. W. Immerzeel,S. Ragettli, Journal: Water Resources Research ,Vol.49 (9), 2013--Pages Abstract: In the headwater catchments of the main Asian rivers, glaciohydrological models are a useful tool to anticipate impacts of climatic changes. However, the reliability of their projections strongly depends on the quality and quantity of data that are available for parameter estimation, model calibration and validation, as well as on the accuracy of climate change projections. In this study the physically oriented, glaciohydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH is used to simulate future changes in snow, glacier, and runoff from the Hunza River Basin in northern Pakistan. Three key sources of model uncertainty in future runoff projections are compared: model parameters, climate projections, and natural climate variability. A novel approach, applicable also to ungauged catchments, is used to determine which model parameters and model components significantly affect the overall model uncertainty. We show that the model is capable of reproducing streamflow and glacier mass balances, but that all analyzed sources of uncertainty significantly affect the reliability of future projections, and that their effect is variable in time and in space. The effect of parametric uncertainty often exceeds the impact of climate uncertainty and natural climate variability, especially in heavily glacierized subcatchments. The results of the uncertainty analysis allow detailed recommendations on network design and the timing and location of field measurements, which could efficiently help to reduce model uncertainty in the future. Keywords: Citedy By: 34 Biofuels, Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Author: Fabien Ferchaud,Benoît Gabrielle,Bruno Mary,Cécile Bessou, Journal: Sustainable Agriculture ,Vol.2 (), 2011--Pages Abstract: Biofuels are fuels produced from biomass, mostly in liquid form, within a time frame sufficiently short to consider that their feedstock (biomass) can be renewed, contrarily to fossil fuels. This paper reviews the current and future biofuel technologies, and their development impacts (including on the climate) within given policy and economic frameworks. Current technologies make it possible to provide first generation biodiesel, ethanol or biogas to the transport sector to be blended with fossil fuels. Still under-development 2nd generation biofuels from lignocellulose should be available on the market by 2020. Research is active on the improvement of their conversion efficiency. A ten-fold increase compared with current cost-effective capacities would make them highly competitive. Within bioenergy policies, emphasis has been put on biofuels for transportation as this sector is fast-growing and represents a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Compared with fossil fuels, biofuel combustion can emit less greenhouse gases throughout their life cycle, considering that part of the emitted CO2 returns to the atmosphere where it was fixed from by photosynthesis in the first place. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is commonly used to assess the potential environmental impacts of biofuel chains, notably the impact on global warming. This tool, whose holistic nature is fundamental to avoid pollution trade-offs, is a standardised methodology that should make comparisons between biofuel and fossil fuel chains objective and thorough. However, it is a complex and time-consuming process, which requires lots of data, and whose methodology is still lacking harmonisation. Hence the life-cycle performances of biofuel chains vary widely in the** literature. Furthermore, LCA is a site- and time-independent tool that cannot take into account the spatial and temporal dimensions of emissions, and can hardly serve as a decision-making tool either at local or regional levels. Focusing on greenhouse gases, emission factors used in LCAs give a rough estimate of the potential average emissions on a national level. However, they do not take into account the types of crop, soil or management practices, for instance. Modelling the impact of local factors on the determinism of greenhouse gas emissions can provide better estimates for LCA on the local level, which would be the relevant scale and degree of reliability for decision-making purposes. Nevertheless, a deeper understanding of the processes involved, most notably N2O emissions, is still needed to definitely improve the accuracy of LCA. Perennial crops are a promising option for biofuels, due to their rapid and efficient use of nitrogen, and their limited farming operations. However, the main overall limiting factor to biofuel development will ultimately be land availability. Given the available land areas, population growth rate and consumption behaviours, it would be possible to reach by 2030 a global 10% biofuel share in the transport sector, contributing to lower global greenhouse gas emissions by up to 1 GtCO2?eq per year (IEA, 2006), provided that harmonised policies ensure that sustainability criteria for the production systems are respected worldwide. Furthermore, policies should also be more integrative across sectors, so that changes in energy efficiency, the automotive sector and global consumption patterns converge towards drastic reduction of the pressure on resources. Indeed, neither biofuels nor other energy source or carriers are likely to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic pressure on resources in a range that would compensate for this pressure growth. Hence, the first step is to reduce this pressure by starting from the variable that drives it up, i.e. anthropic consumptions. Keywords: Biofuels, Energy, crops, Perennials, LCA Greenhouse gases, Climate change, Political and economic frameworks, Bioenergy, Land-use , Nitrous oxide, Carbon dioxide, Agricultural practices Citedy By: 162 Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry Author: Faiza Sajjad,Umara Noreen,Khalid Zaman, Journal: Environmental Science and Pollution Research ,Vol.21 (21), 2014--Pages Abstract: The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World’s largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975–2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause–effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World’s region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state. Keywords: Climate change Air pollution Tourism World’s region Citedy By: 26 A simple human vulnerability index to climate change hazards for Pakistan Author: Fazal Ali Khan,Ali Salman, Journal: International Journal of Disaster Risk Science,Vol.3 (3), 2012--Pages Abstract: This article explores the spatial pattern of vulnerability to climate change hazards in Pakistan by developing a Human Vulnerability Index (HVI). For this purpose, we use Population Census 1998 and Agriculture Census 2000 data. The HVI places the 103 districts of Pakistan in rank order and looks at whether there is a correlation between human vulnerability and exposure to disaster of the districts with respect to climate change hazards such as floods. The HVI is further validated using an independent flood recovery data set. The study found that the HVI is a useful tool for identifying vulnerable regions and districts for resource allocation. But the HVI is a poor tool for vulnerability assessment at community and household levels. For this purpose we used logistic regression analysis, which indicates that the adult literacy rate, ownership of livestock, and access to electricity are the three (out of six) key variables that play a critical positive role in recovery after the 2010 floods. The primary data collected from households also reveal that the 2010 Pakistan floods have equally affecte d standing crops, livestock, and house structures. More than two-thirds of sample households had rebuilt their house structures, whereas livestock recovery was negligible since the floods. We also found that the 2010 floods affected some of the poverty regions of the country, but that there is a very weak systematic correlation between human vulnerability and disaster exposure. Keywords: climate change Pakistan index validation flood vulnerability Human Vulnerability Index (HVI) Citedy By: 13 Peak globalization: Climate change, oil depletion and global trade Author: FredCurtis Journal: Ecological Economics ,Vol.69 (2), 2009--Pages Abstract: The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. Keywords: Climate change Peak oil Globalization International trade Supply chains Citedy By: 103 The nexus approach to water–energy–food security: an option for adaptation to climate change Author: G Rasul, B Sharma Journal: Climate Policy, 2016,Vol.16 (6), 2016--Pages Abstract: Developing countries face a difficult challenge in meeting the growing demands for food, water, and energy, which is further compounded by climate change. Effective adaptation to change requires the efficient use of land, water, energy, and other vital resources, and coordinated efforts to minimize trade-offs and maximize synergies. However, as in many developing countries, the policy process in South Asia generally follows a sectoral approach that does not take into account the interconnections and interdependence among the three sectors. Although the concept of a water–energy–food nexus is gaining currency, and adaptation to climate change has become an urgent need, little effort has been made so far to understand the linkages between the nexus perspective and adaptation to climate change. Using the Hindu Kush Himalayan region as an example, this article seeks to increase understanding of the interlinkages in the water, energy, and food nexus, explains why it is important to consider this nexus in the context of adaptation responses, and argues that focusing on trade-offs and synergies using a nexus approach could facilitate greater climate change adaptation and help ensure food, water, and energy security by enhancing resource use efficiency and encouraging greater policy coherence. It concludes that a nexus-based adaption approach – which integrates a nexus perspective into climate change adaptation plans and an adaptation perspective into development plans – is crucial for effective adaptation. The article provides a conceptual framework for considering the nexus approach in relation to climate change adaptation, discusses the potential synergies, trade-offs, and offers a broader framework for making adaptation responses more effective. Keywords: Adaptation to climate change, Hindu Kush Himalayan region, policy coherence, synergies, trade-offs, water–food–energy nexus Citedy By: 40 Mitigating climate change – how do corporate strategies differ? Author: G Weinhofer, VH Hoffm ann - Journal: Business Strategy and the Environment,Vol.19 (2), 2010--Pages Abstract: Many companies are facing increasing pressure by governments, shareholders and other stakeholders to reduce their CO2 emissions in order to mitigate climate change. The importance of managing CO2 emissions and crafting adequate CO2 strategies has increased for those companies affected. We present a framework that conceptualizes a company's CO2 strategy as the focus on one or a combination of several strategic objectives: CO2 compensation, CO2 reduction and carbon independence. In order to investigate the CO2 strategies of a worldwide sample of 91 electricity producers we perform a content analysis of their answers to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). We demonstrate the measures the companies take to manage their emissions, the CO2 strategies they adopt and antecedents that influence these strategies. We find that half of the companies take parallel emission management measures that aim at all three strategic objectives, while the other half pursue selected objectives only. We also find that companies with different CO2 strategies significantly differ in terms of regional affiliation, company size and absolute amount of CO2emissions, while we could not identify a significant difference in relative CO2 emissions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. Keywords: Citedy By: 151 Geochemical record of chemical weathering and monsoon climate change since the early Miocene in the South China Sea Author: Gangjian Wei, Xian-Hua Li,Ying Liu,Lei Shao,Xirong Liang, Journal: Paleoceanography,Vol.21 (4), 2006--Pages Abstract: The chemical index of alteration (CIA) and elemental ratios that are sensitive to chemical weathering, such as Ca/Ti, Na/Ti, Al/Ti, Al/Na, Al/K, and La/Sm, were analyzed for detrital sediments at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1148 from the northern South China Sea to reveal information of chemical weathering in the source regions during the early Miocene. High CIA values of ~80, coupled with high Al/Ti and Al/Na and low Na/Ti and Ca/Ti, are observed for the sediments at ~23 Ma, indicating a high chemical weathering intensity in the north source region, i.e., south China. This was followed by gradual decreases in Al/Ti, Al/Na, La/Sm, and Al/K ratios, as well as the CIA values, and increases in Ca/Ti and Na/Ti ratios. These records together with other paleoclimate proxies, such as black carbon d13C and benthic foraminifer d18O, give reliable information on the climate changes in south China. Our results show that the climate in south China was warm and humid in the early Miocene (~23 Ma) according to the chemical weathering records. The humidity in south China decreased from the early Miocene to Present with several fluctuations centering at approximately 15.7 Ma, 8.4 Ma, and 2.5 Ma, coincident with the global cooling since the middle Miocene. These climate changes implied that the summer east Asian monsoon has dramatically affected south China in the early Miocene, whereas the influence of the summer monsoon on this region has decreased continuously since that time, probably because of the intensification of the winter monsoon. Such an evolution for the east Asian monsoon is different from that for the Indian monsoon. Keywords: Citedy By: 78 Phytolith and Carbon Isotope Evidence for Late Quaternary Vegetation and Climate Change in the Southern Black Hills, South Dakota Author: GG Fredlund, LL Tieszen Journal: Quaternary Research,Vol.47 (2), 1997--Pages Abstract: Analyses of phytoliths and carbon isotopes document change in late Quaternary grasslands in the Red Valley of the southern Black Hills. Late Pleistocene grassland composition was equivalent to the C3grass parklands of modern central Alberta. The rise of mixed grassland occurred rapidly between 11,000 and 9000 yr B.P. Early Holocene mixed grasslands included both short and tall C4grasses. A mid-Holocene erosional unconformity (ca. 8000 to 4500 yr B.P.) precludes phytolith or isotope analysis, but suggests lack of vegetation and landscape denudation caused by a drier climatic. Basin-wide stability and soil development followed the erosional episode (ca. 4500 to 3600 yr B.P.). Mesic-adapted C4panicoid grasses increased during this period of soil development. Low-magnitude fluctuation in the C4-dominated mixed grassland occurred throughout the late Holocene (3600 yr B.P. to present). Rise in d13C values during the last 1000 yr without corresponding change in phytoliths may indicate a decrease in woodlands caused by increased fire frequency. Keywords: Citedy By: 141 The role of seasonality in abrupt climate change Author: GH Denton, RB Alley, GC Comer Journal: Quaternary Science Reviews,Vol.24 (10-11), 2005--Pages Abstract: A case is made that seasonality switches dominated by wintertime were instrumental in abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glaciation and into the Holocene. The primary evidence comes from mismatches between mean annual temperatures from Greenland ice cores in comparison with snowline changes in East Greenland, northern Europe, and North America. The most likely explanation is a shutdown (or reduction in strength) of the conveyor. This allows the spread of winter sea ice across the North Atlantic, thus causing the northern region to experience much colder winters. Because they mimic the Greenland temperature rather than the snowline signal, changes in the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Asian monsoon may also share a winter linkage with Greenland. Thus the paleoclimate record is consistent with the notion that a huge continental sector of the Northern Hemisphere, stretching from Greenland to Asia, was close to an extreme winter threshold during much of the last glaciation. Winter climate crossed this threshold repeatedly, with marked changes in seasonality that may well have amplified and propagated a signal of abrupt change throughout the hemisphere and into the tropics. Keywords: Citedy By: 353 Glaciers and Glacial Lakes under Changing Climate in Pakistan Author: Ghulam Rasul1 , Q. Z. Chaudhry2 , Arif Mahmood2 Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.8 (15), 2011--Pages Abstract: The Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindukush lofty mountain ranges meet each other in Pakistan hosting more than 5000 glaciers in Pakistani geographical limits which feed snow/ice melt water to the Indus River System together with summer monsoon. Due to global warming, frozen water resources have been losing their reserves at an unprecedented rate, not only, reducing the ice mass but increasing the number and extent of glacial lakes. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are the devastating mountain hazards which have started occurring with increased frequency during the recent years. An alarming increasing temperature trend in northern parts of Pakistan during the last decade which surpassed all the past records has enhanced the snow/ice melt rate and given rise to lake formation process some of which are potentially dangerous for outburst. Due to increase in temperature, the snowline has shifted upward causing migration of biodiversity and lower elevation glaciers have started melting faster. Snow used to occur now in late winter and disappears in early summer, hence, reducing the residency period to complete metamorphic processes for conversion into ice. Ponding of melt water underneath and around the terminal moraine need continuous monitoring to understand their supraglacial behavior and to assess the potential danger of outburst on scientific basis for development of an early warning mechanism. An initiative of The Mountain Institute (TMI) in collaboration of ICIMOD toward Global Glacial Lake Partnership is a step forward to manage such lakes to mitigate the potential losses due to their outburst Keywords: Glaciers, Glacial Lakes, Snowline Shift, Passu Lake, Global Glacial Lake Partnership Citedy By: 24 Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia–Pacific region Author: GM Griffiths, LE Chambers, MR Haylock Journal: International Journal Climatology,Vol.25 (10), 2005--Pages Abstract: Trends (1961–2003) in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extremes and variance were found to be spatially coherent across the Asia–Pacific region. The majority of stations exhibited significant trends: increases in mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, decreases in cold nights and cool days, and increases in warm nights. No station showed a significant increase in cold days or cold nights, but a few sites showed significant decreases in hot days and warm nights. Significant decreases were observed in both maximum and minimum temperature standard deviation in China, Korea and some stations in Japan (probably reflecting urbanization effects), but also for some Thailand and coastal Australian sites. The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) region between Fiji and the Solomon Islands showed a significant increase in maximum temperature variability.Correlations between mean temperature and the frequency of extreme temperatures were strongest in the tropical Pacific Ocean from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and southern Japan. Correlations were weaker at continental or higher latitude locations, which may partly reflect urbanization.For non-urban stations, the dominant distribution change for both maximum and minimum temperature involved a change in the mean, impacting on one or both extremes, with no change in standard deviation. This occurred from French Polynesia to Papua New Guinea (except for maximum temperature changes near the SPCZ), in Malaysia, the Philippines, and several outlying Japanese islands. For urbanized stations the dominant change was a change in the mean and variance, impacting on one or both extremes. This result was particularly evident for minimum temperature.The results presented here, for non-urban tropical and maritime locations in the Asia–Pacific region, support the hypothesis that changes in mean temperature may be used to predict changes in extreme temperatures. At urbanized or higher latitude locations, changes in variance should be incorporated. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. Keywords: Citedy By: 191 Asian Aerosols: Current and Year 2030 Distributions and Implications to Human Health and Regional Climate Change Author: GR Carmichael, B Adhikary, S Kulkarni… - … Journal: science& technology, 2009,Vol.43 (15), 2009--Pages Abstract: Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include >80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 µg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask ~45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is ~55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radioactive forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions. Keywords: Citedy By: 81 Recent (1980–2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram, Pakistan Author: Guglielmina Diolaiuti, Daniele Bocchiola Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.113 (4-5), 2003--Pages Abstract: We investigate here recent (1980–2009) climate variability in the upper Karakoram, Northern Pakistan, of particular interest given the peculiar glacier behavior during the last two decades. Differently from other glacierized regions in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, glaciers in the Karakoram display limited ice thinning, and in some cases advancing has been detected. Climate analysis is required to describe recent (i.e., last three decades) variability, to aid highlighting of the factors driving glacier evolution. Starting from monthly data, we analyze seasonal values of total precipitation, number of wet days, maximum (max) and minimum (min) air temperature, max precipitation in 24 h, and cloud cover for 17 weather stations in the upper Karakoram, clustered within three climatic regions as per use of principal components analysis. We detect possible nonstationarity in each of these regions by way of (1) linear regression, (2) moving window average, and (3) Mann–Kendall test, also in progressive form, to detect the onset date of possible trends. We then evaluate linear correlation coefficients between Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and climate variables to assess effectiveness of teleconnections, claimed recently to affect climate in this area. Also, we compare temperature within the investigated zone against global temperature anomalies, to evidence enhanced warming within this area. We found mostly nonsignificant changes of total precipitation, unless for few stations displaying increase in Chitral-Hindu Kush region and Northwest Karakoram, or Gilgit area, and decrease in Western Himalaya, Kotli region. Max precipitation is mostly unchanged, unless for slight increase in Chitral and Gilgit areas, and slight decrease in Kotli region. Number of wet days is mostly increasing in Gilgit area, and decreasing in Chitral area, with no clear signal in Kotli region. Min temperatures increase always but during Summer, when decreasing values are detected, especially for Gilgit and Chitral regions. Max temperatures are found to increase everywhere. Cloud cover is significantly increasing in Gilgit area, but decreasing otherwise, especially in Kotli region. Max temperature regime is significantly positively correlated against global thermal anomaly, while min temperature regime is nonsignificantly negatively correlated. Max and min temperatures seem mostly negatively correlated to NAO. Some dependence of trend intensity for the considered variables against altitude is found, different for each region, suggesting that investigation of weather variables at the highest altitudes is warranted to discriminate further climate variability in the area Keywords: Citedy By: 567 Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios Author: H Sultana, N Ali, MM Iqbal, AM Khan Journal: Climatic Change,,Vol.94 (1-2), 2009--Pages Abstract: Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO2concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO2 level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO2 level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO2 level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers. Keywords: Citedy By: 42 Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics Author: H. P. Das,O. Brunini,M. V. K. Sivakumar, Journal: Climatic Change, 2005,Vol.70 (1-2), 2005--Pages Abstract: The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 ± 0.2 °C in the 2020s, 3.1 ± 0.3 °C in the 2050s, and 4.6 ± 0.4 °C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 °C per decade to more than 0.5 °C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia’s rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, Africa and Latin America was described using suitable examples. It is emphasized that approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static. Keywords: Citedy By: 221 The potential of biomass fuels in the context of global climate change: focus on transportation fuels Author: Haroon S. Kheshgi1, Roger C. Prince1, and Gregg Marland2 Journal: Annual Review of Energy and the Environment nt,Vol.25 (), 2000--Pages Abstract: An ultimate limit on the extent that biomass fuels can be used to displace fossil transportation fuels, and their associated emissions of CO2, will be the land area available to produce the fuels and the efficiencies by which solar radiation can be converted to useable fuels. Currently, the Brazil cane-ethanol system captures 33% of the primary energy content in harvested cane in the form of ethanol. The US corn-ethanol system captures 54% of the primary energy of harvested corn kernels in the form of ethanol. If ethanol is used to substitute for gasoline, avoided fossil fuel CO2 emissions would equal those of the substituted amount minus fossil emissions incurred in producing the cane- or corn-ethanol. In this case, avoided emissions are estimated to be 29% of harvested cane and 14% of harvested corn primary energy. Unless these efficiencies are substantially improved, the displacement of CO2 emissions from transportation fuels in the United States is unlikely to reach 10% using domestic biofuels. Candidate technologies for improving these efficiencies include fermentation of cellulosic biomass and conversion of biomass into electricity, hydrogen, or alcohols for use in electric drive-train vehicles. Keywords: bioenergy; biofuels; ethanol; carbon dioxide. Citedy By: 213 Accounting for Carbon: The Role of Accounting Professional Organisations in Governing Climate Change Author: Heather Lovell,Donald MacKenzie, Journal: Antipode, 2011,Vol.43 (3), 2011--Pages Abstract: Since the turn of the century accounting professional organisations have been involved in a number of debates about climate change, catalysed initially by technical discussions about the treatment of European carbon credits in financial accounts. These bodies are positioning themselves as leading on climate change, for example, through launching professional training courses, funding research, and initiating corporate workshops and seminars. The paper examines the role of the accountancy profession in governing the new carbon economy. We review climate change related activities undertaken by accountancy professional bodies through drawing on primary empirical material, including interviews with accountants, accountancy standard setters and professional bodies. A mix of theories about the role of calculation, measurement and expertise in governance are used to help explain and understand the situation, including ideas about accountancy and society, epistemic communities, and governmentality. Keywords: Citedy By: 96 How warm is the corporate response to climate change? Evidence from Pakistan and the UK Author: HK Jeswani, W Wehrmeyer Journal: Business Strategy and the Environmen,Vol.17 (1), 2008--Pages Abstract: In response to growing consensus among scientists and governments to act fast to avoid dangerous impacts of climate change, many industries have started to prepare for a carbon-constrained world. However, this response is far from being uniform. Often action is predicated on economic, technological, organizational and institutional drivers and barriers, which vary between countries and across industrial sectors. In order to understand the effectiveness of industry response, it is therefore important to analyze corporate response across different sectors in different countries. Focusing on the nine most energy-intensive and greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting industrial sectors, this paper compares corporate responses to climate change in Pakistan and the UK. By analysing the divergence of strategies adopted by industries across different sectors in two countries, the paper examines the key factors influencing corporate adoption and implementation of GHG reduction and energy-efficiency strategies in Pakistan and the UK. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. Keywords: Citedy By: 174 Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change Author: Holly P. Jones, David G. Hole and Erika S. Zavaleta Journal: Nature Climate Change, 2012,Vol. (27), 2012--Pages Abstract: Adapting to climate change is among the biggest challenges humanity faces in the next century. An overwhelming focus of adaptation strategies to reduce climate change-related hazards has been on hard-engineering structures such as sea walls, irrigation infrastructure and dams. Closer attention to a broader spectrum of adaptation options is urgently needed. In particular, ecosystem-based adaptation approaches provide flexible, cost-effective and broadly applicable alternatives for buffering the impacts of climate change, while overcoming many drawbacks of hard infrastructure. As such, they are a critical tool at adaptation planners’ disposal for tackling the threats that climate change poses to peoples’ lives and livelihood Keywords: Citedy By: 165 Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change Author: I Haddeland, J Heinke, H Biemans Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United state of America ,Vol.111 (9), 2014--Pages Abstract: Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. Keywords: Citedy By: 189 Evolution of Miocene fluvial environments, eastern Potwar plateau, northern Pakistan Author: IMRAN A. KHAN,JOHN S. BRIDGE,JOHN KAPPELMAN,REGAN WILSON Journal: Sedimentology, 1997,Vol.44 (2), 1997--Pages Abstract: The Miocene-Pliocene Siwalik Group records changing fluvial environments in the Himalayan foreland basin. The Nagri and Dhok Pathan Formations of this Group in the eastern Potwar Plateau, northern Pakistan, comprise relatively thick (tens of metres) sandstone bodies and mudstones that contain thinner sandstone bodies (metres thick) and palaeosols. Thick sandstone bodies extend for kilometres normal to palaeoflow, and are composed of large-scale stratasets (storeys) stacked laterally and vertically adjacent to each other. Sandstone bodies represent single or superimposed braided-channel belts, and large-scale stratasets represent channel bars and fills. Channel belts had widths of km, bankfull discharges on the order of 103 cumecs and braiding parameter up to about 3. Individual channel segments had bankfull widths, maximum depths, and slopes on the order of 102m, 101 m and 10-4 respectively, and sinuosities around 1-1. These rivers are comparable to many of those flowing over the megafans of the modern Indo-Gangetic basin, and a similar depositional setting is likely. Thin sandstone bodies within mudstone sequences extend laterally for on the order of 102 m and have lobe, wedge, sheet and channel-form geometries: they represent crevasse splays, levees and floodplain channels. Mudstones are relatively bioturbated/disrupted and represent mainly floodbasin and lacustrine deposition. Mudstones and sandstones are extremely disrupted in places, showing evidence of prolonged pedogenesis. These ‘mature’ palaeosols are m thick and extend laterally for km. Lateral and vertical variations in the nature of their horizons apparently depend mainly on deposition rate. The 500 m-thick Nagri Formation has a greater proportion and thicker sandstone bodies than the overlying 700 m-thick Dhok Pathan Formation. The thick sandstone bodies and their large-scale stratasets thicken and coarsen through the Nagri Formation, then thin and fine at the base of the Dhok Pathan Formation. Compacted deposition rates increase with sandstone proportion (0-53 mm/year for Nagri, 0-24 mm/year for Dhok Pathan), and palaeosols are not as well developed where deposition rates are high. Within both formations there are 100 m-scale variations (representing on the order of 105 years) in the proportion and thickness of thick sandstone bodies, and tens-of-m-scale alternations of thick sandstone bodies and mudstone-sandstone strata that represent on the order of 104 years. Formation-scale stratal variations extend across the Potwar Plateau for at least 100 km, although they may be diachronous: however, 100-m and smaller scale variations can only be traced laterally for up to tens of km. Alluvial architecture models indicate that increases in the proportion and thickness of thick sandstone bodies can be explained by increasing channel-belt sizes (mainly), average deposition rate and avulsion frequency on a megafan comparable in size to modern examples. 100-m-scale variations in thick sandstone-body proportion and thickness could result from ‘regional’ shifts in the position of major channels, possibly associated with ‘fan lobes’on a single megafan or with separate megafans. However, such variations could also be related to local changes in subsidence rate or changes in sediment supply to the megafan system. Formation-scale and 100-m-scale stratal variations are probably associated with interelated changes in tectonic uplift, sediment supply and basin subsidence. Increased rates of hinterland uplift, sediment supply and basin subsidence, recorded by the Nagri Formation, may have resulted in diversion of a relatively large river to the area. Alternatively, changing river sizes and sediment supply rates may be related to climate changes affecting the hinterland (possibly linked to tectonic uplift). Climate during deposition of the Siwalik Group was monsoonal. Although the deposits contain no direct evidence for climate change, independent evidence indicates global cooling throughout the Miocene, and the possibility of glacial periods (e.g. around 10-8 Ma, corresponding to base of Nagri Formation). If the higher Himalayas were periodically glaciated, a mechanism would exist for varying sediment supply to megafans on time scales of 104-105 years. Although eustatic sea-level changes are related to global climatic change, they are not directly related to Siwalik stratigraphic changes, because the shoreline was many 100 km away during the Miocene. Keywords: Citedy By: 72 Climate change mitigation in the energy and forestry sectors of developing countries Author: JA Sathaye, NH Ravindranath Journal: Annual Review of Energy and the Environment ,Vol.23 (), 1998--Pages Abstract: The continued accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to severely impact the earth's natural resources and agriculture. Greenhouse gas emissions from the developing world are rising faster than those from other countries, and many studies have noted that it would not be possible to stabilize climate change without reducing the growth of these emissions. Can this be achieved without affecting economic growth and social fabric in these countries? Mitigation studies indicate that if energy efficiency and forestry options are implemented judiciously, emissions can be reduced at a negative cost without affecting economic growth. The studies also suggest that this would increase significantly the worldwide demand for natural gas and renewable technologies. Country studies show that the aggregate mitigation potential in the forestry sector is higher, and the costs per tonne of carbon are lower, than reported earlier by global studies. Barriers to the implementation of energy and forestry options need to be explicitly taken into consideration because these may change the priority of options and the choice of policy measures. Keywords: costs; Kyoto; bottom-up; top-down. Citedy By: 110 Late Miocene environmental change in Nepal and the northern Indian subcontinent: Stable isotopic evidence from paleosols Author: Jay Quade, ,John M.L. Cater, ,Tank P. Ojha, ,Jon Adam, ,T. Mark Harrison, Journal: GSA BULLETIN ,Vol.107 (12), 1995--Pages Abstract: Neogene sediments belonging to the Siwalik Group crop out in the Himalayan foothills along the length of southern Nepal. Carbon and oxygen isotopic analyses of Siwalik paleosols from four long Siwalik sections record major ecological changes over the past ~11 m.y. The carbon isotopic composition of both soil carbonate and organic matter shifts dramatically starting ca. 7.0 Ma, marking the displacement of largely C3 vegetation, probably semi-deciduous forest, by C4 grasslands. By the beginning of the Pliocene, all the flood plains of major rivers in this region were dominated by monsoonal grasslands. The floral shift away from woody plants is also reflected by the decline and final disappearance of fossil leaves and the decrease in coal logs in the latest Miocene. A similar carbon isotopic shift has been documented in the paleosol and fossil tooth record of Pakistan, and in terrigenous organic matter from the Bengal Fan, showing that the floral shift was probably continentwide. The latest Miocene also witnessed an average change of ~4‰ in the oxygen isotopic composition of soil carbonate, as observed previously in Pakistan. The reasons for this are unclear; if not diagenetic, a major environmental change is indicated, perhaps related to that driving the carbon isotopic shift. Recently described pollen and leaf fossils from the Surai Khola section show that evergreen forest was gradually displaced by semi-deciduous and dry deciduous forest between 11 and 6 Ma. The gradual nature of this floral shift, which culminated in the rapid expansion of C4 grasses starting ~7.0 m.y. ago, is difficult to explain by a decrease in atmospheric pCO2 alone (Cerling et al., 1993) but fits well with a gradual onset of monsoonal conditions in the late Miocene in the northern Indian subcontinent. Himalayan uplift, driving both monsoonal intensification and consumption of CO2 through weathering, may be the common cause behind major late Miocene environmental change globally. However, the decline of effective moisture associated with monsoon development has probably slowed, not increased, the rate of consumption of CO2 by chemical weathering of Himalayan sediments Keywords: Citedy By: 279 Climate Change Impacts on Glacier Hydrology and River Discharge in the Hindu Kush–Himalayas Author: JD Miller, WW Immerzeel, G Rees Journal: Mountain Research and Development ,Vol.37 (), 2012--Pages Abstract: Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns across the Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH) region resulting from climate change have an influence on water resource availability and food security for the downstream population. This review seeks to objectively assess the available evidence of the impacts of climate change on glacier hydrology and the wider implications upon water resources within the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins. Glacier meltwater contribution to river flows is scale dependent and varies considerably across the east–west climatic zones of the HKH. For the Ganges and Brahmaputra this contribution is estimated to be significantly less than for the Indus to the west, with summer monsoon rains dominating flows from central and easterly areas, whereas meltwater remains a significant contributor to downstream flow of westerly basins, which receive most precipitation during winter. No corroborated trends exist in observed discharge for any basin, and such analyses are hindered by a lack of good-quality long-term data. Predicted increases in temperature will drive increased shrinkage of glaciers, leading to initial increases in meltwater produced, followed by subsequent declines with reduced glacier mass. The impacts of such changes are predicted to be minimal for the overall discharge of the Ganges and Brahmaputra, where increases in rainfall may in fact lead to increased flows but with greater variability. Within the Indus basin, reduced meltwater will have significant impacts upon available runoff; however, increased uncertainties surrounding precipitation and socioeconomic changes limit any conclusive assessment of how water availability will be affected; moreover, seasonality of runoff may be a more important factor. Scientific challenges and research recommendations are identified for the region. This review proposes the need for the scientific evidence pertaining to the region's glacier systems to be approached objectively in the future, such that a robust assessment of change can be attained. Keywords: Glacier, climate change, hydrology, water, Himalaya Citedy By: 40 Modeling the Impacts of Corporate Commitment on Climate Change Author: Jean-François Henri,David Talbot,Olivier Boiral Journal: Business Strategy and the Environment ,Vol.21 (8), 2012--Pages Abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrative framework for understanding the determinants of business strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the impact of these determinants on performance. The proposed structural equation model is based on a survey of 319 Canadian manufacturing firms. The study calls into question the traditionally positive relationship between a firm's environmental commitment and its economic motivations. However, the results also show a win–win relationship between the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and financial performance. This study contributes to the understanding of the motivations underlying the efforts manufacturers make to tackle climate change and their economic benefits. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. Keywords: Citedy By: 58 Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century Author: Jemma Gornall, Richard Betts, Eleanor Burke, Robin Clark, Joanne Camp, Kate Willett, Andrew Wiltshire Journal: The Royal Society ,Vol.365 (1554), 2010--Pages Abstract: This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. Keywords: Citedy By: 356 To What Extent is Business Responding to Climate Change? Evidence from a Global Wine Producer Author: Jeremy Galbreath, Journal: Journal of Business Ethics,Vol.104 (3), 2011--Pages Abstract: Most studies on climate change response have examined reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yet these studies do not take into account ecosystem services constraints and biophysical disruptions wrought by climate change that may require broader types of response. By studying a firm in the wine industry and using a research approach not constrained by structured methodologies or biased toward GHG emissions, the findings suggest that both “inside out” and “outside in” actions are taken in response to climate change. While attempts are made by the firm to curtail and reverse climate change through management of carbon emissions, evidence suggests a clear pattern of actions designed to adjust to the adverse consequences of climate change as well. The results both confirm and extend previous findings and suggest that the level and breadth of response to climate change is shaped by situated attention, structural controls, and industry type. Keywords: Australia Climate change, Greenhouse gas, emissions, Mitigative Strategy, Sustainability Citedy By: 48 Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia Author: Jerry Knox, Tim Hess, Andre Daccache and Tim Wheeler Journal: Environmental Research Letters,Vol.7 (3), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is - 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of - 17% (wheat), - 5% (maize), - 15% (sorghum) and - 10% (millet) and across South Asia of - 16% (maize) and - 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of > 3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane. Keywords: Citedy By: 189 A Simulation of Biomes on the Tibetan Plateau and Their Responses to Global Climate Change Author: Jian Ni Journal: Mountain Research and Development ,Vol. (), 2000--Pages Abstract: The improved process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model (BIOME3China) was run under the present climate to model the potential biomes on the Tibetan Plateau on a 109 grid. The simulated biome was basically in good agreement with a potential natural vegetation map based on a numerical comparison between two maps using the ?V statistic (?V = 0.38). A coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model including sulfate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario to the end of the next century. The simulated vegetation under changed climate with a CO2concentration of 500 ppmv and a baseline biome map were also compared using the ?V statistic (?V = 0.4). The climate change would cause a large reduction in the temperate desert, alpine steppe, desert, and ice/polar desert, a large increase in the cold-temperate conifer forest, temperate shrubland/meadow, and temperate steppe, and a general northwestward shift of all vegetation zones. In addition to simulation of biome distribution, BIOME3China also predicted net primary production (NPP) of each grid cell. Comparisons between predicted annual NPP and 160 forest NPP measurements show an agreement between them with a linear regression, despite many problems, such as the quality of the field data. The pattern of predicted annual NPP in the scenario with enhanced CO2 concentration was the same as that under the present climate; however, the NPP of each biome would increase significantly. Present permafrost simulated using the air frost index was quite similar to the actual frozen ground distribution on the Tibetan Plateau. After the change in climate, the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost would shift toward the north of the plateau by about 1–2° in latitude. The continuous permafrost would mostly disappear, whereas the no-permafrost area would greatly increase. The movement of permafrost would take place with the shift of vegetation zones to the north. The disappearance of permafrost and the expansion of no-permafrost areas would accelerate the desertification of the Tibetan Plateau. Keywords: Biome simulation, response to global climate change, Tibetan Plateau, terrestrial system modeling Citedy By: 149 Impacts and mitigation of climate change on Chinese cities Author: JiyuanLiu. .XiangzhengDeng Journal: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability ,Vol.3 (3), 2011--Pages Abstract: China is experiencing rapid urbanization. The development of cities may be hampered by reduced access to resources and energy as well as natural disasters caused by climate change. In addition, the emission of greenhouse gases from construction and development may accelerate global climate change. In this review, we examine the effects of climate change and present possible solutions for Chinese cities. We also consider the development of low carbon cities as one option for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. Finally, we discuss several issues related to climate change that merit further consideration Keywords: Citedy By: 38 Conservation and climate change: Assessing the vulnerability of snow leopard habitat to treeline shift in the Himalaya Author: JL Forrest, E Wikramanayake, R Shrestha Journal: Biological Conservation ,Vol.150 (1), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change is likely to affect the persistence of large, space-requiring species through habitat shifts, loss, and fragmentation. Anthropogenic land and resource use changes related to climate change can also impact the survival of wildlife. Thus, climate change has to be integrated into biodiversity conservation plans. We developed a hybrid approach to climate-adaptive conservation landscape planning for snow leopards in the Himalayan Mountains. We first mapped current snow leopard habitat using a mechanistic approach that incorporated field-based data, and then combined it with a climate impact model using a correlative approach. For the latter, we used statistical methods to test hypotheses about climatic drivers of treeline in the Himalaya and its potential response to climate change under three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We then assessed how change in treeline might affect the distribution of snow leopard habitat. Results indicate that about 30% of snow leopard habitat in the Himalaya may be lost due to a shifting treeline and consequent shrinking of the alpine zone, mostly along the southern edge of the range and in river valleys. But, a considerable amount of snow leopard habitat and linkages are likely to remain resilient to climate change, and these should be secured. This is because, as the area of snow leopard habitat fragments and shrinks, threats such as livestock grazing, retaliatory killing, and medicinal plant collection can intensify. We propose this approach for landscape conservation planning for other species with extensive spatial requirements that can also be umbrella species for overall biodiversity. Keywords: Snow leopard Climate adaptation Conservation planning Endangered species Climate change Himalaya Citedy By: 52 Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria Author: JM Hamilton, DJ Maddison, RSJ Tol Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.9 (1), 1999--Pages Abstract: Global estimates of the potential impact of climate change on malaria transmission were calculated based on future climate scenarios produced by the HadCM2 and the more recent HadCM3 global climate models developed by the UK Hadley Centre. This assessment uses an improved version of the MIASMA malaria model, which incorporates knowledge about the current distributions and characteristics of the main mosquito species of malaria.The greatest proportional changes in potential transmission are forecast to occur in temperate zones, in areas where vectors are present but it is currently too cold for transmission. Within the current vector distribution limits, only a limited expansion of areas suitable for malaria transmission is forecast, such areas include: central Asia, North America and northern Europe. On a global level, the numbers of additional people at risk of malaria in 2080 due to climate change is estimated to be 300 and 150 million for P. falciparum and P. vivax types of malaria, respectively, under the HadCM3 climate change scenario. Under the HadCM2 ensemble projections, estimates of additional people at risk in 2080 range from 260 to 320 million for P. falciparum and from 100 to 200 million for P. vivax. Climate change will have an important impact on the length of the transmission season in many areas, and this has implications for the burden of disease. Possible decreases in rainfall indicate some areas that currently experience year-round transmission may experience only seasonal transmission in the future. Estimates of future populations at risk of malaria differ significantly between regions and between climate scenarios. Keywords: Climate change Malaria Modelling Citedy By: 455 The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods Author: J Xu, RE Grumbine, A Shrestha, M Eriksson Journal: Conservation Biology,Vol.23 (3), 2009--Pages Abstract: The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator–prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making. Keywords: Citedy By: 379 Insurance Against Climate Change and Flooding in the Netherlands: Present, Future, and Comparison with Other Countries Author: J. C. J. M. Van Den Bergh W. J. W. Botzen Journal: Risk analysis, 2008,Vol.28 (2), 2008--Pages Abstract: Climate change is projected to cause severe economic losses, which has the potential to affect the insurance sector and public compensation schemes considerably. This article discusses the role insurance can play in adapting to climate change impacts. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, in view of the Netherlands being extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The usefulness of private insurance as an adaptation instrument to increased flood risks is examined, which is currently unavailable in the Netherlands. It is questioned whether the currently dominant role of the Dutch government in providing damage relief is justified from an economic efficiency perspective. Characteristics of flood insurance arrangements in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France are compared in order to identify possible future directions for arrangements in the Netherlands. It is argued that social welfare improves when insurance companies take responsibility for part of the risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 189 Climate change, human security and violent conflict Author: J Barnett, WN Adger Journal: Political geography,Vol.26 (6), 2007--Pages Abstract: Climate change is increasingly been called a ‘security’ problem, and there has been speculation that climate change may increase the risk of violent conflict. This paper integrates three disparate but well-founded bodies of research – on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, on livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking, to offer new insights into the relationships between climate change, human security, and violent conflict. It explains that climate change increasingly undermines human security in the present day, and will increasingly do so in the future, by reducing access to, and the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain livelihoods. Climate change is also likely to undermine the capacity of states to provide the opportunities and services that help people to sustain their livelihoods. We argue that in certain circumstances these direct and indirect impacts of climate change on human security may in turn increase the risk of violent conflict. The paper then outlines the broad contours of a research programme to guide empirical investigations into the risks climate change poses to human security and peace. Keywords: Climate change,Human security ,Violent conflict , state functions Citedy By: 756 Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk Author: J Birkmann, SL Cutter, DS Rothman, T Welle Journal: Climatic Change,2015,Vol.133 (1), 2015--Pages Abstract: Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research. Keywords: Citedy By: 37 Stable isotope composition of the carbonate concretion in loess and climate change Author: J Han, E Keppens, T Liu, R Paepe, W Jiang Journal: Quaternary International ,Vol.37 (), 1997--Pages Abstract: Carbonate concretions are commonly found in the loess in China. Oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions of carbonate concretions collected from 14 different paleosols (S1–S14) in the Lishi Formation of Luochuan loess section, China were analysed. The isotopic compositions of concretion in loess are useful tools in paleoclimatic study. Usually the more developed the paleosol is, the less negative the d18O values and the more negative the d13C values are. The oxygen isotopic composition of these paleosols varies within a range of about 1.3‰. The carbon isotopic composition, however, shows larger variations from one paleosol to the other, within a range of 5.3‰. An attempt was made to semi-quantitatively estimate the paleosol formation temperature and precipitation based on the carbon and oxygen isotopic data obtained. Keywords: Citedy By: 82 Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa Author: J Sowers, A Vengosh, E Weinthal Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.104 (3-4), 2011--Pages Abstract: Through an examination of global climate change models combined with hydrological data on deteriorating water quality in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), we elucidate the ways in which the MENA countries are vulnerable to climate-induced impacts on water resources. Adaptive governance strategies, however, remain a low priority for political leaderships in the MENA region. To date, most MENA governments have concentrated the bulk of their resources on large-scale supply side projects such as desalination, dam construction, inter-basin water transfers, tapping fossil groundwater aquifers, and importing virtual water. Because managing water demand, improving the efficiency of water use, and promoting conservation will be key ingredients in responding to climate-induced impacts on the water sector, we analyze the political, economic, and institutional drivers that have shaped governance responses. While the scholarly literature emphasizes the importance of social capital to adaptive governance, we find that many political leaders and water experts in the MENA rarely engage societal actors in considering water risks. We conclude that the key capacities for adaptive governance to water scarcity in MENA are underdeveloped. Keywords: Citedy By: 140 The impact of climate change on China's agriculture Author: J Wang, R Mendelsohn, A Dinar, J Huang Journal: Agricultural Economics ,Vol.40 (3), 2009--Pages Abstract: This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross-sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first, but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However, the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow, which may be important in China Keywords: Citedy By: 196 A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies Author: J Wilcox, D Makowski Journal: Field Crops Research ,Vol.156 (1), 2014--Pages Abstract: Future climate change is expected to affect wheat yields. However, it is uncertain if the overall change in climate will result in wheat yield increases or decreases. This is due to the opposing effects of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentration on wheat yields. In this study, a meta-analysis of simulated yield change was conducted to identify the levels of temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration that result in increasing or decreasing wheat yields. With data from 90 studies using computer modeling, we found that more than 50% of the simulated relative yield change resulted in yield losses when mean temperature change is higher than 2.3 °C, or mean precipitation change is null or less, or when CO2 concentration is lower than 395 ppm. A statistical model relating relative yield change to the three considered climatic variables was used to explore a large range of climate change scenarios. Results showed that, in average, the effects of high CO2 concentrations (>640 ppm) outweighed the effects of increasing temperature (up to +2 °C) and moderate declines in precipitation (up to -20%), leading to increasing yields. However, these results varied greatly from site to site, likely due to differences in topography, soils and farming practices. These results also do not take into account the effects of pests, diseases and weeds or climate variability, which may act to decrease wheat yields. Keywords: Wheat Triticum aestivum Climate change Meta-analysis Modeling Yield Citedy By: 33 Adaptation and development: Livelihoods and climate change in Subarnabad, Bangladesh Author: J Pouliotte, B Smit, L Westerhoff Journal: Climate and development,Vol.1 (1), 2009--Pages Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between environmental change and development through a vulnerability study of a rural village in southwest Bangladesh. Villagers deal with a variety of pressing stresses, and climate change is not considered separately, if at all. Environmental, political and economic conditions and adjustments in resource use systems, particularly shrimp farming, have changed livelihood opportunities and increased the vulnerabilities of poor villagers to future environmental changes, including climate change. Practical adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerabilities to climate-related stresses reflect the dynamics of people's livelihoods and address the conditions they currently face. In this case, planned adaptations were mainstreamed in the sense that they contributed to the livelihoods of people and made some improvement in their capacity to deal with changes in climate, and they were undertaken via established non-government institutions. Keywords: Adaptation, Asia, Bangladesh, climate change, livelihoods, vulnerability Citedy By: 87 Expansion of C4 grasses in the Late Miocene of Northern Pakistan: evidence from stable isotopes in paleosols Author: J Quade, TE Cerling Journal: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology ,Vol.115 (1-4), 1995--Pages Abstract: Stable-isotopic, clay-mineralogic, and bulk-chemical analyses were conducted on paleosols of the Neogene Siwalik sections in northern Pakistan in order to reconstruct floodplain environments over the past ~ 17 Ma. The stable carbon isotopic composition of soil carbonate (mean d13C (PDB) = -10.2%) and associated organic matter (mean d13C (PDB) = -24.1%) in paleosols representing 17- ~ 7.3 Ma reveal that floodplain vegetation was dominated by C3 plants. At 7.3 Ma, a shift toward more positive carbon isotopic values began, signaling the gradual expansion of C4 grasses onto the floodplain. From 6 Ma to present, carbon isotopic values for paleosol carbonate (mean d13C (PDB) = +0.6%) and organic matter (mean d13C (PDB) = -14.4%) are uniformly enriched in 13C, indicating the presence of nearly pure C4grassland. Keywords: Citedy By: 335 Faunal and environmental change in the late Miocene Siwaliks of northern Pakistan Author: John C. Barry, ,Michèle E. Morgan, ,Lawrence J. Flynn, ,David Pilbeam, ,Anna K. Behrensmeyer, ,S. Mahmood Raza, ,Imran A. Khan, ,Catherine Badgley, ,Jason Hicks, and ,Jay Kelley, Journal: BioOne,Vol.28 (3), 2002--Pages Abstract: The Siwalik formations of northern Pakistan consist of deposits of ancient rivers that existed throughout the early Miocene through the late Pliocene. The formations are highly fossiliferous with a diverse array of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, which in combination with exceptional lateral exposure and good chronostratigraphic control allows a more detailed and temporally resolved study of the sediments and faunas than is typical in terrestrial deposits. Consequently the Siwaliks provide an opportunity to document temporal differences in species richness, turnover, and ecological structure in a terrestrial setting, and to investigate how such differences are related to changes in the fluvial system, vegetation, and climate. Here we focus on the interval between 10.7 and 5.7 Ma, a time of significant local tectonic and global climatic change. It is also the interval with the best temporal calibration of Siwalik faunas and most comprehensive data on species occurrences. A methodological focus of this paper is on controlling sampling biases that confound biological and ecological signals. Such biases include uneven sampling through time, differential preservation of larger animals and more durable skeletal elements, errors in age-dating imposed by uncertainties in correlation and paleomagnetic timescale calibrations, and uneven taxonomic treatment across groups. We attempt to control for them primarily by using a relative-abundance model to estimate limits for the first and last appearances from the occurrence data. This model also incorporates uncertainties in age estimates. Because of sampling limitations inherent in the terrestrial fossil record, our 100-Kyr temporal resolution may approach the finest possible level of resolution for studies of vertebrate faunal changes over periods of millions of years. Approximately 40,000 specimens from surface and screenwash collections made at 555 localities form the basis of our study. Sixty percent of the localities have maximum and minimum age estimates differing by 100 Kyr or less, 82% by 200 Kyr or less. The fossils represent 115 mammalian species or lineages of ten orders: Insectivora, Scandentia, Primates, Tubulidentata, Proboscidea, Pholidota, Lagomorpha, Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, and Rodentia. Important taxa omitted from this study include Carnivora, Elephantoidea, and Rhinocerotidae. Because different collecting methods were used for large and small species, they are treated separately in analyses. Small species include insectivores, tree shrews, rodents, lagomorphs, and small primates. They generally weigh less than 5 kg. The sediments of the study interval were deposited by coexisting fluvial systems, with the larger emergent Nagri system being displaced between 10.1 and 9.0 Ma by an interfan Dhok Pathan system. In comparison to Nagri floodplains, Dhok Pathan floodplains were less well drained, with smaller rivers having more seasonally variable flow and more frequent avulsions. Paleosol sequences indicate reorganization of topography and drainage accompanying a transition to a more seasonal climate. A few paleosols may have formed under waterlogged, grassy woodlands, but most formed under drier conditions and more closed vegetation. The oxygen isotopic record also indicates significant change in the patterns of precipitation beginning at 9.2 Ma, in what may have been a shift to a drier and more seasonal climate. The carbon isotope record demonstrates that after 8.1 Ma significant amounts of C4 grasses began to appear and that by 6.8 Ma floodplain habitats included extensive C4 grasslands. Plant communities with predominantly C3plants were greatly diminished after 7.0 Ma, and those with predominantly C4 plants, which would have been open woodlands or grassy woodlands, appeared as early as 7.4 Ma. Inferred first and last appearances show a constant, low level of faunal turnover throughout the interval 10.7–5.7-Ma, with three short periods of elevated turnover at 10.3, 7.8, and 7.3–7.0 Ma. The three pulses account for nearly 44% of all turnover. Throughout the late Miocene, species richness declined steadily, and diversity and richness indices together with data on body size imply that community ecological structure changed abruptly just after 10 Ma, and then again at 7.8 Ma. Between 10 and 7.8 Ma the large-mammal assemblages were strongly dominated by equids, with more balanced faunas before and after. The pattern of appearance and disappearance is selective with respect to inferred habits of the animals. Species appearing after 9.0 Ma are grazers or typical of more open habitats, whereas many species that disappear can be linked to more closed vegetation. We presume exceptions to this pattern were animals of the mixed C3/C4communities or the wetter parts of the floodplain that did not persist into the latest Miocene. The pace of extinction accelerates once there is C4 vegetation on the floodplain. The 10.3 Ma event primarily comprises disappearance of taxa that were both common and of long duration. The event does not correlate to any obvious local environmental or climatic event, and the pattern of species disappearance and appearance suggests that biotic interactions may have been more important than environmental change. The 7.8 Ma event is characterized solely by appearances, and that at 7.3 Ma by a combination of appearances and disappearances. These two latest Miocene events include more taxa that were shorter ranging and less common, a difference of mode that developed between approximately 9.0 and 8.5 Ma when many short-ranging and rare species began to make appearances. Both events also show a close temporal correlation to changes in floodplain deposition and vegetation. The 7.8 Ma event follows the widespread appearance of C4vegetation and is coincident with the shift from equid-dominated to more evenly balanced large-mammal assemblages. The 7.3 to 7.0 Ma event starts with the first occurrence of C4-dominated floras and ends with the last occurrence of C3-dominated vegetation. Absence of a consistent relationship between depositional facies and the composition of faunal assemblages leads us to reject fluvial system dynamics as a major cause of faunal change. The close correlation of latest Miocene species turnover and ecological change to expansion of C4plants on the floodplain, in association with oxygen isotopic and sedimentological evidence for increasingly drier and more seasonal climates, causes us to favor explanations based on climatic change for both latest Miocene pulses. The Siwalik record supports neither “coordinated stasis” nor “turnover pulse” evolutionary models. The brief, irregularly spaced pulses of high turnover are characteristic of both the stasis and pulse models, but the high level of background turnover that eliminates 65–70% of the initial species shows there is no stasis in the Siwalik record. In addition, the steadily declining species richness and abrupt, uncoordinated changes in diversity do not fit either model. Keywords: Citedy By: 366 Sociology and climate change Author: John Urry, Journal: Sociology and climate change ,Vol.57 (2), 2009--Pages Abstract: This chapter examines some major changes relating to the contemporary conditions of life upon earth. It deals especially with emergent contradictions that stem from shifts within capitalism over the course of the last century or so. These shifts involve moving from low carbon to high carbon economies/societies, from societies of discipline to societies of control, and more recently from specialized and differentiated zones of consumption to mobile, de-differentiated consumptions of excess. Sociological analysis, I argue, is thus central to examining high carbon societies and climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 47 Consequences of Climate Change on the Ecogeomorphology of Coastal Wetlands Author: John W. DayEmail author , Robert R. Christian, Donald M. Boesch, Alejandro Yáñez-Arancibia, ames Morris, Robert R. Twilley, Larissa Naylor Linda Schaffne, Court Stevenson Journal: Consequences of Climate Change on the Ecogeomorphology of Coastal Wetlands,Vol.31 (3), 2008--Pages Abstract: Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects. Climate change Ecogeomorphology Coastal wetlands Keywords: Citedy By: 197 ADAPTING THE LAW OF WATER MANAGEMENT TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER HYDROPOLITICAL STRESSES1 Author: Joseph W. Dellapenna, Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources,Vol.35 (6), 1999--Pages Abstract: Existing legal regimes for the management of water resources are already stressed by changing technologies and growing populations. There is little reason for doubt that today the planet is undergoing significant and even alarming climate change. In the past such global climatic changes had dramatic effects on water resource availability with disastrous consequences for many human communities. Today's climate changes can be managed without such disastrous consequences for present day communities only if there are major reforms to existing water law regimes at the local, national, and international levels. In particular, at the local and national levels, water resources must be treated as public property rather than as common or private property. At the international level, water must be managed at the drainage basin level rather than according to national boundaries that largely ignore rational water management criteria. At all levels, care must be given to decentralizing decision making and to use economic incentives insofar as possible, without, however, mistaking economic incentives for markets. The public nature of water resources precludes true markets as a significant management tool. Keywords: Citedy By: 52 Climate change and the evolution of C4 photosynthesis Author: JR Ehleringer, RF Sage, LB Flanagan… Journal: Trends in Ecology & Evolution ,Vol.6 (3), 1999--Pages Abstract: Plants assimilate carbon by one of three photosynthetic pathways, commonly called the C3, C4, and CAM pathways. The C4 photosynthetic pathway, found only among the angiosperms, represents a modification of C3 metabolism that is most effective at low concentrations of CO2. Today, C4 plants are most common in hot, open ecosystems, and it is commonly felt that they evolved under these conditions. However, high light and high temperature, by themselves, are not sufficient to favor the evolution of C4 photosynthesis at atmospheric CO2 levels significantly above the current ambient values. A review of evidence suggests that C4 plants evolved in response to a reduction in atmospheric CO2 levels that began during the Cretaceous and continued until the Miocene. Keywords: Citedy By: 493 Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production Author: JW White, G Hoogenboom, BA Kimball, GW Wall Journal: Field Crops Research,Vol.124 (3), 2011--Pages Abstract: Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO2] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO2 involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO2, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO2] typically corresponded to conditions 10–30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO2]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO2] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation. Keywords: Adaptation, Agricultural impacts, Climate change, Crop growth simulation, Global warming, Modeling Citedy By: 279 Monitoring spatio-temporal aerosol patterns over Pakistan based on MODIS, TOMS and MISR satellite data and a HYSPLIT model Author: K Alam, S Qureshi, T Blaschke Journal: Atmospheric Environment ,Vol.45 (27), 2011--Pages Abstract: Three different satellite-borne sensors, namely the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of aerosols over several cities in Pakistan. A Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used for trajectory analysis in order to reconstruct the origins of air masses and understand the spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations. Recent MODIS aerosol data (2002–2008) and earlier TOMS data (1979–2001) revealed increasing concentrations of aerosols over Pakistan and adjacent areas. Validation of MODIS and MISR derived aerosol optical depths (AODs) with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data for 2007 demonstrated that the MISR data was more accurate when close to the ocean, while the MODIS was more accurate over vegetated areas. The relationship between MODIS and MISR AOD data from 2002 to 2008 was analyzed, revealing a strong correlation between the two datasets. An assessment of seasonal variability in AOD for industrial, urban, semi-urban, rural, and semi-arid areas revealed maximum AOD values during the summer over all the areas investigated. Back trajectory analyses indicated that while winter air masses reaching Pakistan had travelled long distances, summer air masses had travelled only short distances. The higher aerosol concentrations during the summer are interpreted to be a result of the air masses spending more time over land during the summer than they do during the winter. While monsoonal rainfall tends to reduce aerosol concentrations by washing aerosols out of the atmosphere, this effect is mainly restricted to the eastern and south-eastern parts of Pakistan Keywords: Aerosols TOMS MODIS MISR AERONET HYSPLIT AOD Remote sensing Pakistan Citedy By: 69 Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century Author: K Braganza, DJ Karoly Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.31 (13), 2004--Pages Abstract: The usefulness of global-average diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an index of climate change and variability is evaluated using observations and climate model simulations representing unforced climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. On decadal timescales, modelled and observed intrinsic variability of DTR compare well and are independent of variations in global mean temperature. Observed reductions in DTR over the last century are large and unlikely to be due to natural variability alone. Comparison of observed and anthropogenic-forced model changes in DTR over the last 50 years show much less reduction in DTR in the model simulations due to greater warming of maximum temperatures in the models than observed. This difference is likely attributed to increases in cloud cover that are observed over the same period and are absent in model simulation Keywords: Citedy By: 191 How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change? Author: Karen Hardee,Leiwen Jiang, Journal: Population Research and Policy Review,Vol.30 (2), 2011--Pages Abstract: Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban–rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Keywords: Population Climate change Demographic trend Mitigation and adaptation Citedy By: 123 Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Species Richness of Long-Distance Migrants Author: Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Nicole Lemoine Journal: Conservation Biology,Vol.17 (2), 2003--Pages Abstract: Little evidence exists demonstrating that global climate change leads to systematic changes in the structure of ecological communities. For avian communities, one would expect warmer winters to lead to declines in numbers of long-distance migrants if resident birds benefit from warmer winters and impose increasing competitive pressure on migrants. To study the potential influence of global climate change on long-distance migrants, we correlated the number of all species of land birds and the number and proportion of long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants, and residents in 595 grid cells across Europe. We used mean temperature of the coldest month, mean spring temperature, and spring precipitation as measures of climatic conditions in winter and during the breeding period. The number and proportion of long-distance migrants decreased with increasing winter temperature, decreasing spring temperature, and increasing spring precipitation. We used this spatial relationship between bird community structure and climate in Europe to make predictions about changes in bird communities of the Lake Constance region, Central Europe, between two census periods ( 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 ). Winter temperature in this region increased significantly between the two censuses, whereas spring temperature and precipitation did not change. As predicted from the models, the proportion of long-distance migrants decreased and the number and proportion of short-distance migrants and residents increased between the two censuses. The significant declines of the long-distance migrants in the Lake Constance region are of a magnitude that can be explained by the observed climate change. Our results suggest that increasingly warmer winters may pose a more severe threat to long-distance migrants than to the other bird groups. Keywords: Citedy By: 134 Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Species Richness of Long-Distance Migrants Author: Katrin Böhning-Gaese,Nicole Lemoine, Journal: Conservation Biology,Vol.17 (2), 2003--Pages Abstract: Little evidence exists demonstrating that global climate change leads to systematic changes in the structure of ecological communities. For avian communities, one would expect warmer winters to lead to declines in numbers of long-distance migrants if resident birds benefit from warmer winters and impose increasing competitive pressure on migrants. To study the potential influence of global climate change on long-distance migrants, we correlated the number of all species of land birds and the number and proportion of long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants, and residents in 595 grid cells across Europe. We used mean temperature of the coldest month, mean spring temperature, and spring precipitation as measures of climatic conditions in winter and during the breeding period. The number and proportion of long-distance migrants decreased with increasing winter temperature, decreasing spring temperature, and increasing spring precipitation. We used this spatial relationship between bird community structure and climate in Europe to make predictions about changes in bird communities of the Lake Constance region, Central Europe, between two census periods ( 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 ). Winter temperature in this region increased significantly between the two censuses, whereas spring temperature and precipitation did not change. As predicted from the models, the proportion of long-distance migrants decreased and the number and proportion of short-distance migrants and residents increased between the two censuses. The significant declines of the long-distance migrants in the Lake Constance region are of a magnitude that can be explained by the observed climate change. Our results suggest that increasingly warmer winters may pose a more severe threat to long-distance migrants than to the other bird groups. Keywords: Citedy By: 134 The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases Author: KD Lafferty Journal: Ecology,Vol.90 (4), 2009--Pages Abstract: The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate. Keywords: Citedy By: 618 Glacier Change, Concentration, and Elevation Effects in the Karakoram Himalaya, Upper Indus Basin Author: Kenneth Hewitt Journal: Mountain Research and Development ,Vol.31 (3), 2011--Pages Abstract: This paper seeks to explain evidence of distinctive late- and post-Little Ice Age glacier change in the Karakoram Himalaya and a recent, seemingly anomalous, expansion. Attention is directed to processes that support and concentrate glacier mass, including an all-year accumulation regime, avalanche nourishment, and effects related to elevation. Glacier basins have exceptional elevation ranges, and rockwalls make up the larger part of their area. However, more than 80% of the ice cover is concentrated between 4000 and 5500 m elevation. Classification into Turkestan-, Mustagh-, and Alpine-type glaciers is revisited to help identify controls over mass balance. Estimates of changes based on snowlines, equilibrium line altitudes, and accumulation area ratio are shown to be problematic. Extensive debris covers in ablation zone areas protect glacier tongues. They are relatively insensitive to climate change, and their importance for water supply has been exaggerated compared to clean and thinly covered ablation zone ice. Recent changes include shifts in seasonal temperatures, snowfall, and snow cover at high elevations. Understanding their significance involves rarely investigated conditions at higher elevations that lack monitoring programs Keywords: Avalanche nourishment, glacier classification, ELA, AAR, rockwalls, debris-covered glaciers, elevation effects Citedy By: 128 Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation—conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing countries Author: Kirsten Halsnæs,Jan Verhagen, Journal: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ,Vol.12 (5), 2007--Pages Abstract: This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established. Keywords: Development and climate change linkages Wellbeing indicators Energy-, food-, and water security in developing countries Citedy By: 78 Climate change vulnerability and adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan Author: KM Salik, S Jahangir, S ul Hasson Journal: Ocean & Coastal Management ,Vol.112 (), 2015--Pages Abstract: This study aims to explore climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Indus Delta. We evaluate the linkages between vulnerability indicators by relating a community perceptions with observed and projected climate change scenarios. In evaluating these linkages, some key questions are considered such as: what are the likely socio-economic drivers contributing to community's sensitivity? Are these drivers impacting the community and how much is the community's coping potential to climate change? What are the key adaptation options necessary for increasing the community's resilience? This study is carried out in a coastal town (Keti Bandar), which is located in the Indus delta. This region is highly sensitive to declining fresh water flows, changing climate and meager socio-economic resources of local population. We have used the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) approach in order to draw a general picture of the community's vulnerability under a changing climate in Keti Bandar. The data for three CVI components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) are collected at household level through questionnaire-based survey in six villages, however for exposure, secondary data is also acquired. Our assessment shows that these coastal communities, either engaged with the fishery or agriculture sector, are not only exposed, but are also highly sensitive to climate change driven threats. Moreover, lack of access to basic facilities, inadequate income diversification, and low education levels are negatively affecting the adaptive capacity of the entire local population. However, the communities' nature of dwelling, their strong family networks, and their ability to migrate contribute positively to their adaptive capacity. Keywords: Composite Vulnerability Index Indus Delta Expos Citedy By: 16 Neogene climate change and emergence of C4 grasses in the Namib, southwestern Africa, as reflected in ratite 13C and 18O Author: L Ségalen, M Renard, JA Lee-Thorp Journal: Earth and Planetary Science Letters ,Vol.344 (3-4), 2006--Pages Abstract: Stable light isotopes in ratite eggshells have been shown to be reliable indicators of shifts in climate and environmental conditions in the past. Here, we show that d18O and d13C values in fossil and modern ratite eggshells collected in the aeolianite deposits of the southern and central Namib Desert track regional distinctions and global climate shifts throughout the Neogene. d18O values, although variable, are consistently higher in the central compared to the southern Namib throughout the record. d18O trends during the Miocene differ for the two regions, but track each other post-Miocene. Throughout the Miocene, d13C values for ratite eggshells from both the central and southern Namib regions are indistinguishable showing that the flora remained C3 throughout. The overall negative (- 3‰) shift in mean values for Miocene biostratigraphic zones is consistent with the response of C3 photosynthesis to pCO2 shifts from 180 to 320 ppmv as estimated from marine alkenone studies and/or evolution of the d13C of the atmospheric CO2. Evidence for C4 plants occurs post-Miocene, with the development of the southern, winter rainfall and central/northern, summer rainfall zonation apparent today. These data provide independent corroboration that the expansion of C4-dominated ecosystems after ~ 7 Ma cannot be attributed to a reduction of pCO2 below a 500 ppmv threshold, as earlier proposed. Proliferation of C4 plants in the Namib after ~ 5 Ma and, elsewhere, may be related rather to energy budgets and rainfall seasonality shifts resulting from large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation reorganisation. Keywords: Miocene ratite eggshells Namib Desert stable isotopes pCO2 C4 expansion Citedy By: 51 Oxygen isotope evidence of climate change from pedogenic clay minerals in the Himalayan molasse Author: LA Stern, CP Chamberlain, RC Reynolds Journal: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta,Vol.66 (4), 1997--Pages Abstract: In this study, we examine the oxygen isotope ratios of smectite and kaolinite in a stratigraphic sequence of paleosols in the Siwalik Himalayan molasse on the Potwar Plateau, northern Pakistan. There is a 3–4%o increase in the smectite d18O values synchronous with a ~ 3.5%o increase in d18O values of pedogenic calcite at 8.5–6.5 Ma (previously observed by Quade et al., 1989). The covariation of the d18O values of smectite with calcite gd18O values through time strongly suggests a pedogenic origin of smectite and that its d18O values reflect the oxygen isotope ratio of the soil water present during pedogenesis. These data show that the d18O values of clay minerals in paleosols in aggrading sedimentary sequences are viable paleoclimate indicators. Kaolinite d18O values are similar to smectite d18O values, as would be expected for pedogenic kaolinite, but there is greater variation in these data which we attribute to incomplete mineral separation. The measured permil oxygen isotope fractionation between calcite and smectite within individual paleosols is, on average, ~3%o higher than the equilibrium fractionation. This isotopic disequilibrium can be explained by the calcite forming predominantly during the dry winter season and the smectite forming predominantly during the wet summer season. The synchronous 3.5%o increase in oxygen isotope ratios of smectite and calcite at 8.5–6.5 Ma indicates that this 18O/16O increase is not due to diagenesis, but rather results from a climate change. The most likely causes of the 18O/16O increase in smectite and calcite are either increased aridity resulting in increased soil water evaporation (thus 18O enrichment) and/or a change from more continental to more marine-sourced precipitation. The Tibetan Plateau, which is suggested to have undergone rapid uplift around 8 Ma (e.g., Harrison et al., 1992), may have acted as an effective orographic barrier to low d18O precipitation originating from central Asia, causing higher d18O values of the precipitation falling on the Potwar Plateau. Currently it is impossible to distinguish between these two potential causes of the 18O/16O increase at 8.5–6.5 Ma, but these clay mineral d18O values support that there was a significant climate change in this region. Keywords: Citedy By: 109 Climate Change Impacts on the Future Distribution of Date Palms: A Modeling Exercise Using CLIMEX Author: Lalit Kumar, Subhashni Taylor,Farzin Shabani Journal: PloS one, 2012,Vol. (), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries’ economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation. Keywords: Citedy By: 49 Farmer beliefs and concerns about climate change and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation: Evidence from Iowa Author: Lois Wright Morton,Jon Hobbs,J. Gordon ArbuckleJr., Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.118 (3-4), 2013--Pages Abstract: Agriculture is both vulnerable to climate change impacts and a significant source of greenhouse gases. Increasing agriculture’s resilience and reducing its contribution to climate change are societal priorities. Survey data collected from Iowa farmers are analyzed to answer the related research questions: (1) do farmers support adaptation and mitigation actions, and (2) do beliefs and concerns about climate change influence those attitudes. Results indicate that farmers who were concerned about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and attributed it to human activities had more positive attitudes toward both adaptive and mitigative management strategies. Farmers who believed that climate change is not a problem because human ingenuity will enable adaptations and who did not believe climate change is occurring or believed it is a natural phenomenon—a substantial percentage of farmers—tended not to support mitigation Keywords: Citedy By: 84 Climate Change and Highland Malaria: Fresh Air for a Hot Debate Author: Luis Fernando CJM Koenraadt Chaves Journal: Quarterly Review of Biology,Vol.85 (1), 2010--Pages Abstract: In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales. Keywords: mosquito; Anopheles; time series; population dynamics; disease emergence; land use change Citedy By: 140 Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan Author: M Abid, J Schilling, J Scheffran, F Zulfiqar Journal: Science of The Total Environment ,Vol.547 (), 2016--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory services Keywords: Citedy By: 14 Adaptation to climate change and its impacts on food productivity and crop income: Perspectives of farmers in rural Pakistan Author: M Abid, UA Schneider, J Scheffran Journal: Journal of Rural Studies ,Vol.47 (1), 2016--Pages Abstract: Evaluation of the ongoing efforts for farm level adaptation to climate change is crucial to understand their effectiveness and to suggest further actions at the policy level. The current study explores the adaptation of wheat farmers to climate change, its determinants and its impact on food productivity and crop income in rural Pakistan. This study is based on a primary dataset of 442 wheat farmers conducted through face-to-face structured interviews from 65 villages across three agro-ecological zones of Punjab Province, Pakistan. The study employs logistic regression analysis to find adaptation determinants and uses the propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal impact of adaptation on food productivity and crop income. The results of the study suggest that wheat farmers were well aware of climate change, but for various reasons did not adapt accordingly. The major adaptation strategies implemented by wheat farmers include changing planting dates, crop varieties and fertilizer types. Moreover, education, farming experience, access to agricultural extension, weather forecasting and marketing information were the factors that significantly affected farmers' adaptation decisions. Adapting wheat crops to climate change significantly and positively affects wheat productivity and net crop income and hence indirectly improves the farmers' wellbeing and local food security. More benefits were achieved by farmers who used a combination of different adaptation strategies. The study suggests to focus on farmers' education, easy access to farm advisory services and information on new adaptation methods for sustainable food production and local food security. Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Food productivity Crop income Rural Pakistan Citedy By: 8 Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan Author: M. Abid, J. Scheffran, U. A. Schneider, and M. Ashfaq Journal: Earth System Dynamics ,Vol.6 (1), 2015--Pages Abstract: Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the countries negatively affected by climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data from 450 households collected from three districts in three agroecological zones in the Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examines how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness of climate change is widespread throughout the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, planting of shade trees and changing fertilizers were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. The results from the binary logistic model reveal that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of a tube well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and agricultural extension services all influence farmers' choices of adaptation measures. The results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, resource constraints and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need for greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing. Keywords: Citedy By: 28 Construction of a 1961–1990 European climatology for climate change modelling and impact applications Author: M. Hulme, D. Conway, P. D. Jones,T. Jiang, E. M. Barrow, C. Turney Journal: International Journal of Climatology,Vol.15 (12), 1995--Pages Abstract: A 1961–1990 mean monthly climatology for a ‘greater European’ region extending from 32°W to 66°E and from 25° to 81°N has been constructed at a resolution of 0.5°latitude by 0.5° longitude for a suite of nine surface climate variables: minimum, maximum, and mean air temperature; precipitation totals; sunshine hours; vapour pressure; wind speed; and (ground) frost day and rain day ( > 0.1 mm) frequencies. This climatology has been constructed from observed station data distributed across the region. Station frequencies range from 936 (wind speed) to 3078 (precipitation). Over 95 per cent of these data are based on observations between 1961 and 1990 and over 90 per cent were supplied by individual national meteorological agencies (NMAs) on specific request. For four variables, some standardization of the data had to be performed because different countries supplied data under different definitions. Thus cloud cover had to be converted to sunshine hours, relative humidity to vapour pressure, air frost days to ground frost days and rain days > 1 mm to rain days > 0.1 mm. The interpolation of the station data to the grid used elevation as one of the predictor variables and thus enabled three climate surfaces to be produced for each variable, reflecting the minimum, mean, and maximum elevation within each 0.5° by 0.5° cell. Subsets of stations were used for the interpolation of each variable, the selection being based on optimizing the spatial distribution, source priority and length of record. The accuracy of the various interpolations was assessed using validation sets of independent station data (i.e. those not used in the interpolation). Estimated mean absolute errors (MAE) ranged from under 4 per cent for vapour pressure to about 10 per cent for precipitation and up to 20 per cent for wind speed. The accuracy of the interpolated surfaces for minimum and maximum temperature was between 0.5°C and 0.8°C. We believe these results constitute the first climatology that has been constructed for this extensive European region at such a fine spatial resolution (0.5° by 0.5°) from relatively dense station networks, for three different elevation surfaces and for a wide range of surface climate variables, all expressed with respect to a standard 30-year period. The climatology is already being used by researchers for applications in the areas of ecosystem modelling, climate change impact assessment and climate model validation, and is available from the authors. Keywords: Citedy By: 174 Construction of a 1961–1990 European climatology for climate change modelling and impact applications Author: M. Hulme,D. Conway,P. D. Jones,T. Jiang,E. M. Barrow,C. Turney, Journal: International Journal of Climatology,Vol.15 (12), 1995--Pages Abstract: A 1961–1990 mean monthly climatology for a ‘greater European’ region extending from 32°W to 66°E and from 25° to 81°N has been constructed at a resolution of 0.5°latitude by 0.5° longitude for a suite of nine surface climate variables: minimum, maximum, and mean air temperature; precipitation totals; sunshine hours; vapour pressure; wind speed; and (ground) frost day and rain day ( > 0.1 mm) frequencies. This climatology has been constructed from observed station data distributed across the region. Station frequencies range from 936 (wind speed) to 3078 (precipitation). Over 95 per cent of these data are based on observations between 1961 and 1990 and over 90 per cent were supplied by individual national meteorological agencies (NMAs) on specific request. For four variables, some standardization of the data had to be performed because different countries supplied data under different definitions. Thus cloud cover had to be converted to sunshine hours, relative humidity to vapour pressure, air frost days to ground frost days and rain days > 1 mm to rain days > 0.1 mm. The interpolation of the station data to the grid used elevation as one of the predictor variables and thus enabled three climate surfaces to be produced for each variable, reflecting the minimum, mean, and maximum elevation within each 0.5° by 0.5° cell. Subsets of stations were used for the interpolation of each variable, the selection being based on optimizing the spatial distribution, source priority and length of record. The accuracy of the various interpolations was assessed using validation sets of independent station data (i.e. those not used in the interpolation). Estimated mean absolute errors (MAE) ranged from under 4 per cent for vapour pressure to about 10 per cent for precipitation and up to 20 per cent for wind speed. The accuracy of the interpolated surfaces for minimum and maximum temperature was between 0.5°C and 0.8°C. We believe these results constitute the first climatology that has been constructed for this extensive European region at such a fine spatial resolution (0.5° by 0.5°) from relatively dense station networks, for three different elevation surfaces and for a wide range of surface climate variables, all expressed with respect to a standard 30-year period. The climatology is already being used by researchers for applications in the areas of ecosystem modelling, climate change impact assessment and climate model validation, and is available from the authors. Keywords: Citedy By: 174 Virtual water trade flows and savings under climate change Author: M. Konar1,2, Z. Hussein3 , N. Hanasaki4 , D. L. Mauzerall1,5, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe1 Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences; ,Vol.17 (8), 2013--Pages Abstract: The international trade of food commodities links water and food systems, with important implications for both water and food security. The embodied water resources associated with food trade are referred to as “virtual water trade”. We present the first study of the impact of climate change on global virtual water trade flows and associated savings for the year 2030. In order to project virtual water trade and savings under climate change, it is essential to obtain projections of both bilateral crop trade and the virtual water content of crops in each country of production. We use the Global Trade Analysis Project model to estimate bilateral crop trade under changes in agricultural productivity for rice, soy, and wheat. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to crop evapotranspiration for rice, soy, and wheat in each country of production. Then, we combine projections of bilateral crop trade with estimates of virtual water content to obtain virtual water trade flows under climate change. We find that the total volume of virtual water trade is likely to go down under climate change, due to decreased crop trade from higher crop prices under scenarios of declining crop yields and due to decreased virtual water content under high agricultural productivity scenarios. However, the staple food trade is projected to save more water across most climate change scenarios, largely because the wheat trade re-organizes into a structure where large volumes of wheat are traded from relatively water-efficient exporters to less efficient importers Keywords: Citedy By: 64 Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan Author: M. Shahzad Khattak, M. S. Babel and M. Sharif Journal: Climate Research,Vol.46 (2), 2011--Pages Abstract: We examined trends in several hydro-meteorological variables in the upper Indus River basin (UIRB) in Pakistan. To represent the diversity of hydro-meteorological conditions in the basin, mean monthly data from 20 meteorological and 8 hydrometric stations were analyzed for detection of trends using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test in combination with the trend-free pre-whitening approach for correcting time series data sets for serial correlation. Sen's slope method, a non-parametric alternative for estimating a slope for a univariate time series, was used to determine the magnitude of trends. The meteorological variables we considered were: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation, whereas the hydrological variable considered was streamflow. For several of the variables, many more trends were identified than can be expected to occur by chance. Analysis of winter maximum temperature revealed an increasing trend with the trend in slopes of 1.79, 1.66, and 1.20°C per 39 yr for the upper, middle, and lower regions, respectively. Precipitation trends were inconsistent and showed no definite pattern. Trends in streamflow were found to be related to increasing trends in mean maximum temperature, particularly in winter and spring seasons. Increased winter temperatures are likely to increase streamflow in winter and spring. During summer months streamflow will decrease and reduce the availability of water in the Tarbela Dam, thereby requiring changes in the reservoir operating policy towards more efficient management of available water. Keywords: Citedy By: 64 Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications Author: M. Monirul Qader Mirza Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (1), 2011--Pages Abstract: South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas. Keywords: Climate change Flooding South Asia Crop damage Food security Citedy By: 103 Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications Author: M. Monirul Qader Mirza, Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (1), 2011--Pages Abstract: South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas. Keywords: Climate change Flooding South Asia Crop damage Food security Citedy By: 103 Adaptive thermal comfort and sustainable thermal standards for buildings Author: M.A.HumphreysJ.F.Nicol Journal: Energy and Buildings ,Vol.34 (6), 2002--Pages Abstract: The origin and development of the adaptive approach to thermal comfort is explained. A number of recent developments in the application of the theory are considered and the origin of the differences between adaptive thermal comfort and the ‘rational’ indices is explored. The application of the adaptive approach to thermal comfort standards is considered and recommendations made as to the best comfort temperature, the range of comfortable environments and the maximum rate of change of indoor temperature. The application of criteria of sustainability to thermal standards for buildings is also considered. Keywords: Comfort standards Thermal comfort Sustainability Adaptive approach Citedy By: 981 Snowmaking and Climate Change Author: Marius Mayer , , Robert Steiger Journal: Mountain Research and Development,Vol.28 (3-4), 2008--Pages Abstract: Winter tourism is highly sensitive to climate change. The sufficiently studied altitudinally dependent line of natural snow reliability is losing its relevance for skilift operators in Austria, where 59% of the ski area is covered by artificial snowmaking. But the diffusion of snowmaking facilities cannot be monocausally linked to climate change, as trends in tourism, prestige, and competitive advantage are important factors. Despite the fact that snowmaking is limited by climatological factors, skilift operators trust in technical improvements and believe the future will not be as menacing as assumed by recent climate change impact studies. The aim of the present study is to define reasons for the diffusion of snowmaking systems and to determine whether snowmaking can be a viable adaptation strategy despite ongoing warming, using a simple degree-day model. Results obtained with this method of assessing technical snow reliability show that current snowmaking intensity will not be sufficient to guarantee the desired 100-day season at elevations below 1500–1600 m. Snowmaking will still be possible climatically even at lower elevations, but the required intensification of capacity will lead to significantly higher operation costs. Keywords: Snowmaking, ski tourism, climate change, Alps, Austria Citedy By: 128 Accelerating extinction risk from climate change Author: MC Urban Journal: Science,Vol.348 (6234), 2015--Pages Abstract: Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Keywords: Citedy By: 222 Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? Author: MHI Dore Journal: Environment International,Vol.31 (8), 2005--Pages Abstract: The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Niño and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed “dipole” pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply. Keywords: Precipitation pattern Northern Hemisphere El Niño Citedy By: 497 Economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Pakistan Author: Mirza Nomman Ahmed, Michael Schmitz Journal: Business and Economic Horizons,Vol. (4), 2011--Pages Abstract: Climate Change in Pakistan among others manifests itself in temperature increases, rainfall reduction in the arid plains and increases in the monsoon areas and last but not least, accelerated glacial melt. All these and other developments call for a deeper insight into the effects Recent Climate Change - or Weather Change has had on Pakistan in the course of the last 17 years. In this context the threats to food security remain one core issue to be investigated based on productivity analysis. This article studies how climate change affects the agricultural productivity in Pakistan`s four provinces Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and the N.W.F.P., measured as weighted food crop yields per hectare, for the food crops wheat, rice and maize. By considering the RABI (Nov-Apr) growing season and including a measure for drought to capture the occurrence of extreme events, exacerbated through climate change, the proposed hypothesis is that changing climatic variables have reduced and are reducing the agricultural productivity and thus posing a threat to long term food security. To depict the effect of climate change, several control variables are introduced in a panel framework for intertemporal analysis. As a result, we should expect lower levels of productivity in the arid zones with greater climatic pressure and adverse effects on food security through lower agricultural yields. Keywords: Climate change; Pakistan; panel model; Citedy By: 10 Climate Change Risk and Reduction Approaches in Pakistan Author: Mohammad Aslam Khan, Journal: Disaster Risk Reduction Approaches in Pakistan ,Vol. (), 2014--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries facing the risk of climate change, despite contributing very little to the global greenhouse gas emissions. The 2010 Global Climate Risk Index of Germanwatch ranked it first among some 180 nations of the world. The country’s vulnerabilities are high due to heavy dependence of its economy on agriculture, which is highly climate sensitive; water supply of its rivers from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers, which are reported to be receding due to global warming; and increased risks to its coastal areas (particularly to Karachi, its largest city and the hub of its industrial activity and international trade) and the Indus deltaic region due to sea level rise and increasing cyclonic activity. Compounding the problems are the extreme weather events, which have enhanced in their frequency and intensity in the country. An analysis of data from 52 meteorological stations in Pakistan over a 40-year period (1961–2000) shows that the frequency of highest daily temperature and heaviest rainfall events have increased by the passing decades. Moreover, at the turn of the century, the country experienced the worst drought of its history and in the first decade of the twenty-first century saw several extreme weather events including the history’s worst flood in 2010. In terms of risks, climate change poses a major threat to all dimensions of sustainable development, economic, social as well as environmental. It is likely to have widespread impacts across various sectors and ecosystems such as food, water and energy; forests and biodiversity; coastal and marine environment; as well as on the occurrence and intensity of climate related hazards such as floods and droughts. This Chapter examines first the climate variability trends that Indicate continuous warming. It then evaluates vulnerabilities and risks posed by climate change, which are increasing with time particularly in terms of enhanced climate related hazards. Finally, it analyzes the key approaches and measures that have been adopted to reduce the risks posed by climate change. Keywords: Climate change Climate variability Vulnerability and risk Observed impacts Response approaches Citedy By: 182 Climate Change and Mountain Topographic Evolution in the Central Karakoram, Pakistan Author: MP Bishop, ABG Bush, L Copland, U Kamp Journal: Annals of the Association of American Geographers ,Vol.100 (4), 2010--Pages Abstract: Mountain geodynamics represent highly scale-dependent interactions involving climate, tectonic, and surface processes. The central Karakoram in Pakistan exhibit strong climate–tectonic feedbacks, although the detailed tectonic and topographic responses to climate perturbations need to be systematically explored. This study focuses on understanding climate variations in relation to glacier erosion and relief production. Field data, climate modeling, remote sensing, geomorphometry, geochronology, glaciology, and geomorphological assessment are utilized to characterize climate change and geomorphic response. Climate simulations suggest that the region has experienced significant climate change due to radiative forcing over at least the past million years due to changes in Earth's orbital configuration, as well as more temporally rapid climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Paleoclimate simulations support geomorphological evidence of multiple glaciations and long-term glacier retreat. Mesoscale relief patterns clearly depict erosion zones that are spatially coincident with high peaks and rapid exhumation. These patterns depict extreme spatial and temporal variability of the influence of glacier erosion in the topographic evolution of the region. Results support the interpretation of high-magnitude glacial erosion as a significant denudational agent in the exhumation of the central Karakoram. Consequently, a strong linkage is seen to occur between global, or at least hemispheric, climate change and the topographic evolution of the Karakoram and the western Himalaya. . Keywords: Karakoram, climate forcing, erosion, glaciation, landscape evolution Citedy By: 11 Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia Author: Murari Lal, Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (1), 2011--Pages Abstract: One of the targets of the United Nations ‘Millennium Development Goals’ adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However, crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when, where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security, such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that, on an aggregate level, there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2°C; until 2020s), provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would, however, continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond), productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2°C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3°C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system, the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of ~2°C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season. Keywords: Climatic change and food security South Asia Crop simulation models Net cereal production Water availability for irrigation Citedy By: 45 Climate Change in South Asia Author: MVK Sivakumar, R Stefanski Journal: Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia,Vol. (), 2010--Pages Abstract: South Asia, is home to over one fifth of the world’s population and is known to be the most disaster prone region in the world. The high rates of ­population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In general, past and present climate trends and ­variability in South Asia can be characterized by increasing air temperatures and there is an increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in South Asia over the last century. Temperature projections for South Asia for the twenty-first century suggest a significant acceleration of warming over that observed in the ­twentieth century. Recent modelling experiments indicate that the warming would be ­significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia. An increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including heat wave and intense precipitation events is projected in South Asia, along with an increase in the interannual variability of daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon. The projected impacts of climate change in South Asia will vary across sectors, locations and populations. Temperature rise will negatively impact crop yields in tropical parts of South Asia where these crops are already being grown close to their temperature tolerance threshold. While direct impacts are associated with rise in temperatures, indirect impacts due to water availability and changing soil moisture status and pest and disease incidence are likely to be felt. The most significant impacts are likely to be borne by small-holder rainfed farmers who constitute the majority of farmers in this region and possess low financial and technical capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. The projected impacts of climate change in different parts of South Asia are described. The coping capacity of the rural poor, especially in the marginal areas, is low and there is a need to mainstream the good practices for adaptation to climate change into sustainable development planning in the region. Improved understanding of the climate change impacts, vulnerability and the adaptation practices to cope with climate change could help this process. Keywords: Indian sub-continent Mangroves El-Niño ENSO Rainfall ­variability Productivity Fisheries Sea level rise Citedy By: 47 Institutional and technological innovation: Understanding agricultural adaptation to climate change in Nepal Author: N Chhetri, P Chaudhary, PR Tiwari, RB Yadaw Journal: Applied Geography ,Vol.33 (), 2012--Pages Abstract: History shows that farmers and their supporting institutions have been successful in introducing technological innovations to respond and adapt to environmental and socioeconomic challenges. Innovation itself is a mechanism by which society adapt to changing resource endowments, and which is in turn driven by social and cultural values. In the future, as resource conditions changes, the role of institutions in the process of technological innovations would be crucial to avoid deleterious consequences of climate change in agriculture. Using Nepal as a case, this paper illustrates how farmers and their supporting institutions are evolving and co-producing climate sensitive technologies on demand. Drawing upon the hypothesis of induced innovation, we examine the extent to which resource endowments have influenced the evolution of technological and institutional innovations in Nepal’s agricultural research and development. This study reveals that Nepal has developed a novel multilevel institutional partnership, including collaboration with farmers and other non-governmental organizations in recent years. More importantly, by combining conventional technological innovation process with the tacit knowledge of farmers, this new alliance has been instrumental in the innovation of location-specific technologies thereby facilitating the adoption of technologies in a more efficient manner. This alliance has improved knowledge network among institutions, scientists and farmers and enabled them to seek technologies that are responsive to likely changes in climate. Keywords: Climate change Adaptation Institutional innovation Technological change Nepal Citedy By: 75 Thermal comfort of outdoor spaces in Lahore, Pakistan: Lessons for bioclimatic urban design in the context of global climate change Author: N Mazhar, RD Brown, N Kenny, S Lenzholzer Journal: Landscape and Urban Planning ,Vol.138 (), 2015--Pages Abstract: Humans interact with urban microclimates through exchanges of energy. A surplus of energy can create thermal discomfort and be detrimental to human health. Many cities in warm regions all over the world are forecast to become very hot through global climate change. Some cities already experience extreme heat and have done so for centuries. We conducted a study of one such city in order to generate design guidelines for creating thermally comfortable outdoor places. In the hot, dry city of Lahore, Pakistan we compared the microclimates of two very different outdoor spaces. The first place was the 16th century Shalimar Garden, which contains much green infrastructure and water features. The other example was the hard-surfaced courtyard of the contemporary Alhamra Art Centre. In both places we measured the microclimatic characteristics and used those data to simulate thermal sensation through the energy-budget model COMFA. The measured air temperature and humidity in both spaces was similar. However, the solar radiation that would be received by a person in the Alhamra courtyard was much higher than in Shalimar Garden and was the main determinant of thermal discomfort. Results from this study can inform other cities in hot, dry climates about design responses that provide more outdoor thermal comfort and prevent health-threatening heat. Keywords: Landscape architecture Microclimate Energy budget Model Citedy By: 14 Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change Author: Nicole Lemoine,Hans-Christian Schaefer, Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Journal: Global Ecology and Biogeography,Vol.16 (1), 2017--Pages Abstract: Aim Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change. Location Europe. Methods We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change. Results Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found. Main conclusions This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities. Keywords: Citedy By: 84 Developing strategies for climate change : the UNEP country studies on climate change impacts and adaptations assessment Author: O'Brien, Karen Journal: Report/CICERO-Senter for klimaforskning,Vol. (), 2000--Pages Abstract: This report summarizes four country studies that were undertaken as part of the UNEP "Country Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessment." These studies, carried out in Antigua and Barbuda, Cameroon, Estonia, and Pakistan, were funded by the Global Environmental Facility and managed as a project of the UNEP Atmosphere Unit in Nairobi, Kenya. These country studies illustrate the importance of adopting a flexible approach to the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptations. While the UNEP Handbook on Methods served as a common reference for the study teams, each team found it necessary to adapt these methods - sometimes to a considerable extent - to meet the specific needs of the country. Moreover, two of the country studies (Estonia and Pakistan) were able to build on previous work on climate impacts, while the other two (Antigua and Barbuda and Cameroon) broke new ground. The studies provide a basic foundation for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures necessary to address them. They indicate the scope of the problems in each of the countries studied, as well as the direction adaptation studies should take. Most importantly, they demonstrate that while each country has a unique set of problems and strategies, all countries will benefit from long-term sustainable development. Keywords: Citedy By: 29 Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment Author: P Döll Journal: Environmental Research Letters,Vol.8 (12), 2007--Pages Abstract: Climate change will lead to significant changes of groundwater recharge and thus renewable groundwater resources. Using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and the number of affected people was computed for four climate scenarios by two climate models. Vulnerability of humans to decreased groundwater resources depends on both the degree of decrease and the sensitivity of the human system to the decrease. For each grid cell, a sensitivity index composed of a water scarcity indicator, an indicator for dependence of water supply on groundwater and the Human Development Index was quantified. Combining per cent groundwater recharge decrease with the sensitivity index, global maps of vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s were derived. In the A2 (B2) emissions scenario, 18.4–19.3% (16.1–18.1%) of the global population of 10.7 (9.1) billion would be affected by groundwater recharge decreases of at least 10%, and 4.8–5.7% (3.8–3.8%) of the global population would be in the two highest vulnerability classes. The highest vulnerabilities are found at the North African rim of the Mediterranean Sea, in southwestern Africa, in northeastern Brazil and in the central Andes, which are areas of moderate to high sensitivity. For most of the areas with high population density and high sensitivity, model results indicate that groundwater recharge is unlikely to decrease by more than 10% until the 2050s. However, a fifth to a third of the population may be affected by a groundwater recharge increase of more than 10%, with negative impacts in the case of shallow water tables. The spatial distribution of vulnerability, even at the continental scale, differs more strongly between the two climate models than between the two emissions scenarios. Keywords: Citedy By: 214 Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics Author: P Ericksen, PK Thornton, AMO Notenbaert, L Cramer Journal: Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics ,Vol. (), 2011--Pages Abstract: This study was coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) to identify areas that are food insecure and vulnerable to the impacts of future climate change, across the priority regions for the CGIAR centres. The research was undertaken by a team of scientists from the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). The study relied on maps: first, of variables that indicate the different aspects of food security (availability, access and utilization), and second, of thresholds of climate change exposure important for agricultural systems. Vulnerability was assessed using a domain approach based upon the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. Nine domains were identified; for each domain, areas of the tropics were classified by high or low exposure, high or low sensitivity, and high or low coping capacity. Keywords: Citedy By: 103 Climate change and food security Author: P Martens, RS Kovats, S Nijhof, P De Vries Journal: Environmental Change,Vol. (), 1999--Pages Abstract: Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems.Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change Keywords: Citedy By: 416 Late Cenozoic increase in accumulation rates of terrestrial sediment: How might climate change have affected erosion rates? Author: P Molnar - Annu. Rev. Journal: Earth Planet. Sci., 2004,Vol. (32), 2004--Pages Abstract: Accumulation rates of terrestrial sediment have increased in the past few million years both on and adjacent to continents, although not everywhere. Apparently, erosion has increased in elevated terrain regardless of when last tectonically active or what the present-day climate. In many regions, sediment coarsened abruptly in late Pliocene time. Sparser data suggest increased sedimentation rates at ~15 Ma, approximately when oxygen isotopes in benthic foraminifera imply high-latitude cooling. If climate change effected accelerated erosion, understanding how it did so remains the challenge. Some obvious candidates, such as lowered sea level leading to erosion of continental shelves or increased glaciation, account for increased sedimentation in some, but not all, areas. Perhaps stable climates that varied slowly allowed geomorphic processes to maintain a state of equilibrium with little erosion until ~3–4 Ma, when large oscillations in climate with periods of 20,000–40,000 years developed and denied the landscape the chance to reach equilibrium. Keywords: uplift of mountain ranges, processes of erosion, orbital controls of climatic change, paleoclimate, glacial erosion Citedy By: 302 Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation Author: P.K. Joshib, J.S.I. Ingramc, R.K. Gupta,P.K. Aggarwalad Journal: Environmental Science & Policy,Vol.7 (6), 2004--Pages Abstract: The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice–wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions. Keywords: Indo-Gangetic plain; GEC; Food systems; Adaptation Citedy By: 203 Holocene climate variability Author: PA Mayewski, EE Rohling, JC Stager, W Karlén Journal: Quaternary Research ,Vol.62 (3), 2004--Pages Abstract: Although the dramatic climate disruptions of the last glacial period have received considerable attention, relatively little has been directed toward climate variability in the Holocene (11,500 cal yr B.P. to the present). Examination of ~50 globally distributed paleoclimate records reveals as many as six periods of significant rapid climate change during the time periods 9000–8000, 6000–5000, 4200–3800, 3500–2500, 1200–1000, and 600–150 cal yr B.P. Most of the climate change events in these globally distributed records are characterized by polar cooling, tropical aridity, and major atmospheric circulation changes, although in the most recent interval (600–150 cal yr B.P.), polar cooling was accompanied by increased moisture in some parts of the tropics. Several intervals coincide with major disruptions of civilization, illustrating the human significance of Holocene climate variability. Keywords: Climate Rapid climate change Holocene Solar variability Citedy By: 1604 Vulnerability and Climate Change: An Analysis of the Eastern Coastal Districts of India Author: Patnaik, Unmesh and Narayanan, K. Journal: Vulnerability and Climate Change: An Analysis of the Eastern Coastal Districts of India ,Vol. (), 2009--Pages Abstract: This paper attempts to construct a picture of socioeconomic context of vulnerability by focusing on indicators that measure both the state of development of the region as well as its capacity to progress further. The first aspect is reflected through agricultural and industrial development, while the second through infrastructure and others. In this study, the climate change impacts are examined from agriculture, infrastructure and demographic characteristics. The analysis is carried out at the district level. Vulnerability of a particular district is measured by the frequency of occurrence of extreme events, in this case the occurrence of cyclones, storms and depressions. From the data on the frequency of occurrence of extreme events it is clear that the districts in the states of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh are highly vulnerable than the other states. The study aims to build a vulnerability index and rank the various coastal districts of these highly vulnerable states in terms of their performance on the index. The index tries to capture a comprehensive scale of vulnerability by including many indicators that serve as proxies. The analysis carried out in this paper points out that the clusters of districts of poor infrastructure and demographic development are also the regions of maximum vulnerability. Some districts exhibit very low rate of growth in infrastructure, alongside a high growth rate of population. Also these districts show a higher density of population. Hence any occurrence of extreme events is likely to be more catastrophic in nature for the people living in these districts. People living in absolute poverty [those who cannot afford US2 a day] will not be able to cope up with the challenges posed by climate change. Therefore, the analysis carried out in this paper suggests that climate change policies have to be integrated with sustainable development strategies in general, and poverty alleviation measures, in particular.
Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate Change, IPCC, India
Citedy By: 62
Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response
Author: Paul J.Smith
Journal: Orbis ,Vol.51 (4), 2007--Pages
Abstract: The displacement of thousands of U.S. Gulf Coast residents in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is emblematic of a human migration challenge that will likely become more severe in the years and decades ahead. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change will manifest in dramatic ways-extreme weather events, droughts, heat waves, increased cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) activity, sea level rise, etc.-and some of these effects may induce large scale human migration, both within and among countries. The increasing trend of environmental migrants is clashing with widespread anti-immigrant sentiment in both developed and developing countries around the world. Some countries are describing migration-and particularly unauthorized international migration-as a “security threat” and are turning to military forces to deter or manage the human flows, a trend that is likely to grow.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 92
Business and climate change risk: a regional time series analysis
Author: Peter Romilly,
Journal: Journal of International Business Studies,Vol.38 (3), 2007--Pages
Abstract: International business activity has to adapt to a number of new challenges, including higher temperatures and flood risks. The adaptation process will depend partly on the development of new forms of risk analysis for decision-making. This paper identifies statistically significant differences in regional temperature risk profiles, and develops climate change risk rankings for 11 regions of the globe. The methodology is based on a univariate time series analysis of regional mean temperatures, and takes into account the extent to which extreme temperature events cluster together, an important factor in weather-related risk analysis. The implications of the empirical results are discussed, with particular reference to the insurance and reinsurance markets.
Keywords: climate change, risk time series analysis
Citedy By: 35
Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective
Author: Petra Döll
Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.54 (3), 2002--Pages
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change does not only affect water resources but also water demand. Future water and food security will depend, among other factors, on the impact of climate change on water demand for irrigation. Using a recently developed global irrigation model, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, we present the first global analysis of the impact of climate change and climate variability on irrigation water requirements. We compute how long-term average irrigation requirements might change under the climatic conditions of the 2020s and the 2070s, as provided by two climate models, and relate these changes to the variations in irrigation requirements caused by long-term and interannual climate variability in the 20th century. Two-thirds of the global area equipped for irrigation in 1995 will possibly suffer from increased water requirements, and on up to half of the total area (depending on the measure of variability), the negative impact of climate change is more significant than that of climate variability.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 417
Climate change, hydrology, and water resources
Author: PH Gleick
Journal: Reviews of Geophysics,Vol.27 (3), 1989--Pages
Abstract: Growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases are leading to climatic changes with important implications for the hydrologic balance and water resources. These “greenhouse gases” are expected to alter the radiative balance of the atmosphere, causing increases in temperature and changes in many other climatic variables. Recent hydrological research strongly suggests that this so-called “greenhouse effect” will alter the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture, change lake levels, and affect water quality. Such changes raise the possibility of environmental and socioeconomic dislocations, and they have important implications for future water resources planning and management. This paper reviews state-of-the-art research into the implications of climatic changes for the hydrologic cycle and for water resources and discusses the implications of such changes for future water planning and management.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 290
Country stakes in climate change negotiations: two dimensions of vulnerability
Author: PIET BUYS, UWE DEICHMANN, CRAIG MEISNER, THAO TON THAT & DAVID WHEELER,
Journal: Journal Climate Policy  ,Vol.9 (3), 2009--Pages
Abstract: Future global agreements on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to include developing countries and industrialized countries that are not part of the Kyoto Protocol. An assessment using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy provides insight into countries' likely attitudes and positions with respect to international treaties regulating carbon emissions. A distinction is made between source vulnerabilities (access to fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, options for GHG sequestration, the potential size of employment and income shocks) and impact vulnerabilities (changes in agricultural productivity, weather events and sea-level rise). This differential vulnerability is used to identify clear differences that determine likely negotiating positions. This helps us to understand the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely. Countries with high impact vulnerability and low source vulnerability should be the most inclined to support greenhouse gas emissions limits. Conversely, countries with high source vulnerability and low impact vulnerability should be most resistant to such limits. Additionally, a successful transition to clean energy sources will require transition support for countries with high source vulnerability and adaptation support for countries with high impact vulnerability.
Keywords:  climate change, emission reduction, energy resources, negotiations, post-2012, vulnerability
Citedy By: 42
Climate Change and Human Health
Author: PR Epstein
Journal: New England Journal of Medicine,Vol. (), 2005--Pages
Abstract: In 1998, Hurricane Mitch dropped six feet of rain on Central America in three days. In its wake, the incidence of malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and leptospirosis soared. In 2000, rain and three cyclones inundated Mozambique for six weeks, and the incidence of malaria rose fivefold. In 2003, a summer heat wave in Europe killed tens of thousands of people, wilted crops, set forests ablaze, and melted 10 percent of the Alpine glacial mass. This summer's blistering heat wave was unprecedented with regard to intensity, duration, and geographic extent. More than 200 U.S. cities registered new record high temperatures. In Phoenix, Arizona, sustained temperatures above 100°F (38°C) for 39 consecutive days, including a week above 110°F (43°C), took a harsh toll on the homeless. Then cameHurricane Katrina, gathering steam from the heated Gulf of Mexico and causing devastation in coastal communities.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 267
Climate change and waterborne and vector-borne disease
Author: PR Hunter
Journal: Journal of applied microbiology,Vol.94 (1), 2003--Pages
Abstract: This paper considers the potential impact on human health from waterborne and vector-borne infections. It concentrates on the impact of two possible changes to climate; increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, with associated flooding and increased temperature. Flooding is associated with increased risk of infection in developing nations but not in the West unless water sources are compromised. There have been numerous reported of outbreaks that followed flooding that led to contamination of underground sources of drinking water. Heavy rainfall also leads to deterioration in the quality of surface waters that could adversely affect the health of those engaged in recreational water contact. It is also concluded that there may be an increase in the number of cyanobacterial blooms because of a combination of increased nutrient concentrations and water temperature. It is considered unlikely that climate change will lead to an increase in disease linked to mains drinking water, although private supplies would be at risk from increased heavy rainfall events. Although increased temperature could lead to climatic conditions favourable to increases in certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, the infrastructure in the UK would prevent the indigenous spread of malaria.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 389
Adaptation to climate change of wheat growing in South Australia: Analysis of management and breeding strategies
Author: Q Luo, W Bellotti, M Williams, E Wang
Journal: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment ,Vol.129 (1-3), 2009--Pages
Abstract: Evaluation of adaptive management options is very crucial for successfully dealing with negative climate change impacts. Research objectives of this study were (1) to determine the proper N application rate for current practice, (2) to select a range of synthetic wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars to expand the existing wheat cultivar pool for adaptation purpose, (3) to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield and (4) to evaluate the effectiveness of three common management options such as early sowing, changing N application rate and use of different wheat cultivars derived in (2) and given in the APSIM-Wheat model package in dealing with the projected negative impacts for Keith, South Australia. The APSIM-Wheat model was used to achieve these objectives. It was found that 75 kg ha-1 N application at sowing for current situation is appropriate for the study location. This provided a non-limiting N supply condition for climate change impact and adaptation evaluation. Negative impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield were projected under both high (-15%) and low (-10%) plant available water capacity conditions. Neither changes in N application level nor in wheat cultivar alone nor their synergistic effects could offset the negative climate change impact. It was found that early sowing is an effective adaptation strategy when initial soil water was reset at 25 mm at sowing but this may be hard to realise especially since a drier environment is projected.
Keywords:  Wheat grain yield Climate change Impact assessment Adaptation evaluation Early sowing Cultivars choices N application level
Citedy By: 83
Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Risk: A Case Study of Climate Change and Flooding in Bangladesh
Author: R Brouwer, S Akter, L Brander, E Haque -
Journal: Risk analysis, ,Vol.27 (2), 2007--Pages
Keywords:
Citedy By: 314
Climate Change and Asia’s Coastal Urban Cities
Author: R Fuchs, M Conran, E Louis
Journal: Environment and Urbanization Asia,Vol.2 (1), 2011--Pages
Abstract: The scientific literature has documented the growing risks of flooding posed for Asia’s coastal cities by the combination of climate change, as reflected in sea level rise and intensified storms and storm surges, and ongoing urban growth in low-lying coastal zones. These issues were already elaborated in the 2007 IPCC (IPCC, 2007) reports but recent studies indicate that climate change, sea level rise and the sinking of the deltas on which most Asian mega urban regions have arisen, are all occurring at much faster rates than earlier projected and therefore pose even greater risks than previously indicated. Global warming appears to be accelerating and may increase to 4° C or more by the end of this century, twice the earlier IPCC projections. The sea level is now expected to rise by one meter or more by 2100; two or three times the earlier projections. The recent typhoons and rains striking Southeast Asia have been the most intense in decades as would be expected as a result of global warming. At the same time, Asia’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 140,000 per day, with much of this growth occurring in low-lying coastal regions and on deltas characterized by land subsidence that is further contributing to flooding risks. While these risks and vulnerabilities have been increasingly detailed in the scientific literature, recognition and effective responses on the part of the urban planning and policy community have been slow to develop. Barriers to adaptation, policy formation and response are reviewed and possible steps forward are outlined
Keywords:
Citedy By: 34
Social and economic impacts of climate change on the urban environment
Author: R Gasper, A Blohm, M Ruth
Journal: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability ,Vol.3 (3), 2011--Pages
Abstract: Urban areas have unique characteristics that render their residents and assets particularly vulnerable to climate change. Many large urban centers are located along coasts or in low-lying areas around the mouths of major rivers, placing economic capital and human populations at risk of climate-related hazards including sea level rise and flooding from severe precipitation. Recent literature illustrates the economic and social challenges facing cities around the world as a result of climate change including energy shortages, damaged infrastructure, increasing losses to industry, heat-related mortality and illness, and scarcity of food and water. These challenges are interrelated. Economic losses make it difficult for residents to maintain their livelihoods and can therefore exacerbate social issues including poverty and hunger. At the same time, some demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of cities can make them especially vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper reviews current literature on these issues and identifies future research needed to more fully understand climate change in the urban context.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 73
Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain
Author: R Guo, Z Lin, X Mo, C Yang
Journal: Agricultural Water Management ,Vol.97 (8), 2010--Pages
Abstract: Based on future climate change projections offered by IPCC, the responses of yields and water use efficiencies of wheat and maize to climate change scenarios are explored over the North China Plain. The climate change projections of 21st century under A2A, B2A and A1B are from HadCM3 global climate model. A climate generator (CLIGEN) is applied to generate daily weather data of selected stations and then the data is used to drive CERES-Wheat and Maize models. The impacts of increased temperature and CO2 on wheat and maize yields are inconsistent. Under the same scenario, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. As a more probable scenario, climate change under B2A is moderate relative to A2A and A1B. Under B2A in 2090s, average wheat yield and maize yield will respectively increase 9.8% and 3.2% without CO2 fertilization in this region. High temperature not only affects crop yields, but also has positive effect on water use efficiencies, mainly ascribing to the evapotranspiration intensification. There is a positive effect of CO2 enrichment on yield and water use efficiency. If atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches nearly 600 ppm, wheat and maize yields will increase 38% and 12% and water use efficiencies will improve 40% and 25% respectively, in comparison to those without CO2 fertilization. However, the uncertainty of crop yield is considerable under future climate change scenarios and whether the CO2 fertilization may be realized is still needed further research.
Keywords:  Climate generator model (CLIGEN) Crop yield Climate change scenario CERES model
Citedy By: 135
Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a ‘no-regrets’ approach
Author: R Heltberg, PB Siegel, SL Jorgensen
Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.19 (1), 2009--Pages
Abstract: This paper presents and applies a conceptual framework to address human vulnerability to climate change. Drawing upon social risk management and asset-based approaches, the conceptual framework provides a unifying lens to examine links between risks, adaptation, and vulnerability. The result is an integrated approach to increase the capacity of society to manage climate risks with a view to reduce the vulnerability of households and maintain or increase the opportunities for sustainable development. We identify ‘no-regrets’ adaptation interventions, meaning actions that generate net social benefits under all future scenarios of climate change and impacts. We also make the case for greater support for community-based adaptation and social protection and propose a research agenda.
Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Social risk management Vulnerability
Citedy By: 418
Chapter 3 Regional Vulnerability of Climate Change Impacts on Asian Rice Production and Scope for Adaptation
Author: R Wassmann, SVK Jagadish, K Sumfleth, H Pathak
Journal: Advances in Agronomy,Vol.102 (), 2009--Pages
Abstract: Rice is the principle staple crop of Asia and any deterioration of rice production systems through climate change would seriously impair food security in this continent. This review assesses spatial and temporal vulnerabilities of different rice production systems to climate change impacts in Asia. Initially, the review discusses the risks of increasing heat stress and maps the regions where current temperatures are already approaching critical levels during the susceptible stages of the rice plant, namely Pakistan/north India (Oct.), south India (April, Aug.), east India/Bangladesh (March-June), Myanmar/Thailand/Laos/Cambodia (March-June), Vietnam (April/Aug.), Philippines (April/June), Indonesia (Aug.) and China (July/Aug.). Possible adaptation options for heat stress are derived from regions where the rice crop is already exposed to very high temperatures including Iran and Australia. Drought stress is also expected to aggravate through climate change; a map superimposing the distribution of rainfed rice and precipitation anomalies in Asia highlights especially vulnerable areas in east India/Bangladesh and Myanmar/Thailand.Then, the review gives emphasis to two rice growing environments that have outstanding importance for food supply in Asia and, at the same time, are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts. The mega-deltas in Vietnam, Myanmar and Bangladesh are the backbone of the rice economy in the respective country and will experience specific climate change impacts due to sea level rise. Significant improvements of the rice production systems, that is, higher resilience to flooding and salinity, are crucial for maintaining or even increasing yield levels in these very productive deltaic regions. The other ‘hotspot’ with especially high climate change risks in Asia is the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) which will be affected by the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The dominant land use type in the IGP is rice-wheat rotation, and we discuss specific vulnerabilities and possible adaptation options in the different sub-regions of the IGP. We conclude that geo-spatial vulnerability assessments may become crucial for planning targeted adaptation programs, but that policy frameworks are needed for their implementation.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 207
South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4
Author: R. H. Kripalani,J. H. Oh,A. Kulkarni,S. S. Sabade,H. S. Chaudhari,
Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.90 (3-4), 2007--Pages
Abstract: South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the coupled climate models assessed as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. Out of the 22 models examined, 19 are able to capture the maximum rainfall during the summer monsoon period (June through September) with varying amplitude. While two models are unable to reproduce the annual cycle well, one model is unable to simulate the summer monsoon season. The simulated inter-annual variability from the 19 models is examined with respect to the mean precipitation, coefficient of variation, long-term trends and the biennial tendency. The model simulated mean precipitation varies from 500?mm to 900?mm and coefficient of variation from 3 to 13%. While seven models exhibit long-term trends, eight are able to simulate the biennial nature of the monsoon rainfall. Six models, which generate the most realistic 20th century monsoon climate over south Asia, are selected to examine future projections under the doubling CO2 scenario. Projections reveal a significant increase in mean monsoon precipitation of 8% and a possible extension of the monsoon period based on the multi-model ensemble technique. Extreme excess and deficient monsoons are projected to intensify. The projected increase in precipitation could be attributed to the projected intensification of the heat low over northwest India, the trough of low pressure over the Indo-Gangetic plains, and the land–ocean pressure gradient during the establishment phase of the monsoon. The intensification of these pressure systems could be attributed to the decline in winter/spring snowfall. Furthermore, a decrease of winter snowfall over western Eurasia is also projected along with an increase of winter snowfall over Siberia/eastern Eurasia. This projected dipole snow configuration during winter could imply changes in mid-latitude circulation conducive to subsequent summer monsoon precipitation activity. An increase in precipitable water of 12–16% is projected over major parts of India. A maximum increase of about 20–24% is found over the Arabian Peninsula, adjoining regions of Pakistan, northwest India and Nepal. Although the projected summer monsoon circulation appears to weaken, the projected anomalous flow over the Bay of Bengal (Arabian Sea) will support oceanic moisture convergence towards the southern parts of India and Sri Lanka (northwest India and adjoining regions). The ENSO-Monsoon relationship is also projected to weaken.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 243
Bunyaviruses and climate change
Author: R. M. Elliott,
Journal: Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 2009,Vol.15 (6), 2009--Pages
Abstract: It is generally accepted that the planet is undergoing climatic changes, and ‘climate change’ has become the scapegoat for many catastrophes, including infectious disease outbreaks, as acknowledged by Randolph and Ergonul, who state ‘Climate change is the current ubiquitous explanation for increased incidence of infections of many sorts’ (Future Virology 2008; 3: 303–306). However, as these authors argue, this is a highly simplistic view and, indeed, there is a complex network of factors that are responsible for disease emergence and re-emergence. In this short review, the role that climate change could play in the emergence of bunyavirus disease is considered, using a few selected examples.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 48
Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?
Author: R. S. Kovats, D. H. Campbell-Lendrum, A. J. McMichel, A. Woodward, J. St H. Cox
Journal: Society of the Royal, 2001,Vol. (), 2001--Pages
Abstract: The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra–annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector–borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick–borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long–term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 351
Cretaceous and Tertiary climate change and the past distribution of megathermal rainforests
Author: R. J. Morley,
Journal: Tropical rainforest responses to climatic change,Vol. (), 2011--Pages
Abstract: The history of megathermal (currently ‘‘tropical’’) rainforests over the last 30 kyr is now becoming relatively well-understood, as demonstrated by the many contributions in this volume. However, our perception of their longer-term history remains highly fragmentary. There is a real need for a better understanding of rainforest history on an evolutionary time scale, not only to have a better idea of the biological, geological, and climatic factors which have led to the development of the most diverse ecosystem ever to have developed on planet Earth, but also since the implications of rainforest history on an evolutionary time scale are inextricably linked to a plethora of other issues currently receiving wide attention. Determining the place and time of origin and/or radiation of angiosperms (which overwhelmingly dominate present day megathermal rainforests), establishing patterns of global climate change, clarifying the nature of global temperature gradients through time, understanding the successive switching from greenhouse to icehouse climates, global warming, patterns of dispersal of megathermal plants and animals, higher rank (ordinal) taxonomy and the nature of controls on global diversity gradients are but some issues which are being clarified with the better understanding of the long-term history of megathermal rainforests.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 117
Inside UN Climate Change Negotiations: The Copenhagen Conference
Journal: Review of policy research,,Vol.27 (6), 2010--Pages
Abstract: UN negotiations on climate change entail a fundamental transformation of the global economy and constitute the single most important process in world politics. This is an account of the 2009 Copenhagen summit from the perspective of a government delegate. The article offers a guide to global climate negotiations, tells the story of Copenhagen from behind closed doors, and assesses the current state of global climate governance. It outlines key policy issues under negotiation, the positions and policy preferences of key countries and coalitions, the outcomes of Copenhagen, and achievements and failures in climate negotiations to date. The Copenhagen Accord is a weak agreement designed to mask the political failure of the international community to create a global climate treaty. However, climate policy around the world is making considerable progress. While the UN negotiations process is deadlocked, multilevel climate governance is thriving.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 126
Inside UN Climate Change Negotiations: The Copenhagen Conference
Journal: Review of policy research,,Vol.27 (6), 2010--Pages
Abstract: UN negotiations on climate change entail a fundamental transformation of the global economy and constitute the single most important process in world politics. This is an account of the 2009 Copenhagen summit from the perspective of a government delegate. The article offers a guide to global climate negotiations, tells the story of Copenhagen from behind closed doors, and assesses the current state of global climate governance. It outlines key policy issues under negotiation, the positions and policy preferences of key countries and coalitions, the outcomes of Copenhagen, and achievements and failures in climate negotiations to date. The Copenhagen Accord is a weak agreement designed to mask the political failure of the international community to create a global climate treaty. However, climate policy around the world is making considerable progress. While the UN negotiations process is deadlocked, multilevel climate governance is thriving.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 126
Chapter 1 Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: An Asian perspective
Author: Rajib Shaw, , Juan M. Pulhin, , Joy Jacqueline Pereira,
Journal: Book Series: Community, Environment and Disaster Risk Management ,Vol.5 (), 2010--Pages
Abstract: Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to development. Intergovernmental Committee in response to Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), with majority agreement, has pointed out that climate change is caused by human activities. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also pointed out that these serious impacts by climate change will directly affect the poorer and more vulnerable communities and nations. According to the Human Development Report 2007–2008 by United Nation Development Program (UNDP, 2008), people in rural areas are most vulnerable to climate change, because it directly affects the resources in the ecosystem on which their lives depend. Countries with newly developed economy will be seriously hit, economically and socially, within the next few decades by natural disasters such as flood, draught, and storm, which have been increasing in number and severity. Human health is also adversely affected, which has multiplying effects in different sectors.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 30
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan
Author: Rashid Mahmood , Shaofeng Jia, and Mukand S. Babel
Journal: Water, 2016,Vol.8 (1), 2016--Pages
Abstract: Pakistan is one of the most highly water-stressed countries in the world and its water resources are greatly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. The present study investigates the possible impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Kunhar River basin, Pakistan, under A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3, a global climate model. After successful development of the hydrological modeling system (HEC-HMS) for the basin, streamflow was simulated for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099) and compared with the baseline period (1961–1990) to explore the changes in different flow indicators such as mean flow, low flow, median flow, high flow, flow duration curves, temporal shift in peaks, and temporal shifts in center-of-volume dates. From the results obtained, an overall increase in mean annual flow was projected in the basin under both A2 and B2 scenarios. However, while summer and autumn showed a noticeable increase in streamflow, spring and winter showed decreased streamflow. High and median flows were predicted to increase, but low flow was projected to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Flow duration curves showed that the probability of occurrence of flow is likely to be more in the future. It was also noted that peaks were predicted to shift from June to July in the future, and the center-of-volume date—the date at which half of the annual flow passes—will be delayed by about 9–17 days in the basin, under both A2 and B2 scenarios. On the whole, the Kunhar basin will face more floods and droughts in the future due to the projected increase in high flow and decrease in low flow and greater temporal and magnitudinal variations in peak flows. These results highlight how important it is to take cognizance of the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin and to formulate suitable policies for the proper utilization and management of these resources
Keywords: Climate change; downscaling; temperature; precipitation; hydrologic , modelling; water resources;
Citedy By: 10
Vulnerability of the Indus Delta to Climate Change in Pakistan
Author: Rasul, G.1,2, A. Mahmood2 , A. Sadiq3 , S. I. Khan4
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.8 (16), 2012--Pages
Abstract: Climate has been experiencing a rapidly changing trend embedded with the increased frequency and intensity of extreme events in Pakistan due to global warming. The Indus Delta is a vast tract of fertile land feeding a large proportion of population with food and fiber. Although it is composed of low lying areas of the Indus irrigated plain but the changes occurring in the climatic conditions of the extreme north also directly affect through water deficit or surplus. The Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush region, which hosts world’s third largest ice mass after the poles, has warmed up more than 1.5 °C almost double than remaining parts of Pakistan (0.76 °C) during last three decades. Increased frequency of torrential rains, prolonged heat waves, frequent tropical cyclones, recurring flooding and persistent drought are the phenomenal changes experienced this deltaic region. Rapid melting of glaciers in the north is not only contributing to floods downstream rather it results into sea level rise. Resultantly, intrusion of saline sea water into the fertile land has been destroying the fertile agricultural land. Wind is a great natural resource possessing huge socio-economic benefits if augmented but increased intensity of storm surges and invasion of tropical cyclones are the great threats to infrastructure. Erratic behavior of monsoon precipitation has resulted in degradation of rangeland and further deterioration of the already degraded cultivated land areas such as those suffering from water erosion, wind erosion, water-logging, salinity etc. Future climate projections indicate that at least 5 °C rise in temperature over the Indus Delta is expected by the end of 21st century. Due to this increase in temperature, domestic, animal and crop water requirements will rise 1.5 times over the present levels. Over the time population increased but water reservoirs were not developed at the same pace therefore Pakistan entered in the list of water deficit countries. Water availability will further decrease reducing the per capita share. Precipitation pattern is going to be highly variable. Poverty, lack of resources and low adaptive capacity of the local population of the Indus Delta to climate change has been exaggerating the vulnerabilities and posing challenges to sustainable food production
Keywords:
Citedy By: 351
Designing urban parks that ameliorate the effects of climate change
Author: RD Brown, J Vanos, N Kenny, S Lenzholzer
Journal: Landscape and Urban Planning ,Vol.138 (), 2015--Pages
Abstract: Many inhabitants of cities throughout the world suffer from health problems and discomfort that are caused by overheating of urban areas, and there is compelling evidence that these problems will be exacerbated by global climate change. Most cities are not designed to ameliorate these effects although it is well-known that this is possible, especially through evidence-based climate-responsive design of urban open spaces. Urban parks and green spaces have the potential to provide thermally comfortable environments and help reduce vulnerability to heat stress. However, in order for them to provide this function, parks must be designed within the context of the prevailing climate and predicted future climates. To analyze the effects of elements that alter microclimate in parks, we used human energy budget simulations. We modelled the outdoor human energy budget in a range of warm to hot climate zones and interpreted the results in terms of thermal comfort and health vulnerability. Reduction of solar radiant input with trees had the greatest effect in all test cities. Reduction in air temperature was the second-most important component, and in some climates was nearly as important as incorporating shade. We then conducted similar modelling using predicted climates for the middle of the century, emphasizing the importance of city-level efforts for park design to assist in minimizing future climate-related urban health risks. These simulations suggested that heat waves in many climates will produce outdoor environments where people will be in extreme danger of heat stress, but that appropriately designed parks can reduce the threat.
Keywords: Landscape architecture Urban design Microclimate Energy budget Hot climate
Citedy By: 42
Ground water and climate change
Author: RG Taylor, B Scanlon, P Döll, M Rodell
Journal: Natural Climate Change,Vol. (3-4), 2013--Pages
Abstract: As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate
Keywords:
Citedy By: 369
HOW MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLIMATE CHANGE DO? RECENT ESTIMATES
Author: Richard S.J. Tola,*, Samuel Fankhauserb , Richard G. Richelsc and Joel B. Smithd
Journal: HENLEY ON THAMES,Vol. (), 2000--Pages
Abstract: Two reasons to be concerned about climate change are its unjust distributional impact and its negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare. Although our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete and uncertain, economic valuation is difficult and controversial, and the effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative, we find that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people. A modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor countries in hot climates, but may have a net positive effect on rich countries in temperate climates. If one counts dollars, the world aggregate may be positive. If one counts people, the world aggregate is probably negative. Negative impacts would become more negative, and positive impacts would turn negative for more substantial warming. The marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical positions, but unlikely to be larger that 50/tC. Keywords: climate change, impacts, valuation, marginal cost Citedy By: 125 Evolutionary genetics of mangroves: continental drift to recent climate change Author: Richard S. Dodd,Zara Afzal Rafii, Journal: Trees, 2002,Vol.16 (2-3), 2002--Pages Abstract: Recent advances in our knowledge of the genetic architecture of mangrove species are reviewed and the consequences of this genetic architecture for species response to environmental change are inferred. The origins of mangrove taxa have been discussed many times, particularly in the context of centers of origin and continental drift. While global patterns of mangrove species diversity have been interpreted in the context of tectonic events and opening and closing of seawater passages, species evolution on a finer scale depends on more recent processes of population extinction and advances in response to spatio-temporal climatic and environmental flux. Understanding the likely effects of global climate change on mangrove distributions requires a focus on these more recent intraspecific evolutionary processes. Many mangrove taxa have wide geographic ranges that have been attributed to efficient propagule dispersal. Such gene flow should provide a genetic cohesiveness among populations. However, as with many wide-ranging marine organisms, we are finding important population genetic structure in widespread mangrove species, suggesting that gene flow is less effective than previously thought. Are these widespread taxa more recent and undergoing speciation? Spatial patterns in genetically adaptive traits indicate that some populations may survive more successfully under changing environmental conditions. However, is the present-day genetic architecture best poised to respond to predictions of climate change? These questions are addressed in the light of our increasing knowledge of genetic diversity in mangrove species. Keywords: Citedy By: 43 Adapting to flood risk under climate change Author: RL Wilby, R Keenan Journal: Progress in Physical Geography,Vol.36 (3), 2012--Pages Abstract: Flooding is the most common natural hazard and third most damaging globally after storms and earthquakes. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase flood risk through more frequent heavy precipitation, increased catchment wetness and sea level rise. This paper reviews steps being taken by actors at international, national, regional and community levels to adapt to flood risk from tidal, fluvial, surface and groundwater sources. We refer to existing inventories, national and sectoral adaptation plans, flood inquiries, building and planning codes, city plans, research literature and international policy reviews. We distinguish between the enablingenvironment for adaptation and specific implementing measures to manage flood risk. Enabling includes routine monitoring, flood forecasting, data exchange, institutional reform, bridging organizations, contingency planning for disasters, insurance and legal incentives to reduce vulnerability. All such activities are ‘low regret’ in that they yield benefits regardless of the climate scenario but are not cost-free. Implementing includes climate safety factors for new build, upgrading resistance and resilience of existing infrastructure, modifying operating rules, development control, flood forecasting, temporary and permanent retreat from hazardous areas, periodic review and adaptive management. We identify evidence of both types of adaptation following the catastrophic 2010/11 flooding in Victoria, Australia. However, significant challenges remain for managing transboundary flood risk (at all scales), protecting existing property at risk from flooding, and ensuring equitable outcomes in terms of risk reduction for all. Adaptive management also raises questions about the wider preparedness of society to systematically monitor and respond to evolving flood risks and vulnerabilities. Keywords: Citedy By: 149 Dire forecast: A theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime Author: Robert Agnew Journal: Theoretical Criminology,Vol.16 (1), 2012--Pages Abstract: After providing an overview of climate change and its effects, this article draws on the leading crime theories to discuss the potential impact of climate change on crime. It is argued that climate change will increase strain, reduce social control, weaken social support, foster beliefs favorable to crime, contribute to traits conducive to crime, increase certain opportunities for crime, and create social conflict. An overall model of climate change and crime is then presented, along with suggestions for research. Even though neglected by criminologists, there is good reason to believe that climate change will become one of the major forces driving crime as the century progresses. Keywords: Citedy By: 82 Global climate change and the emergence/re-emergence of infectious diseases Author: Roland Zell Journal: International Journal of Medical Microbiology Supplements,Vol.293 (37), 2004--Pages Abstract: Variation in the incidence of vector-borne diseases is associated with extreme weather events and annual changes in weather conditions. Moreover, it is assumed that global warming might lead to an increase of infectious disease outbreaks. While a number of reports link disease outbreaks to single weather events, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other largescale climate fluctuations, no report unequivocally associates vector-borne discases with increased temperature and the environmental changes expected to accompany it. The complexity of not yet fully understood pathogen transmission dynamics with numerous variables might be an explanation of the problems in assessing the risk factors. Keywords: Climate, global warmingchange, infectious disease, emergent disease, human health, pathogen transmission Citedy By: 119 Climate Change-related Health Impacts in the Hindu Kush–Himalayas Author: Rosalie Woodruff,Alexander von Hildebrand,Carlos Corvalan,Kristie L. Ebi, Journal: EcoHealth,Vol.4 (3), 2007--Pages Abstract: Our goal was to identify the climate change-related health risks and vulnerable populations specific to the mountainous regions of the Hindu Kush–Himalayas. We reviewed published information of the likely health consequences of climate change in mountain regions, especially the findings of a workshop for countries in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region, organized by the World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, and United Nations Development Programme. The main climate-related risks in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region include the expansion of vector-borne diseases as pathogens take advantage of new habitats in altitudes that were formerly unsuitable. Diarrheal diseases could become more prevalent with changes in freshwater quality and availability. More extreme rainfall events are likely to increase the number of floods and landslides with consequent death and injuries. A unique risk is sudden floods from high glacier lakes, which cause substantial destruction and loss of life. Because glaciers are the main source of freshwater for upland regions and downstream countries, the long-term reduction in annual glacier snowmelt is expected to heighten existing water insecurity in these areas. Climate change also is bringing some benefits to mountain populations, including milder winters and longer growing seasons. Populations in mountain regions have unique combinations of vulnerabilities to climate change. The extent of the health impacts experienced will depend on the effectiveness of public health efforts to identify and implement low-cost preparedness and response measures, and on the speed at which emissions of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced. Keywords: climate change Hindu Kush–Himalayas human health mountains Citedy By: 59 How will climate change affect mycotoxins in food? Author: RRM Paterson, N Lima Journal: Food Research International,Vol.43 (7), 2010--Pages Abstract: This invited review and opinion piece, assesses the impact of climate change on mycotoxins in food: only one paper and an abstract referred directly from a substantial literature search and then only in relation to Europe. Climate change is an accepted probability by most scientists. Favourable temperature and water activity are crucial for mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin production. Fungal diseases of crops provide relevant information for pre-harvest mycotoxin contamination. However, the mycotoxin issue also involves post-harvest scenarios. There are no data on how mycotoxins affect competing organisms in crop ecosystems. In general, if the temperature increases in cool or temperate climates, the relevant countries may become more liable to aflatoxins. Tropical countries may become too inhospitable for conventional fungal growth and mycotoxin production. Could this lead to the extinction of thermotolerant Aspergillus flavus? Currently cold regions may become liable to temperate problems concerning ochratoxin A, patulin and Fusarium toxins (e.g. deoxynivalenol). Regions which can afford to control the environment of storage facilities may be able to avoid post-harvest problems but at high additional cost. There appears to be a lack of awareness of the issue in some non-European countries. The era will provide numerous challenges for mycotoxicologists. Keywords: Mycotoxins Climate change Fungi Aflatoxins Deoxynivalenol Ochratoxin A Temperature Water activity Citedy By: 283 Further mycotoxin effects from climate change Author: RRM Paterson, N Lima Journal: Food Research International ,Vol.44 (9), 2011--Pages Abstract: Climate change will affect mycotoxins in food. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report is reinterpreted herein to account for what may occur with mycotoxins. Warmer weather, heat waves, greater precipitation and drought will have various impacts, depending on which regions of the world and mycotoxin systems are considered. The humidity issues are more complex as some areas will experience drought and others greater precipitation: in vivo data on the effects of moisture on mycotoxins in crops are more ambiguous than those for temperature. In vitro data on fungal growth and mycotoxin production may not relate directly to the situation in the field or post harvest, but are useful for base-line assumptions. The effects of climate in various regions of the world, i.e. Africa, Europe, Asia, Latin America and North America are considered in terms of mycotoxin contamination. Crops introduced to exploit altered climate may be subject to fewer mycotoxin producing fungi (the “Parasites Lost” phenomenon). Increased mycotoxins and UV radiation may cause fungi to mutate on crops and produce different mycotoxins. Whereas there is relevant information on aflatoxins, deoxynivalenol, and ochratoxin A, more mycotoxins require to be considered: Data on patulin are missing. The current paper considers uniquely ergot alkaloids. Amelioration strategies are provided. There is considerable urgency in the need to address these issues. Keywords: Aspergillus flavus Fusarium graminearum Climate change Aflatoxins Ochratoxin A Deoxynivalenol Africa North America Citedy By: 95 Estimating global impacts from climate change Author: S Hitz, J Smith - Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.14 (3), 2004--Pages Abstract: We surveyed the literature to assess the state of knowledge with regard to the (presumed) benefits or avoided damages of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to progressively lower levels. The survey included only published studies addressing global impacts of climate change; studies that only addressed regional impacts were not included. The metric we used for change in climate is increase in global mean temperature (GMT). The focus of the analysis centred on determining the general shape of the damage curve, expressed as a function of GMT. Studies in sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, human health, energy, terrestrial ecosystems productivity, forestry, biodiversity, and marine ecosystems productivity were examined. In addition, we analysed several studies that aggregate results across sectors. Results are presented using metrics as reported in the surveyed studies and thus are not aggregated. We found that the relationships between GMT and impacts are not consistent across sectors. Some of the sectors exhibit increasing adverse impacts with increasing GMT, in particular coastal resources, biodiversity, and possibly marine ecosystem productivity. Some sectors are characterised by a parabolic relationship between temperature and impacts (benefits at lower GMT increases, damages at higher GMT increases), in particular, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and possibly forestry. The relationship between global impacts and increase in GMT for water, health, energy, and aggregate impacts appears to be uncertain. One consistent pattern is that beyond an approximate 3–4°C increase in GMT, all of the studies we examined, with the possible exception of forestry, show increasing adverse impacts. Thus, in total, it appears likely that there are increasing adverse impacts at higher increases in GMT. We were unable to determine the relationship between total impacts and climate change up to a 3–4°C increase in GMT. There are important uncertainties in the studies we surveyed that prevent us from a precise identification of 3–4°C as the critical temperature transition range, beyond which damages are adverse and increasing. We are confident in general however, that beyond several degrees of GMT, damages tend to be adverse and increasing. We conclude by suggesting some priorities for future research that, if undertaken, would further our understanding of how impacts are apt to vary with increases in GMT. Keywords: Global impacts of climate change Agriculture Forestry Water Ecosystems, Biodiversity Human health impacts of climate change Citedy By: 258 Framing climate change adaptation learning and action: the case of Lahore, Pakistan Author: S Janjua, I Thomas, D McEvoy Journal: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ,Vol.2 (), 2009--Pages Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and critically examine a framing of key characteristics for climate change adaptation learning and action in the context of urban Pakistani local government. Design/methodology/approach – The research employed a combination of approaches; predominantly literature review and interview methodologies. Recognising the need to understand climate change adaptation as an iterative learning process, the literature review concentrated on organisational and policy learning, with special consideration given to those characteristics most pertinent to urban governance in the Pakistani context. This analysis was then furthered through primary data collated through a series of interviews, with the City District Government of Lahore as the chosen case study for this piece of research. Initial scoping interviews were followed up by a series of in-depth, semi-structured, interviews with local government officials, an assessment process used to examine conceptual evidence and findings in the Pakistani urban context. A total of 21 Pakistani professionals, working in a variety of roles for local government, were subject to the interview process. Findings – From a critical analysis of conceptual and real world evidence, the authors identified six discrete characteristics that could be used to frame the context of climate change adaptation learning and action in the Pakistani urban local government context. These have been categorised as: leadership for adaptation, vision for adaptation, culture for adaptation, good governance for adaptation, innovation and creativity for adaptation and resources for adaptation. Originality/value – The value of this paper is several-fold: it applies a learning perspective to the climate change adaptation debate, identifies a framing of key characteristics for climate change adaptation learning and action, and uses an actor-based approach to examine some of the key conceptual ideas in the Pakistani urban context. Keywords: Pakistan, Urban regions, Local government, Global warming, Learning Citedy By: 7 Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach Author: S Tripathi, VV Srinivas, RS Nanjundiah Journal: Journal of Hydrology,Vol.330 (3-4), 2006--Pages Abstract: The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies. Keywords: Precipitation, Downscaling, Climate change General circulation model (GCM),Support vector machine, Neural network, Hydroclimatology, India Citedy By: 322 Mutagenesis in crop improvement under the climate change Author: S. MOHAN JAIN Journal: Romanian Biotechnological Letters,Vol.15 (2), 2010--Pages Abstract: The purpose of mutation induction is to enhance mutation rate in a short duration in developing new plant varieties. The occurrence of spontaneous mutation frequency rate is very low and difficult to use in plant breeding. Traditionally mutations are induced by physical (e.g. gamma radiation) and chemical (e.g. ethylmethane sulfonate) mutagen treatment of both seed and vegetatively propagated crops. Recently high energy ion beams have been used for mutation induction. They induce largely deletion mutants. In International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mutant database, over 3000 officially released mutant varieties have been released worldwide in cereals, ornamental plants, fruits, vegetables, and oil crops. As a result, sustainable food production has been maintained. By in vitro selection, desirable mutants with useful agronomical traits, e.g. abiotic and biotic stress tolerant can be isolated in a short period of time. The genetic fidelity of the regenerated plants is highly desirable for developing new improved plant varieties and a useful as a reliable tool for feeding the ever-growing human population, genomic function especially under climate change and limited arable land. Keywords: Physical mutagen, chemical mutagen, mutation, deletion mutants, in vitro selection, genomic Citedy By: 79 Herders’ Perceptions of and Responses to Climate Change in Northern Pakistan Author: S. Joshi W. A. Jasra, M. Ismail, R. M. Shrestha, S. L. Y,N. Wu Journal: Environmental Management,Vol.52 (3), 2013--Pages Abstract: Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders’ perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit–Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders’ perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders’ perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10–15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning. Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Herders Hindu Kush Himalayan region Perception Rangeland Citedy By: 19 Deforestation, Climate Change and Sustainable Nutrition Security: A Case Study of India Author: S. K. Sinha, M. S. Swaminathan Journal: Tropical Forests and Climate,Vol. (), 1991--Pages Abstract: Wheat and rice are the most important crops from the point of view of maintaining a sustainable nutrition security system for India, a country whose population may reach one billion by the year 2000. The implications of climate change deriving from tropical deforestation, particularly as concerns temperature and precipitation, with reference to the yield of wheat and rice in different parts of India are hence being studied carefully. Any possible positive gain arising from increased CO2, concentration is likely to be offset by the yield decline induced by higher temperature and shorter growing period Keywords: Citedy By: 117 Deforestation, Climate Change and Sustainable Nutrition Security: A Case Study of India Author: S. K. Sinha,M. S. Swaminathan, Journal: Tropical Forests and Climate,Vol. (), 1991--Pages Abstract: Wheat and rice are the most important crops from the point of view of maintaining a sustainable nutrition security system for India, a country whose population may reach one billion by the year 2000. The implications of climate change deriving from tropical deforestation, particularly as concerns temperature and precipitation, with reference to the yield of wheat and rice in different parts of India are hence being studied carefully. Any possible positive gain arising from increased CO2, concentration is likely to be offset by the yield decline induced by higher temperature and shorter growing period Keywords: Citedy By: 117 Rainfall Trends in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan Author: Salma S, M A Shah, S Rehman Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.9 (17), 2012--Pages Abstract: In this paper, the study was conducted across the country to assess the rainfall trend in different climate zones of Pakistan over the past three decades. For this purpose dataset comprising 30 years for the period 1976 to 2005 were acquired from 30 meteorological observatories from different parts of the country. The whole data was analyzed through Analysis Of Variations (ANOVA) along Dunnett T3 test. The result has shown a decreasing trend (-1.18mm/decade) all over the country, which may be attributed to the presence of drought period during 1998-2001. Stations located in different zones of the country mainly from North, North West, West and Coastal areas respectively show overall significant decreasing trend whereas plain areas and South West of the coun try have been observed with no significant trend. Adverse consequences of the rainfall have already been observed in Pakistan in the form of droughts and super floods which have badly affected human settlements, water management and agriculture sector Keywords: Citedy By: 34 The opening of Pandora’s Box: climate change impacts on soil fertility and crop nutrition in developing countries Author: SBS Clair, JP Lynch Journal: Plant and Soil,Vol.335 (1-2), 2010--Pages Abstract: Feeding the world’s growing population is a serious challenge. Food insecurity is concentrated in developing nations, where drought and low soil fertility are primary constraints to food production. Many crops in developing countries are supported by weathered soils in which nutrient deficiencies and ion toxicities are common. Many systems have declining soil fertility due to inadequate use of fertility inputs, ongoing soil degradation, and increasingly intense resource use by burgeoning populations. Climate models predict that warmer temperatures and increases in the frequency and duration of drought during the 21st century will have net negative effects on agricultural productivity. The potential effects of climate change on soil fertility and the ability of crops to acquire and utilize soil nutrients is poorly understood, but is essential for understanding the future of global agriculture. This paper explores how rising temperature, drought and more intense precipitation events projected in climate change scenarios for the 21st century might affect soil fertility and the mineral nutrition of crops in developing countries. The effects of climate change on erosion rates, soil organic carbon losses, soil moisture, root growth and function, root-microbe associations and plant phenology as they relate to mineral nutrition are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the negative impacts of climate change on soil fertility and mineral nutrition of crops will far exceed beneficial effects, which would intensify food insecurity, particularly in developing countries. Keywords: Drought Erosion Food security Precipitation Soil degradation Soil organic carbon Temperature Citedy By: 110 Dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region: impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors Author: Shahera Banu,Wenbiao Hu,Cameron Hurst,Shilu Tong, Journal: Tropical Medicine & International Health,Vol.16 (5), 2011--Pages Abstract: To review the scientific evidence about the impact of climate change and socio-environmental factors on dengue transmission, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Search of the published literature on PubMed, ISI web of Knowledge and Google Scholar. Articles were included if an association between climate or socio-environmental factors and dengue transmission was assessed in any country of the Asia-Pacific region. Results Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. The weight of the evidence indicates that global climate change is likely to affect the seasonal and geographical distribution of dengue fever (DF) in the Asia-Pacific region. However, empirical evidence linking DF to climate change is inconsistent across geographical locations and absent in some countries where dengue is endemic. Conclusion Even though climate change may play an increasing role in the transmission of DF, no clear evidence shows that such impact has already occurred. More research is needed across countries to better understand the relationship between climate change and dengue transmission. Future research should also consider and adjust for the influence of important socio-environmental factors in the assessment of the climate change-related effects on dengue transmission. Keywords: Citedy By: 84 A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING DECLINE IN FOREST COVER AREA IN DISTRICT CHAKWAL, PAKISTAN Author: SHEIKH SAEED AHMAD, ANUSHA SHERAZI AND MUHAMMAD TAHIR ALI SHAH Journal: Pak. J. Bot,Vol.42 (6), 2010--Pages Abstract: The analysis of species density and species distribution based on the analysis of land cover characteristics is an important aspect in the process of understanding forest ecology. Therefore in the present study a GIS based approach was followed to produce different scale vegetation maps for a study area in district Chakwal. The prime forest areas in district Chakwal were identified for the study by integrating the areas of land cover change derived for the change in climate in the years 2005-6 and 2009-10 by the use of GIS mapping. Results show that the minimum temperature of the district increased from 9.4o C to 9.9o C during the period of 2005-06 to 2009-10, and the maximum temperature increased from 33.8o C to 35o C. The humidity changed from 69.1% to 70.3% followed by the rainfall decrease from 872mm to 557mm. These distinguished changes in the climate caused the decline in the forest area of the region. The total forest area was found to be around 698Km2 in the year 2005-06, which declined to about 625 Km2 in 2009-10. The study further demonstrates the utility of GIS technique for the assessment of land cover change areas particularly in the regions where significant climate change conditions are occurring and forests are being lost. Keywords: Citedy By: 14 DECLINE OF CONIFER FOREST COVER IN PAKISTAN: A GIS APPROACH Author: SHEIKH SAEED AHMAD, QURAT-UL-AIN ABBASI, RUKHSANA JABEEN AND MUHAMMAD TAHIR SHAH Journal: Pak. J. Bot.,Vol.44 (2), 2012--Pages Abstract: Deforestation is one of the obstinate environmental problems globally. Pakistan, being a developing nation also encompasses crisis of depletion of forest reserves. The rising climate change consequences remain the primary culprit behind this phenomenon. The present study intends to focus attention on one of the threatened vegetation types, the Conifer forests and their consequent reduction in area during the last two decades. GIS techniques have been employed to analyze the change detection in various regions and provinces of Pakistan. The results of current study indicated that Conifer forests have been declining at the rate of 1.27% per annum since 1992, showing negative trends due to various causes associated with climate change i.e. increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall. So, the need for the conservation of these forests should be the basic task to accomplish order to avoid their vulnerability against various environmental and socio economic disturbances. Keywords: Citedy By: 16 Isotopic reconstructions of habitat change surrounding the extinction of Sivapithecus, a Miocene hominoid, in the Siwalik Group of Pakistan Author: Sherry V.Nelson Journal: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology ,Vol.243 (1-2), 2007--Pages Abstract: This research presents an isotopic study of a wide range of mammalian taxa from the Miocene Siwalik Group of Pakistan, with a focus on two time intervals—9.3–9.2 Ma, when the hominoid Sivapithecus was present, and 8.1–8.0 Ma, shortly after Sivapithecus became extinct. The purpose of this investigation is to reconstruct the vegetation mosaic at both time levels in order to determine what Sivapithecus habitat was like and what changes in habitat and climate may have taken place by the time Sivapithecus went extinct. Both carbon and oxygen stable isotopes were sampled from inorganic carbonate in tooth enamel. Results indicate a vegetation mosaic of both closed and open habitat at both time intervals, but a decrease in forest accompanied by an increase in open habitat (including C4 grasses) during the younger interval. Individuals from many species cluster with each other with respect to both carbon and oxygen isotope values, indicating a spectrum of feeding adaptations exploiting different parts of the habitat. Isotopic values for Sivapithecus suggest that it fed in the forest upper canopy. Taxa feeding in the most closed, wet habitat become extinct by 8.1 Ma. Furthermore, higher d18O values over time suggest a change in climate with a reduction in annual rainfall, perhaps accompanied by changes in precipitation sources or rainfall regime as well. These results suggest that forests became fragmented over time. While still present in the younger level, much of the forest was replaced by open habitat, including patches of C4 grass. Forest loss and fragmentation is a likely cause of the extinction of Sivapithecus. Keywords: Sivapithecus Miocene Paleoecology Stable isotopes Siwalik Group Citedy By: 57 Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources Author: Shinjiro Kanae,Taikan Oki Journal: Science ,Vol.313 (5790), 2006--Pages Abstract: Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and thereby increase the available RFWR. This would slow down the increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal patterns and increasing probability of extreme events may offset this effect. Reducing current vulnerability will be the first step to prepare for such anticipated changes. Keywords: Citedy By: 1630 Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems Author: Shiva Gautam, Kamaljit S. Bawa Uttam Babu Shrestha Journal: PLoS One,Vol. (), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology Keywords: Citedy By: 154 Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems Author: Shiva Gautam, Kamaljit S. Bawa,Uttam Babu Shrestha Journal: PLoS One,Vol. (), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology Keywords: Citedy By: 154 Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model Author: Siraj ul IslamEmail author, Nadia Rehman, Muhammad Munir Sheikh Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.94 (1-2), 2009--Pages Abstract: Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center’s RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961–1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071– 2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961–1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan. Keywords: Citedy By: 46 Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan Author: SM Malik, H Awan, N Khan Journal: Globalization and Health,Vol. (), 2012--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan MethodsA climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan.Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionThe study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. Keywords: Pakistan Climate change Vulnerability Health Pakistan Citedy By: 24 Biomass fuel burning and its implications: Deforestation and greenhouse gases emissions in Pakistan Author: SNA Tahir, M Rafique, AS Alaamer Journal: Environmental Pollution ,Vol.158 (7), 2010--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is facing problem of deforestation. Pakistan lost 14.7% of its forest habitat between 1990 and 2005 interval. This paper assesses the present forest wood consumption rate by 6000 brick kilns established in the country and its implications in terms of deforestation and emission of greenhouse gases. Information regarding consumption of forest wood by the brick kilns was collected during a manual survey of 180 brick kiln units conducted in eighteen provincial divisions of country. Considering annual emission contributions of three primary GHGs i.e., CO2, CH4 and N2O, due to burning of forest wood in brick kiln units in Pakistan and using IPCC recommended GWP indices, the combined CO2-equivalent has been estimated to be 533019 t y-1. Keywords: Deforestation Biomass burning Brick kilns Greenhouse gas emission Citedy By: 29 Climate change effects on beneficial plant–microorganism interactions Author: Stéphane Compant, Marcel G.A. Van Der Heijden, Angela Sessitsch Journal: FEMS Microbiology Ecology,Vol.73 (2), 2010--Pages Abstract: It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. The effects of climate change factors such as elevated CO2, drought and warming on beneficial plant–microorganism interactions are increasingly being explored. This now makes it possible to test whether some general patterns occur and whether different groups of plant-associated microorganisms respond differently or in the same way to climate change. Here, we review the results of 135 studies investigating the effects of climate change factors on beneficial microorganisms and their interaction with host plants. The majority of studies showed that elevated CO2 had a positive influence on the abundance of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi, whereas the effects on plant growth-promoting bacteria and endophytic fungi were more variable. In most cases, plant-associated microorganisms had a beneficial effect on plants under elevated CO2. The effects of increased temperature on beneficial plant-associated microorganisms were more variable, positive and neutral, and negative effects were equally common and varied considerably with the study system and the temperature range investigated. Moreover, numerous studies indicated that plant growth-promoting microorganisms (both bacteria and fungi) positively affected plants subjected to drought stress. Overall, this review shows that plant-associated microorganisms are an important factor influencing the response of plants to climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 195 Climate change effects on beneficial plant–microorganism interactions Author: Stéphane Compant,Marcel G.A. Van Der Heijden, Angela Sessitsch, Journal: FEMS Microbiology Ecology,Vol.73 (2), 2010--Pages Abstract: It is well known that beneficial plant-associated microorganisms may stimulate plant growth and enhance resistance to disease and abiotic stresses. The effects of climate change factors such as elevated CO2, drought and warming on beneficial plant–microorganism interactions are increasingly being explored. This now makes it possible to test whether some general patterns occur and whether different groups of plant-associated microorganisms respond differently or in the same way to climate change. Here, we review the results of 135 studies investigating the effects of climate change factors on beneficial microorganisms and their interaction with host plants. The majority of studies showed that elevated CO2 had a positive influence on the abundance of arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi, whereas the effects on plant growth-promoting bacteria and endophytic fungi were more variable. In most cases, plant-associated microorganisms had a beneficial effect on plants under elevated CO2. The effects of increased temperature on beneficial plant-associated microorganisms were more variable, positive and neutral, and negative effects were equally common and varied considerably with the study system and the temperature range investigated. Moreover, numerous studies indicated that plant growth-promoting microorganisms (both bacteria and fungi) positively affected plants subjected to drought stress. Overall, this review shows that plant-associated microorganisms are an important factor influencing the response of plants to climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 195 Review of Climate Change Adaptation Practices in South Asia Author: Sterrett, Charlotte Journal: Oxfam Policy and Practice: Climate Change and Resilience,Vol.7 (4), 2011--Pages Abstract: Climate change is predicted to have severe consequences for South Asia, particularly in agriculture, which employs more than 60 per cent of the region's labour force. Adaptation efforts in South Asia have so far been fragmented, lacking a strong link between national climate change strategies and plans, and existing disaster risk reduction, agricultural, and other relevant policies. This disconnectpartly stems from a lack of conceptual understanding and partly from the ongoing debate as to what constitutes adaptation and what represents good and sustainable development. Focusing on five countries in the region (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), this review captures examples of good practice in climate change adaptation programming, in order to inform Oxfam's learning, enabling it and other organisations to replicate some of these good practices in their own programmes and to advocate their adequate financing and governance. Keywords: Citedy By: 30 Response of the Ganges dispersal system to climate change: a source-to-sink view since the last interstade Author: Steven L.GoodbredJr. Journal: Sedimentary Geology,Vol.162 (1-2), 2003--Pages Abstract: The forcing of sediment dispersal systems by climate is widely accepted, but there remains disagreement on the general responses to climate change such as, how resulting signals propagate downstream and, ultimately, how they are preserved in the stratigraphic record. Towards a better understanding of these issues, this paper presents a comprehensive overview of Ganges dispersal system behavior since the last interstade, which reveals major, coeval responses to changes in the South Asian monsoon. At >3000 km from its mountain headwaters to deep-sea fan, the Ganges dispersal system is immense and yet shows tight coupling between source area, catchment basin and coastal and marine depocenters. Furthermore, system-wide responses and downstream transfer of the signal appear to occur at least as fast as current temporal resolution of 1–2 ky. This tight linkage of source-to-sink components is considered a function of the southwest (summer) monsoon's overwhelming control on regional hydrology. About 80% of the Ganges discharge and 95% of its sediment load are delivered to the margin during only 4 months, making the system extremely sensitive to this seasonal forcing. In addition, the regional scale and distribution of the monsoon weather system means that changes in atmospheric circulation affect the entire drainage basin rather than local subcomponents. Finally, despite its present intensity, strength of the summer monsoon has varied significantly over the past 150 ky under orbitally driven changes in insolation and global (glacial) boundary conditions. The resulting changes in precipitation, both well above and below modern values, have forced system-wide responses ranging from glacier advance/retreat to sediment fluxes to the margin and deep-sea fan. The overall conclusions are (1) that this immense dispersal system responds to multimillennial-scale (<104 years) climate change in a system-wide and largely contemporaneous manner and (2) that major sedimentary signals can be transferred rapidly from source to sink with little apparent attenuation. Furthermore, these acute responses to climate change have produced sedimentary/stratigraphic features that diverge from traditional sequence models in their nature and timing. Keywords: River delta Sediment transport South Asian monsoon, Paleohydrology Citedy By: 219 Climate change and malaria in India Author: Sumana Bhattacharya, C. Sharma , R. C. Dhiman and A. P. Mitra Journal: CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA,Vol.90 (3), 2006--Pages Abstract: The focus in this paper is to understand the likely influence of climate change on vector production and malaria transmission in India. A set of transmission windows typical to India have been developed, in terms of different temperature ranges for a particular range of relative humidity, by analysing the present climate trends and corresponding malaria incidences. Using these transmission window criteria, the most endemic malarious regions emerge as the central and eastern Indian regions of the country covering Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam in the current climate conditions. Applying the same criteria under the future climate change conditions (results of HadRM2 using 1S92a scenario) in 2050s, it is projected that malaria is likely to persist in Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam, bordering north of West Bengal. However, it may shift from the central Indian region to the south western coastal states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Also the northern states, including Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast may become malaria prone. The duration of the transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in the southern states. The extent of vulnerability due to malaria depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions. The increase or decrease in vulnerability due to climate change in the 2050s will therefore depend on the developmental path followed by India. Therefore it is important to understand the current adaptation mechanisms and improve the coping capacities of the vulnerable section of the population by helping to enhance their accessibility to health services, improved surveillance and forecasting technologies. Keywords: Climate determinants, malaria incidence, P. falciparum, P. vivax, transmission window, vector. Citedy By: 180 Climate change and malaria in India Author: Sumana Bhattacharya, C. Sharma , R. C. Dhiman and A. P. Mitra Journal: SPECIAL SECTION: CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA,Vol.90 (3), 2006--Pages Abstract: The focus in this paper is to understand the likely influence of climate change on vector production and malaria transmission in India. A set of transmission windows typical to India have been developed, in terms of different temperature ranges for a particular range of relative humidity, by analysing the present climate trends and corresponding malaria incidences. Using these transmission window criteria, the most endemic malarious regions emerge as the central and eastern Indian regions of the country covering Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam in the current climate conditions. Applying the same criteria under the future climate change conditions (results of HadRM2 using 1S92a scenario) in 2050s, it is projected that malaria is likely to persist in Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam, bordering north of West Bengal. However, it may shift from the central Indian region to the south western coastal states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Also the northern states, including Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast may become malaria prone. The duration of the transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in the southern states. The extent of vulnerability due to malaria depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions. The increase or decrease in vulnerability due to climate change in the 2050s will therefore depend on the developmental path followed by India. Therefore it is important to understand the current adaptation mechanisms and improve the coping capacities of the vulnerable section of the population by helping to enhance their accessibility to health services, improved surveillance and forecasting technologies. Keywords: Climate determinants, malaria incidence, P. falciparum, P. vivax, transmission window, vector. Citedy By: 149 Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation Author: Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation, Journal: Journal of Asian Economics ,Vol.18 (5), 2007--Pages Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of population growth, economic growth, energy intensity (EI) growth and urbanization growth on environmental degradation in Pakistan. The paper will investigate simultaneously the effect of population growth, urbanization, energy consumption and environmental degradation on the sustainable economic growth as well. To ensure the sustainable development of the economy environmental degradation should not increase with time but be reduced or at least remain constant. If it increases, we will move further away for sustainability, while if it decreases, we will move closer towards it. The results indicate that 1% increase in GDP growth leads to 0.84% increase in growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions, and an increase of 1% in the energy intensity growth rate causes almost 0.24% increases in growth rate of CO2 emissions. As far as results of co-integrating vector normalized on GDP growth is concerned, the coefficients of EI growth and CO2 emissions growth are found to be affecting the level of development significantly and positively by 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. This indicates that in Pakistan process of economic development is dependent on the level of energy use and the resultant of this energy use, CO2 emissions caused economic growth significantly and positively. In addition to the rapid urbanization and increased population growth affect positively to environmental degradation while negatively and significantly to the economic development in the long run. Keywords: Economic growth Environmental degradation CO2 emission Energy intensity Urbanization Citedy By: 80 Corporate Carbon Strategies in Responding to Climate Change Author: Su-yol Lee Journal: Business Strategy and the Environment,,Vol.21 (1), 2012--Pages Abstract: With climate change emerging as one of the most important issues affecting the business circle, companies have begun considering the carbon issue in their overall strategic positioning. However, few studies have examined the corporate carbon strategies in developing and advanced developing countries, where climate change regulation is extensive and market uncertainty is relatively high. In addition, there has been growing interest among researchers and practitioners concerning the relationship between the carbon strategy and firm performance. This paper presents a framework for identifying the corporate carbon strategy. The cluster analysis of 241 Korean companies indicates six types of corporate carbon strategy: ‘wait-and-see observer’, ‘cautious reducer’, ‘product enhancer’, ‘all-round enhancer’, ‘emergent explorer’ and ‘all-round explorer’. This study empirically examines whether there are differences between these carbon strategy types in terms of the sector, firm size and firm performance. The results indicate a significant relationship between a firm's carbon strategy and its sector and size but a significant relationship between the carbon strategy and firm performance is not confirmed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. Keywords: Citedy By: 89 Climate change and malaria transmission Author: SW Lindsay, MH Birley Journal: Annals of Tropical Medicine & Parasitology ,Vol.90 (5), 1996--Pages Abstract: There is a consensus among climatologists that our planet is experiencing a progressive rise in surface temperature due to the increased production of ‘greenhouse’ gases. Some of the possible consequences of elevated temperature on malaria transmission are examined in the present review. A simple mathematical model is first used to examine the effect of temperature on the ability of Anopheles maculipennis to transmit vivax malaria. This indicates that small increases in temperature at low temperatures may increase the risk of transmission substantially. This is important, since vulnerable communities, poorly protected by health services, in areas of unstable or no malaria are likely to be at increased risk of future outbreaks. In contrast, areas of stable transmission may be little affected by rising temperature. It is thought that global warming will lead to coastal flooding, changes in precipitation and, indirectly, changes in land use. Just how these changes will effect transmission at a regional level requires an understanding of the ecology of local vectors, since environmental changes which favour malaria transmission in one vector species may reduce it in another. Methods for predicting future changes in malaria in different regions are discussed, highlighting the need for further research in this area. Most importantly, there is a need for researchers to validate the accuracy of the models used for predicting malaria and to confirm the assumptions on which the models are based Keywords: Citedy By: 304 CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF PAKISTAN IMPLICATIONS FOR WATER AND AGRICULTURE Author: Syed Sajidin Hussain , Muhammad Mudasser, Muhammad Munir Sheikh, Naeem Manzoor Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.2 (4), 2005--Pages Abstract: This paper analyzes climate variability in the mountain areas of Pakistan covering winter dominated high mountain region and monsoon dominated sub-mountain region and on the bases of these analyses, discusses implications for water and agriculture for the country. Trend analyses of the historical data for the period 1971-2000 show that winter season temperatures have increased in both submountain and high mountain region during the past 30 years. Relatively higher increase in maximum winter temperatures was observed, whereas minimum temperatures during winter showed a slight decline. These results suggest that days have become warmer whereas nights have become cooler during the winter season in the high mountain areas. Monsoon temperatures (particularly maximum temperatures) have also increased in both the regions. More interestingly, maximum temperatures in the transitional periods “October-November” and “April-May” particularly in the high-mountain areas are at a rising trend. All these changes and seasonal variations have important implications for water resources and agriculture in the mountain areas in particular and for Pakistan in general. The results indicate that the maximum temperatures have increased all around the year particularly in the high mountain region during the last 30 years. Winter temperatures have increased in both sub-mountain and high-mountain regions during this period. Rainfall has also increased in both regions. The paper concludes that the increasing trends in temperature in the high mountain areas may have some positive impact on crop area and yields. However, these rising temperature trends may increase the melting of glaciers and snow, reduce snow accumulation during winter and enhance the overall de-glaciations process and therefore could well endanger the country’s sustained sources of fresh water from glaciers and snow melting. Detailed analysis is however recommended to assess the impact of climatic variability and change on water and agriculture in the mountain areas. Keywords: Citedy By: 23 Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan – An econometric analysis Author: Syed Sajidin Hussain ,Muhammad Mudasser Journal: Agricultural Systems,Vol.94 (2), 2007--Pages Abstract: We assess potential future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Swat and Chitral districts of Pakistan, mountainous areas with average altitudes of 960 and 1500 m above sea level, respectively. Using past climate data (1976–2000) to track temperature trends in both study districts, we find that increased temperatures correspond to an increase in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and a decrease in Growing Season Length (GSL). Chitral district shows a stronger decline in season length than Swat district. Compared with the estimated optimum level of 157 days, the 25 year average GSL for the dominant varieties is estimated to be 156 days in Swat district and 195 days in Chitral district. Future increases in temperature of 1.5 and 3 °C are likely to cause wheat yields to decline (by 7% and 24% respectively) in Swat district and increase (by 14% and 23% respectively) in Chitral district. Future increases in precipitation of 5–15% during the growing season show a negligible impact on wheat yield. Development and dissemination of short duration varieties, which can withstand the climatic anomalies expected in the future, should be given priority in the mountain region. More recent High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of the warmer plain areas should also be tested and introduced in the mountain areas because the expected future increases in temperatures caused by global warming would render these varieties suitable for the mountain areas. Keywords: Climate change impact Wheat yield Mountain areas Growing season length Transcendental model Chitral Swat Pakistan Citedy By: 66 Uncertain predictions, invisible impacts, and the need to mainstream gender in climate change adaptations Author: V Nelson, K Meadows, T Cannon, J Morton Journal: Gender & Development,Vol.10 (2), 2002--Pages Abstract: Vulnerability to environmental degradation and natural hazards is articulated along social, poverty, and gender lines. Just as gender is not sufficiently mainstreamed in many areas of development policy and practice, so the potential impacts of climate change on gender relations have not been studied, and remain invisible. In this article we outline climate change predictions, and explore the effects of long-term climate change on agriculture, ecological systems, and gender relations, since these could be significant. We identify predicted changes in natural hazard frequency and intensity as a result of climate change, and explore the gendered effects of natural hazards. We highlight the urgent need to integrate gender analyses into public policy-making, and in adaptation responses to climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 158 Paleoclimatic Inferences from Long Tree-Ring Records Author: Valmore C. LaMarche Jr Journal: Science,Vol.183 (4129), 1974--Pages Abstract: Tree-ring data contribute to a better understanding of the nature of past climatic variations. Annual ring records several thousand years long can be constructed for a few areas, but interpretation of them requires the development of new approaches. For example, a single record of average ring width in the upper tree line environment provides a guide to past temperature fluctuations. However, comparison of this record with another, that of the arid lower forest border, from the same area permits characterization of associated precipitation and temperature anomalies that may, in turn, be linked to features of the general circulation. Other approaches that promise to be very fruitful include study of the variation of ring-width statistics through time, investigation of the physical and chemical properties of wood, and combined multivariate analysis of data for a variety of paleoclimatic indicators. Keywords: Citedy By: 491 A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities Author: VC Broto, H Bulkeley Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.23 (1), 2013--Pages Abstract: Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city. Keywords: Climate change experiments; Mitigation;Adaptation;Governance; Cities; Infrastructure Gadget timed out while loading Citedy By: 283 Modelling Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Sunflower in Pakistan Author: W Nasim, H Belhouchette, A Ahmad Journal: Outlook on Agriculture ,Vol.45 (1), 2016--Pages Abstract: Climate change, food security, water scarcity and environmental sustainability have all become major global challenges. As a consequence, improving resource use efficiency is an important aspect of increasing crop productivity. Crop models are increasingly being used as tools for supporting strategic and tactical decision making under varying agro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. These tools can also support climate change assessment and the evaluation of adaptation strategies to limit the adverse impacts of climate change. In this paper, the authors report on a case study conducted to assess the potential impact of climate change on grain yield in sunflower under arid, semi-arid and subhumid conditions in the Punjab region of Pakistan. Experimental data obtained between 2008 and 2009 were used for model evaluation. The study focused on the impacts of incremental temperature change on sunflower production. The modelling suggests that grain yield could reduce by up to 15% by the 2020s with an average increase in temperature of +1°C, and by up to 25% if temperatures increased by up to 2°C for the 2050s. Adaptation strategies showed that, if the crop were sown between 14 days (for 2020) and 21 days (for 2050) earlier than the current date (last week in February), yield losses could potentially be reduced. Keywords: Citedy By: 8 Climate change and groundwater: a short review Author: W. Dragoni and B. S. Sukhija Journal: Geological Society, London,Vol.1 (12), 2008--Pages Abstract: There is a general consensus that climate change is an ongoing phenomenon. This will inevitably bring about numerous environmental problems, including alterations to the hydrological cycle, which is already heavily influenced by anthropogenic activity. The available climate scenarios indicate areas where rainfall may increase or diminish, but the final outcome with respect to man and environment will, generally, be detrimental. Groundwater will be vital to alleviate some of the worst drought situations. The paper analyses the main methods for studying the relationships between climate change and groundwater, and presents the main areas in which hydrogeological research should focus in order to mitigate the likely impacts. Keywords: Citedy By: 103 Abrupt climate change: causal constraints provided by the paleoclimate record Author: W.S Broecker Journal: Earth-Science Reviews,Vol.51 (1-4), 2000--Pages Abstract: Important aspects of the physics involved in the climate changes of late Quaternary time elude us. The paleoclimatic record documents in detail that these changes were vast and in many cases happened abruptly. Every element of the global climate system was involved. While a case can be made that these reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation acted as the trigger for these jumps, no one has as yet been able to articulate exactly how it is that these reorganizations are capable of inducing such large changes in the way in which the atmosphere operates, In this review, I point out what to me are the key constraints placed by the records kept in ice and in sediments. The timing of these changes suggests that they have been paced by seasonality changes related to periodicities in the Earth's orbital elements and by a curious 1500-year cycle imprinted on sediments in the northern Atlantic. But as these pacemakers are inherently weak, in order for them to generate what we see in the record, there must exist powerful and likely nonlinear feedbacks in the system. It is my hope that by bringing together this information, I will provide an impetus for creative thinking with regard to physical scenarios capable of illuminating these feedbacks. Not only is this the crucial step in understanding our past, but it is also a necessary step if we are to properly evaluate the possible consequences of the ongoing greenhouse gas buildup. Keywords: causal constraints paleoclimateclimate change Citedy By: 222 Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances Author: Wang, L., D'Odorico, P., Evans, J. P., Eldridge, D. J., McCabe, M. F., et al. Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences; ,Vol.16 (8), 2012--Pages Abstract: Drylands cover about 40 % of the terrestrial land surface and account for approximately 40 % of global net primary productivity. Water is fundamental to the biophysical processes that sustain ecosystem function and food production, particularly in drylands where a tight coupling exists between ecosystem productivity, surface energy balance, biogeochemical cycles, and water resource availability. Currently, drylands support at least 2 billion people and comprise both natural and managed ecosystems. In this synthesis, we identify some current critical issues in the understanding of dryland systems and discuss how arid and semiarid environments are responding to the changes in climate and land use. The issues range from societal aspects such as rapid population growth, the resulting food and water security, and development issues, to natural aspects such as ecohydrological consequences of bush encroachment and the causes of desertification. To improve current understanding and inform upon the needed research efforts to address these critical issues, we identify some recent technical advances in terms of monitoring dryland water dynamics, water budget and vegetation water use, with a focus on the use of stable isotopes and remote sensing. These technological advances provide new tools that assist in addressing critical issues in dryland ecohydrology under climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 93 Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review Author: William EEasterling Journal: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,Vol.80 (1), 1996--Pages Abstract: The adaptability of North American agriculture to climate change is assessed through a review of current literature. A baseline of North American agriculture without climate change suggests that farming faces serious challenges in the future (e.g. declining domestic demand, loss of comparative advantage, rising environmental costs). Climate change adjustments at the farm-level and in government policy, including international trade policy, are inventoried from the literature. The adaptive potential of agriculture is demonstrated historically with situations that are analogous to climate change, including the translocation of crops across natural climate gradients, the rapid introduction of new crops such as soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, and resource substitutions prompted by changes in prices of production inputs. A wide selection of modeling studies is reviewed which, in net, suggests several agronomic and economic adaptation strategies that are available to agriculture. Agronomic strategies include changes in crop varieties and species, timing of operations, and land management including irrigation. Economic strategies include investment in new technologies, infrastructure and labor, and shifts in international trade. Overall, such agronomic strategies were found to offset either partially or completely the loss of productivity caused by climate change. Economic adaptations were found to render the agricultural costs of climate change small by comparison with the overall expansion of agricultural production. New avenues of adaptive research are recommended including the formalization of the incorporation of adaptation strategies into modeling, linkage of adaptation to the terrestrial carbon cycle, anticipation of future technologies, attention to scaling from in situ modeling to the landscape scale, expansion of data sets and the measurement and modeling of unpriced costs. The final assessment is that climate change should not pose an insurmountable obstacle to North American agriculture. The portfolio of assets needed to adapt is large in terms of land, water, energy, genetic diversity, physical infrastructure and human resources, research capacity and information systems, and political institutions and world trade—the research reviewed here gives ample evidence of the ability of agriculture to utilize such assets. In conclusion, the apparent efficiency with which North American agriculture may adapt to climate changes provides little inducement for diverting agricultural adaptation resources to efforts to slow or halt the climate changes Keywords: Citedy By: 165 The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes Author: WKM Lau, KM Kim - Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology,Vol. (), 2012--Pages Abstract: In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave–wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China–Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intrapersonal oscillation. Keywords: Atmosphere-land interaction; Blocking; Deep convection; Energy transport; Teleconnections; Vertical motion Citedy By: 139 Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam Author: WN Adger Journal: World Development,Vol.27 (2), 1999--Pages Abstract: A framework for analyzing social vulnerability is outlined, an aspect largely underemphasized in assessments of the impacts of climate change and climate extremes. Vulnerability is defined in this paper as the exposure of individuals or collective groups to livelihood stress as a result of the impacts of such environmental change. It is constituted by individual and collective aspects which can be disaggregated, but are linked through the political economy of markets and institutions. Research in coastal northern Vietnam shows that baseline social vulnerability is enhanced by some institutional and economic factors associated with Vietnam's economic transition from central planning, namely the breakdown of collective action on protection from extreme events and an increasingly skewed income. Offsetting these trends are other institutional changes associated with the dynamic nature of the economic restructuring and evolution of the market transition in Vietnam, which decrease vulnerability. Keywords: Citedy By: 1163 Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers Author: WW Immerzeel, LPH Van Beek, MFP Bierkens Journal: Science ,Vol.328 (5984), 2010--Pages Abstract: More than 1.4 billion people depend on water from the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. Upstream snow and ice reserves of these basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability, are likely to be affected substantially by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear. Here, we show that meltwater is extremely important in the Indus basin and important for the Brahmaputra basin, but plays only a modest role for the Ganges, Yangtze, and Yellow rivers. A huge difference also exists between basins in the extent to which climate change is predicted to affect water availability and food security. The Brahmaputra and Indus basins are most susceptible to reductions of flow, threatening the food security of an estimated 60 million people Keywords: Citedy By: 1046 The vegetation and climate change during Neocene and Early Quaternary in Jiuxi Basin, China Author: Xiaomin Fang,Jijun Li,Fuli Wu,Jun Zhang,Yuzhen Ma, Journal: Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences,Vol. (), 2005--Pages Abstract: Sporopollen record in the Laojunmiao Section at Yumen in the Hexi Corridor foreland depression at the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau revealed that during the period of 13.0–11.15 Ma the ecological environment of the Jiuxi Basin is characterized by steppe vegetation and a semi-moist climate. During 11.16–8.60 Ma prevailed forests of cypress and a still warmer, moister climate; steppe vegetation and dry climate began probably at about 8.6 Ma. Although aridification had been relaxed time and again during 8.40–6.93 Ma (forest-steppe, warm-semi-moist), 6.64–5.67 Ma (open-forest and steppe, warmer-semi-moist) and 5.42–4.96 Ma (steppe, semi-arid), the climate in the region became drier and drier in response to the fre-quent occurrence of aridity during 6.93–6.64 Ma (steppe, semi-arid), 5.67–5.42 Ma (de-sert-steppe, arid), 3.66–3.30 Ma (desert-steppe, arid) and 2.56–2.21 Ma (desert, arid). Perhaps the important findings of our study are the notable expansion of drought-enduring plants during 3.66–3.30 Ma and about 2.56 Ma and the replacement of vegetation by vast arid desert. Keywords: Tibetan Plateau Hexi Corridor sporopollen record ecological environment vegetation evolution aridification Citedy By: 58 Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change Author: Y Wada, D Wisser, S Eisner, M Flörke Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.40 (17), 2013--Pages Abstract: Crop irrigation is responsible for 70% of humanity's water demand. Since the late 1990s, the expansion of irrigated areas has been tapering off, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Future irrigation water demand (IWD) is, however, subject to large uncertainties due to anticipated climate change. Here, we use a set of seven global hydrological models (GHMs) to quantify the impact of projected global climate change on IWD on currently irrigated areas by the end of this century, and to assess the resulting uncertainties arising from both the GHMs and climate projections. The resulting ensemble projections generally show an increasing trend in future IWD, but the increase varies substantially depending on the degree of global warming and associated regional precipitation changes. Under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), IWD will considerably increase during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere (>20% by 2100), and the present peak IWD is projected to shift one month or more over regions where =80% of the global irrigated areas exist and 4 billion people currently live. Uncertainties arising from GHMs and global climate models (GCMs) are large, with GHM uncertainty dominating throughout the century and with GCM uncertainty substantially increasing from the midcentury, indicating the choice of GHM outweighing by far the uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM and associated emission scenario. Keywords: Citedy By: 102 Large-scale hydrological change drove the late Miocene C4 plant expansion in the Himalayan foreland and Arabian Peninsula Author: Yongsong Huang, ,Steven C. Clemens, ,Weiguo Liu, ,Yi Wang, ,Warren L. Prell, Journal: Geology, 2007,Vol.35 (6), 2007--Pages Abstract: Carbon isotope changes in paleosols from Siwalik, Pakistan, and marine sediments from the Bengal Fan indicate a major C4 plant expansion in the Himalayan foreland during the late Miocene. However, the timing and mechanisms behind the C4 plant expansion remain enigmatic. Here we present high-resolution (~60 k.y.) biomarker and compound-specific isotope data spanning the past 11 m.y. from Ocean Drilling Program Site 722 in the Arabian Sea. An~5‰–6‰ increase in leaf wax d13 C values indicates a marked rise of C4 plants from 10 to 5.5 Ma, with accelerated expansion from 7.9 to 5.5 Ma. A concurrent ~50‰ rise in leaf wax dD values is attributed to a combined effect of changes in precipitation amount and evaporation, indicating that source regions for the plant waxes became progressively drier from 10 to 5.5 Ma. In contrast to earlier reports, our isotope records, biomarker abundances, alkenone UK'37, and Globigerina bulloides abundance data do not suggest enhanced summer monsoon circulation during this time interval. Rather, our results suggest that large-scale hydrological changes drove the late Miocene expansion of C4 plants in the Himalayan foreland and Arabian Peninsula. Keywords: Citedy By: 117 Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk Author: Yosef Jabareen Journal: Cities ,Vol.31 (), 2013--Pages Abstract: This paper contributes to filling the theoretical and practical gaps of city resilience literature, which lacks multifaceted theorizing and typically overlooks the multidisciplinary and complex nature of urban resilience. Furthermore, most studies on the subject make use of general, vague, and confusing terminology. This paper suggests a new innovative conceptual framework (the Resilient City Planning Framework or RCPF) that addresses the critical question of what cities and their urban communities should do in order to move towards a more resilient state in the future. Accordingly, the RCPF takes complexity and uncertainty into account. It is affected by a multiplicity of economic, social, spatial, and physical factors and its planning involves a wide range of stakeholders. RCPF is a network of four interlinked concepts that together, provide a comprehensive understanding of City Resilience. Keywords: Urban resilience Climate change Environmental risks Planning Citedy By: 162 Hydrology of mountainous areas in the upper Indus Basin, Northern Pakistan with the perspective of climate change Author: Zulfiqar Ahmad, Mohsin Hafeez, Iftikhar Ahmad. Journal: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,Vol.184 (9), 2012--Pages Abstract: Mountainous areas in the northern Pakistan are blessed by numerous rivers that have great potential in water resources and hydropower production. Many of these rivers are unexploited for their water resource potential. If the potential of these rivers are explored, hydropower production and water supplies in these areas may be improved. The Indus is the main river originating from mountainous area of the Himalayas of Baltistan, Pakistan in which most of the smaller streams drain. In this paper, the hydrology of the mountainous areas in northern Pakistan is studied to estimate flow pattern, long-term trend in river flows, characteristics of the watersheds, and variability in flow and water resource due to impact of climate change. Eight watersheds including Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Astore, Jhelum, Swat, and Chitral, Pakistan have been studied from 1960 to 2005 to monitor hydrological changes in relation to variability in precipitation, temperature and mean monthly flows, trend of snow melt runoff, analysis of daily hydrographs, water yield and runoff relationship, and flow duration curves. Precipitation from ten meteorological stations in mountainous area of northern Pakistan showed variability in the winter and summer rains and did not indicate a uniform distribution of rains. Review of mean monthly temperature of ten stations suggested that the Upper Indus Basin can be categorized into three hydrological regimes, i.e., high-altitude catchments with large glacierized parts, middle-altitude catchments south of Karakoram, and foothill catchments. Analysis of daily runoff data (1960–2005) of eight watersheds indicated nearly a uniform pattern with much of the runoff in summer (June–August). Impact of climate change on long-term recorded annual runoff of eight watersheds showed fair water flows at the Hunza and Jhelum Rivers while rest of the rivers indicated increased trends in runoff volumes. The study of the water yield availability indicated a minimum trend in Shyok River at Yogo and a maximum trend in Swat River at Kalam. Long-term recorded data used to estimate flow duration curves have shown a uniform trend and are important for hydropower generation for Pakistan which is seriously facing power crisis in last 5 years. Keywords: Eight watersheds Climate change Himalayan Regions Hunza Shyok Astore Recent floods The Indus River Citedy By: 19 A 5000-yr record of climate change in varved sediments from the oxygen minimum zone off Pakistan, Northeastern Arabian Sea Author: U Von Rad, M Schaaf, KH Michels, H Schulz Journal: Quaternary Research,Vol.51 (1), 1999--Pages Abstract: The upper Holocene marine section from a kasten core taken from the oxygen minimum zone off Karachi (Pakistan) at water depth 700 m contains continuously laminated sediments with a sedimentation rate of 1.2 mm/yr and a unique record of monsoonal climatic Keywords: Citedy By: 283 Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds Author: úlia Seixas,Nuno Ricardo Pacheco,João Pedro Nunes, Journal: Hydrological Processes,Vol.22 (16), 2008--Pages Abstract: Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO2concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi-arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO2concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi-arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Keywords: Citedy By: 82 Network political ecology: Method and theory in climate change vulnerability and adaptation research Author: Trevor Birkenholtz Journal: Progress in Human Geography,Vol.36 (3), 2012--Pages Abstract: This paper argues for the development of ‘network political ecology’, drawing on the insights from regional political ecology and recent advancements in network theories of scale, to meet the challenges of investigating the meso-scale problem of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. ‘Network political ecology’, attentive to scale as socio-ecologically produced and grounded in a regional resource use system, is one such approach that fills this gap in middle-range theory necessary to understand the complex processes through which vulnerability manifests and adaptive capacity is produced. This method is exemplified through the case of groundwater-dependent irrigating farmers in Rajasthan, India. Keywords: Citedy By: 64 Urban Health Inequities and the Added Pressure of Climate Change: An Action-Oriented Research Agenda Author: Trevor Hancock,Tord Kjellstrom,Gordon McGranahan,Patricia Monge,Joyashree Roy,Sharon Friel, Journal: Journal of Urban Health,Vol. (), 2011--Pages Abstract: Climate change will likely exacerbate already existing urban social inequities and health risks, thereby exacerbating existing urban health inequities. Cities in low- and middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Urbanization is both a cause of and potential solution to global climate change. Most population growth in the foreseeable future will occur in urban areas primarily in developing countries. How this growth is managed has enormous implications for climate change given the increasing concentration and magnitude of economic production in urban localities, as well as the higher consumption practices of urbanites, especially the middle classes, compared to rural populations. There is still much to learn about the extent to which climate change affects urban health equity and what can be done effectively in different socio-political and socio-economic contexts to improve the health of urban dwelling humans and the environment. But it is clear that equity-oriented climate change adaptation means attention to the social conditions in which urban populations live—this is not just a climate change policy issue, it requires inter-sectoral action. Policies and programs in urban planning and design, workplace health and safety, and urban agriculture can help mitigate further climate change and adapt to existing climate change. If done well, these will also be good for urban health equity. Keywords: Urban health Health inequity Climate change Evidence Citedy By: 37 Climate change and groundwater: India's opportunities for mitigation and adaptation Author: Tushaar Shah Journal: Environmental Research Letters,Vol. (), 2009--Pages Abstract: For millennia, India used surface storage and gravity flow to water crops. During the last 40 years, however, India has witnessed a decline in gravity-flow irrigation and the rise of a booming 'water-scavenging' irrigation economy through millions of small, private tubewells. For India, groundwater has become at once critical and threatened. Climate change will act as a force multiplier; it will enhance groundwater's criticality for drought-proofing agriculture and simultaneously multiply the threat to the resource. Groundwater pumping with electricity and diesel also accounts for an estimated 16–25 million mt of carbon emissions, 4–6% of India's total. From a climate change point of view, India's groundwater hotspots are western and peninsular India. These are critical for climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. To achieve both, India needs to make a transition from surface storage to 'managed aquifer storage' as the center pin of its water strategy with proactive demand- and supply-side management components. In doing this, India needs to learn intelligently from the experience of countries like Australia and the United States that have long experience in managed aquifer recharge. Keywords: Citedy By: 152 Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict Author: R Reuveny Journal: Political Geography,Vol.26 (6), 2007--Pages Abstract: In a world of rising sea levels and melting glaciers, climate change is most likely occurring but with uncertain overall effects. I argue that we can predict the effects of climate change on migration by exploring the effects of environmental problems on migration in recent decades. People can adapt to these problems by staying in place and doing nothing, staying in place and mitigating the problems, or leaving the affected areas. The choice between these options will depend on the extent of problems and mitigation capabilities. People living in lesser developed countries may be more likely to leave affected areas, which may cause conflict in receiving areas. My findings support this theory, and suggest certain policy implications for climate change. Keywords: Climate change Migration Conflict Citedy By: 606 Predicting impacts of climate change on medicinal asclepiads of Pakistan using Maxent modeling Author: R Khanum, AS Mumtaz, S Kumar Journal: Acta Oecologica,Vol.49 (), 2013--Pages Abstract: Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling was used to predict the potential climatic niches of three medicinally important Asclepiad species: Pentatropis spiralis, Tylophora hirsuta, and Vincetoxicum arnottianum. All three species are members of the Asclepiad plant family, yet they differ in ecological requirements, biogeographic importance, and conservation value. Occurrence data were collected from herbarium specimens held in major herbaria of Pakistan and two years (2010 and 2011) of field surveys. The Maxent model performed better than random for the three species with an average test AUC value of 0.74 for P. spiralis, 0.84 for V. arnottianum, and 0.59 for T. hirsuta. Under the future climate change scenario, the Maxent model predicted habitat gains for P. spiralis in southern Punjab and Balochistan, and loss of habitat in south-eastern Sindh. Vincetoxicum arnottianum as well as T. hirsuta would gain habitat in upper Peaks of northern parts of Pakistan. T. hirsuta is predicted to lose most of the habitats in northern Punjab and in parches from lower peaks of Galliat, Zhob, Qalat etc. The predictive modeling approach presented here may be applied to other rare Asclepiad species, especially those under constant extinction threat. Keywords: Climate change Niche modeling Maxent Species distribution modeling Species vulnerability Risk analysis Citedy By: 50 The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries Author: R Mendelsohn, A Dinar, L Williams Journal: Development Economics,Vol.11 (2), 2006--Pages Abstract: This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further warming pushes these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors. Keywords: Citedy By: 387 SW—Soil and Water: Climate Change and Water Resources Management in Arid and Semi-arid Regions: Prospective and Challenges for the 21st Century Author: R Ragab, C Prudhomme Journal: Biosystems Engineering,Vol.81 (1), 2002--Pages Abstract: The overgrowing population and the recent droughts are putting water resources under pressure and calling for new approaches for water planning and management if escalating conflicts are to be avoided and environmental degradation is to be reversed. As countries are using their water resources with growing intensity, poor rainfall increasingly leads to national water crises as water tables fall and reservoirs, wetlands and rivers empty. Global warming could cause further changes, further variability and further uncertainty. The UK Hadley Centre's global climate model was run at a spatial scale of 2•5 by 3•75° (latitude and longitude) grid squares to simulate the global climate according to scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration emission. Runs of the model assuming the emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1995 are analysed here for the 2050s time horizon. Outputs provide estimations of climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, at a monthly time step. Those results, assumed representative of future climatic conditions, are compared to mean monthly values representative of the current climate and expressed in terms of percentage change. The results show that, for the dry season (April–September), by the 2050s, North Africa and some parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Israel, are expected to have reduced rainfall amounts of 20–25% less than the present mean values. This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by a temperature rise in those areas of between 2 and 2•75°C. For the same period, the temperature in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean countries will rise by about 1•5°C. In wintertime, the rainfall will decrease by about 10–15% but would increase over the Sahara by about 25%. Given the low rainfall rate over the Sahara, the increase by 25% will not bring any significant amount of rain to the region. In wintertime, the temperature in the coastal areas will also increase but by only 1•5°C on average, while inside the region it will increase by 1•75–2•5°C. In southern Africa (Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa), results suggest an increase of the annual average temperature ranging between 1•5 and 2•5°C in the south to between 2•5 and 3°C in the north. The summer range is between 1•75 and 2•25°C in the south, and increases towards the north to between 2•75 and 3•0°C while the winter range is between 1•25 and 2°C in the south, and increases towards the north to between 2•5 and 2•75°C. On the other hand, the annual average will decrease by 10–15% in the south and by 5–10% in the north. The annual average decrease is 10%. However, some places will have an increase i.e. by 5–20% in South Africa in wintertime. In the Taklimakan region (Tarim Basin) west of China, the annual average temperature is shown to increase by 1•75–2•5°C. Annual average rainfall should increase by 5–>25% in most of the region but decrease by 5–10% in some small parts. In summer, an increase by 5–15% is indicated in most of the region, and an increase by up to 25% or more during the wintertime.In the Thar Desert (India–Pakistan–Afghanistan), estimations suggest that the annual average increase in temperature ranges from 1•75 to 2•5°C, ranging from 1•5 to 2•25°C in winter and from 2 to 2•5°C in summer. Annual average precipitation is shown to decrease by 5–25% in the region. The winter will have values closer to the annual average but the summer will have more decrease and most of the region will see a decrease closer to 25%.In the Aral Sea basin (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), estimates suggest an annual average increase in temperature ranging from 1•75 to 2•25°C, higher in summer (between 2 and 2•75°C) than in winter (between 1•5 and 2°C). Rainfall should increase by 5–20% annually, in summer increasing by 5–10% in the north but decreasing by up to 5% in the south, while in wintertime, both south and north should undergo increases of 5–10% and 20–25%, respectively. In Australia, results indicate an increase in the annual average temperature ranges of 1–1•5°C in the south to 2•5–2•75°C in the north, slightly higher during the summer than in the winter. The summer range is between 1 and 2°C in the south and increases towards the north to 2•5–3•0°C while the winter range is between 1 and 1•5°C in the south, and increases towards the north to between 2 and 2•25°C. Rainfall annual average is shown to decrease by 20–25% in the south and by 5–10% in the north. Given the above-mentioned facts, in order to meet the water demands in the next century, some dams and water infrastructure will be built in some countries and a new paradigm by rethinking the water use with the aim of increasing the productive use of water will have to be adopted. Two approaches are needed: increasing the efficiency with which current needs are met and increasing the efficiency with which water is allocated among different uses. In addition, non-conventional sources of water supply such as reclaimed, recycled water and desalinated brackish water or seawater is expected to play an important role Keywords: Citedy By: 334 Security and climate change Author: J Barnett Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.13 (1), 2003--Pages Abstract: Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change. Keywords: Climate change National security Human security Conflict Citedy By: 618 Global Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases Author: JA Patz, PR Epstein, TA Burke, JM Balbus Journal: Jama, 1996,Vol.275 (3), 1996--Pages Abstract: Climatic factors influence the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases, in addition to multiple human, biological, and ecological determinants. Climatologists have identified upward trends in global temperatures and now estimate an unprecedented rise of 2.0°C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the introduction and dissemination of many serious infectious diseases.The incidence of mosquito-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and viral encephalitides, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the vector's geographic range and increasing reproductive and biting rates and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. Climate-related increases in sea surface temperature and sea level can lead to higher incidence of water-borne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and shellfish poisoning. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture and potential alterations in the human immune system caused by increased flux of ultraviolet radiation. Analyzing the role of climate in the emergence of human infectious diseases will require interdisciplinary cooperation among physicians, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists. Increased disease surveillance, integrated modeling, and use of geographically based data systems will afford more anticipatory measures by the medical community. Understanding the linkages between climatological and ecological change as determinants of disease emergence and redistribution will ultimately help optimize preventive strategies. Keywords: Citedy By: 688 Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study Author: JM Hamilton, DJ Maddison, RSJ Tol Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.15 (3), 2005--Pages Abstract: The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. Keywords: Tourism demand Climate change Global model Citedy By: 455 The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios Author: M Akhtar, N Ahmad, MJ Booij Journal: Journal of Hydrology,Vol.355 (1-4), 2008--Pages Abstract: This paper presents estimates of water resources changes in three river basins in the Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya (HKH) region associated with climate change. The present climate (1961–1990) and future climate SRES A2 scenario (2071–2100) are simulated by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. Two HBV models (i.e. HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS) are designed to quantify the future discharge. HBV-Met is calibrated and validated with inputs from observed meteorological data while HBV-PRECIS is calibrated and validated with inputs from PRECIS RCM simulations for the current climate. The future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through the delta change approach in HBV-Met, while in HBV-PRECIS future precipitation and temperature series from PRECIS RCM are directly used. The future discharge is simulated for three stages of glacier coverage: 100% glaciers, 50% glaciers and 0% glaciers. Generally temperature and precipitation shows an increase towards the end of 21st century. The efficiencies of HBV-Met during calibration and validation are higher compared to the HBV-PRECIS efficiencies. In a changed climate, discharge will generally increase in both models for 100% and 50% glacier scenarios. For the 0% glacier scenario, HBV-Met predicts a drastic decrease in water resources (up to 94%) in contrast to HBV-PRECIS which shows only a decrease up to 15%. Huge outliers in annual maximum discharge simulated through HBV-Met indicate that hydrological conditions are not predicted perfectly through the delta change downscaling approach. The results for HBV-Met simply confirm that the quality of observed data in this region is poor. The HBV-PRECIS model results are indicative of the higher risk of flood problems under climate change. The climate change signals in all three river basins are similar however, there are differences in the evaluated future water resources estimated through HBV-Met, whereas in HBV-PRECIS the changes in water resources are similar. This shows that the transfer of climate change signals into hydrological changes is more consistent in HBV-PRECIS than in HBV-Met. One of the reasons of the poorer results of the delta change approach is that in this approach the frequency of rainy days is not changed and day to day variability in temperature is not correctly transferred. However more research is needed to evaluate the uncertainties in both downscaling approaches. Moreover, the dynamical downscaling approach needs to be tested with other RCMs and preferably to other river basins as well. Keywords: Regional climate model Delta change approach HBV model Climate change Glacier coverage Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region Citedy By: 294 The GLOBE climate legislation study: a review of climate change legislation in 66 countries: fourth edition Author: M Nachmany, S Fankhauser, T Townshend, M Collins Journal: Monograph (Report),Vol. (), 2014--Pages Abstract: The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study is the most comprehensive audit of climate legislation across 66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of global manmade greenhouse gas emissions. It is produced by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics in collaboration with GLOBE International. The 4th edition of the Study was formally launched at the 2nd GLOBE Climate Legislation Summit held at the Senate of the United States of America and at the World Bank in Washington DC on 27th-28th February 2014. The next edition of the Climate Legislation Study will be launched in early 2015, covering legislation in 100 countries. Key messages from the 4th edition: ?Almost 500 climate laws have been passed in the 66 countries covered by the study; the direction of travel is clear; and encouragingly, it is developing countries and emerging markets, which are advancing climate change laws and regulation at the fastest pace. ?Even though the legislative progress is impressive, the cumulative ambition of these laws is not yet sufficient to limit global average temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the agreed goal of the international community. ?In order for a successful outcome in Paris in 2015 there is now extreme urgency to strengthen commitments, and for countries that have not yet passed climate change laws and/or regulations to do so. Keywords: Citedy By: 66 Climate change and world food security: a new assessment Author: M Parry, C Rosenzweig, A Iglesias, G Fischer Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.9 (1), 1999--Pages Abstract: Building on previous work quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hulme et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO, 1988) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million people (±10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble members is selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked reductions in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario the effect is even more severe, producing an estimated additional 70+ million people at risk of hunger in Africa. Keywords: Climate change Food security Crop yields Citedy By: 523 Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change Author: MA Hanjra, ME Qureshi Journal: Food Policy,Vol.35 (5), 2010--Pages Abstract: Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges. Keywords: Climate resilient Energy crisis Credit crisis Irrigation Food trade Prices Citedy By: 430 Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios Author: ML Parry, C Rosenzweig, A Iglesias… - … 2004 - Elsevier Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.14 (1), 2004--Pages Abstract: This paper analyses the global consequences to crop yields, production, and risk of hunger of linked socio-economic and climate scenarios. Potential impacts of climate change are estimated for climate change scenarios developed from the HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI, A2, B1, and B2. Projected changes in yield are calculated using transfer functions derived from crop model simulations with observed climate data and projected climate change scenarios. The basic linked system (BLS) is used to evaluate consequent changes in global cereal production, cereal prices and the number of people at risk from hunger. The crop yield results elucidate the complex regional patterns of projected climate variables, CO2 effects, and agricultural systems that contribute to aggregations of global crop production. The A1FI scenario, as expected with its large increase in global temperatures, exhibits the greatest decreases both regionally and globally in yields, especially by the 2080s. The contrast between the yield change in developed and developing countries is largest under the A2a–c scenarios. Under the B1 and B2 scenarios, developed and developing countries exhibit less contrast in crop yield changes, with the B2 future crop yield changes being slightly more favourable than those of the B1 scenario.When crop yield results are introduced to the BLS world food trade system model, the combined model and scenario experiments demonstrate that the world, for the most part, appears to be able to continue to feed itself under the SRES scenarios during the rest of this century. However, this outcome is achieved through production in the developed countries (which mostly benefit from climate change) compensating for declines projected, for the most part, for developing nations. While global production appears stable, regional differences in crop production are likely to grow stronger through time, leading to a significant polarisation of effects, with substantial increases in prices and risk of hunger amongst the poorer nations, especially under scenarios of greater inequality (A1FI and A2).The use of the SRES scenarios highlights several non-linearities in the world food supply system, both in the biophysical sense, where the levels of atmospheric CO2tested reach new levels, and the socio-economic sense, where changes in population dynamics and economic and political structures complicate the translation of biophysical climate change impacts into social indices, such as the number of people at risk of hunger Keywords: Citedy By: 1496 Climate change and global water resources Author: Nigel W.Arnell Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.9 (1), 1999--Pages Abstract: By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact. Keywords: Climate change Global water resources Global runoff Hydrological impacts of climate change Citedy By: 957 Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios Author: NW Arnell Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.14 (1), 2004--Pages Abstract: In 1995, nearly 1400 million people lived in water-stressed watersheds (runoff less than 1000 m3/capita/year), mostly in south west Asia, the Middle East and around the Mediterranean. This paper describes an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate projections made using six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios. River runoff was simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° under current and future climates using a macro-scale hydrological model, and aggregated to the watershed scale to estimate current and future water resource availability for 1300 watersheds and small islands under the SRES population projections. The A2 storyline has the largest population, followed by B2, then A1 and B1 (which have the same population). In the absence of climate change, the future population in water-stressed watersheds depends on population scenario and by 2025 ranges from 2.9 to 3.3 billion people (36–40% of the world's population). By 2055 5.6 billion people would live in water-stressed watersheds under the A2 population future, and “only” 3.4 billion under A1/B1. Climate change increases water resources stresses in some parts of the world where runoff decreases, including around the Mediterranean, in parts of Europe, central and southern America, and southern Africa. In other water-stressed parts of the world—particularly in southern and eastern Asia—climate change increases runoff, but this may not be very beneficial in practice because the increases tend to come during the wet season and the extra water may not be available during the dry season. The broad geographic pattern of change is consistent between the six climate models, although there are differences of magnitude and direction of change in southern Asia. By the 2020s there is little clear difference in the magnitude of impact between population or emissions scenarios, but a large difference between different climate models: between 374 and 1661 million people are projected to experience an increase in water stress. By the 2050s there is still little difference between the emissions scenarios, but the different population assumptions have a clear effect. Under the A2 population between 1092 and 2761 million people have an increase in stress; under the B2 population the range is 670–1538 million, respectively. The range in estimates is due to the slightly different patterns of change projected by the different climate models. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% variation in the population totals under a storyline could lead to variations in the numbers of people with an increase or decrease in stress of between 15% and 20%. The impact of these changes on actual water stresses will depend on how water resources are managed in the future. Keywords: Climate change impacts Global water resources Water resources stresses emissions scenarios Macro-scale hydrological model Multi-decadal variability Citedy By: 1079 The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium Author: KS Treydte, GH Schleser, G Helle, DC Frank Journal: Nature,Vol.440 ( ), 2006--Pages 1179-1182 Abstract: Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation1. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself2,3. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables3, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes4,5,6,7,8. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role. Keywords: Citedy By: 392 Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming Author: WJM Martens, TH Jetten, DA Focks Journal: Climatic change,Vol.35 (2), 1997--Pages 145-156 Abstract: Global assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenically-induced climate change on vector-borne diseases suggests an increase in extent of the geographical areas susceptible to transmission of malarial Plasmodium parasites, dengue Flavivirus and Schistosoma worms. The transmission potential of the three associated vector-borne diseases studied is highly sensitive to climate changes on the periphery of the currently endemic areas and at higher altitudes within such areas. Our findings vis-à-vis the present endemic areas indicate that the increase in the epidemic potential of malaria and dengue transmission may be estimated at 12–27% and 31–47%, respectively, while in contrast, schistosomiasis transmission potential may be expected to exhibit a 11–17% decrease. Keywords: Climate Change Malaria Geographical Area Global Warming High Altitude Citedy By: 294 Recent (1980–2009) evidence of climate change in the upper Karakoram, Pakistan Author: D Bocchiola, G Diolaiuti Journal: Theoretical and applied climatology,Vol.113 (3), 2013--Pages 611-641 Abstract: We investigate here recent (1980–2009) climate variability in the upper Karakoram, Northern Pakistan, of particular interest given the peculiar glacier behavior during the last two decades. Differently from other glacierized regions in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, glaciers in the Karakoram display limited ice thinning, and in some cases advancing has been detected. Climate analysis is required to describe recent (i.e., last three decades) variability, to aid highlighting of the factors driving glacier evolution. Starting from monthly data, we analyze seasonal values of total precipitation, number of wet days, maximum (max) and minimum (min) air temperature, max precipitation in 24 h, and cloud cover for 17 weather stations in the upper Karakoram, clustered within three climatic regions as per use of principal components analysis. We detect possible nonstationarity in each of these regions by way of (1) linear regression, (2) moving window average, and (3) Mann–Kendall test, also in progressive form, to detect the onset date of possible trends. We then evaluate linear correlation coefficients between Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and climate variables to assess effectiveness of teleconnections, claimed recently to affect climate in this area. Also, we compare temperature within the investigated zone against global temperature anomalies, to evidence enhanced warming within this area. We found mostly nonsignificant changes of total precipitation, unless for few stations displaying increase in Chitral-Hindu Kush region and Northwest Karakoram, or Gilgit area, and decrease in Western Himalaya, Kotli region. Max precipitation is mostly unchanged, unless for slight increase in Chitral and Gilgit areas, and slight decrease in Kotli region. Number of wet days is mostly increasing in Gilgit area, and decreasing in Chitral area, with no clear signal in Kotli region. Min temperatures increase always but during Summer, when decreasing values are detected, especially for Gilgit and Chitral regions. Max temperatures are found to increase everywhere. Cloud cover is significantly increasing in Gilgit area, but decreasing otherwise, especially in Kotli region. Max temperature regime is significantly positively correlated against global thermal anomaly, while min temperature regime is nonsignificantly negatively correlated. Max and min temperatures seem mostly negatively correlated to NAO. Some dependence of trend intensity for the considered variables against altitude is found, different for each region, suggesting that investigation of weather variables at the highest altitudes is warranted to discriminate further climate variability in the area Keywords: Citedy By: 52 Adaptation to climate change in the developing world Author: WN Adger, S Huq, K Brown Journal: Progress in Development Studie,Vol.3 (3), 2003--Pages Abstract: The world’s climate is changing and will continue to change into the coming century at rates projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. The risks associated with these changes are real but highly uncertain. Societal vulnerability to the risks associated with climate change may exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges, particularly for those parts of societies dependent on resources that are sensitive to changes in climate. Risks are apparent in agriculture, fisheries and many other components that constitute the livelihood of rural populations in developing countries. In this paper we explore the nature of risk and vulnerability in the context of climate change and review the evidence on present-day adaptation in developing countries and on coordinated international action on future adaptation. We argue that all societies are fundamentally adaptive and there are many situations in the past where societies have adapted to changes in climate and to similar risks. But some sectors are more sensitive and some groups in society more vulnerable to the risks posed by climate change than others. Yet all societies need to enhance their adaptive capacity to face both present and future climate change outside their experienced coping range. The challenges of climate change for development are in the present. Observed climate change, present-day climate variability and future expectations of change are changing the course of development strategies - development agencies and governments are now planning for this adaptation challenge. The primary challenge, therefore, posed at both the scale of local natural resource management and at the scale of international agreements and actions, is to promote adaptive capacity in the context of competing sustainable development objectives. Keywords: adaptation, climate change, environmental policy, uncertainty, vulnerability Citedy By: 1379 Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan Author: V Mueller, C Gray, K Kosec Journal: Nature climate change,Vol.4 (2), 2014--Pages Abstract: Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities 1,2. Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited 3,4,5,6,7,8,9. A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991–2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding—a climate shock associated with large relief efforts—has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however—which has attracted relatively little relief—consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements. Keywords: Citedy By: 103 GIS-based high-resolution spatial interpolation of precipitation in mountain–plain areas of Upper Pakistan for regional climate change impact studies Author: MW Ashiq, C Zhao, J Ni, M Akhtar Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.131 (319), 2010--Pages Abstract: In this study, the baseline period (1960–1990) precipitation simulation of regional climate model PRECIS is evaluated and downscaled on a monthly basis for northwestern Himalayan mountains and upper Indus plains of Pakistan. Different interpolation models in GIS environment are used to generate fine scale (250?×?250 m2) precipitation surfaces from PRECIS precipitation data. Results show that the multivariate extension model of ordinary kriging that uses elevation as secondary data is the best model especially for monsoon months. Model results are further compared with observations from 25 meteorological stations in the study area. Modeled data show overall good correlation with observations confirming the ability of PRECIS to capture major precipitation features in the region. Results for low and erratic precipitation months, September and October, are however showing poor correlation with observations. During monsoon months (June, July, August) precipitation pattern is different from the rest of the months. It increases from south to north, but during monsoon maximum precipitation is in the southern regions of the Himalayas, and extreme northern areas receive very less precipitation. Modeled precipitation toward the end of the twenty-first century under A2 and B2 scenarios show overall decrease during winter and increase in spring and monsoon in the study area. Spatially, both scenarios show similar pattern but with varying magnitude. In monsoon, the Himalayan southern regions will have more precipitation, whereas northern areas and southern plains will face decrease in precipitation. Western and south western areas will suffer from less precipitation throughout the year except peak monsoon months. T test results also show that changes in monthly precipitation over the study area are significant except for July, August, and December. Result of this study provide reliable basis for further climate change impact studies on various resources. Keywords: Root Mean Square Error Regional Climate Model Baseline Period Ordinary Kriging Cokriging Citedy By: 60 Climate change: can wheat beat the heat? Author: R Ortiz, KD Sayre, B Govaerts, R Gupta Journal: Agriculture, Ecosystems ,Vol.126 (2), 2008--Pages 46-58 Abstract: Climate change could strongly affect the wheat crop that accounts for 21% of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. This article reviews some of the approaches for addressing the expected effects that climate change may likely inflict on wheat in some of the most important wheat growing areas, namely germplasm adaptation, system management, and mitigation. Future climate scenarios suggest that global warming may be beneficial for the wheat crop in some regions, but could reduce productivity in zones where optimal temperatures already exist. For example, by 2050, as a result of possible climate shifts in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) – currently part of the favorable, high potential, irrigated, low rainfall mega-environment, which accounts for 15% of global wheat production – as much as 51% of its area might be reclassified as a heat-stressed, irrigated, short-season production mega-environment. This shift would also represent a significant reduction in wheat yields, unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered to and adopted by South Asian farmers. Under the same climate scenarios, the area covered by the cool, temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65°N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor, germplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm, as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Encouraging results include identifying sources of alleles for heat tolerance and their introgression into breeding populations through conventional methods and biotechnology. Likewise, agronomists and extension agents are aiming to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues. Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification. Through the existing global and regional research-for-development networks featuring wheat, technology and knowledge can flow to allow farmers to face the risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Triticum aestivum Climate change Conservation agriculture Genetic enhancement Mega-environment Wheat Citedy By: 428 The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios Author: M Akhtar, N Ahmad, MJ Booij Journal: Journal of hydrology,Vol.355 (1-4), 2008--Pages 148-163 Abstract: This paper presents estimates of water resources changes in three river basins in the Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya (HKH) region associated with climate change. The present climate (1961–1990) and future climate SRES A2 scenario (2071–2100) are simulated by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. Two HBV models (i.e. HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS) are designed to quantify the future discharge. HBV-Met is calibrated and validated with inputs from observed meteorological data while HBV-PRECIS is calibrated and validated with inputs from PRECIS RCM simulations for the current climate. The future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through the delta change approach in HBV-Met, while in HBV-PRECIS future precipitation and temperature series from PRECIS RCM are directly used. The future discharge is simulated for three stages of glacier coverage: 100% glaciers, 50% glaciers and 0% glaciers. Generally temperature and precipitation shows an increase towards the end of 21st century. The efficiencies of HBV-Met during calibration and validation are higher compared to the HBV-PRECIS efficiencies. In a changed climate, discharge will generally increase in both models for 100% and 50% glacier scenarios. For the 0% glacier scenario, HBV-Met predicts a drastic decrease in water resources (up to 94%) in contrast to HBV-PRECIS which shows only a decrease up to 15%. Huge outliers in annual maximum discharge simulated through HBV-Met indicate that hydrological conditions are not predicted perfectly through the delta change downscaling approach. The results for HBV-Met simply confirm that the quality of observed data in this region is poor. The HBV-PRECIS model results are indicative of the higher risk of flood problems under climate change. The climate change signals in all three river basins are similar however, there are differences in the evaluated future water resources estimated through HBV-Met, whereas in HBV-PRECIS the changes in water resources are similar. This shows that the transfer of climate change signals into hydrological changes is more consistent in HBV-PRECIS than in HBV-Met. One of the reasons of the poorer results of the delta change approach is that in this approach the frequency of rainy days is not changed and day to day variability in temperature is not correctly transferred. However more research is needed to evaluate the uncertainties in both downscaling approaches. Moreover, the dynamical downscaling approach needs to be tested with other RCMs and preferably to other river basins as well. Keywords: Citedy By: 318 Climate change at the 4.2 ka BP termination of the Indus valley civilization and Holocene south Asian monsoon variability Author: M Staubwasser, F Sirocko Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.30 (8), 2003--Pages Abstract: Planktonic oxygen isotope ratios off the Indus delta reveal climate changes with a multi-centennial pacing during the last 6 ka, with the most prominent change recorded at 4.2 ka BP. Opposing isotopic trends across the northern Arabian Sea surface at that time indicate a reduction in Indus river discharge and suggest that later cycles also reflect variations in total annual rainfall over south Asia. The 4.2 ka event is coherent with the termination of urban Harappan civilization in the Indus valley. Thus, drought may have initiated southeastward habitat tracking within the Harappan cultural domain. The late Holocene drought cycles following the 4.2 ka BP event vary between 200 and 800 years and are coherent with the evolution of cosmogenic 14C production rates. This suggests that solar variability is one fundamental cause behind Holocene rainfall changes over south Asia. Keywords: Citedy By: 339 Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? Author: R Seager, N Naik, L Vogel Journal: Journal of Climate,Vol.25 (9), 2012--Pages 3355-3372 Abstract: The idea that global warming leads to more droughts and floods has become commonplace without clear indication of what is meant by this statement. Here, the authors examine one aspect of this problem and assess whether interannual variability of precipitation P minus evaporation E becomes stronger in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century, as deduced from an ensemble of models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3. It is shown that indeed interannual variability of P ? E does increase almost everywhere across the planet, with a few notable exceptions such as southwestern North America and some subtropical regions. The variability increases most at the equator and the high latitudes and least in the subtropics. Although most interannual P ? E variability arises from internal atmosphere variability, the primary potentially predictable component is related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO-driven interannual P ? E variability clearly increases in amplitude in the tropical Pacific, but elsewhere the changes are more complex. This is not surprising in that ENSO-driven P ? E anomalies are primarily caused by circulation anomalies combining with the climatological humidity field. As climate warms and the specific humidity increases, this term leads to an intensification of ENSO-driven P ? E variability. However, ENSO-driven circulation anomalies also change, in some regions amplifying but in others opposing and even overwhelming the impact of rising specific humidity. Consequently, there is sound scientific basis for anticipating a general increase in interannual P ? E variability, but the predictable component will depend in a more complex way on both thermodynamic responses to global warming and on how tropically forced circulation anomalies alter. Keywords: Climate change; Climate variability; Hydrologic cycle Citedy By: 88 Organic carbon exhumation and global warming during the early Himalayan collision Author: Richard A. Beck Douglas W. Burbank William J. Sercombe Thomas L. Olson Asrar M. Khan Journal: Geology,Vol.23 (5), 1995--Pages 387-390 Abstract: Organic carbon eroded and oxidized from marine sediments on the passive and active neo-Tethyan margins during the early Indian-Asian collision may have been sufficient to shift the carbon isotopic ratios of late Paleocene–early Eocene marine carbonates toward lighter values, and may have contributed to coeval global warming via the greenhouse effect. New limits on the timing of collision and the organic carbon content of Himalayan sedimentary sources and sinks allow us to estimate the net Paleogene flux. Our calculations suggest that continental collisions play a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and climate through the exhumation as well as burial of organic carbon. Keywords: Citedy By: 46 The impact of municipal solid waste treatment methodson greenhouse gas emissions in Lahore, Pakistan Author: SA Batool, MN Chuadhry Journal: Waste management,Vol.29 (1), 2009--Pages 63-69 Abstract: The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84 kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclables with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO2equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH4) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO2 equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO2 equivalents of –33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO2equivalents compared to the baseline scenario. Keywords: Citedy By: 76 Impact of climate change on wheat production: A case study of Pakistan [with Comments] Author: PZ Janjua, G Samad, NU Khan, M Nasir Journal: The Pakistan Development Review,Vol.49 (4), 2010--Pages Abstract: Climate change, due to greenhouse gases increasing the earth's overall temperature, is an emerging issue of agricultural production. The higher temperatures may negatively affect the growth process of wheat and decrease the production of wheat. The objective of this study is to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production which is the main food crop of Pakistan. The study uses the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data, the study captures trends for the impact of climate change on wheat production for the period 2010-2060. The results of the historical data estimation reveal that up until now, there is no significant negative impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. However, future wheat production will significantly depend on the climate change variables. Therefore, appropriate adaptative and mitigative techniques are recommended to cope with or at least to reduce this newly emerging hazard. Keywords: Citedy By: 29 Prospects of solar water heating for textile industry in Pakistan Author: T Muneer, S Maubleu, M Asif Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy ,Vol.10 (1), 2006--Pages 1-23 Abstract: Energy is the prime source of human activities in all sectors of life. Traditionally fossil fuel has been the prime source of energy. However, there are two major concerns regarding fossil fuels, i.e. their rapid depletion and their contribution towards growing global warming. It is being widely realized that for sustainable development presently used energy mediums such as fossil fuel and nuclear power have to be quickly replaced by renewable energy sources. The latter are sustainable and have the potential to meet present and future projected global energy demands without inflicting any environmental impacts. Pakistan is amongst the most prominent cotton producing countries in the world. The affluent availability of local cotton has lead to a well-established textile sector in Pakistan. A large proportion of its cotton products go into export. Being a successful candidate in international textile market Pakistani textile industry is continuously seeking modern and high-tech facilities to improve quality of its products. The biggest challenge Pakistani textile industry is facing today is how to cut down its environmental burdens to cope with the international standards on the issue. Keywords: Citedy By: 0 Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change Author: MA Hanjra, ME Qureshi Journal: Food Policy,Vol.35 (5), 2010--Pages 365-377 Abstract: Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges. Keywords: Climate resilient Energy crisis Credit crisis Irrigation Food trade Prices Citedy By: 494 Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in the area-weighted annual mean temperature of Pakistan Author: M Afzaal, MA Haroon, Q ul Zaman Journal: Pakistan Journal of Metrology ,Vol.6 (11), 2009--Pages Abstract: The assessment of change in temperature of the country is very much essential in the global warming context. The availibity of accurate and reliable long term temperature records becomes imperative for the purpose mentioned above. In the partial fulfillment of the need the area-weighted annual temperature time series for Pakistan is prepared for the period 1901 – 2007, by merging the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) observed datasets. For this purpose, some statistical analysis has been done on both the datasets to evaluate the agreement between the two datasets. The datasets were found to have correlation of 0.86 for the period 1960 – 2000, besides other similarities of variance, mean, standard deviation etc. After the reconstruction of long term temperature time series spectral analysis has been carried out to identify the variations over the time span in terms of frequency. This analysis revealed that there are inter decadal oscillations of the period of 14 – 50 years and inter annual oscillations of the period 5 – 6 years in the time series. Linear trend analysis showed that there is a clear indication of warming in Pakistan. The increasing rate of temperature has been found to be 0.06°C per decade. Total change in temperature is calculated to be 0.64°C, with warming and cooling episodes in last 127 years. Keywords: Citedy By: 23 Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation Author: S Alam, A Fatima, MS Butt Journal: Journal of Asian Economics,Vol.18 (5), 2007--Pages 825-837 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of population growth, economic growth, energy intensity (EI) growth and urbanization growth on environmental degradation in Pakistan. The paper will investigate simultaneously the effect of population growth, urbanization, energy consumption and environmental degradation on the sustainable economic growth as well. To ensure the sustainable development of the economy environmental degradation should not increase with time but be reduced or at least remain constant. If it increases, we will move further away for sustainability, while if it decreases, we will move closer towards it. The results indicate that 1% increase in GDP growth leads to 0.84% increase in growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions, and an increase of 1% in the energy intensity growth rate causes almost 0.24% increases in growth rate of CO2 emissions. As far as results of co-integrating vector normalized on GDP growth is concerned, the coefficients of EI growth and CO2 emissions growth are found to be affecting the level of development significantly and positively by 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. This indicates that in Pakistan process of economic development is dependent on the level of energy use and the resultant of this energy use, CO2 emissions caused economic growth significantly and positively. In addition to the rapid urbanization and increased population growth affect positively to environmental degradation while negatively and significantly to the economic development in the long run. Keywords: Economic growth Environmental degradation CO2 emission Energy intensity Urbanization Citedy By: 94 Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon Author: AG Turner, H Annamalai Journal: Nature Climate Change ,Vol.2 (), 2012--Pages 587-595 Abstract: The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people. Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall. However, we are beginning to understand more about processes driving the monsoon, its seasonal cycle and modes of variability. This gives us the hope that we can build better models and ultimately reduce the uncertainty in our projections of future monsoon rainfall. Keywords: Citedy By: 344 Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan Author: SM Malik, H Awan, N Khan Journal: Global Health. ,Vol.8 (31), 2012--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan.MethodsA climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. Keywords: Pakistan, Climate change, Vulnerability, Health. Citedy By: 26 The melting Himalayas: cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods Author: J Xu, RE Grumbine, A Shrestha, M Eriksson Journal: Conservation,Vol.23 (3), 2009--Pages 520-530 Abstract: The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator–prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making. Keywords: Citedy By: 436 Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in the area-weighted annual mean temperature of Pakistan Author: M Afzaal, MA Haroon, Qul Zaman Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.6 (11), 2009--Pages Abstract: The assessment of change in temperature of the country is very much essential in the global warming context. The availability of accurate and reliable long term temperature records becomes imperative for the purpose mentioned above. In the partial fulfillment of the need the area-weighted annual temperature time series for Pakistan is prepared for the period 1901 – 2007, by merging the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) observed datasets. For this purpose, some statistical analysis has been done on both the datasets to evaluate the agreement between the two datasets. The datasets were found to have correlation of 0.86 for the period 1960 – 2000, besides other similarities of variance, mean, standard deviation etc. After the reconstruction of long term temperature time series spectral analysis has been carried out to identify the variations over the time span in terms of frequency. This analysis revealed that there are inter decadal oscillations of the period of 14 – 50 years and inter annual oscillations of the period 5 – 6 years in the time series. Linear trend analysis showed that there is a clear indication of warming in Pakistan. The increasing rate of temperature has been found to be 0.06°C per decade. Total change in temperature is calculated to be 0.64°C, with warming and cooling episodes in last 127 years Keywords: Citedy By: 23 Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman's rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan Author: I Ahmad, D Tang, TF Wang, M Wang Journal: Advances in Meteorology,Vol. (), 2015--Pages 1-15 Abstract: Accurately predicting precipitation trends is vital in the economic development of a country. This research investigated precipitation variability across 15 stations in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, over a 51-year study period (1961–2011). Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation, and the trend-free prewhitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlation in the precipitation time series. The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation. One station in particular, the Saidu Sharif station, showed the maximum number of significant monthly precipitation events, followed by Abazai, Khairabad, and Malakand. On the seasonal time scale, precipitation trends changed from the summer to the autumn season. The Saidu Sharif station revealed the highest positive trend (7.48?mm/year) in annual precipitation. In the entire Swat River basin, statistically insignificant trends were found in the subbasins for the annual precipitation series; however, the Lower Swat subbasin showed the maximum quantitative increase in the precipitation at a rate of 2.18?mm/year. The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level. Keywords: Citedy By: 47 Biomass fuel burning and its implications: deforestation and greenhouse gases emissions in Pakistan Author: SNA Tahir, M Rafique, AS Alaamer Journal: Environmental Pollution,Vol.158 (7), 2010--Pages 2490-2495 Abstract: Pakistan is facing problem of deforestation. Pakistan lost 14.7% of its forest habitat between 1990 and 2005 interval. This paper assesses the present forest wood consumption rate by 6000 brick kilns established in the country and its implications in terms of deforestation and emission of greenhouse gases. Information regarding consumption of forest wood by the brick kilns was collected during a manual survey of 180 brick kiln units conducted in eighteen provincial divisions of country. Considering annual emission contributions of three primary GHGs i.e., CO2, CH4 and N2O, due to burning of forest wood in brick kiln units in Pakistan and using IPCC recommended GWP indices, the combined CO2-equivalent has been estimated to be 533019 t y?1. Keywords: Deforestation, Biomass burning, Brick kilns, Greenhouse gas emission Citedy By: 32 Climate change in Asia: a review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production Author: A Iglesias, L Erda, C Rosenzweig Journal: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific,Vol. (), 1996--Pages 13-27 Abstract: A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapo-transpiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Nino/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors. Keywords: Asia agriculture El Niño Citedy By: 63 Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India Author: R Mahmood, MS Babel Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.113 (1-2), 2013--Pages 27-44 Abstract: The study evaluates statistical downscaling model (SDSM) developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, and assesses future changes in climate in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India. Additionally, bias correction is applied on downscaled climate variables. The mean explained variances of 66, 76, and 11 % for max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation, respectively, are obtained during calibration of SDSM with NCEP predictors, which are selected through a quantitative procedure. During validation, average R 2 values by the annual sub-model (SDSM-A)—followed by bias correction using NCEP, H3A2, and H3B2—lie between 98.4 and 99.1 % for both max and min temperature, and 77 to 85 % for precipitation. As for the monthly sub-model (SDSM-M), followed by bias correction, average R 2 values lie between 98.5 and 99.5 % for both max and min temperature and 75 to 83 % for precipitation. These results indicate a good applicability of SDSM-A and SDSM-M for downscaling max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation under H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios for future periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in this basin. Both sub-models show a mean annual increase in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation. Under H3A2, and according to both sub-models, changes in max temperature, min temperature, and precipitation are projected as 0.91–3.15 °C, 0.93–2.63 °C, and 6–12 %, and under H3B2, the values of change are 0.69–1.92 °C, 0.56–1.63 °C, and 8–14 % in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These results show that the climate of the basin will be warmer and wetter relative to the baseline period. SDSM-A, most of the time, projects higher changes in climate than SDSM-M. It can also be concluded that although SDSM-A performed well in predicting mean annual values, it cannot be used with regard to monthly and seasonal variations, especially in the case of precipitation unless correction is applied. Keywords: Root Mean Square Error, Regional Climate Model, Bias Correction, Future Period Statistical Downscaling Citedy By: 65 Rise in summer heat index over Pakistan Author: M Zahid, G Rasul Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.6 (12), 2010--Pages Abstract: Heat index is a serious threat to health in Southern Punjab, almost all parts of Sindh, South eastern Baluchistan extending upto coast and plains of North Eastern Baluchistan of Pakistan particularly during summer. The temperature is rising due to anthropogenic activities resulting in global warming. Summer season has prolonged while winters have become short in Pakistan. Summers have become hotter and thus affecting the lives of the people engaged in outdoor activities during scorching sun hours. The rise in heat index has been calculated from 1961 to 2007 during summer (May- September) in different regions of the country. The aim of this paper is to identify the spots most vulnerable to heat strokes, heat waves and sun burns due to high heat index. The results show rising trend of heat index in almost all the regions of Pakistan. The highest increase in heat index value has been observed in areas of Azad Jammu & Kashmir. The second highest increase is observed in Punjab and Sindh regions where thermal regime is already a challenge to human tolerance. Even Northern Areas, Baluchistan and NWFP have also shown rising trend of heat index. The summer season analysis for the entire Pakistan has also done combining all the regions of the country to calculate the total change in heat index over the time scale of 47 years. . The average increase in apparent air temperature in Pakistan is 3°C. (276.15K). Pakistan experiences a clear shift in heat index pattern from its southern half towards northern half. Keywords: Citedy By: 24 Curbing global warming with phase change materials for energy storage Author: MR Anisur, MH Mahfuz, MA Kibria, R Saidur Journal: Renewable and and Sustainable Energy Reviews ,Vol.18 (), 2013--Pages 23-30 Abstract: The application of thermal energy storage (TES) system with phase change material (PCM) is an effective way for energy conservation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. Global warming is increasing along with the energy consumption. Many researchers are concerned about this present global environmental problem for fossil-fuel burning. Thermal energy storage system with phase change material is observed as a potential candidate for mitigating this problem. This paper emphasizes the opportunities for energy savings and greenhouse-gas emissions reduction with the implementation of PCM in TES systems. For instance, about 3.43% of CO2 emission by 2020 could be reduced through the application of PCM in building and solar thermal power systems. Similarly, energy conservation and GHGs emission reduction by other PCM applications for thermal comfort of vehicles, transport refrigeration, engine cold start, greenhouse and waste heat management are also presented. In addition, some present investigations on the performance improvement of the phase change materials are addressed. Keywords: Thermal energy storage, Phase change material Fossil fuel consumption Energy saving Greenhouse gas emission Citedy By: 65 Herders' perceptions of and responses to climate change in northern Pakistan Author: S Joshi, WA Jasra, M Ismail, RM Shrestha Journal: Environmental Management ,Vol.52 (3), 2013--Pages 639-648 Abstract: Migratory pastoralism is an adaptation to a harsh and unstable environment, and pastoral herders have traditionally adapted to environmental and climatic change by building on their in-depth knowledge of this environment. In the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and particularly in the arid and semiarid areas of northern Pakistan, pastoralism, the main livelihood, is vulnerable to climate change. Little detailed information is available about climate trends and impacts in remote mountain regions; herders’ perceptions of climate change can provide the information needed by policy makers to address problems and make decisions on adaptive strategies in high pastoral areas. A survey was conducted in Gilgit–Baltistan province of Pakistan to assess herders’ perceptions of, and adaptation strategies to climate change. Herders’ perceptions were gathered in individual interviews and focus group discussions. The herders perceived a change in climate over the past 10–15 years with longer and more intense droughts in summer, more frequent and heavier snowfall in winter, and prolonged summers and relatively shorter winters. These perceptions were validated by published scientific evidence. The herders considered that the change in climate had directly impacted pastures and then livestock by changing vegetation composition and reducing forage yield. They had adopted some adaptive strategies in response to the change such as altering the migration pattern and diversifying livelihoods. The findings show that the herder communities have practical lessons and indigenous knowledge related to rangeland management and adaptation to climate change that should be shared with the scientific community and integrated into development planning. Keywords: Adaptation Climate change Herders Hindu Kush Himalayan region Perception Rangeland Citedy By: 18 Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the eastern Hindu Kush, Chitral, northern Pakistan: a review and revision of the glacial chronology Author: LA Owen, U Kamp, JQ Spencer, K Haserodt Journal: Quaternary International,Vol.97-98 (), 2002--Pages 41-55 Abstract: Glacial landforms and sediments provide evidence for two Late Quaternary major glaciations in the eastern Hindu Kush. New optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was undertaken to define the timing of these glaciations and associated sediment deposition. The Drosh Glacial, was defined by OSL dating to have occurred during marine isotopic stage-3, producing an extensive valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of ?1300 m above sea level (asl) in the main valley, with an equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression of ?1200 m. The Pret Glacial produced a valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of ?1670 m asl. in the main valley, with an ELA depression of ?1000 m. The new OSL dating suggests that this glacial stage probably represents several glacial advances that occurred during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Moraines representing two minor glacial advances, the Shandur and Barum Glacial stages, were also recognized near the contemporary glaciers. These probably formed during the Middle/Late Holocene and Little Ice Age, respectively. This study and comparisons with adjacent regions suggest that there was limited glaciation during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Hindu Kush. Deglaciation in the mountain ranges of the Himalayas and the consequent meltwater discharge into the adjacent seas was negligible immediately after the global LGM and it was therefore of minor importance as a forcing factor for global climate change during the end of the last glacial cycle. However, our studies show that glaciation and particularly deglaciation is important in controlling the deposition of thick valley fills and the landscape evolution of the high mountain environments. Keywords: Citedy By: 120 Fluctuations of Raikot Glacier during the past 70 years: a case study from the Nanga Parbat massif, northern Pakistan Author: S Schmidt, M Nüsser Journal: Journal of Glaciology,Vol.55 (194), 2009--Pages 949-959 Abstract: The Himalaya has some of the largest glacier concentrations outside the polar regions. Despite this, long-term measurements detecting the impact of global warming and changing precipitation patterns on glaciers are rare. The Nanga Parbat massif in northern Pakistan is an exception. The cartographer and glaciologist R. Finsterwalder investigated glacier dynamics of this mountain massif in the 1930s, and several other studies document changes since then. The aim of this study is to detect and analyse the changes of Raikot Glacier over the past seven decades. We use a multitemporal and multiscale approach, based on repeat terrestrial images, additional historical data and remotely sensed imagery (Corona, ASTER, Landsat, QuickBird). The multitemporal approach covers the period 1934–2007. While the analyses show a total glacier retreat of ~200 m in 73 years, this general trend was interrupted by a significant glacier advance between the 1950s and 1980s. Although down-wasting processes can be inferred from an increase in debris-covered area, a general trend of reduced glacier thickness does not appear significant over the whole observation period Keywords: Citedy By: 55 The Karakoram anomaly? Glacier expansion and the 'elevation effect,'Karakoram Himalaya Author: K Hewitt Journal: Mountain Research and Development,Vol.25 (4), 2005--Pages 332-340 Abstract: In the late 1990s widespread evidence of glacier expansion was found in the central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. The expansions were almost exclusively in glacier basins from the highest parts of the range and developed quickly after decades of decline. Exceptional numbers of glacier surges were also reported. Unfortunately, there has been no on-going measurement of climatic or glaciological variables at these elevations. The present article examines possible explanations for this seemingly anomalous behavior, using evidence from short-term monitoring programs, low-altitude weather stations, and the distinctive environmental characteristics of the region. The latter involve interactions between regional air mass climatology, its seasonality, topoclimate or ‘verticality’ effects on glaciers with extreme altitudinal range, climatic sensitivities of heavy versus thin supraglacial debris, and complex temperature distributions in ice masses with ice falls throughout critical elevations. Valley climate stations indicate increases in precipitation over the past 50 years and small declines in summer temperatures, which may indicate positive trends in glacier mass balance. However, the suddenness of the expansions is problematic, as is their confinement to glaciers from the highest watersheds while others continue to retreat. Thermal shifts in ice masses with extreme altitude ranges may be even more critical, leading to an accelerated redistribution of ice mass by elevation. Keywords: Citedy By: 411 Snow cover dynamics and hydrological regime of the Hunza River basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan Author: P Chevallier, Y Arnaud Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, European Geosciences Union, ,Vol.15 (7), 2011--Pages 2259-2274 Abstract: A major proportion of flow in the Indus River is contributed by its snow- and glacier-fed river catchments situated in the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush ranges. It is therefore essential to understand the cryosphere dynamics in this area for water resource management. The MODIS MOD10A2 remote-sensing database of snow cover products from March 2000 to December 2009 was selected to analyse the snow cover changes in the Hunza River basin (the snow- and glacier-fed sub-catchment of the Indus River). A database of daily flows for the Hunza River at Dainyor Bridge over a period of 40 yr and climate data (precipitation and temperature) for 10 yr from three meteorological stations within the catchment was made available to investigate the hydrological regime in the area. Analysis of remotely sensed cryosphere (snow and ice cover) data during the last decade (2000-2009) suggest a rather slight expansion of cryosphere in the area in contrast to most of the regions in the world where glaciers are melting rapidly. This increase in snow cover may be the result of an increase in winter precipitation caused by westerly circulation. The impact of global warming is not effective because a large part of the basin area lies under high altitudes where the temperature remains negative throughout most of the year. Keywords: Citedy By: 85 Projections of crop water requirement in Pakistan under global warming Author: G Naheed, G Rasul Journal: Journal of Meteorology,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages 45-51 Abstract: Climate change has now been globally recognized as a challenging threat to the humanity. The anthropogenic activities are also among the driving forces besides others. The consequent impacts on various sectors, especially the agriculture, are more pronounced. Due to fact that the weather/climate has no political boundaries the developed industrial nations are polluting their regional environment and ecology. In this way the under developed and poor nations, like Pakistan, have to suffer severely. Besides this the availability and reservation of water resources are also a giant challenge in future, on international as well on regional level. Also due to political and strategic relationship to the neighboring countries, water availability would be a big problem for the country in near future. Future projections for climate are showing increasing trend in surface temperatures, which will ultimately augment some agro-meteorological elements like reference crop evapo-transpiration (ETo) etc. The current study is carried out to analyse the subsequent effects of increasing temperatures on ETo and on the agriculture water demand in the country. In the light of climate projections from various authentic sources like IPCC, increasing trends of 1-3°C have been studied which is likely in next 50 years. It has been concluded that the southern half of Pakistan may be the least affected areas in the time to come. However, in northern half, a sharp increase in water demand as compared to the present will appear leading to the enhanced risk of crop failure in rain fed areas where supplementary irrigation is not available. This study will help in crop monitoring and in the assessment that how much water available in future for crops; which type of crops would suit the climate, Better management and building of new water reservoirs may help to cope the situation for an improved agriculture growth. Keywords: Climate Change, Anthropogenic, Agro-meteorology, Evapo-transpiration, Temperature Citedy By: 0 Climate change vulnerability and adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan Author: KM Salik, S Jahangir, S ul Hasson Journal: Ocean & Coastal Management,Vol.112 (), 2015--Pages 61-73 Abstract: This study aims to explore climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of mangrove-dependent communities in the Indus Delta. We evaluate the linkages between vulnerability indicators by relating a community perceptions with observed and projected climate change scenarios. In evaluating these linkages, some key questions are considered such as: what are the likely socio-economic drivers contributing to community's sensitivity? Are these drivers impacting the community and how much is the community's coping potential to climate change? What are the key adaptation options necessary for increasing the community's resilience? This study is carried out in a coastal town (Keti Bandar), which is located in the Indus delta. This region is highly sensitive to declining fresh water flows, changing climate and meager socio-economic resources of local population. We have used the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) approach in order to draw a general picture of the community's vulnerability under a changing climate in Keti Bandar. The data for three CVI components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) are collected at household level through questionnaire-based survey in six villages, however for exposure, secondary data is also acquired. Our assessment shows that these coastal communities, either engaged with the fishery or agriculture sector, are not only exposed, but are also highly sensitive to climate change driven threats. Moreover, lack of access to basic facilities, inadequate income diversification, and low education levels are negatively affecting the adaptive capacity of the entire local population. However, the communities' nature of dwelling, their strong family networks, and their ability to migrate contribute positively to their adaptive capacity. Keywords: Composite Vulnerability Index, Indus Delta, Exposure Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity Citedy By: 19 An Analysis of Knowledge Gaps in Climate Change Research Author: Ghulam Rasul Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages 1-9 Abstract: Climate change has posed a serious threat to whole humanity en masse, and an effective and collaborative effort by all communities is required to address this serious challenge. Organizations, at regional and global scale, are striving to unify the scientific community for collaborative and synergetic efforts to deal with the issue of global warming and climate change. Such cooperation, based on sharing of knowledge and expertise among the scientific community, is need worthy to tackle the issues related to global warming and climate change. Pakistan, in pursuit of solutions regarding climate change, has also given a serious attention by making an apex body “The Task Force on Climate Change”. The said has been established by the Prime Minister, which assembles quarterly and semi-annually to discuss the issues related to climate change and their ramifications. These meeting are chaired by the Prime Minister himself. Its mandate includes organization of climate change based research, assemblage of research groups, identification of the knowledge gaps, and assessment of the capacity and compilation of unified research results for the guidance of planners and policy makers. Keywords: Citedy By: 0 Diagnostic Study of Heavy Downpour in the central part of Pakistan Author: Muhammad Aleem-ul-Hassan, Sajjad Haider, Kalim Ullah Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages 53-61 Abstract: Diagnosis of heavy rainfall event of July 2005 that caused urban flooding in Multan City, located in Punjab province of Pakistan has been carried out in the study. By using the conventional weather charts of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data plots and analysis of temporal and spatial distribution of different weather parameters at the surface and in the upper air have been done. It is diagnosed that the heavy rainfall occurred under the influence of approaching monsoon depression, westerly wave prevailing over Kashmir and surrounding Himalayan region and its interaction with the upper air easterly wave. Besides this, the meso-scale low slightly northeast of the study area and an intensified ridge penetrating from northeast up to west of the study area, created the area of discontinuity that caused the interaction of northeastern and southwestern currents. The intensive heating in the last week of June and due to influence of westerly, a meso-scale low was formed in the leading trough of depression. The seasonal low was also realigned due to its interaction with westerly wave and the depression. Streamlines at lower level indicate that moisture transport from Arabian Sea was started two days prior to the event with maximum transport from 3rd July Night. On the basis of these synoptic features the amount of rainfall can be predicted well in time and therefore, it may help in minimizing the flood damages in the form of losses of human lives, soil erosion as well as managing the sewerage channels. Keywords: Conventional Weather Charts; Monsoon Depression; Mesoscale Low Citedy By: 0 Pakistan's two stage monsoon and links with the recent climate change Author: SY Wang, RE Davies, WR Huang Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research ,Vol.116 (16), 2011--Pages Abstract: Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large-scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: (1) a pre-monsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough, and (2) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July pre-monsoon trough phase, accompanied by increased frequency of heavy rainfall events. Conversely, evidence does not support intensification of the August monsoon trough phase. The increased convective activity during the pre-monsoon trough phase agrees with the projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events over northern Pakistan. Large-scale circulation analysis reveals an upper-level cyclonic anomaly over and to the west of Pakistan–a feature empirically associated with weak monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the anomalous circulation in 2010 is not sporadic but rather is part of a long-term trend that defies the typical linkage of strong monsoons with an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere. Keywords: Citedy By: 63 Estimation of Average Snow Cover over Northern Pakistan Author: Farrukh Bashir, Ghulam Rasul Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages Abstract: Pakistan is largely dependent on its frozen hydrological resources, i.e., snow cover and glaciated ice on the mountains of Northern Pakistan, as they maintain the perennial flows in riverine network of country. In winters, western depressions bestow substantial amount of snowfall on ranges of HKH housed by Northern Pakistan and in summers these frozen reserves feed rivers of Pakistan. The runoff is generally stored in reservoirs for hydropower generation and irrigation, therefore, it is imperative to measure snowmelt generated runoff for distribution and allocation of water for different objectives. As, snowmelt runoff is generated through melting of snow and glaciated ice, thus, precise estimation of snow cover of mountain ranges of HKH is highly desirable. To map snow cover over a large area is now viable with advancement of remote sensing using the platforms of satellite. Due to periodic revisits of satellites over the area of interest, it is now convenient to monitor the snow cover at regular intervals. Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a reliable sensor, due to its spatial, temporal and radiometric resolution, for mapping snow cover of Northern Pakistan. Images of MODIS, since its inception i.e., 2000 to 2010 are used in this study, as clouds offer obstruction in operation of satellite sensors in visible portion of electromagnetic radiation spectrum and area of interest experiences cloudiness most of the times, thus, endeavor is made to retrieve at least one image per week. Normalized Differential Snow Index (NDSI) is adopted to exploit different wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation to draw snow cover maps. Snow cover area is calculated in square kilometers and curves of snow cover extent are drawn for each year separately and an empirical relationship is made for average snow cover with respect to seasons. Keywords: Snow Cover, HKH, Northern Pakistan, Snow Melt Runoff, Remote Sensing, MODIS, Citedy By: 0 Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments Author: SS Sabade, A Kulkarni, RH Kripalani Journal: Theoretical and applied climatology,Vol.103 (3-4), 2011--Pages 543-565 Abstract: South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031–2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081–2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space–time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation–wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño–Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon. Keywords: Monsoon, Rainfall, Equatorial Indian Ocean, Monsoon Precipitation, Indian Summer Monsoon, Rainfall Hadley Circulation Citedy By: 48 Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon Author: MA Bollasina, Y Ming, V Ramaswamy Journal: Science,Vol.334 (6055), 2011--Pages 502-505 Abstract: Observations show that South Asia underwent a widespread summertime drying during the second half of the 20th century, but it is unclear whether this trend was due to natural variations or human activities. We used a series of climate model experiments to investigate the South Asian monsoon response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. We find that the observed precipitation decrease can be attributed mainly to human-influenced aerosol emissions. The drying is a robust outcome of a slowdown of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, which compensates for the aerosol-induced energy imbalance between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These results provide compelling evidence of the prominent role of aerosols in shaping regional climate change over South Asia. Keywords: Citedy By: 420 South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4 Author: RH Kripalani, JH Oh, A Kulkarni, SS Sabade Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.90 (3-4), 2007--Pages 133-159 Abstract: South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the coupled climate models assessed as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment. Out of the 22 models examined, 19 are able to capture the maximum rainfall during the summer monsoon period (June through September) with varying amplitude. While two models are unable to reproduce the annual cycle well, one model is unable to simulate the summer monsoon season. The simulated inter-annual variability from the 19 models is examined with respect to the mean precipitation, coefficient of variation, long-term trends and the biennial tendency. The model simulated mean precipitation varies from 500?mm to 900?mm and coefficient of variation from 3 to 13%. While seven models exhibit long-term trends, eight are able to simulate the biennial nature of the monsoon rainfall. Six models, which generate the most realistic 20th century monsoon climate over south Asia, are selected to examine future projections under the doubling CO2 scenario.Projections reveal a significant increase in mean monsoon precipitation of 8% and a possible extension of the monsoon period based on the multi-model ensemble technique. Extreme excess and deficient monsoons are projected to intensify. The projected increase in precipitation could be attributed to the projected intensification of the heat low over northwest India, the trough of low pressure over the Indo-Gangetic plains, and the land–ocean pressure gradient during the establishment phase of the monsoon. The intensification of these pressure systems could be attributed to the decline in winter/spring snowfall. Furthermore, a decrease of winter snowfall over western Eurasia is also projected along with an increase of winter snowfall over Siberia/eastern Eurasia. This projected dipole snow configuration during winter could imply changes in mid-latitude circulation conducive to subsequent summer monsoon precipitation activity. An increase in precipitable water of 12–16% is projected over major parts of India. A maximum increase of about 20–24% is found over the Arabian Peninsula, adjoining regions of Pakistan, northwest India and Nepal. Although the projected summer monsoon circulation appears to weaken, the projected anomalous flow over the Bay of Bengal (Arabian Sea) will support oceanic moisture convergence towards the southern parts of India and Sri Lanka (northwest India and adjoining regions). The ENSO-Monsoon relationship is also projected to weaken. Keywords: Summer Monsoon Monsoon Rainfall, Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Indian Monsoon Rainfall, South Asian Summer Monsoon Citedy By: 262 Managing the Indus River basin in light of climate change: Four conceptual approaches Author: JL Wescoat Jr Journal: Global Environmental Change,Vol.1 (5), 1991--Pages 381-395 Abstract: Global warming raises troubling questions about the ecological and economic future of large irrigated river basins such as the Indus River in Pakistan. But it is not clear how potential impacts might best be identified or addressed. This article reports on a multidisciplinary study of four distinct conceptual approaches to climate change: climate scenarios assessment; critical water management problems; historic antecedents and analogies; and Muslim political reconstruction. Current scientific research emphasizes the first approach, but the other three may be more important for water managers in the basin. The article reviews previous research on water resources effects of climate change; introduces the Indus basin; discusses the four conceptual approaches; and finally discusses prospects for coordinating them. Keywords: Citedy By: 41 Thermal comfort of outdoor spaces in Lahore, Pakistan: Lessons for bioclimatic urban design in the context of global climate change Author: N Mazhar, RD Brown, N Kenny, S Lenzholzer Journal: Landscape and Urban Planning ,Vol.138 (), 2015--Pages 110-117 Abstract: Humans interact with urban microclimates through exchanges of energy. A surplus of energy can create thermal discomfort and be detrimental to human health. Many cities in warm regions all over the world are forecast to become very hot through global climate change. Some cities already experience extreme heat and have done so for centuries. We conducted a study of one such city in order to generate design guidelines for creating thermally comfortable outdoor places. In the hot, dry city of Lahore, Pakistan we compared the microclimates of two very different outdoor spaces. The first place was the 16th century Shalimar Garden, which contains much green infrastructure and water features. The other example was the hard-surfaced courtyard of the contemporary Alhamra Art Centre. In both places we measured the microclimatic characteristics and used those data to simulate thermal sensation through the energy-budget model COMFA. The measured air temperature and humidity in both spaces was similar. However, the solar radiation that would be received by a person in the Alhamra courtyard was much higher than in Shalimar Garden and was the main determinant of thermal discomfort. Results from this study can inform other cities in hot, dry climates about design responses that provide more outdoor thermal comfort and prevent health-threatening heat. Keywords: Landscape architecture, Microclimate, Energy budget, Model Citedy By: 18 Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: a support vector machine approach Author: S Tripathi, VV Srinivas, RS Nanjundiah Journal: Journal of hydrology,Vol.330 (3-4), 2006--Pages 621-640 Abstract: The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies. Keywords: Precipitation, Downscaling, Climate change, General circulation model, (GCM), Support vector machine, Neural network, Hydro climatology, India Citedy By: 365 Water management in the Indus basin in Pakistan: challenges and opportunities Author: AS Qureshi Journal: Mountain Research and Development,Vol.31 (3), 2011--Pages 252-260 Abstract: The Indus River basin supplies water to the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, providing water for 90% of the food production in Pakistan, which contributes 25% of the country's gross domestic product. But Pakistan could face severe food shortages intimately linked to water scarcity. It is projected that, by 2025, the shortfall of water requirements will be ?32%, which will result in a food shortage of 70 million tons. Recent estimates suggest that climate change and siltation of main reservoirs will reduce the surface water storage capacity by 30% by 2025. The per capita water storage capacity in Pakistan is only 150 m3, compared with more than 5000 m3 in the United States and Australia and 2200 m3 in China. This reduction in surface supplies and consequent decreases in groundwater abstraction will have a serious effect on irrigated agriculture. Supply-side solutions aimed at providing more water will not be available as in the past. Current low productivity in comparison with what has been achieved in other countries under virtually similar conditions points to the enormous potential that exists. To harness this potential, Pakistan needs to invest soon in increasing storage capacity, improving water-use efficiency, and managing surface-water and groundwater resources in a sustainable way to avoid problems of soil salinization and waterlogging. Building capacity between individuals and organizations, and strengthening institutions are key elements for sustaining irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin. Keywords: Water management, food security, irrigated agriculture, salinity, water-logging, Indus Basin, Pakistan Citedy By: 50 Disaster risks and disaster management policies and practices in Pakistan: A critical analysis of Disaster Management Act 2010 of Pakistan Author: Z Ahmed Journal: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ,Vol.4 (), 2013--Pages 15-20 Abstract: Human suffering has multiplied in recent years due to increased frequency and intensity of natural hazards, which are expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Admittedly, risks to humans from natural hazards cannot be eliminated completely, but they can be reduced through systematic approaches such as disaster risks reduction (DRR) approaches that can be scientifically applied for minimising vulnerability and building resilience in society through multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional measures. Considering the importance of DRR approaches in reducing impacts of disasters, the aim of this paper is to analyse the disaster risk and disaster management policies and practices in Pakistan. The objective is to evaluate the Disaster Management Act 2010 in Pakistan (PNDMA 2010). Through critical review of PNDMA 2010, this study has found that the Act emphasises mainly on institution building and action plan development for mitigating disasters in the country. The Act does not directly mention disaster risk reduction and there are no directions with regard to the budgetary mechanisms and extent of funds from disaster risk management (DRM) in the country. The DRM in Pakistan is reactive and there is a need for revision of PDMA 2010 to make it proactive. Keywords: Natural disasters Disaster risk reduction (DRR) Natural hazards Citedy By: 31 Climate change, flooding in South Asia and implications Author: MMQ Mirza Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (), 2011--Pages 95-107 Abstract: South Asia is one of the most flood vulnerable regions in the world. Floods occur often in the region triggered by heavy monsoon precipitation and can cause enormous damages to lives, property, crops and infrastructure. The frequency of extreme floods is on the rise in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Past extreme floods fall within the range of climate variability but frequency, magnitude and extent flooding may increase in South Asia in future due to climate change. Flood risk is sensitive to different levels of warming. For example, in Bangladesh, analysis shows that most of the expected changes in flood depth and extent would occur between 0 and 2°C warming. The three major rivers Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna/Barak will play similar roles in future flooding regimes as they are doing presently. Increases in future flooding can cause extensive damage to rice crops in the monsoon. This may have implications for food security especially of poor women and children. Floods can also impact public health in the flood plains and in the coastal areas. Keywords: Climate change Flooding South Asia Crop damage Food security Citedy By: 112 On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan Author: SH Sajjad, B Hussain, MA Khan, A Raza, B Zaman Journal: Climatic change,Vol.96 (4), 2009--Pages 539-547 Abstract: Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is ??1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT. Keywords: Time Series Data Urban Heat Island Yangtze River Delta Mean Annual Temperature Urban Climate Citedy By: 32 Climate Change in South Asia Author: MVK Sivakumar, R Stefanski Journal: Climate change and food security in South Asia ,Vol. (), 2010--Pages 13-30 Abstract: South Asia is home to over one fifth of the world’s population and is known to be the most disaster prone region in the world. The high rates of ­population growth, and natural resource degradation, with continuing high rates of poverty and food insecurity make South Asia one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. In general, past and present climate trends and ­variability in South Asia can be characterized by increasing air temperatures and there is an increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in South Asia over the last century. Temperature projections for South Asia for the twenty-first century suggest a significant acceleration of warming over that observed in the ­twentieth century. Recent modelling experiments indicate that the warming would be ­significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia. An increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including heat wave and intense precipitation events is projected in South Asia, along with an increase in the inter-annual variability of daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon. The projected impacts of climate change in South Asia will vary across sectors, locations and populations. Temperature rise will negatively impact crop yields in tropical parts of South Asia where these crops are already being grown close to their temperature tolerance threshold. While direct impacts are associated with rise in temperatures, indirect impacts due to water availability and changing soil moisture status and pest and disease incidence are likely to be felt. The most significant impacts are likely to be borne by small-holder rainfed farmers who constitute the majority of farmers in this region and possess low financial and technical capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. The projected impacts of climate change in different parts of South Asia are described. The coping capacity of the rural poor, especially in the marginal areas, is low and there is a need to mainstream the good practices for adaptation to climate change into sustainable development planning in the region. Improved understanding of the climate change impacts, vulnerability and the adaptation practices to cope with climate change could help this process. Keywords: Indian sub-continent, Mangroves, El-Niño, ENSO, Rainfall, ­variability, Productivity, Fisheries, Sea level rise Citedy By: 57 Monitoring spatio-temporal aerosol patterns over Pakistan based on MODIS, TOMS and MISR satellite data and a HYSPLIT model Author: K Alam, S Qureshi, T Blaschke Journal: Atmospheric Environment,Vol.45 (27), 2011--Pages 4641-4651 Abstract: Three different satellite-borne sensors, namely the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and the Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MISR), were used to investigate the spatial and temporal variations of aerosols over several cities in Pakistan. A Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model was used for trajectory analysis in order to reconstruct the origins of air masses and understand the spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations. Recent MODIS aerosol data (2002–2008) and earlier TOMS data (1979–2001) revealed increasing concentrations of aerosols over Pakistan and adjacent areas. Validation of MODIS and MISR derived aerosol optical depths (AODs) with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data for 2007 demonstrated that the MISR data was more accurate when close to the ocean, while the MODIS was more accurate over vegetated areas. The relationship between MODIS and MISR AOD data from 2002 to 2008 was analyzed, revealing a strong correlation between the two datasets. An assessment of seasonal variability in AOD for industrial, urban, semi-urban, rural, and semi-arid areas revealed maximum AOD values during the summer over all the areas investigated. Back trajectory analyses indicated that while winter air masses reaching Pakistan had travelled long distances, summer air masses had travelled only short distances. The higher aerosol concentrations during the summer are interpreted to be a result of the air masses spending more time over land during the summer than they do during the winter. While monsoonal rainfall tends to reduce aerosol concentrations by washing aerosols out of the atmosphere, this effect is mainly restricted to the eastern and south-eastern parts of Pakistan. Keywords: Aerosols, TOMS, MODIS, MISR, AERONET HYSPLIT, AOD, Remote sensing, Pakistan Citedy By: 77 Climate change affecting rice production: the physiological and agronomic basis for possible adaptation strategies Author: R Wassmann, SVK Jagadish, S Heuer, A Ismail Journal: Advances in Agronomy,Vol.101 (), 2009--Pages 59-122 Abstract: This review addresses possible adaptation strategies in rice production to abiotic stresses that will aggravate under climate change: heat (high temperature and humidity), drought, salinity, and submergence. Each stress is discussed regarding the current state of knowledge on damage mechanism for rice plants as well as possible developments in germplasm and crop management technologies to overcome production losses. Higher temperatures can adversely affect rice yields through two principal pathways, namely (i) high maximum temperatures that cause—in combination with high humidity—spikelet sterility and adversely affect grain quality and (ii) increased nighttime temperatures that may reduce assimilate accumulation. On the other hand, some rice cultivars are grown in extremely hot environments, so that the development of rice germplasm with improved heat resistance can capture an enormous genetic pool for this trait. Likewise, drought is a common phenomenon in many rice growing environments, and agriculture research has achieved considerable progress in terms of germplasm improvement and crop management (i.e., water saving techniques) to cope with the complexity of the drought syndrome. Rice is highly sensitive to salinity. Salinity often coincides with other stresses in rice production, namely drought in inland areas or submergence in coastal areas. Submergence tolerance of rice plants has substantially been improved by introgressing the Sub1 gene into popular rice cultivars in many Asian rice growing areas.Finally, the review comprises a comparative assessment of the rice versus other crops related to climate change. The rice crop has many unique features in terms of susceptibility and adaptation to climate change impacts due to its semiaquatic phylogenetic origin. The bulk of global rice supply originates from irrigated systems which are to some extent shielded from immediate drought effects. The buffer effect of irrigation against climate change impacts, however, will depend on nature and state of the respective irrigation system. The envisaged propagation of irrigation water saving techniques will entail benefits for the resilience of rice production systems to future droughts. We conclude that there are considerable risks for rice production stemming from climate change, but that the development of necessary adaptation options can capitalize on an enormous variety of rice production systems in very different climates and on encouraging progress in recent research. Keywords: Citedy By: 279 Pedogenic carbonate proxies for amount and seasonality of precipitation in paleosols Author: GJ Retallack Journal: Geology,Vol.33 (4), 2005--Pages 333-336 Abstract: The depth to carbonate nodular (Bk) horizon in soils (D in cm) is correlated with mean annual precipitation (P in mm), so that Bk horizons are deep in subhumid regions, but shallow in semiarid regions. Previous quantifications of this relationship are unchanged by this new compilation of 807 soils: P = 137.24 + 6.45D + 0.013D2, where R2 = 0.52, and standard error (S.E.) = ±147 mm. In most North American postglacial soils, the Bk horizon is thin and well defined, whereas in monsoonal tropical soils of Pakistan and Kenya, the Bk horizon is thick and diffuse. Data from 675 modern soils define the relationship between the thickness of soil with nodules (T in cm) and mean annual range of precipitation (M in mm difference between monthly means of wettest and driest months): M = 0.79T + 13.71, where R2 = 0.58, and S.E. = ±22 mm). The relationship between carbonate nodule size (S in cm) and soil age (Ain ka) is quantified by 9 radiocarbon-dated soils from Las Cruces, New Mexico: A = 3.92S0.34, where R2 = 0.57, and S.E. = 1.8 k.y. These transfer functions are applied to reconstructing paleoclimatic change from Paleocene–Eocene paleosols of the North Horn Formation and Flagstaff Limestone of Axhandle Canyon, Utah. The terminal Paleocene spike of warmth recorded by fossil plants in nearby Wyoming was coincident with a brief peak in both mean annual precipitation and mean annual range of precipitation in Utah. Keywords: Citedy By: 237 An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database Author: TC Peterson, RS Vose Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,Vol.78 (12), 1997--Pages 2837-2850 Abstract: The Global Historical Climatology Network version 2 temperature database was released in May 1997. This century-scale dataset consists of monthly surface observations from ~7000 stations from around the world. This archive breaks considerable new ground in the field of global climate databases. The enhancements include 1) data for additional stations to improve regional-scale analyses, particularly in previously data-sparse areas; 2) the addition of maximum–minimum temperature data to provide climate information not available in mean temperature data alone; 3) detailed assessments of data quality to increase the confidence in research results; 4) rigorous and objective homogeneity adjustments to decrease the effect of nonclimatic factors on the time series; 5) detailed metadata (e.g., population, vegetation, topography) that allow more detailed analyses to be conducted; and 6) an infrastructure for updating the archive at regular intervals so that current climatic conditions can constantly be put into historical perspective. This paper describes these enhancements in detail. Keywords: Global Climate Laboratory, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina. Citedy By: 0 Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation Author: PK Aggarwal, PK Joshi, JSI Ingram Journal: Environmental Science & Policy,Vol.7 (6), 2004--Pages 487-498 Abstract: The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice–wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions. Keywords: Citedy By: 0 Toward renewed legitimacy? Nuclear power, global warming, and security Author: P Stoett Journal: Global Environmental Politics,Vol.3 (1), 2003--Pages 99-116 Abstract: With calls for the renewal of the nuclear energy industry in the United States and elsewhere, the international political economy of this troubled industry assumes increased importance. Though technical difficulties have plagued the industry for many decades, it is the equally problematic task of establishing public trust on which the article focuses. Arguably, with the advent of widespread concern over global warming, nuclear power offers a low-emission alternative. Yet safety, security, and political concerns color this highly centralized energy source, as well as its export-based political economy. The article traces the history of global nuclear commerce, as well as recent attempts to revive the industry. I suggest that efforts to re-legitimize the state-industry-power complex by way of nuclear commerce and associated discourse may have some success, but this will be tempered by sustained opposition to the centralizing tendencies of nuclear power and continued safety concerns Keywords: Citedy By: 33 Exercising multidisciplinary approach to assess interrelationship between energy use, carbon emission and land use change in a metropolitan city of Pakistan Author: G Ali, V Nitivattananon Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.16 (1), 2012--Pages 775-786 Abstract: Population of two cities in Pakistan has already crossed the 10-million figure and for the rest of the areas in the country populations are also increasing rapidly. Urbanization has boosted the use of energy in the cities and so is greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but the ground situation as to the extent, vulnerability, past trends and future scenarios are not unveiled for the cities of Pakistan. Dearth of data in Pakistan is a huge hindrance to the investigation of energy use and actual GHG emissions. We dared to take steps in addressing this case and put preliminary efforts in compiling baseline sectoral breakdown of energy use, carbon emission and land cover/land use. Furthermore, the relationship of CO2 source and sink is also explored. This study mainly tries to achieve three objectives. The results illustrate that industrial and residential sectors are vibrant consumers of energy and CO2 emitters among all other sectors of the city. Sparse trees in the city and reduced agriculture areas by more than one-half in 2009 compared with those in 1975 are the main reasons for increased energy use and reduced CO2 emissions from agriculture sector as well. However, all the other sectors have increased their CO2 emissions in an escalating trend. The forecast analysis portrays the same trend too. Therefore, there is a need to make policy makers recognize such vulnerable situation of energy use and GHG emissions for them to take proper and timely actions to cope with the threats of climate change which can occur anytime in the very near future. Keywords: CO2 emissions Sink–source relationship Multidisciplinary approach Remote sensing Citedy By: 0 Ice velocity and climate variations for Baltoro Glacier, Pakistan Author: DJ Quincey, L Copland, C Mayer, M Bishop Journal: Journal of Glaciology ,Vol.55 (194), 2009--Pages 1061-1071 Abstract: The recent dynamic behaviour of Karakoram glaciers is expected to differ from that shown by glaciers in the central and eastern Himalaya because of regional variations in precipitation and temperature trends. However, there are insufficient quantitative data to support or confute such hypotheses. We present velocity data covering the period 1993–2008 for Baltoro Glacier, one of the longest glaciers in the Karakoram. Velocity measurements were made using cross-correlation feature tracking applied to European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS-1 and -2) and Envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) data, supplemented by differential global positioning system (DGPS) measurements. We find a gradual acceleration of the glacier during the early 2000s, in particular during winter months. Multi-seasonal data reveal a large difference between summer and winter flow characteristics, but only in the upper ablation zone. Summer 2005 was a particularly dynamic period following from the heavy winter snowfall of 2004, indicating the importance of basal meltwater availability for glacier flow. Transverse velocity profiles indicate that Baltoro Glacier undergoes ‘block’ flow across much of the upper ablation zone during the summer, which we interpret as evidence of widespread basal sliding. The DGPS data confirm the rapid increase in flow detected during 2005. Modelled climatic data reveal decreasing summer temperatures and increasing precipitation over the study period, helping to explain the observed dynamic variations and their differences from glaciers elsewhere in the Himalaya. Keywords: Citedy By: 78 Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia Author: M Lal Journal: Regional Environmental Change,Vol.11 (), 2011--Pages 79-94 Abstract: One of the targets of the United Nations ‘Millennium Development Goals’ adopted in 2000 is to cut in half the number of people who are suffering from hunger between 1990 and 2015. However, crop yield growth has slowed down in much of the world because of declining investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural infrastructure and increasing water scarcity. New challenges to food security are posed by accelerated climatic change. Considerable uncertainties remain as to when, where and how climate change will affect agricultural production. Even less is known about how climate change might influence other aspects that determine food security, such as accessibility of food for various societal groups and the stability of food supply. This paper presents the likely impacts of thermal and hydrological stresses as a consequence of projected climate change in the future potential agriculture productivity in South Asia based on the crop simulation studies with a view to identify critical climate thresholds for sustained food productivity in the region. The study suggests that, on an aggregate level, there might not be a significant impact of global warming on food production of South Asia in the short term (<2°C; until 2020s), provided water for irrigation is available and agricultural pests could be kept under control. The increasing frequency of droughts and floods would, however, continue to seriously disrupt food supplies on year to year basis. In long term (2050s and beyond), productivity of Kharif crops would decline due to increased climate variability and pest incidence and virulence. Production of Rabi crops is likely to be more seriously threatened in response to 2°C warming. The net cereal production in South Asia is projected to decline at least between 4 and 10% under the most conservative climate change projections (a regional warming of 3°C) by the end of this century. In terms of the reference to UNFCCC Article 2 on dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system, the critical threshold for sustained food productivity in South Asia appears to be a rise in surface air temperature of ~2°C and a marginal decline in water availability for irrigation or decrease in rainfall during the cropping season. Keywords: Climatic change and food security South Asia Crop simulation models Net cereal production Water availability for irrigation Citedy By: 52 Turning the tide: recognizing climate change refugees in international law Author: A Williams Journal: Law & Policy,Vol.30 (4), 2008--Pages 502-529 Abstract: Many of the debates surrounding the environmental, social, and economic implications of climate change are now well known. However, there is increasing concern over the extent to which those suffering displacement or forced migration as a result of climate change are protected. This article seeks to highlight the plight of such individuals and suggests how the current protection gap might be remedied. Present legal structures, such as the Refugee Convention and the framework for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), prove largely inadequate having been constructed for different purposes and being limited in their application. The alternative proposed in this article is a regionally oriented regime operating under the auspices of the UN Climate Change Framework. While both the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Protocol currently call for regional cooperation in respect of adaptation activities, it is argued there should be an explicit recognition of so-called climate change refugees in the post-Kyoto agreement that allows for, and facilitates, the development of regional programs to address the problem. Employing such a strategy would remedy the current protection gap that exists within the international legal system, while allowing states to respond and engage with climate change displacement in the most regionally appropriate manner Keywords: Citedy By: 172 Prospects for secure and sustainable electricity supply for Pakistan Author: T Muneer, M Asif Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.11 (4), 2007--Pages 654-671 Abstract: Fossil fuel reserves are diminishing rapidly across the world, intensifying the stress on existing reserves day-by-day due to increased demand. Not only that, fossil fuels, presently contributing to 80% of world primary energy, are inflicting enormous impacts on environment. Energy sector has a key role in this regard since energy during its production, distribution and consumption is responsible for producing environmentally harmful substances. There is an urgent need for a quicker switch over of energy systems from conventional to renewables that are sustainable and can meet the present and projected world energy demand. Hydrogen, in the capacity of energy vector and storage medium is expected to be the optimum solution for intermittency and storage of energy produced by renewables. Within the context of Pakistan solar and wind power are two of the most promising renewables.In this article, the current energy consumption for Pakistan is presented and the issue of security of electrical energy supply is discussed. Furthermore, the prospects for a large-scale switch over to renewables are also addressed and the relevant economies and underpinning rationale provided. It has been found that solar energy is a much more economical choice for Pakistan as compared to wind energy-respective costs for solar and wind energy are (US cents/kWh) 20 and 77. This is due to the fact barring the four monsoon months, the average wind speed for the remaining 8 months does not cross an economic threshold. On the contrary, it was found that solar energy has a fairly stable and consistent availability. Keywords: Sustainability, Renewable, Solar energy, Wind power, Photovoltaic, Hydrogen Citedy By: 77 An introduction to the IBMR, a hydro-economic model for climate change impact assessment in Pakistan's Indus River basin Author: YCE Yang, CM Brown, WH Yu, A Savitsky Journal: Water International,Vol.38 (5), 2013--Pages Abstract: The Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) is a hydro-agro-economic optimization model for agricultural investment planning across Pakistan’s Indus Basin provinces. This study describes IBMR-2012, an update and modification of the model that reflects the current agro-economic conditions in Pakistan for the purpose of evaluating the impact of climate change on water allocation and food security. Results of hydro-climatic parameter sensitivity and basin-wide and provincial-level climate change impacts on crop productions are presented. The study finds that compared to Punjab, Sindh faces both significantly larger climate change impacts on agriculture and higher uncertainty regarding climate change impacts in the future. Keywords: Indus Basin Model Revised, Pakistan, water allocation, GCM uncertainty, climate Citedy By: 23 Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model Author: T Zhu, C Ringler, MM Iqbal, TB Sulser Journal: Water International ,Vol.38 (5), 2013--Pages Abstract: Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from –12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food. Keywords: agriculture, irrigation, climate change, food security, Pakistan Citedy By: 13 Greenhouse effect reduction by recovering energy from waste landfills in Pakistan Author: MJS Zuberi, SF Ali Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.44 (), 2015--Pages 117-131 Abstract: Landfills all around the world are one of the major sources that contribute towards global warming and climate change. Although landfilling should be prioritized last in the waste management hierarchy due to highest greenhouse gas emissions as compared to other waste management systems it is still very common around the world. In this study, methane emissions are estimated by applying First Order Decay model to landfills in Pakistan over the latest data available by Pakistan Environmental Protection Agency. Results demonstrate that nearly 14.18 Gg of methane is emitted from the landfills in Pakistan each year. By combusting this methane in the form of biogas collected from the landfills as a waste management scheme we can reduce greenhouse effect up to ~88%. Same percentage is observed when we apply the similar analysis over the potentially improved practice. Also, Pakistan is facing severe economic crises due to continuous increasing gap between energy demand and supply. Demand is increasing exponentially while supply is observed to remain constant over the last few years due to frozen capacity in spite of having significant renewable/alternate energy resources. Current electricity shortfall has reached up to 6000 MW. Present operational landfills in Pakistan can only contribute up to ~0.1% to cater the total deficit which does not make any significant difference but if 75% of the total waste generated today is collected and 50% of it landfilled then Pakistan has the potential to produce ~83.17 MW of power that can contribute up to 1.4% to overcome the current power shortage. The outcomes of this paper may also be applicable to other developing countries having similar resources. Keywords: Landfills, Renewable energy Biogas Greenhouse effect Pakistan Citedy By: 34 The linkages between deforestation, energy and growth for environmental degradation in Pakistan Author: K Ahmed, M Shahbaz, A Qasim, W Journal: Ecological Indicators,Vol.49 (), 2015--Pages 95-103 Abstract: This study explores the validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for Pakistan using time series data from 1980–2013 with deforestation as an indicator (dependent variable) for environmental degradation, and four independent variables (economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and population) were also examined. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the VECM–Granger causality test were applied. The results confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables both in long- and short-run paths. However, the diminishing negative impact of economic growth on deforestation in the long-run confirms the EKC hypothesis for deforestation in Pakistan. Moreover, economic growth and energy consumption Granger cause deforestation. A bidirectional causal effect is detected between economic growth and energy consumption, however, in the long-run, economic growth and trade openness Granger cause energy consumption. This study was designed with several significant tests to ensure the reliability of results for policy use and to contribute to future studies on the environment-growth-energy nexus. Keywords: Deforestation, Energy Consumption, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Co integration Citedy By: 0 Recent mean temperature trends in Pakistan and links with teleconnection patterns Author: S del Rio, M Anjum Iqbal, A Cano?Ortiz Journal: International Journal of Climatology,Vol.33 (2), 2013--Pages 277-290 Abstract: Monthly, seasonal and annual trends in mean temperatures have been analysed in this study using data from 37 weather stations from the Pakistan Meteorological Department with records from 1952 to 2009. Statistical tests including Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall were applied to each of the 37 stations in order to determine the sign and slopes of trends and their statistical significance. The study reveals that the temperature has generally increased in Pakistan at all time scales analysed over the past few decades. March and the pre-monsoon season were the periods with the highest number of weather stations showing statistical significance, and also with the highest magnitudes of trends. Mean annual temperature increased around 0.36 °C/decade. This rise in temperature is slightly higher than other results found for Pakistan. The association between temperatures and certain teleconnection patterns, as well as the influence of the urban effect, might be among the causes of the trends found in this study. The largest number of correlations between mean temperatures and teleconnection patterns was found in March, April and May with NAO, ENSO and NCP, respectively. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may also have an influence on the temperatures of certain months in the monsoon season and particularly in August. At a seasonal resolution, NAO and NCP may control temperatures in the pre-monsoon season. The lowest number of sites exhibiting correlations was found in winter and in the post-monsoon seasons Keywords: Citedy By: 26 Research on global changes in Pakistan Author: R Roohi Journal: Developments in Earth Surface Processes,Vol.10 (), 2007--Pages 329-340 Abstract: The research on climate change in Pakistan is in its initial stages and has started with the commencement of the new century. Realizing the importance and potential impact of climate change on natural resources and population and their sustainable development, several projects have been initiated in collaboration with international institutions such as APN, ICIMOD, UNEP, START, and others. The focus of these initiatives is on the impact of climate change on various components of the complex system such as water resources, ecology, agriculture, socio-economics, and others. So far these activities have been centered on the resource inventories/vulnerability assessment and identification of potential threats based on which coping mechanisms could be identified and policy recommendations could be formulated. Using historical climatic data it has been concluded that since 1931 in general the extreme temperatures in the arid environments have increased while in sub-humid and humid environments these have been decreased. Several studies have been carried out to use the simulation models for climate change impact on water resources, forest ecosystems, and socioeconomic conditions. Recently an inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush – Karakoram – Himalayan (HKKH) region of Pakistan has been completed. A Global Change Impact Study Center has also been established. Keywords: Citedy By: 15 Diagnosing irrigation performance and water productivity through satellite remote sensing and secondary data in a large irrigation system of Pakistan Author: MD Ahmad, H Turral, A Nazeer Journal: Agricultural Water Management,Vol.96 (4), 2009--Pages 551-564 Abstract: Irrigation policy makers and managers need information on the irrigation performance and productivity of water at various scales to devise appropriate water management strategies, in particular considering dwindling water availability, further threats from climate change, and continually rising population and food demand. In practice it is often difficult to access sufficient water supply and use data to determine crop water consumption and irrigation performance. Energy balance techniques using remote sensing data have been developed by various researchers over the last 20 years, and can be used as a tool to directly estimate actual evapo-transpiration, i.e., water consumption. This study demonstrates how remote sensing-based estimates of water consumption and water stress combined with secondary agricultural production data can provide better estimates of irrigation performance, including water productivity, at a variety of scales than alternative options. A principle benefit of the described approach is that it allows identification of areas where agricultural performance is less than potential, thereby providing insights into where and how irrigation systems can be managed to improve overall performance and increase water productivity in a sustainable manner. To demonstrate the advantages, the approach was applied in Rechna Doab irrigation system of Pakistan’s Punjab Province. Remote sensing-based indicators reflecting equity, adequacy, reliability and water productivity were estimated. Inter- and intra-irrigation subdivision level variability in irrigation performance, associated factors and improvement possibilities are discussed. Keywords: Actual evapo-transpiration, Equity, Adequacy, Reliability, Water productivity, Surface energy balance Citedy By: 89 Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems Author: UB Shrestha, S Gautam, KS Bawa Journal: PLoS One,Vol.7 (5), 2012--Pages Abstract: Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ?20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5°C with an average increase of 0.06°C yr?1. The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr?1. Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr?1 and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr?1, but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters.This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Keywords: Citedy By: 177 Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium Author: ER Cook, KJ Anchukaitis, BM Buckley Journal: Science,Vol.328 (5977), 2010--Pages 486-489 Abstract: The Asian monsoon system affects more than half of humanity worldwide, yet the dynamical processes that govern its complex spatiotemporal variability are not sufficiently understood to model and predict its behavior, due in part to inadequate long-term climate observations. Here we present the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), a seasonally resolved gridded spatial reconstruction of Asian monsoon drought and pluvials over the past millennium, derived from a network of tree-ring chronologies. MADA provides the spatiotemporal details of known historic monsoon failures and reveals the occurrence, severity, and fingerprint of previously unknown monsoon megadroughts and their close linkages to large-scale patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures. MADA thus provides a long-term context for recent monsoon variability that is critically needed for climate modeling, prediction, and attribution. Keywords: Citedy By: 635 Changes in precipitation extremes over arid to semiarid and subhumid Punjab, Pakistan Author: F Abbas, A Ahmad, M Safeeq, S Ali, F Saleem Journal: Theoretical and applied ,Vol.116 (3-4), 2014--Pages 671-680 Abstract: Asymmetrical monsoons during the recent past have resulted into spatially variable and devastating floods in South Asia. Analysis of historic precipitation extremes record may help in formulating mitigation strategies at local level. Eleven indices of precipitation extremes were evaluated using RClimDex and daily time series data for analysis period of 1981–2010 from five representative cities across Punjab province of Pakistan. The indices include consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, number of days above daily average precipitation, number of days with precipitation ?10 mm, number of days with precipitation ?20 mm, very wet days, extremely wet days, simple daily intensity index, maximum 1-day precipitation quantity, maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation quantity, and annual total wet-day precipitation. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope extremes were used to detect trends in indices. Droughts and excessive precipitation were dictated by elevation from mean sea level with prolonged dry spells in southern Punjab and vice versa confirming spatial trends for precipitation extremes. However, no temporal trend was observed for any of the indices. Summer in the region is the wettest season depicting contribution of monsoons during June through August toward devastating floods in the region. Keywords: Precipitation Extreme Heavy Precipitation Analysis Period Precipitation Index Punjab Province Citedy By: 30 Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia Author: AMG Klein Tank, TC Peterson Journal: Journal of Geological Research,Vol.111 (16), 2006--Pages Abstract: Changes in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 116 meteorological stations in central and south Asia. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature extremes indicate warming of both the cold tail and the warm tail of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature between 1961 and 2000. For precipitation, most regional indices of wet extremes show little change in this period as a result of low spatial trend coherence with mixed positive and negative station trends. Relative to the changes in the total amounts, there is a slight indication of disproportionate changes in the precipitation extremes. Stations with near-complete data for the longer period of 1901–2000 suggest that the recent trends in extremes of minimum temperature are consistent with long-term trends, whereas the recent trends in extremes of maximum temperature are part of multidecadal climate variability. Keywords: Citedy By: 313 Solar assisted, pre-cooled hybrid desiccant cooling system for Pakistan Author: A Khalid, M Mahmood, M Asif, T Muneer Journal: Renewable Energy,Vol.34 (1), 2009--Pages 151-157 Abstract: This work presents results of experimental and simulation study of a solar assisted pre-cooled hybrid desiccant cooling (PHDCS) system for air conditioning applications in Pakistan. Tests were conducted on a gas fired pre-cooled hybrid desiccant cooling test rig for high humidity Karachi weather. Using measured data sets from the test rig, validation of TRYNSIS model of the same cooling system was undertaken. Four modes or configurations of the cooling system were simulated for Karachi and Lahore climatic conditions. Lahore simulation results demonstrated that better COPp can be achieved using indirect evaporative cooler for pre-cooling and direct evaporative cooler for post-cooling of air. Life cycle assessment of solar air collector was performed and energy and environmental payback periods were found to be equal to 1 and 1.5 years, respectively. An economic assessment of the solar collector revealed a payback period of about 14 years. Keywords: Citedy By: 57 Modelling climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan Author: W Nasim, H Belhouchette, A Ahmad Journal: Outlook on Agricultur,Vol.45 (1), 2016--Pages Abstract: Climate change, food security, water scarcity and environmental sustainability have all become major global challenges. As a consequence, improving resource use efficiency is an important aspect of increasing crop productivity. Crop models are increasingly being used as tools for supporting strategic and tactical decision making under varying agro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. These tools can also support climate change assessment and the evaluation of adaptation strategies to limit the adverse impacts of climate change. In this paper, the authors report on a case study conducted to assess the potential impact of climate change on grain yield in sunflower under arid, semi-arid and subhumid conditions in the Punjab region of Pakistan. Experimental data obtained between 2008 and 2009 were used for model evaluation. The study focused on the impacts of incremental temperature change on sunflower production. The modelling suggests that grain yield could reduce by up to 15% by the 2020s with an average increase in temperature of +1°C, and by up to 25% if temperatures increased by up to 2°C for the 2050s. Adaptation strategies showed that, if the crop were sown between 14 days (for 2020) and 21 days (for 2050) earlier than the current date (last week in February), yield losses could potentially be reduced. Keywords: agro-climatic zones, agro-meteorology, Helianthus annuus L, DSSAT crop model Citedy By: 10 Changing trends of thermal extremes in Pakistan Author: M Zahid, G Rasul Journal: Climatic change,Vol.113 (3-4), 2012--Pages 883-896 Abstract: Extreme events have gained considerable scientific attention recently due to their potentially catastrophic impacts. Heat waves are thought to be more pronounced now in most parts of the world, and especially in South Asia, but doubts remain. The aim of this study is to calculate the frequency and intensity of heat waves in South Asia, focusing on Pakistan and identifying the regions within Pakistan that are most vulnerable to heat waves. Analyses have been performed both at provincial and country levels from 1961 to 2009. The provincial level analysis shows positive trends for heat waves of magnitudes ?40°C and ?45°C for 5 and 7 consecutive days. Events of magnitude ?40°C and ?45°C for 10 consecutive days also increased in frequency in Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. These regions are therefore considered to be the regions most vulnerable to heat wave events in Pakistan. The Balochistan region shows a consistently increasing trend throughout the study period, which may lead to more frequent drought in the future. The country level analysis indicates an increase in the frequency of 5 and 7 consecutive days heat waves at all defined temperature thresholds. The 10-days heat waves spells show a slight increase at ?40°C and no significant change at ?45°C. The Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir areas reported no events at ?45°C for 5, 7 and 10 continuous days. It is anticipated that with a long term rise in temperatures around the globe, heat waves will become more frequent and intense in all parts of the world, including Pakistan. Keywords: Heat Wave, ENSO Event Heat, Summer Heat Wave, Severe Heat Wave Citedy By: 16 Stratigraphic response and mammalian dispersal during initial India-Asia collision: Evidence from the Ghazij Formation, Balochistan, Pakistan Author: WC Clyde, IH Khan, PD Gingerich Journal: Geology,Vol.31 (12), 2003--Pages 1097-1100 Abstract: Initial continental collision between India and Asia is thought to have caused significant changes to global climate and biota, yet its timing and biogeographic consequences are uncertain. Structural and geophysical evidence indicates initial collision during the early Paleogene, but sedimentary evidence of this has been controversial owing to the intense deformation and metamorphism along the suture zone. Modern orders of mammals that appeared abruptly on northern continents coincident with the global warming event marking the Paleocene-Eocene boundary are hypothesized to have originated on the Indian subcontinent, but no relevant paleontological information has been available to test this idea. Here we present new paleomagnetic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic evidence to show that the lower Eocene Ghazij Formation of western Pakistan records continental sedimentation and mammalian dispersal associated with initial India-Asia collision. Our results are consistent with the initial collision occurring near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, but modern orders of mammals appeared later in Indo-Pakistan and thus did not likely originate on the Indian subcontinent. Keywords: Citedy By: 66 Evaluation of wind power production prospective and Weibull parameter estimation methods for Babaurband, Sindh Pakistan Author: SF Khahro, K Tabbassum, AM Soomro, L Dong… Journal: Energy conversion and Management,Vol.78 (), 2014--Pages 956-967 Abstract: Pakistan is currently experiencing an acute shortage of energy and urgently needs new sources of affordable energy that could alleviate the misery of the energy starved masses. At present the government is increasing not only the conventional energy sources like hydel and thermal but also focusing on the immense potential of renewable energy sources like; solar, wind, biogas, waste-to-energy etc. The recent economic crisis worldwide, global warming and climate change have also emphasized the need for utilizing economic feasible energy sources having lowest carbon emissions. Wind energy, with its sustainability and low environmental impact, is highly prominent. The aim of this paper is to explore the wind power production prospective of one of the sites in south region of Pakistan. It is worth mentioning here that this type of detailed analysis is hardly done for any location in Pakistan. Wind power densities and frequency distributions of wind speed at four different altitudes along with estimated wind power expected to be generated through commercial wind turbines is calculated. Analysis and comparison of 5 numerical methods is presented in this paper to determine the Weibull scale and shape parameters for the available wind data. The yearly mean wind speed of the considered site is 6.712 m/s and has power density of 310 W/m2 at 80 m height with high power density during April to August (highest in May with wind speed 9.595 m/s and power density 732 W/m2). Economic evaluation, to exemplify feasibility of installing wind turbines, is also done. The estimated cost of per kWh of electricity from wind is calculated as 0.0263 US/kWh. Thus the candidate site is recommended for some small stand-alone systems as well as for wind farm.
Keywords: Wind energy, Power density function, Weibull distribution, Frequency distribution
Citedy By: 0
Techniques to implement in green data centres to achieve energy efficiency and reduce global warming  effects
Author: M Uddin, AA Rahman
Journal: International Journal of Global Warming,Vol.3 (4), 2011--Pages
Abstract: Energy demand in data centre industry is growing rapidly as computing technology changes and Information Technology (IT) professionals seek to maximise performance of data centres. A multitude of methods have been used to estimate and quantify energy intensity. Rising energy costs, continuing concerns about global economic downturn and global warming effects has leaded ways for energy efficient data centres. The goal of computer system design has been shifted to power and energy efficiency. This paper highlights strategies and techniques that provide energy savings in data centre like reducing frequent hardware purchases, power/cooling cost reductions, green metrics, shrinking data storage, workload consolidation and reducing physical servers.
Keywords: data centre, green IT, energy efficiency, global warming, virtualisation, metrics
Citedy By: 28
South Asian monsoon climate change and radiocarbon in the Arabian Sea during early and middle Holocene
Author: M Staubwasser, F Sirocko, PM Grootes
Journal: Paleoceanography,Vol.17 (4), --Pages
Abstract: The 14C ages of planktonic foraminifers Globigerinoides sacculifer bracketing the Younger Dryas in a ?18O record of Globigerinoides ruber from a laminated sediment core on the Pakistani continental margin suggest that surface reservoir ages in the Arabian Sea were in excess of 1000 years during the deglaciation. A least squares error fit of a detailed 14C chronology to the (atmospheric) tree ring record gave variable early Holocene reservoir ages between 780 and 1120 years, well above the prebomb value of 640 years. Mid-Holocene reservoir ages are less well constrained but were probably closer to the prebomb value. The method used to fit individual core sections to the tree ring record was designed to require only a rough a priori estimate of the time spans, which in the core presented here were taken from each section's range of 14C ages. A significant 220-year quasi-oscillation was present in the ?18O record during the early Holocene but not thereafter. This frequency and amplitude pattern resembles an early Holocene 207- to 227-year oscillation previously observed in the atmospheric 14C record, which is generally interpreted as reflecting solar irradiance variability. An early Holocene climate event at 8150–8400 calendar years B.P. observed elsewhere within the Asian-East African monsoon system was again found in our record, suggesting a reduction in precipitation over NW India and Pakistan
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Citedy By: 108
Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle
Author: SBKapnick, TLDelworth, MAshfaq, SMalyshev
Journal: Nature Geoscience  ,Vol.7 (), 2014--Pages 834-840
Abstract: The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1,2,3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1,4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.
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Citedy By: 67
Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century
Author: M Ashfaq, Y Shi, W Tung, RJ Trapp
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.36 (1), 2009--Pages
Abstract: We used a high-resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large-scale monsoon flow and suppression of the dominant intraseasonal oscillatory modes were instrumental in the overall weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Such changes in monsoon dynamics could have substantial impacts by decreasing summer precipitation in key areas of South Asia
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Citedy By: 185
The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia
Author: JS Bandara, Y Cai
Journal: Economic Analysis and Policy,Vol.44 (4), 2014--Pages 451-465
Abstract: South Asia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impact of climate change. Empirical studies carried out in recent years using the partial equilibrium approach suggest that climate change-induced yield losses in agriculture are becoming a serious concern. In this study, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to examine the impact of changes in crop productivity due to climate change on food prices and food security in South Asia, focusing on five large countries in the region, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Our results suggest that there is likely to be a significant negative impact on food production and prices in all South Asian countries due to climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes. The results further suggest that countries in this region are likely to face problems of food security given that nearly half of the world’s poor reside in this region and agriculture plays an important role in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment generation in the region. The results support the need for policy analysts and policy makers in the region to develop climate change adaptation measures that address the likely negative consequences of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses.
Keywords: Climate change, Food security, Computable general equilibrium
Citedy By: 38
Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions
Author: DR Archer, N Forsythe, HJ Fowler
Journal: Hydrology and Earth ,Vol.14 (8), 2010--Pages
Abstract: Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation. The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 100
Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries: the Asia-Pacific region
Author: Q Luo, E Lin
Journal: Climatic Change,Vol.43 (4), 1999--Pages 729-743
Abstract: During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable.
Keywords: Climate Change Climate Condition Crop Yield Climate Variability Agricultural Activity
Citedy By: 57
Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin
Author: HJ Fowler, DR Archer
Journal: Journal of Climate,Vol.19 (), 2006--Pages 4276-4293
Abstract: Temperature data for seven instrumental records in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analyzed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 1961–2000 and compared with neighboring mountain regions and the Indian subcontinent. Strong contrasts are found between the behavior of winter and summer temperatures and between maximum and minimum temperatures. Winter mean and maximum temperature show significant increases while mean and minimum summer temperatures show consistent decline. Increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) is consistently observed in all seasons and the annual dataset, a pattern shared by much of the Indian subcontinent but in direct contrast to both GCM projections and the narrowing of DTR seen worldwide. This divergence commenced around the middle of the twentieth century and is thought to result from changes in large-scale circulation patterns and feedback processes associated with the Indian monsoon.The impact of observed seasonal temperature trend on runoff is explored using derived regression relationships. Decreases of ?20% in summer runoff in the rivers Hunza and Shyok are estimated to have resulted from the observed 1°C fall in mean summer temperature since 1961, with even greater reductions in spring months. The observed downward trend in summer temperature and runoff is consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of Karakoram glaciers, in contrast to widespread decay and retreat in the eastern Himalayas. This suggests that the western Himalayas are showing a different response to global warming than other parts of the globe.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 309
Relationship between extreme temperature and electricity demand in Pakistan
Author: M Ali, MJ Iqbal, M Sharif
Journal: International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Vol.4 (36), 2013--Pages
Abstract: Nowadays, different sectors of the economy are being significantly affected by the weather vagaries. Electricity market is one of the most sensitive sectors, due to the fact that electricity demand is connected to the numerous climatic variables, especially the atmospheric temperature. In this paper we have deduced the link between electricity consumption and mean monthly maximum temperature index in Pakistan, as a case study. ARIMA time series forecast model is developed for the temperature index. The forecast values of mean monthly maximum temperature shows an increasing trend. Linear trend model for electricity consumption is also developed as a function of temperature. Electricity consumption reveals a significant trend due to increase in temperature and socio- economic factors. The monthly behavior of our forecast values depicts that the electricity consumption is more for summer season, and this demand will be highest (6785.6 GWh) in July 2020, due to rise in temperature. Forecast model reveals that the electricity consumption (EC) and mean monthly maximum temperature are increasing with the passage of time.
Keywords: Maximum temperature index,  Electricity consumption,  Time series modelling,  Forecast model
Citedy By: 19
Greener energy: Issues and challenges for Pakistan—Biomass energy prospective
Author: AW Bhutto, AA Bazmi, G Zahedi
Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.15 (6), 2011--Pages 3207-3219
Abstract: Diversification of fuel sources is imperative to address the energy security, climate change, and sustainable development issues; therefore, it is essential to address the energy crisis through the extensive utilization of abundant renewable energy resources, such as biomass energy, solar energy, wind energy and geothermal energy. Improving energy services for poor households in developing countries remains one of the most pressing challenges facing the development community. Earlier studies suggest in South Asia the households are likely to follow the energy ladder comprising fuels like dung, crop residue, firewood, kerosene, gobar gas, LPG, and electricity for cooking purposes. Evidence suggests that while it is possible to observe such transition in urban and semi-urban areas, the change is very slow in rural areas. In rural Pakistan, the access to commercial energy resources is limited, the majority of the households still heavily rely on traditional methods of using wood, animal waste and crop waste for domestic fuel needs. Efficiencies of use are very low and most of the potential is wasted because of non-scientific conventional technologies. Consequently there is an obligatory need to develop modern bio-energy technologies since renewable resources may serve to supplement the long-term energy needs of Pakistan to a significant level. Though the bio-resource base of Pakistan is substantial, its contribution to useful energy is low. In this paper we called attention to issues and challenges in biomass utilization for energy in Pakistan in context of sustainable development. This paper has identified areas in Pakistan where there is considerable scope to modernize biomass energy production delivery systems to provide varied energy carriers such as electricity, industrial and domestic fuel and gases. Barriers are examined over the whole biomass energy spectrum and policy issue and institutional roles and responsibilities are discussed.
Keywords: Green energy, Biomass, Modern bioenergy, Sustainable development, Pakistan
Citedy By: 0
Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region
Author: DH Kazmi, J Li, G Rasul, J Tong, G Ali…
Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology ,Vol.120 (1-2), 2015--Pages 341-350
Abstract: Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961–1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.
Keywords: Statistical Downscaling Climate Impact Study Scenario Family Maximum Temperature Data Decadal Anomaly
Citedy By: 15
Projected climate change in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region by using the high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS
Author: A Kulkarni, S Patwardhan, KK Kumar, K Ashok
Journal: Mountain Research and Development ,Vol.3 (2), 2013--Pages 142-151
Abstract: The Hindu Kush–Himalayan (HKH) region is characterized by a variety of climatic conditions from tropical to alpine. It has been documented that the rates of warming in the HKH region are significantly higher than the global average and that the warming is occurring at much higher rates in the high-altitude regions than in the low-altitude regions. Mountainous environments are considered sensitive indicators of climate change. Hence this study examined the potential impact of global warming on the HKH region by applying Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to 3 subregions: the western, central, and eastern Himalaya. The physical mechanisms that drive warming are different for the 3 regions, and the western Himalaya has 2 major rainy seasons, whereas the central and eastern Himalaya have only one. This study therefore focused on the common rainy season (June–September), during which all 3 regions receive the highest proportion of their annual rainfall. The 3 PRECIS simulations that correspond to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B emissions scenario were carried out for a continuous period from 1961 to 2098. They were validated with high-resolution (0.25° latitude × 0.25° longitude) data provided by the Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the Water Resources (APHRODITE) project and by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The model was reasonably effective in simulating the monsoon climate over the HKH region. The climate projections were examined over the short (2011–2040), medium (2041–2070), and long term (2071–2098). The model projections indicate that significant warming will occur throughout the HKH region toward the end of the 21st century. Summer monsoon precipitation is expected to be 20–40% higher in 2071–2098 than it was in the baseline period (1961–1990). The 3 Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations show large differences in projections in the western Himalaya.
Keywords: Climate change, monsoon, regional climate model simulated projections, Hindu Kush–Himalayas
Citedy By: 51
Trend analysis of January temperature in Pakistan over the period of 1961-2006: Geographical Perspective
Author: I Ahmad, S Zhaobo, D Weitao
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology ,Vol.7 (13), 2010--Pages 11-22
Abstract: Based on monthly data from 54 ground stations over the period of 1961 to 2006, the trend of January temperature has been analyzed in Pakistan and its different regions by statistical method. Tools of FORTRAN and GrADS have been used for computation and mapping. Like other subtropical regions of Asia, also January represents core monthof the winter season in Pakistan. Based on analysis, the January temperature has been increased by about 0.6oC at national level in the study period. However, this change in temperature varies from region to region and decade to decade in Pakistan. In order to know the regional detail of temperature tendency, schematically Pakistan is dividedinto five regions. The northern parts, southwestern parts comprised of Balochistan Plateau, the upper and lower Indus plains have the warming trend but surprisingly northwestern hilly areas of the study domain have cooling trend in January. Furthermore, the northern and western rugged territories of the country show larger interannual temperature variability in January than plains of the country. A cool phase in 1970s, warm phases in 1980s, 1990s and onward is obvious. The study put emphasis on the decadal and regional spatial distribution of temperature anomalies in the month of January.
Keywords: January, warming trend, decadal variation, regional trend, spatial distribution, rugged
Citedy By: 0
Recent water requirement of cotton crop in Pakistan
Author: G Naheed, G Rasul
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.6 (12), 2010--Pages 75-84
Abstract: Cotton is one of the foremost crops which are grown in the kharif season and it plays a very important role in Pakistan’s economy, around two third of the country’s export earnings are from the cotton. Like all crops, a cotton plant's water requirement vary by the age as well as the environment it grows in. The dryer and hotter the environment, the more water the plant requires. Cotton is very drought tolerant and uses about the same amount of water as other crops like millet and sorghum etc. Cotton is mainly grown in Punjab and Sindh as it likes hot and dry climate . FAO-modified Penmen Monteith method was used to estimate the water requirement of cotton crop by using the climatic data (1971-2000) of mean daily temperature, relative humidity, relative sunshine hours and wind speed of sixteen meteorological stations of Pakistan. Precipitation data was used to calculate the supplementary water requirement to compare the deficit .After analysis it was observed that only the upper parts of Punjab cotton may be sown under rainfed conditions but it is very rare in this area. In central Punjab, cotton may not be sown under rainfed conditions without supplementary irrigation in May. In southern Punjab and Sindh regions, cotton requires supplementary irrigation throughout its life cycle. Therefore, proper irrigation is required to fulfill the water needs of the cotton crop throughout its life cycle for successful growth. It has also been seen that water requirement has also increased in recent decades relative to the change occurred in climate .Water demand of the atmosphere which is closely related to the thermal regime has followed the warming trend of climate. Following the similar methods which were incorporated in the past, the recent requirement of water for Cotton will not only provide the quantitative assessment of irrigation water needs but also serve to take adaptation measures for coping the challenges of climate change ensuring sustainable crop production
Keywords:
Citedy By: 17
SPOT multispectral analysis for producing supraglacial debris load estimates for Batura glacier, Pakistan
Author: MP Bishop, JF Shroder Jr, JL Ward
Journal: Geocarto International,Vol.10 (4), 1995--Pages
Abstract: SPOT multispectral and panchromatic data were evaluated to determine their utility to detect debris?load characteristics of the Batura Glacier located in the Karakoram Himalaya. Debris?depth measurements, surface samples, and ground photography were obtained and used with satellite?derived information to produce supraglacial debris?load and discharge estimates. Visual analysis of panchromatic data indicated that structural characteristics of the glacier exhibited unique textures associated with surface structure characteristics. Multispectral analysis revealed that stratified unsupervised classification of principal components can be used to produce classifications depicting supraglacial lithology and shallow debris?load variability. Debris?load discharge estimates ranged from 48–97 x 103 m3 yr1. These results indicate that SPOT multispectral data may be used to produce reasonable quantitative estimates of debris?load characteristics for glacier mass balance and regional denudation studies
Keywords:
Citedy By: 52
Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable?
Author: PJ Webster, VE Toma, HM Kim
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.38 (4), 2011--Pages
Abstract: During July 2010, a series of monsoonal deluges over northern Pakistan resulted in catastrophic flooding, loss of life and property and an agricultural crisis that may last for years. Was the rainfall abnormal compared to previous years? Furthermore, could a high probability of flooding have been predicted? To address these questions, regional precipitation is analyzed using three dataset sets covering the 1981–2010 time period. It is concluded that the 2010 average May to August (MJJA) rainfall for year 2010 is somewhat greater in magnitude than previous years. However, the rainfall rate of the July deluges, especially in North Pakistan was exceptionally rare as deduced from limited data. The location of the deluges over the mountainous northern part of the country lead to the devastating floods. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 15-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is used to assess whether the rainfall over the flood affected region was predictable. A multi-year analysis shows that Pakistan rainfall is highly predictable out to 6–8 days including rainfall in the summer of 2010. We conclude that if these extended quantitative precipitation forecasts had been available in Pakistan; the high risk of flooding could have been foreseen. If these rainfall forecasts had been coupled to a hydrological model then the high risk of extensive and prolonged flooding could have anticipated and actions taken to mitigate their impact.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 163
On the widespread winter fog in northeastern Pakistan and India
Author: S Hameed, MI Mirza, BM Ghauri
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters,Vol.27 (13), 2000--Pages 1891-1894
Abstract: During the last two winters widespread fog frequently occurred in northeastern India and Pakistan, in a region extending over 1500 km. A particularly severe fog episode lasted from mid-December, 1998 to early January, 1999. The fog caused extensive economic damage and disruptions in transport. We determined concentrations of SO42?, NO3?, and selected trace elements at Lahore, Pakistan during and after the fog event by collecting aerosols on Whatman 41 filters every 12 h. SO42? concentrations of up to 100 µg/m³ were observed during fog. The SO42?/Se ratios and trace element data suggest a distant source of SO42? aerosols, hundreds of kms away. Lahore was downwind of coal-burning in India during the fog. The high concentrations of SO42? observed suggest a more extensive investigation of the chemistry and transport processes in this region is necessary to delineate emission sources and develop control strategies as there are serious likely effects on human health and economy in a region populated by hundreds of millions of people, and on global climate change through direct and indirect forcing.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 40
No sign yet of Himalayan meltdown, Indian report finds
Author: P Bagla
Journal: Science ,Vol.326 (5955), 2011--Pages 924-925
Abstract: Are Himalayan glaciers beating a rapid retreat in the face of global warming? That would seem to be the case, according to a flurry of recent reports by BBC and other mass media. But the picture is more complex—and poses scientific puzzles, according to a review of satellite and ground measurements released by India's Ministry of Environment and Forests earlier this week. The report, by senior glaciologist Vijay Kumar Raina, formerly of the Geological Survey of India, seeks to correct a widely held misimpression based on measurements of a handful of glaciers: that India's 10,000 or so Himalayan glaciers are shrinking rapidly in response to climate change. That's not so, Raina says.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 56
Investigation of rainfall variability for Pakistan
Author: G Naheed, G Rasul
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Meteorology,Vol.7 (14), 2011--Pages
Abstract: Pakistan is an agricultural country mainly dependant on irrigation through the Indus water system. The country has developed the world’s largest contagious canal network. Monsoon precipitation is the lifeline of Pakistan which not only caters the national power supply and standing crops water demands but help gathers the reserves to meet the requirements of low flow period in the next 4-5 months. Future projection of weather indicates towards the dry land agriculture for Pakistan. The purpose of the present study was to investigate and analyze the variability in precipitation occurred in the past times. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to analyze the past time situation and the study covers the period from 1960-2009. The results of the decadal analysis showed that the high value of the variability coefficient has been observed in Balochistan (251%), Sindh (247%) and Punjab (208%) regions. However the annual analysis showed the increasing trend of variability coefficient from North to South in Pakistan. According to the inter seasonal analysis of fifty years data (1960-09) variation in the coefficient of variability was highest in post monsoon and pre monsoon seasons as compared to the winter and monsoon seasons. These analysis showed that forecasting is a challenging job for the forecasters where the variability is prominently high. It revealed in the study that most of the northern areas have safeguarded except in the post monsoon period. While the southern half has been suffered throughout the year in terms of rainfall variability
Keywords:
Citedy By: 11
Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change
Author: FS Syed, W Iqbal, AAB Syed, G Rasul
Journal:  Climate dynamics,Vol.42 (7-8), 2014--Pages 2079-2097
Abstract: The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971–2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071–2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Keywords: Regional climate model RegCM4 PRECIS South-Asia Monsoon Climate change Uncertainty
Citedy By: 31
Emerging meta-organisations and adaptation to global climate change: Evidence from implementing adaptation in Nepal, Pakistan and Ghana
Author: AS Chaudhury, MJ Ventresca, TF Thornton
Journal: Global Environmental Change Volume 38,Vol.38 (), 2016--Pages 243-257
Abstract: As developing countries move from policy to implementing adaptation to climate change, formal operational structures are emerging that exceed the expertise of any one actor. We refer to these arrangements as ‘meta-organisations’ that comprise many autonomous component organisations tackling adaptation. The meta-organisations set standards, define purposes, and specify appropriate means-ends criteria for delivering adaptation. Using empirical data from the three cases, Nepal, Pakistan and Ghana, the study identifies and analyses six attributes of the meta and component organisational structures. We argue that organisational structures are crucial to understanding adaptation, specifying policy and implementation. Our analysis demonstrates that while each country promotes similar objectives, the emerging structures are quite distinct, shaped by country-specific attributes and issues that lead to different outcomes. Nepal’s priority for a formal process has come at the cost of delayed implementation. Pakistan’s devolved approach lacks legitimacy to scale up the process nationally. Ghana’s use of existing decentralised structures and budgets relegates adaptation below other development priorities. These divergent structures arise from the different needs for legitimacy and accountability, and the relative priority attached to adaptation against other needs.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Consistency of local perceptions of climate change in the Kangchenjunga Himalaya landscape
Author: P Chaudhary, S Rai, S Wangdi, A Mao, N Rehman
Journal: Current Science,Vol.101 (4), 2011--Pages 504-513
Abstract: The Himalaya is experiencing rapid climate change that is likely to significantly impact local ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture and human well-being. However, the scientific community has been slow to examine the extent and consequences of climate change. Local communities have been coping with environmental change since millennia. Thus they often have considerable knowledge about environmental change and means to cope with its consequences. We (a) examined the perceptions of local communities about climate change and its impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture and livelihoods in the Kangchenjunga Himalayas region; (b) analysed the consistency of perceptions across geographical regions, and (c) assessed the conformity between local perceptions and scientific evidence. Our study is based on surveys conducted in 576 households, focus group discussions, key informant surveys and direct observations. The results show that people in the Kangchenjunga Himalayas region have considerable knowledge of climate change and its effects on the weather, ecosystems, biodiversity and agriculture. These perceptions are consistent across the region and conform to scientific findings.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
The challenge of climate change and policy response in Pakistan
Author: MA Khan, JA Khan, Z Ali, I Ahmad
Journal: Environmental Earth Sciences,Vol. (), 2016--Pages
Abstract: Climate change is expected to have adverse impact on Pakistan. This is ironical for a country, which ranks 135th in the world in terms of global green house gases (GHG) emissions per capita, but ranks 16th in terms of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change poses a major threat to all dimensions of sustainable development and has widespread impacts across various sectors and ecosystems such as food, water and energy; forests and biodiversity; coastal and marine environment; as well as on the occurrence and intensity of climate related hazards such as floods and drought. It also carries potential for internal and external conflicts. The paper examines the present and potential impact of climate change in Pakistan, and reviews national policies and plans to examine the extent to which climate-related issues have been integrated within these. The paper also discusses adaptation and mitigation measures and identifies the key elements that need to be included in the Climate Change Action Plan of Pakistan and stresses their mainstreaming into the national development policies and plans.
Keywords: Vulnerability Hazards Impacts Climate change policy Mainstreaming Development plans
Citedy By: 0
Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan
Author: M Ahmad, M Nawaz, M Iqbal, S Javed
Journal: MPRA PAPER,Vol. (), 2014--Pages
Abstract: This study, applying Fixed Effect Model (FEM), analyses the impact of climate change on yield of fine and coarse rice in Pakistan using district-level panel data for the period of 19872010. The evidence suggests that climate change significantly affects yield of both types of rice crops. The impact varies across different phenological stages of the crop in magnitude as well as direction. Precipitation forms a statistically significant non-linear relationship with yield for both types of rice. No evidence, however, was found for presence of non-linear temperature effects. Additionally, fertilizer use plays a significant role in enhancing yield in case of Basmati rice only .
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Potentials of hydrogen and nuclear towards global warming mitigation—expansion of an integrated assessment model MARIA and simulations
Author: S Mori, T Saito
Journal: Energy Economics,Vol.26 (4), 2004--Pages 565-578
Abstract: This paper describes an extended version of an integrated assessment model called Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation (MARIA) and how it was applied to assess the global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation policies. The model has been developed to assess the potential contribution of fossil, biomass, nuclear and other energy technologies and land-use changes to future GHG emissions. In this paper, the MARIA model is extended to evaluate a new hydrogen production process through steam–methane reforming at a significantly lower temperature (300–500 °C) than that of conventional steam–methane reforming processes as a liquid fuel supplier under the long-term global warming strategies. Bern simple carbon cycle model is also included in the model to reflect the recent findings in climate science. The simulation results suggest that hydrogen with Fast Breeder Reactors could supply 5–8 GTOE of hydrogen in the second half of the 21st century when climate policy that stabilizes the atmospheric carbon concentration is introduced. Although biomass does not completely replace fossil energy sources, the simulations show that it effectively mitigates the marginal cost of carbon emission
Keywords: Integrated assessment model, Climate change, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Citedy By: 0
The impact of climate change on agriculture in Asia
Author: R Mendelsohn
Journal: Journal of Integrative Agriculture,Vol.13 (4), 2014--Pages 660-665
Abstract: Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in specific locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed crops across the entire continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefficients for Chinese crops. These coefficients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5°C warming but damages of about US\$84 billion with 3°C warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.
Keywords: agriculture, climate change, Asia, Ricardian
Citedy By: 29
Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan
Author: S Ali, D Li, F Congbin, F Khan
Journal: Environmental Research Letters,Vol. (), 2015--Pages
Abstract: This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041–2050 and 2071–2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976–2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071–2100 in contrast with 2041–2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071–2100) in comparison to 2041–2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is larger in winter than in summer, while quantitatively large river flow was projected, particularly during the summer monsoon. Due to high river flow and increase in precipitation in UIB, water availability is likely to be increased in the twenty first century and this may sustain water demands.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 18
Greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems and their contribution to environmental change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan
Author: MM Iqbal, MA Goheer
Journal: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,Vol. (), 2008--Pages
Abstract: There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest (4.126 Tg yr?1) followed by N2O (0.265 Tg yr?1) and CO2 (52.6 Tg yr?1). The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.
Keywords: greenhouse gases agriculture Indus Basin Pakistan
Citedy By: 12
Emerging diseases and ecosystem instability: new threats to public health.
Author: PR Epstein
Journal: American journal of public health,Vol.85 (2), 1995--Pages 168-172
Abstract: Ecologists have begun to describe an environmental distress syndrome, whereby widespread loss of top predators and harsh environmental conditions are encouraging the selection of opportunistic pests and pathogens across a wide taxonomic range of plants and animals. Environmental change and pollutants stress individuals and populations, and this may be reflected in the global resurgence of infectious disease as these stresses cascade through the community assemblages of species. In 1993, the sudden appearance of a virulent, rodent-borne hantavirus in the arid US Southwest accompanied anomalous weather patterns, and a novel Vibrio cholerae variant (O139 Bengal) emerged in Asia where marine ecosystems are experiencing a pandemic of coastal algal blooms, apparently harboring and amplifying the agent. This paper suggests a framework for integrating the surveillance of health outcomes and key reservoir and vector species, with ecological and climatic monitoring.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 221
Climate change and the potential global distribution of Aedes aegypti: spatial modelling using GIS and CLIMEX
Author: HM Khormi, L Kumar
Journal:  Geospatial health,– ,Vol.8 (2), 2014--Pages 405-415
Abstract: We examined the potential added risk posed by global climate change on the dengue vector Aedes aegypti abundance using CLIMEX, a powerful tool for exploring the relationship between the fundamental and realised niche of any species. After calibrating the model using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records, we estimated potential distributions of the mosquito under current and future potential scenarios. The impact of climate change on its potential distribution was assessed with two global climate models, the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and the MIROC-H, run with two potential, future emission scenarios (A1B and A2) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compared today’s climate situation with two arbitrarily chosen future time points (2030 and 2070) to see the impact on the worldwide distribution of A. aegypti. The model for the current global climate indicated favourable areas for the mosquito within its known distribution in tropical and subtropical areas. However, even if much of the tropics and subtropics will continue to be suitable, the climatically favourable areas for A. aegypti globally are projected to contract under the future scenarios produced by these models, while currently unfavourable areas, such as inland Australia, the Arabian Peninsula, southern Iran and some parts of North America may become climatically favourable for this mosquito species. The climate models for the Aedes dengue vector presented here should be useful for management purposes as they can be adapted for decision/making regarding allocation of resources for dengue risk toward areas where risk infection remains and away from areas where climatic suitability is likely to decrease in the future.
Keywords: Aedes aegypti, climate change, CLIMEX, dengue, geographical information system, infection
Citedy By: 43
Analysis of a historical (1981–2010) temperature record of the Punjab province of Pakistan
Author: F Abbas
Journal: Earth Interactions,Vol.17 (15), 2013--Pages
Abstract: Prolonged droughts and uneven monsoons have adversely affected socioeconomic and environmental conditions of Pakistan, especially of the Punjab province. Analysis of historical (1981–2010) daily minimum and maximum temperatures from five cities in semiarid Punjab, Pakistan, was carried out to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in thermal regimes. A total of 13 climate change indices were calculated using daily minimum and maximum temperatures and analyzed for trend using RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of a trend, respectively. Observed trends in selected indices during 1981–2010 suggest an overall warming in the region. Over the analysis period, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold (10th percentile) nights and days has decreased by ?3.94 nights per decade and ?0.61 days per decade, respectively. Occurrence of extreme hot (90th percentile) nights and days has increased by 4.19 nights per decade and 0.92 days per decade, respectively. The number of summer days has increased by almost 3 days per decade on average at four out of the five cities. Multan was the only city where the number of summer days has declined by 5 days per decade. Regionally averaged increase in tropical nights was 8.35 nights per decade. Regional warming will dictate increased crop water requirements in this semiarid region agriculture, which is already under water-scarce conditions, especially in the Faisalabad district, where saline groundwater is not suitable for crops.
Keywords: Punjab; Pakistan; RClimDex; Regional warming; Semiarid; Temperature indices
Citedy By: 15
A study of aerosol properties over Lahore (Pakistan) by using AERONET data
Author: M Ali, S Tariq, K Mahmood, A Daud, A Batool
Journal: Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,Vol.50 (2), 2014--Pages 153-162
Abstract: It is well established that aerosols affect the climate in a variety of ways. In order to understand these effects, we require an insight into the properties of aerosols. In this paper we present a study of aerosol properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) over mega city of Lahore (Pakistan). The data from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) have been used for the period December 2009 to October 2011. The seasonal average values of AOD, asymmetry parameter (ASY) and volume size distribution in coarse mode were observed to be highest in summer. On the other hand, the average values of Angstrom exponent (AE) and imaginary part of refractive index (RI) were found to be maximum in winter. The average value of real part of RI was found to be higher in spring than in all other seasons. The SSA exhibited an increasing trend with wavelength in the range 440 nm–1020 nm in spring, summer and fall indicating the dominance of coarse particles (usually dust). However, a decreasing trend was found in winter in the range 675 nm–1020 nm pointing towards the dominance of biomass and urban/industrial aerosols. As far as aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) is concerned, we have found that during the spring season ARF was lowest at the surface of Earth and highest at top of the atmosphere (TOA). This indicates that the atmosphere was warmer in spring than in all the remaining seasons
Keywords: Aeronet aerosol properties Lahore
Citedy By: 27
The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and GDP: A recent evidence from Pakistan
Journal: Cogent,Vol.3 (1), 2016--Pages
Abstract: In this study an attempt was made to investigate carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption (EC), GDP, and electricity production from oil, coal and natural gas, recent evidence from Pakistan by employing a time series data spanning from 1971 to 2013. The study employed the vector error correction model to estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship. There was evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship running from EC, electricity production from coal, electricity production from natural gas, electricity production from oil and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. The policy implication of the VEC model means that a 1% increase in energy production from oil in Pakistan will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 13.7% in the long-run. There was evidence of a unidirectional causality running from EC to carbon dioxide emissions, electricity production from natural gas to EC, EC to electricity production from oil, electricity production from natural gas to GDP and GDP to electricity production from oil. Evidence from the generalized impulse-response analysis shows that three components contribute to carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan, which include EC, energy production from gas and GDP.
Keywords: carbon dioxide emission, energy consumption, economic
Citedy By: 18
The Environment and Climate Change Outlook of Pakistan
Author:
Journal: UNEP & GOP,Vol. (), 2013--Pages
Abstract: The Environment and Climate Change Outlook of Pakistan is a review of the environmental conditions, the impacts of climate change and the status of national response to the changing situation in the country. Its objective is to provide a general evaluation of the quality of environment and emerging sustainable development trends in the country. While providing data and information on environmental conditions and trends and emerging problems, particularly climate change, the document also analyses critically the policy response to these issues in the country. It also illustrates successful initiatives and best practices, some of which may be replicated. Finally, the report identifies key challenges and areas in which urgent action is needed. The principal challenge identified is to promote growth in the country while safeguarding natural resources, promoting eco-efficiency, and enhancing public participation while empowering communities to become custodians of the environment. It also notes that although Pakistan contributes very little to GHG emissions, yet the country faces the worst environmental challenge in the form of climate change and dealing with it is no longer an option for the country; it has become an unavoidable reality in the wake of increasing symptoms exhibited through cataclysmic floods and droughts. The potential impacts of climate change identified are wide-ranging and are likely to affect all dimensions of development with impacts across many sectors and ecosystems. This report has two sections. The first section is the Executive Summary while the second is the main report. The main report has been divided into four related parts. The content of each of these parts is summarized as follows:
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Part Four comprises two chapters Policy Response and Challenges and Outlook. The first highlights? the response to the problems of environment by various actors including the government
Author:  industry and private sector as well as NGOs. The next chapter examines projected trends for the environment
Journal:  and discusses the future challenges and outlook of environment and climate change in the country.,Vol. (), --Pages
Abstract:
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Technical Report on Karachi Heat wave June 2015
Author: Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Dr. Ghulam Rasul, Ahmad Kamal, Munir Ahmad Mangrio and Shahbaz Mahmood
Journal: Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Climate Change,Vol. (), 2015--Pages
Abstract: Heat-wave is a prevalent climate related natural hazard. Heat-waves are understood as unusual period of hot and humid or hot and dry conditions which prevail from three to five days during a summer season. There is no universally accepted definition of heat-wave phenomenon; however, for this report we refer to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) definition which states that “a heat-wave occurs when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Improved hydrological projections and reservoir management in the Upper Indus Basin under the changing climate:
Author: Khan, F., Pilz, J., & Shaukat Ali.
Journal: Water and Environment Journal,Vol.31 (2), 2017--Pages 235-244
Abstract: The availability of water resources plays an important role for the economy of a country. The nexus of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked and of particular importance in the uncertain environment of developing countries. In Pakistan, agriculture contributes 25 percent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Indus River contributes 44 percent of the available water to irrigation of crops and the ecosystem, and currently produces 5,112 Megawatt (MW) electricity, with a potential to produce 38,602 MW electricity. This makes it important to investigate the status of water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under existing emission scenarios. In this study, the future availability of water is projected for the Indus River under the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. A meta-analysis has been conducted to present a combined picture by combining the results from the emission scenarios. Our meta-analysis shows higher con?dence in RCPs projections. The results show that su?cient water will be available in the Indus River that will meet the demands of water in future but there will be scarcity of water in some months under each scenario. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, this scarcity can be resolved.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Pakistan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (Pak-Indc)
Author:
Journal: Govt. of Pakistan,Vol. (), 2016--Pages
Abstract: Pakistan reiterates its commitment and obligations towards the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement, and the objective to limit the average global temperature increase to 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Centigrade. It will continue to play a meaningful role in global efforts towards achieving this goal. As explained in the Pak-INDC, a number of mitigation and adaptation measures and actions are already being undertaken with domestic resources. These measures and actions can be intensified in coming years with expected availability of international climate finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity building.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation Barrier Analysis and Enabling Framework
Author: Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, : Muhammed Irfan Tariq,
Journal: Govt. of Pakistan,Vol. (), 2016--Pages
Abstract: Climate change is one of the most daunting threats that humankind faces today. For Pakistan, it is a colossal challenge to achieve its sustainable development goals without compromising on its socio-economic development needs. Due to its exposure to the recurrent episodes of drought, flooding, heatwaves, and glacial lake outburst floods in the past few decades, the country is consistently ranked by multiple climate change vulnerability indices as being one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Building resilience and adaptation to climate change is becoming indispensible for Pakistan. Fortunately, environmentally sound technologies are gaining a high priority in sustainable development policy dialogue and implementing frameworks. Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) is one of the critical steps towards identifying and assessing climate change adaptation challenges for Pakistan in order to align its adaptation needs and opportunities with goals and objectives of its sustainable development. As a climate change adaptation tool this TNA would help the country identify the needs for new equipment, techniques, practical knowledge and skills, which are necessary to successfully pursue climate resilient development. This report on ‘Barrier Analysis & Enabling Framework’ of technology needs assessment is the part of TNA project outputs, funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and implemented by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the UNEP DTU Partnership in collaboration with Asian Institute of Technology (AIT). The TNA process in Pakistan is being undertaken since June 2015, with the Ministry of Climate Change in lead. This report identifies and provides a list of barriers and enabling measures for adoption of prioritized adaptation technologies in climate vulnerable water and agriculture sectors of Pakistan. The report is the result of a fully country driven, participatory process. Views and information in this report is the product of extensive discussions with technology expert team and stakeholders.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Prediction of summer rainfall in Pakistan from global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure:
Author: Adnan, M., Rehman, N., Shaukat Ali, Mehmood, S., Mir, K. A., Khan, A. A., & Khalid, B.
Journal: Weather,Vol.72 (3), 2017--Pages 76-84
Abstract: Agriculture contributes around a quarter to Pakistan's economy and is closely linked with the variability of monsoon rainfall. The prediction of monsoon rains with sufficient lead time has immense importance for the planning and management of water resources and agriculture. In this study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) methods are employed to predict monsoon rainfall, and their performances are compared for June–September (JJAS) for the period 1961–2014 over the monsoon region of Pakistan. Rainfall data of Meteorological stations are used as the predictand. In the MLR method, predictors are carried out from sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets. The PCR method first calculates principal components (PCs) from SLP and SST data, and these PCs are then combined with the regression technique and used as predictors. The performance of both models is tested using statistical measures such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), bias and the correlation coefficient to evaluate the skill of the forecast. The agreement between actual and predicted rainfall data provides evidence for reasonably accurate predictions from both methods. The MLR and PCR models explained 84.6 and 92.2% of the variation of data, and the multiple correlation coefficients are 0.92 and 0.96 respectively. The correlation coefficient for the verification period (2005–2014) is 0.73 for MLR and 0.89 for PCR. The values of mean bias, MAE and RMSE are ?5.5, 20.0 and 25.1mm for MLR, and ?0.42, 16.2 and 16.6mm for PCR, respectively. The results indicate that the PCR model forecast is slightly better than that of the MLR model.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Analysis of baseline and alternative air quality scenarios for Pakistan: an integrated approach
Author: Kaleem Anwar Mir, Pallav Purohit, Gary A. Goldstein, and Rajasekhar Balasubramanian.
Journal: Environmental Science and Pollution ,Vol. (), 2016--Pages
Abstract: This study aims to assess the current and future air pollution and associated health impacts in Pakistan. In this study, the Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) is used to assess current and future energy consumption in Pakistan. To assess air pollution levels and associated health impacts, we used the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model. A linkage has been established between both the models to feed the energy outputs from Pak-IEM into GAINS for exploring different scenarios. Mainly, the emissions of three air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) as well as the associated health impacts of increased emissions are assessed. Baseline emission scenario (BES) shows a growth in emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 by a factor of 2.4, 2.2, and 2.5 between 2007 and 2030. In terms of health impacts, by 2030, annual mean concentrations of fine particles (PM2.5) would increase to more than 150 ?g/m3 in some parts of Punjab region of Pakistan, for which loss in statistical life expectancy is calculated to increase from 30 to 60 months in 2007 up to 60-100 months in 2030 on average.
Keywords: Abatement policies; Air pollution; Health impact; Scenario analysis
Citedy By: 0
Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan,
Author: Shaukat Ali, Dan Li, Fu Congbin and Firdos Khan,
Journal: Environmental Research Letters,Vol.10 (1), 2015--Pages
Abstract: This study is based on both the recent and the predicted twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over the mountainous Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which are influenced by snow and glacier melting. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) data for the periods 1976–2005, 2006–2035, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; and Regional Climate Model (RegCM) data for the periods of 2041–2050 and 2071–2080 with RCP8.5 are used for climatic projection and, after bias correction, the same data are used as an input to the University of British Columbia (UBC) hydrological model for river flow projections. The projections of all of the future periods were compared with the results of 1976–2005 and with each other. Projections of future changes show a consistent increase in air temperature and precipitation. However, temperature and precipitation increase is relatively slow during 2071–2100 in contrast with 2041–2070. Northern parts are more likely to experience an increase in precipitation and temperature in comparison to the southern parts. A higher increase in temperature is projected during spring and winter over southern parts and during summer over northern parts. Moreover, the increase in minimum temperature is larger in both scenarios for all future periods. Future river flow is projected by both models to increase in the twenty first century (CCAM and RegCM) in both scenarios. However, the rate of increase is larger during the first half while it is relatively small in the second half of the twenty first century in RCP4.5. The possible reason for high river flow during the first half of the twenty first century is the large increase in temperature, which may cause faster melting of snow, while in the last half of the century there is a decreasing trend in river flow, precipitation, and temperature (2071–2100) in comparison to 2041–2070 for RCP4.5. Generally, for all future periods, the percentage of increased river flow is larger in winter than in summer, while quantitatively large river flow was projected, particularly during the summer monsoon. Due to high river flow and increase in precipitation in UIB, water availability is likely to be increased in the twenty first century and this may sustain water demands.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Performance of convective parameterization schemes in Asia using RegCM: Simulations in three typical regions for the period 1998-2002
Author: Shaukat Ali, Dan Li, Fu Congbin and Yang Yang,
Journal: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,Vol.32 (5), 2015--Pages 715-730
Abstract: This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the Regional Climate Model (version 4.3) (RegCM4.3) over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in RegCM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean (ELGO) scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS (Grell/Emanuel) over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d?1 and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan (NP). In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.
Keywords: regional climate models (RCM), RegCM4,  Tiedtke scheme,  convective parameterization scheme, (CPS) topography,  seasonality
Citedy By: 0
Coupling of Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Hydrological Model,
Author: Shaukat Ali, Dan Li, Fu Congbin, Firdos Khan and Yang Yang
Journal: Amur-Okhotsk Consortium,Vol. (), 2014--Pages
Abstract: This study presents the coupling of REGional Climate Model (RegCM) and University of British Columbia (UBC) Hydrological Model. For validation and calibration the sensitivity of different parameters is analyzed for RegCM and UBC models. Our results for RegCM validation found that Tiedtke ismore realistic for mean state and seasonal variation of precipitation. Taylor diagrams also show that Tiedtke scheme has higher correlation (0.6~0.85) and standardized deviation close to one. Furthermore, Tiedtke shows closer agreement with TRMM and APHRO for seasonal variation of precipitation. Moreover, RegCM output needs bias correction being used for hydrological impact studies. The output of RegCM is first bias-corrected and then used as input to UBC model. Future runoff ismore in summer with 40% increase for 2041-2050 and 65% increase for 2071-2080. Therefore, the coupling technique show better results over the region of our study where there is lack of observation station data and can be usedwith more improvements.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Food Security and Food Production Systems
Author: Porter, J.R., L. Xie, A. Challinor, K. Cochrane, S.M. Howden, M.M. Iqbal, D.B. Lobell and M.I. Travasso,
Journal: Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom, ,Vol. (), 2014--Pages 485-533
Abstract: The effects of climate change on crop and terrestrial food production are evident in several regions of the world. Negative impacts of climate trends have been more common than positive ones. Positive trends are evident in some high latitude regions. Since AR4, there have been several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions, indicating a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes, among other factors. Several of these climate extremes were made more likely as the result of anthropogenic emissions. Climate trends are affecting the abundance and distribution of harvested aquatic species, both freshwater and marine, and aquaculture production systems in different parts of the world. These are expected to continue with negative impacts on nutrition and food security for especially vulnerable people, particularly in some tropical developing countries, but with benefits in other regions that become more favorable for aquatic food production. Studies have documented a large negative sensitivity of crop yields to extreme daytime temperatures around 30°C. These sensitivities have been identified for several crops and regions and exist throughout the growing season. Several studies report that temperature trends are important for determining both past and future impacts of climate change on crop yields at sub-continental to global scales At scales of individual countries or smaller, precipitation projections remain important but uncertain factors for assessing future impacts. All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilization, and price stability. There remains limited quantitative understanding of how non-production elements of food security will be affected, and of the adaptation possibilities in these domains. Nutritional quality of food and fodder, including protein and micronutrients, is negatively affected by elevated CO2, but these effects may be counteracted by effects of other aspects of climate change. For the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, climate change without adaptation will negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more above late-20th-century levels, although individual locations may benefit. Projected impacts vary across crops and regions and adaptation scenarios, with about 10% of projections for the period 2030–2049 showing yield gains of more than 10% and about 10% of projections showing yield losses of more than 25%, compared to the late 20th century. After 2050, the risk of more severe impacts increases. Crop production is consistently and negatively affected by climate change in the future in low-latitude countries, while climate change may have positive or negative effects in northern latitudes. Climate change will increase progressively the inter-annual variability of crop yields in many regions.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Climate Variability and its Impacts on Water Resources in Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios,
Journal: International Journal of Global Warming ,Vol. (), 2015--Pages
Abstract: The output of a regional climate model (RCM), providing regional climate for impact studies (PRECIS), is used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at the Tarbela Reservoir on the Indus River. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation are investigated for possible climate change in the region. The hydrological model was calibrated for the 1995–2004 period and validated for the 1990–1994 period with almost 90% efficiencies. The projections of inflow to the Tarbela Reservoir show that there is an overall increase of 59.42% and 34.27% to the Tarbela Reservoir during the period of 2040–2069 under the A2 and the B2 scenarios, respectively. There will be much more water available in the future, with the highest inflow and comparatively more water shortage noted in the 2020s under the A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climates on the operation of Tarbela Dam are investigated.
Keywords: Climate variability, water resources, Indus basin, regional climate model, hydrological model
Citedy By: 0
Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: the Upper Indus Basin
Author: N Forsythe, HJ Fowler, S Blenkinsop, A Burton, CG Kilsby, DR Archer, C Harpham, Hashmi, M. Z.
Journal: Journal of Hydrology,Vol. (), --Pages
Abstract: Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961–1990) demonstrated the models’ skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ?0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Evaluation of weather research and forecasting model for the assessment of wind resource over Gharo, Pakistan
Journal: International Journal of Climatology ,Vol.35 (8), 2015--Pages 1821-1832
Abstract: Weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is the state?of?the?art mesoscale model that could be used as a guideline to effectively assess the wind resource of Gharo wind station lying in the coastal belt of Pakistan. The anemometer heights of 10 and 30 m for the year 2005 have been used to study the wind profile of the region for summer (June, July, August, September) and winter (December, January, February, March). The study uses an innovative approach for model comparisons, i.e. an eta?half level is added in the model on 60 m height and is interpolated to 30 m height by using well known power law. This is done by studying the diurnal variation of wind shear for the whole year of 2005 in order to reduce maximum possible interpolation error. For both seasons, the error measures of mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 30 m interpolated data were found lower than 10 m height data with increased correlation (r). A bias correction methodology (best easy systematic estimator) was further applied over the model output showing a significant improvement toward MBE, MAE and RMSE reduction, i.e. up to 99%, 73% and 68% on 10 m height and 99%, 51% and 46% on 30 m height. Errors were reduced more for summer than winter. The selected bias correction methodology was thus found to be highly applicable for both model heights. The wind energy assessment of Gharo wind station from the corrected model simulation showed summer having more potential for wind energy than winter with an estimated energy of up to 1000 MWh.
Keywords:
Citedy By: 0
Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia
Author:  Sheikh, M.M., N. Manzoor, J. Ashraf, M. Adnan, D. Collins, S. Hameed, M.J. Manton, A.U. Ahmad, S.K. Baidya, H.P. Borganokar, N. Islam, D. Jayasinghearachchi, D.R. Kothawale, K.H.M.S. Premlal, J.V. Revadikar and M.I. Shrestha
Journal: International Journal of Climatology,Vol.35 (7), 2015--Pages 1625-1637
Abstract: Over the last few decades, weather and climate extremes have become a major focus of researchers, the media and general public due to their damaging effects on human society and infrastructure. Trends in indices of climate extremes are studied for the South Asian region using high?quality records of daily temperature and precipitation observations. Data records from 210 (265) temperature (precipitation) observation stations are analysed over the period 1971–2000 (1961–2000). Spatial maps of station trends, time series of regional averages and frequency distribution analysis form the basis of this study. Due to the highly diverse geography of the South Asian region, the results are also described for some specific regions, such as the island of Sri Lanka; the tropical region (excluding Sri Lanka); the Greater Himalayas above 35°N, the Eastern Himalayas (Nepal) and the Thar Desert. Generally, changes in the frequency of temperature extremes over South Asia are what one would expect in a warming world; warm extremes have become more common and cold extremes less common. The warming influence is greater in the Eastern Himalayas compared with that in the Greater Himalayas. The Thar Desert also shows enhanced warming, but increases are mostly less than in the Eastern Himalayas. Changes in the indices of extreme precipitation are more mixed than those of temperature, with spatially coherent changes evident only at relatively small scales. Nevertheless, most extreme precipitation indices show increases in the South Asia average, consistent with globally averaged results. The indices trends are further studied in the context of Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) over the region. Countries falling within the ABC hotspot namely Indo?Gangetic Plain (IGP) have shown a different behaviour on the trends of extreme indices compared with the parts outside this hotspot. IGP has increased temperature and decreased rainfall and tally closely with the actual trends.
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A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high-resolution rainfall intensities
Author: Muhammad Rehan Anis and Michael Rode
Journal: Hydrological Processes,Vol.29 (6), 2015--Pages 1119-1128
Abstract: Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high?resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long?term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50?mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (HyetosCat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled HyetosCat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10?min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10?min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38?mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82?mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self?similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden.
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Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model,
Author: Zhu, T., C. Ringler, M.M. Iqbal, T.B. Sulser and M.A. Goheer,
Journal: Water International,Vol.38 (5), 2013--Pages 651-669
Abstract: Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from –12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food.
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Statistically Downscaled Probabilistic Multi-model Ensemble Projections of Precipitation Change in a Watershed
Author: Hashmi M. Z., A. Y. Shamseldin and B.W. Melville
Journal: Hydrological Processes,Vol.27 (7), 2013--Pages 1021-1032
Abstract: This paper presents the development of a probabilistic multi?model ensemble of statistically downscaled future projections of precipitation of a watershed in New Zealand. Climate change research based on the point estimates of a single model is considered less reliable for decision making, and multiple realizations of a single model or outputs from multiple models are often preferred for such purposes. Similarly, a probabilistic approach is preferable over deterministic point estimates. In the area of statistical downscaling, no single technique is considered a universal solution. This is due to the fact that each of these techniques has some weaknesses, owing to its basic working principles. Moreover, watershed scale precipitation downscaling is quite challenging and is more prone to uncertainty issues than downscaling of other climatological variables. So, multi?model statistical downscaling studies based on a probabilistic approach are required. In the current paper, results from the three well?reputed statistical downscaling methods are used to develop a Bayesian weighted multi?model ensemble. The three members of the downscaling ensemble of this study belong to the following three broad categories of statistical downscaling methods: (1) multiple linear regression, (2) multiple non?linear regression, and (3) stochastic weather generator. The results obtained in this study show that the new strategy adopted here is promising because of many advantages it offers, e.g. it combines the outputs of multiple statistical downscaling methods, provides probabilistic downscaled climate change projections and enables the quantification of uncertainty in these projections. This will encourage any future attempts for combining the results of multiple statistical downscaling methods
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Remote-sensing assessment of glacier fluctuations in the Hindu Raj, Pakistan
Author: Mehmet A. Sarikya , Michael P. Bishop , John F. Shroder and Ghazanfar Ali,
Journal: International Journal of Remote Sensing,Vol. (), 2013--Pages 3968-3985
Abstract: Space-based assessments of glaciers across the Himalayas indicate that there is a spatial variation in glacier fluctuations due to variations in local topography, regional climate, and ice-flow dynamics. Unfortunately, limited information is available on glacier fluctuations in northern Pakistan. In this work, we quantify the glacier terminus variations in the Hindu Raj region of Pakistan, where we used Landsat and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) time-series data for 1972, 1989, 1999, and 2007. Eighty-five mountain glaciers of various sizes, orientations, and altitudes were sampled. Our results show that most of the glaciers (70.6%) retreated over the last four decades, although some glaciers advanced (17.6%) or exhibited no detectable change in terminus position (11.8%). Larger glaciers with lower terminus altitudes exhibited greater retreat distances than smaller high-altitude glaciers. Long-term climate data analysis reveals that the recession of glaciers appears to be associated with the rising of summer temperatures in the Hindu Raj. Our results support a spatial trend of an increase in shrinking glaciers towards the western portion of northern Pakistan, with a greater frequency of advancing glaciers towards the east.
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Impact of altitude and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over South Asia during 1971-2000
Author:
Journal: Int. J. Climatol. ,Vol.33 (1), 2012--Pages 199-209
Abstract: South Asia covers more than 30° of latitude with weather observation stations situated from 6°N at Galle, Sri Lanka, to 36°N at Chitral in Pakistan. Moreover, the South Asian station network ranges in altitude from sea level to nearly 4000 m above sea level. This paper uses time series of 11 objectively defined indices of daily temperature extremes at 197 stations in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to examine the possible impacts of elevation and latitude on changes in temperature extremes over the period of 1971–2000. Trends in extreme indices are consistent with general warming only at low altitudes and latitudes. Stations at high altitudes and latitudes show both positive and negative trends in extreme temperature indices. As a notable example, the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has been known to decrease in most parts of the globe, has increasing trends over many high altitude stations in South Asia. Trends in extreme temperature indices at stations in South Asia higher than 2000 m above sea level are mostly in disagreement with those reported over the Tibetan Plateau. Observed trends at low altitude locations in South Asia suggest that these sites can generally expect future changes in temperature extremes that are consistent with broad?scale warming. High?elevation sites appear to be more influenced by local factors and, hence, future changes in temperature extremes may be less predictable for these locations.
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Global Environmental Changes in South Asia: A Regional Perspective
Author: Mitra, A.P., Sharma, C. (Eds.)
Journal: Capital Publishing Company,Vol. (), --Pages 2010
Abstract: The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC having clinched in 2007 the evidence of global warming on account of anthropogenic activities, backed with scientific data gathered and analyzed globally, has made it mandatory world over to focus efforts on delineation of the anticipated adverse impacts of global warming on regional temperature and moisture regimes and the linked hydrologic, climatic and biospheric processes. First and foremost is the requirement to understand vulnerability to food and livelihood security in various ecosystems—on mainland, mid-range and high mountains as well as coastal areas including CEZs. The projected global temperature rise of the order of about two degrees or more and further rise at a decadal rate of o around 0. 2 C is sufficient to make grievous changes in sea surface level and submerge many low lying coastal areas around the world thereby possibly causing unprecedented losses to human habitat and livelihood in the coming years. A rise in climate variability is also becoming increasingly evident with potential direct impact on agricultural performance, on water accessibility and on weather extremes. Developing countries due to their poor infrastructure, limited resources and large impoverished population are likely to face more intense and wi- spread adverse impact of climate change than the developed world and also have limited adaptation capacity.
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agro-Ecosystems and their contribution to environmental change in the Indus Basin of Pakistan,
Author: M. Mohsin Iqbal and M. Arif Goheer,
Journal: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,Vol.25 (6), 2008--Pages 1043-4052
Abstract: There is growing concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been responsible for global warming through their effect on radiation balance and temperature. The magnitude of emissions and the relative importance of different sources vary widely, regionally and locally. The Indus Basin of Pakistan is the food basket of the country and agricultural activities are vulnerable to the effects of global warming due to accelerated emissions of GHGs. Many developments have taken place in the agricultural sector of Pakistan in recent decades in the background of the changing role of the government and the encouragement of the private sector for investment in new ventures. These interventions have considerable GHG emission potential. Unfortunately, no published information is currently available on GHG concentrations in the Indus Basin to assess their magnitude and emission trends. The present study is an attempt to estimate GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions arising from different agro-ecosystems of Indus Basin. The GHGs were estimated mostly using the IPCC Guidelines and data from the published literature. The results showed that CH4 emissions were the highest (4.126 Tg yr?1) followed by N2O (0.265 Tg yr?1) and CO2 (52.6 Tg yr?1). The sources of CH4 are enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and cultivation of other crops. N2O is formed by microbial denitrification of NO3 produced from applied fertilizer-N on cropped soils or by mineralization of native organic matter on fallow soils. CO2 is formed by the burning of plant residue and by soil respiration due to the decomposition of soil organic matter.
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Hydrometeorology of Floods and Droughts in South Asia A Brief Appraisal,
Author: S. Nandargi, O.N. Dhar, M.M.Q. Mirza, Brenna Enright and M. Munir Sheikh, published by APN, Japan, START and Fred J Hansen
Journal: Climate and Water Resources in South Asia: Vulnerability and Adaptation”, Institute for World Peace (2007),Vol. (), 2007--Pages
Abstract: Flooding is a common event in South Asia. In fact, it has been said that after Bangladesh, India is the worst flood affected country in the world (Agarwal and Narayan). It is possible for extreme floods to inundate up to approximately 10 million hectares or nearly 70 percent of Bangladesh. By contrast, about 40 million hectares or nearly 12.5 percent of India is flood prone. Different types and extents of flooding occur in different regions of the subcontinent.
Keywords: Monsoon Season United Nations Environment Program India Meteorological Department World Meteorological Organization Hydrological Drought
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Regional Climate Modeling for the Developing World: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET,
Author: Jeremy S. Pal, Filippo Giorgi, M. Ashfaq, Faisal S. Syed,
Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,Vol. (), 2007--Pages 1396-1409
Abstract: Regional climate models are important research tools available to scientists around the world, including in economically developing nations (EDNs). The Earth Systems Physics (ESP) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) maintains and distributes a state-of-the-science regional climate model called the ICTP Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3), which is currently being used by a large research community for a diverse range of climate-related studies. The RegCM3 is the central, but not only, tool of the ICTP-maintained Regional Climate Research Network (RegCNET) aimed at creating south–south and north–south scientific interactions on the topic of climate and associated impacts research and modeling. In this paper, RegCNET, RegCM3, and illustrative results from RegCM3 benchmark simulations applied over south Asia, Africa, and South America are presented. It is shown that RegCM3 performs reasonably well over these regions and is therefore useful for climate studies in EDNs.
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Prospects for Wheat Production under Changing Climate in Mountain Areas of Pakistan â€“ An Econometric Analysis
Author: Syed Sajidn Hussain, Muhammad Mudasser
Journal: Agricultural Systems,Vol.94 (), 2007--Pages 494-501
Abstract: We assess potential future impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Swat and Chitral districts of Pakistan, mountainous areaswith average altitudes of 960 and 1500 m above sea level, respectively. Using past climate data (1976–2000) to track temperature trendsin both study districts, we ?nd that increased temperatures correspond to an increase in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and a decrease in Growing Season Length (GSL). Chitral district shows a stronger decline in season length than Swat district. Compared with the esti-mated optimum level of 157 days, the 25 year average GSL for the dominant varieties is estimated to be 156 days in Swat districtand 195 days in Chitral district. Future increases in temperature of 1.5 and 3 ? C are likely to cause wheat yields to decline (by 7%and 24% respectively) in Swat district and increase (by 14% and 23% respectively) in Chitral district. Future increases in precipitationof 5–15% during the growing season show a negligible impact on wheat yield.Development and dissemination of short duration varieties, which can withstand the climatic anomalies expected in the future, shouldbe given priority in the mountain region. More recent High Yielding Varieties (HYV) of the warmer plain areas should also be tested andintroduced in the mountain areas because the expected future increases in temperatures caused by global warming would render thesevarieties suitable for the mountain areas.
Keywords: Climate change impact; Wheat yield; Mountain areas; Growing season length; Transcendental model; Chitral; Swat; Pakistan
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Effect of Remote Forcings on the Winter Precipitation of Central Southwest Asia
Author: Faisal S. Syed, Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, M. P. King,
Journal: Observations, Theoretical and Applied Climatology,Vol.86 (1-4), 2006--Pages 147-160
Abstract: We investigate the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on winter precipitation in Central Southwest Asia (CSWA) using an analysis of available observed climate data. The analysis is based on correlations, composites and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) performed using the gridded dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and station data for the region. We find that both the NAO and ENSO affect climate over the region. In particular a positive precipitation anomaly is typically found in correspondence of the positive NAO phase and warm ENSO phase over a sub-region encompassing northern Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and southern Uzbekistan. This conclusion is supported by a consistency across the different analysis methods and observation datasets employed in our study. A physical mechanism for such effect is proposed, by which western disturbances are intensified over the region as they encounter a low pressure trough, which is a dominant feature during positive NAO and warm ENSO conditions. Our results give encouraging indications towards the development of statistically-based prediction tools for winter precipitation over the CSWA region.
Keywords: Singular Value Decomposition,  North Atlantic, Oscillation,  Winter Precipitation,  Southern Oscillation Index,  Climatic Research Unit
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Food Security in the Context of Climate Change In Pakistan
Author: Anum Tariq, Nazia Tabasam, Khuda Bakhsh, M. Asfaq, Sarfraz Hassan
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences ,Vol.8 (2), 2014--Pages 540-550
Abstract: The present study determines the impact of climate change on wheat production along with its per capita availability. The study is different from previous studies as it considers the irrigated and rain-fed regions of the Punjab province. Separate production functions are used for the irrigated and rain-fed regions. Tests for determining normality, linearity, autocorrelation and multi-collinearity are also applied. Results show that in the irrigated region, rising maximum temperature during January and November has negative effect, whereas variables such as wheat area, minimum temperature during November and March are positively related with wheat production. Considering the rain-fed region, minimum temperature during February and November has significant impact on wheat production whereas rainfall in the month of March is negatively related with wheat production. Three different scenarios used to project future impact of temperature and rainfall on wheat indicate a decline in future per capita availability of wheat as a result of climate change, in addition to rising population in Pakistani Punjab. Considering an increase in temperature by 3oC in 2050, per capita availability of wheat would be only 84 kg per annum compared to 198 kg per annum in 2012. So adaptation to climate change in the forms of new varieties and better management practices would lessen the impact of climate change.
Keywords: temperature, precipitation, food security, irrigated region, rain-fed, Punjab.
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Climate Change Implications for Food Security; Pakistan Perspective
Author: Ghani A and Muhammad A
Journal: Agricultural Research & Technology,Vol.7 (4), 2017--Pages
Abstract: The agro based economy of Pakistan has largely been impacted by climate change induced floods and droughts. Despite negligible contributor to climate issues, Pakistan is at the fore front of climate change induced hazards, which challenges its food security. Unfortunately, there is lack of national and international focus on climate change induced risks mitigation and adaptation practices in Pakistan. Importantly, agricultural production in Pakistan has both regional and global implications, thus needs emergency measures for ensuring agricultural sustainability. There is need to conserve the available water through improved rainwater harvesting, increased water productivity and increased irrigation efficiency on farms. Sustainable watershed management practices for controlling erosion, sedimentation and increasing surface storage and groundwater recharge needs to be pursued through larger national and international spending. Capacity building of stake holders can be helpful in promoting sustainable agriculture and greater community livelihood and resilience to climate change in the country
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